Dozier Trade Discussion Thread

[Squirrel]

If the Cardinals went with this false report, the negotiation power may have switched to the Twins. Now that they have completely denied it, it feels like all the power is in the Dodgers' hand. 

And whatever held up the negotiations before, if I were the Dodgers knowing they're the only ones in on Dozier, I'd say "You know that 3rd or 4th piece we've been talking about? Never mind about that. You can have De Leon / 2nd piece. Take it or leave it."

 

And I'd leave it.

[Mike Sixel]

 

And I'd leave it.

 

And then slow down the rebuild. Pride is silly. They need to get some prospects.

[Squirrel]

I think fans tend to exaggerate the extent to which teams do this. Sure, teams try to gain a negotiating edge, but if we fans can tell what is going on, how much of an edge are they really gaining with these ploys? It's not like the Dodgers are going to read Doogie's unspecific report of St Louis interest and suddenly add a significant piece to their offer. In fact, it could backfire more often than not -- it may have been better for the Twins to keep St Louis as merely a potential future partner, rather than one who has already had fruitless dialogue with the Twins.

Meh, I don't really care. It was obvious that whatever has been offered ... and we do NOT know for sure what that is beyond rumors and speculations ... wasn't enough for the Twins to pull the trigger or they would have by now. If this ploy worked, then good for the Twins. If it didn't, we were still where we are ... no closer to a deal than before.

[gunnarthor]

 

If the Cardinals went with this false report, the negotiation power may have switched to the Twins. Now that they have completely denied it, it feels like all the power is in the Dodgers' hand. 
 

I'm not sure it's really changed the power structure of the deal.  Twins want X, Dodgers will give up Y.  That hasn't changed.  Dodgers want Dozier and the other possibilities - Forsythe/Kinsler - have their own problems.  Dodgers know that Dozier fixes all their major problems - they were only 7th in the NL in scoring - and he comes cheap.  He's literally a perfect fit for them.  Twins know that, too.  So I do expect the teams will come to an agreement but maybe it'll need ownership on one side to break the impasse.  

[Squirrel]

And then slow down the rebuild. Pride is silly. They need to get some prospects.

I have never disagreed with that, nor with using Dozier as the chip. But getting 'some' prospects is a whole lot different than getting the right ones and the ones who will help us down the road. It makes no sense to make a trade that doesn't make you a better team in the long run. That's where we all differ. I think Dozier is worth a lot and I don't want him traded for less than he is worth. Another area of disagreement between fans ... just what is he worth. But it still makes no sense to trade him for chips that don't work out, that is why you maximize the chips you want in return because who knows what they will do and you hope for one or two to actually work to make the trade worthwhile.

[drjim]

And I'd leave it.

If they aren't getting what they want I'd leave it too. I suspect the Dodgers aren't changing their offer.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I have never disagreed with that, nor with using Dozier as the chip. But getting 'some' prospects is a whole lot different than getting the right ones and the ones who will help us down the road. It makes no sense to make a trade that doesn't make you a better team in the long run. That's where we all differ. I think Dozier is worth a lot and I don't want him traded for less than he is worth. Another area of disagreement between fans ... just what is he worth. But it still makes no sense to trade him for chips that don't work out, that is why you maximize the chips you want in return because who knows what they will do and you hope for one or two to actually work to make the trade worthwhile.

 

That's fair. I've never said give him away for nothing, or for players you don't believe in. But, if they can get two top 50-60 prospects, I do that. Nope, there are no guarantees in life/prospect land. But, they need them, badly.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Even if it was a ploy, why wouldn't the cards go along with it? The red Sox and Yankees do that all the time to force teams too give up more.

Even this seems exaggerated. There isn't really a clear best path for the Cardinals in this -- do they want to push the Dodgers to throw in another prospect to finish the trade? Or would they rather block the trade from happening altogether?

 

Further, whatever marginal benefit they derive from affecting the Dodgers is probably wiped out by the precedent their own rumored offer would have on their own negotiations. The next time they want to make a trade, their potential partners could use a big rumored Dozier offer as a starting point in negotiations.

[Mike Sixel]

 

If they aren't getting what they want I'd leave it too. I suspect the Dodgers aren't changing their offer.

 

and do what, then, to get better in 2018 and beyond? Just rely on the draft?

[Squirrel]

If they aren't getting what they want I'd leave it too. I suspect the Dodgers aren't changing their offer.

I wish I really knew what the offer is, but I'm not a fly on that wall.

[drjim]

and do what, then, to get better in 2018 and beyond? Just rely on the draft?

Try to compete the next two seasons, sign an extension, move him at the deadline, trade Polanco instead.

 

All kinds of options if you aren't getting the offer you want.

[roger]

People have been under rating Dozier since way back when he was in high A and AA. So as I expected him back then to become a very good player, I expect his best baseball is still ahead of him.

 

For that reason, the Twins cannot trade him in a deal in which the top player returned has some serious problems. If I were in their shoes, I would say any trade begins with Urias, plus at least one other very good prospect. If the Dodgers don't like it, so be it. Move on to 2017 and take a hard look at extending Dozier some time this spring/summer.

[TheLeviathan]

Taking whatever the Dodgers want to give us also means the first move of this new regime, much like Bill Smith, starts off on the wrong foot.  I'm pretty sure that's a factor here too.

 

But Dozier needs to go before this season starts.  Or we're going to seriously regret it.

[Squirrel]

That's fair. I've never said give him away for nothing, or for players you don't believe in. But, if they can get two top 50-60 prospects, I do that. Nope, there are no guarantees in life/prospect land. But, they need them, badly.

And I didn't say you'd give them away for nothing, but all of us seem to have a differing point of view on just what they should pull the trigger on. I really want a better 3rd piece. And now Heyman suggests it might be DeLeon or Alvarez, not and, as Dave's source is sure of. I just don't know what to think, but I do think they haven't heard yet what they want.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I'm not sure it's really changed the power structure of the deal. Twins want X, Dodgers will give up Y. That hasn't changed. Dodgers want Dozier and the other possibilities - Forsythe/Kinsler - have their own problems. Dodgers know that Dozier fixes all their major problems - they were only 7th in the NL in scoring - and he comes cheap. He's literally a perfect fit for them. Twins know that, too. So I do expect the teams will come to an agreement but maybe it'll need ownership on one side to break the impasse.

Could be. But the Twins have basically spent the last month confirming that no other team has much interest in matching the Dodgers reported offer (of De Leon plus lesser pieces, I am ignoring Dave's inclusion of Alvarez for the time being).

 

I agree that the factors you mention are far more important, but the Twins haven't done themselves any favors the past month. I could see the Dodgers as even less likely to flinch at a Twins deadline/demand now.

[doscinco]

I don't think it's embarrassing. The White Sox used it effectively with Sale with the Nats as the ploy team. The problem is that your in negotiations with Andrew Freidman and he's probably the last exec in baseball that I think will overreact to media reports.

[Vanimal46]

 

I don't think it's embarrassing. The White Sox used it effectively with Sale with the Nats as the ploy team. The problem is that your in negotiations with Andrew Freidman and he's probably the last exec in baseball that I think will overreact to media reports.

The difference is the Nats really were in on acquiring Sale, according to multiple baseball sites... The Cardinals rumor was a false report from the Twins with no substance behind it. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Try to compete the next two seasons, sign an extension, move him at the deadline, trade Polanco instead.

All kinds of options if you aren't getting the offer you want.

 

What do you expect to get for Polanco, to help this team, if you aren't getting much for Dozier?

 

Dozier's value isn't going up, you'd trade him for less at the break?

 

Try to compete next year? A year after losing more than 100 games? Does that seem remotely realistic to you? Hope and faith is not a good way to run a company...

[gunnarthor]

 

And I didn't say you'd give them away for nothing, but all of us seem to have a differing point of view on just what they should pull the trigger on. I really want a better 3rd piece. And now Heyman suggests it might be DeLeon or Alvarez, not and, as Dave's source is sure of. I just don't know what to think, but I do think they haven't heard yet what they want.

Yeah, I think this gets to the heart of it. If the best offer out there is De Leon and either Calhoun or Stewart (which is a popular combo on Dodger blogs) + a AAAA player, then I'd say pass.  I think Dave's suggested price - two top 100 prospects in De Leon and Alvarez plus another good piece or two - seems reasonable compared to other trades in the past.  If the Twins can't get something in that neighborhood, pass.

[DaveW]

Twins would be morons for giving up Dozier for anything less then DeLeon and Alvarez, which is why that is the current offer.

[drjim]

 

What do you expect to get for Polanco, to help this team, if you aren't getting much for Dozier?

 

Dozier's value isn't going up, you'd trade him for less at the break?

 

Try to compete next year? A year after losing more than 100 games? Does that seem remotely realistic to you? Hope and faith is not a good way to run a company...

 

If you put yourself in the box that you have no choice but to trade Dozier this offseason you are setting yourself up for not maximizing your assets. Injuries and poor performance happen across the sport, and if Dozier backs up last season again you would have a more valuable asset (assuming there are landing spots).

 

Dozier is much more valuable than Polanco, and rightfully so, but you can probably flip Polanco for a young starting pitcher. He would have more value to someone like the Phillies or Braves who kicked the tires on Dozier but are looking for a longer term asset.

 

And they lost 100 games, but they also won 83 the year before and they have high beta youngsters. Not likely, but not impossible, especially with much of the rest of the division coming back to them.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I don't think it's embarrassing. The White Sox used it effectively with Sale with the Nats as the ploy team. The problem is that your in negotiations with Andrew Freidman and he's probably the last exec in baseball that I think will overreact to media reports.

It's not clear that the White Sox did that at all. They were clearly talking to the Nats who were clearly willing to give up those prospects (in fact, they did give them up to the White Sox in the Eaton trade just a few days later).

 

There is also no evidence that the White Sox left an offer sit on the table for a long time.

 

On that thought, the Twins are in a much worse negotiating position than the White Sox were. The White Sox at least had a reasonable pretense of reloading for contention in 2017 -- they could reasonably say, if you want Sale, you better make your best offer today or we are just going to keep him and sign a free agent by next week. The Twins, by virtue of 103 losses, can't really say that, especially as we move into the latter portion of the offseason.

[drjim]

 

Taking whatever the Dodgers want to give us also means the first move of this new regime, much like Bill Smith, starts off on the wrong foot.  I'm pretty sure that's a factor here too.

 

But Dozier needs to go before this season starts.  Or we're going to seriously regret it.

 

But those are contradictory points. Don't take what is offered but also you must trade him?

[Vanimal46]

If this Dozier stuff falls through, then I'm a bit frustrated/confused with the plan the rest of the off-season. Polanco/Sano on the left side of the infield is iffy defensively, at best. What are they going to do about pitching? Cross fingers that Hughes and Gibson bounces back? Rely heavily on rookies who may or may not be ready? 

[drjim]

 

It's not clear that the White Sox did that at all. They were clearly talking to the Nats who were clearly willing to give up those prospects (in fact, they did give them up to the White Sox in the Eaton trade just a few days later).

There is also no evidence that the White Sox left an offer sit on the table for a long time.

On that thought, the Twins are in a much worse negotiating position than the White Sox were. The White Sox at least had a reasonable pretense of reloading for contention in 2017 -- they could reasonably say, if you want Sale, you better make your best offer today or we are just going to keep him and sign a free agent by next week. The Twins, by virtue of 103 losses, can't really say that, especially as we move into the latter portion of the offseason.

 

It has less to do with a pretense of competing and more that Sale is much more valuable than Dozier and every team is a possible landing spot for a SP. The market for Dozier is so narrow right now.

[doscinco]

It's not clear that the White Sox did that at all. They were clearly talking to the Nats who were clearly willing to give up those prospects (in fact, they did give them up to the White Sox in the Eaton trade just a few days later).

 

There is also no evidence that the White Sox left an offer sit on the table for a long time.

 

On that thought, the Twins are in a much worse negotiating position than the White Sox were. The White Sox at least had a reasonable pretense of reloading for contention in 2017 -- they could reasonably say, if you want Sale, you better make your best offer today or we are just going to keep him and sign a free agent by next week. The Twins, by virtue of 103 losses, can't really say that, especially as we move into the latter portion of the offseason.

Dozier is their only chip, unless you want to do a prospect for prospect challenge trade. They need to be careful and cover all their basis, though if he's not traded by January, he's probably staying until July.

[gunnarthor]

For what it's worth, reading his reply, it seems that Wolfson thinks De Leon + Stewart are the centerpieces of the Dodger's offer.

 

[drjim]

 

If this Dozier stuff falls through, then I'm a bit frustrated/confused with the plan the rest of the off-season. Polanco/Sano on the left side of the infield is iffy defensively, at best. What are they going to do about pitching? Cross fingers that Hughes and Gibson bounces back? Rely heavily on rookies who may or may not be ready? 

 

This wasn't going to get fixed either way. Best they can probably do is sign a closer, take a flyer on another starter, perhaps sign a veteran 4th OF type and hope you can scratch together a rotation and that the young bats take a leap.

 

If not, you move guys at the deadline.

[Squirrel]

For what it's worth, reading his reply, it seems that Wolfson thinks De Leon + Stewart are the centerpieces of the Dodger's offer.

 

https://twitter.com/DWolfsonKSTP/status/814506150695763968

I'd actually be a little so-so on that depending on the 3rd piece.

[Otto von Ballpark]

It has less to do with a pretense of competing and more that Sale is much more valuable than Dozier and every team is a possible landing spot for a SP. The market for Dozier is so narrow right now.

No doubt, Sale is more valuable than Dozier. And Eaton is more valuable too by virtue of age/contract.

 

But I think the White Sox position was a non-neglible factor in them getting good deals done quickly. (Which is why I have come around to doubting Dave's specific rumor about the inclusion of Alvarez -- the Twins would have been foolish to let a fairly aggressive offer fester since early December).