Dozier Trade Discussion Thread

[DaveW]

Update:

[Cory Engelhardt]

Is there an update?

[Platoon]

I still don't think enough weight is being placed on the value of the competing "positions" that each team is dealing from. The Dodgers are far more likely to be able this year, to fill in the second base position with a MLB level player, than the Twins are to improve the stock of their starting pitching prospects, if the Dozier trade does not go through. I am not, btw, insinuating that the only landing spot for Dozier is LA. But he is currently the only trade avenue towards an upgrade in the SP area. And if another trade partner can be identified, go for it. But for me the bottom line in determining the need level here, is this. The Dodgers will win a lot of games next year, and be competitive, sans Dozier. In the event that they need a 2B in mid summer, they can likely rent one. The Twins on the other hand are not going to win a lot of games, nor will Doziers presence seemingly impact that observation. See 2016. The Twins future positional success depends on the continued development of Buxton, Sano, Polanco, Kepler, and a defensive SS. An avenue to success exists there. Such an avenue is not apparent with the current SP prospects. If the Twins have an opportunity to pick up a prospect that improves that SP roster they need to pull the pin. For a perspective on what a non deal will look like, what an offensive laden team will produce, please refer to TD Game Threads, 2016. It's all the research needed.

[Han Joelo]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/transaction-retrospection-the-daniel-murphy-signing.html

 

Murphy "earned" his whole contract in one year and finished second in the N.L. MVP voting. The Dodgers should have signed him instead of farting around with Kendrick and Utley.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Murphy is considered by some (including metrics) to be a 2B in name only.

 

The Dodgers did show interest in Zobrist last winter, but bowed out. That might give a clue how much they value filling the 2B position, if 4/56 for Zobrist was too much. Even with pessimistic valuations, DeLeon plus Alvarez plus Dozier's salary might be more like 2/56.

[Han Joelo]

Murphy is considered by some (including metrics) to be a 2B in name only.

 

The Dodgers did show interest in Zobrist last winter, but bowed out. That might give a clue how much they value filling the 2B position, if 4/56 for Zobrist was too much. Even with pessimistic valuations, DeLeon plus Alvarez plus Dozier's salary might be more like 2/56.

Probably true, about how much the Dodgers value 2B. More's the pity.

 

But, Murphy, along with Donaldson and Turner, stand as examples of hitters who have gotten better with age.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Any updates? Chance we can get St. Louis in on the talks?

[Squirrel]

Any updates? Chance we can get St. Louis in on the talks?

I think we need to give the hope for updates a rest until after the New Year.

[AZTwin]

Update:

Am I missing something here. Too many pessimistic people in here. Could they go after another 2B? Sure but not likely an impact on their lineup. If the dodgers value championships, then they will get a deal done for dozier

[Riverbrian]

 

I still don't think enough weight is being placed on the value of the competing "positions" that each team is dealing from. The Dodgers are far more likely to be able this year, to fill in the second base position with a MLB level player, than the Twins are to improve the stock of their starting pitching prospects, if the Dozier trade does not go through. I am not, btw, insinuating that the only landing spot for Dozier is LA. But he is currently the only trade avenue towards an upgrade in the SP area. And if another trade partner can be identified, go for it. But for me the bottom line in determining the need level here, is this. The Dodgers will win a lot of games next year, and be competitive, sans Dozier. In the event that they need a 2B in mid summer, they can likely rent one. The Twins on the other hand are not going to win a lot of games, nor will Doziers presence seemingly impact that observation. See 2016. The Twins future positional success depends on the continued development of Buxton, Sano, Polanco, Kepler, and a defensive SS. An avenue to success exists there. Such an avenue is not apparent with the current SP prospects. If the Twins have an opportunity to pick up a prospect that improves that SP roster they need to pull the pin. For a perspective on what a non deal will look like, what an offensive laden team will produce, please refer to TD Game Threads, 2016. It's all the research needed.

 

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

St Louis is apparently in on talks for Dozier too!

[NIATwinsFan]

https://twitter.com/dwolfsonkstp/status/813486535043645441

 

St Louis is apparently in on talks for Dozier too!

Hmmm...Interesting!

[AZTwin]

From the cardinals I think I'd like a package of Alex Reyes, Delvin Perez and Sandy Alacantara. Maybe throw in a low a ball player. That package would be far better than what the dodgers could give us

[HawkeyeDodger]

I've been catching up on the posts here since Christmas.  A lot of interesting takes.  I hope you all had a nice holiday.  You've got a great message board here with a lot of knowledgeable Twins fans and without a lot of infighting and trolls.  It's nice for fans of all sports to have sites like this to discuss their favorite teams.  I made some great friends through a Colts message board 15 years ago.  Friends that I still tailgate and stay with in Indy and who come to Iowa once a year for a golfing weekend. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

From the cardinals I think I'd like a package of Alex Reyes, Delvin Perez and Sandy Alacantara. Maybe throw in a low a ball player. That package would be far better than what the dodgers could give us

Much like Urias of the dodgers, I would be surprised if Reyes were available. But I would also jump at that

[Eduardo Nunez's Helmet]

I would love it if we were able to get the Cardinals into this. Reyes and Jack Flaherty, please.

[Cory Engelhardt]

I would love it if we were able to get the Cardinals into this. Reyes and Jack Flaherty, please.

You don't like Weaver?

[Eduardo Nunez's Helmet]

 

You don't like Weaver?

 

It's not that I don't like Weaver. I want Reyes very badly though, and I highly doubt we'd get both him and Weaver for Dozier.

Flaherty looks like a right-handed Gonsalves to me. As a huge fan of Gonsalves, I would approve of having his right handed clone in our pipeline.

[Eduardo Nunez's Helmet]

Would it be totally insane to trade Dozier for Reyes, Flaherty, and Kolten Wong...then flip Wong plus to the Dodgers for De Leon? Is that kind of wheeling-and-dealing too Playstation-esque?

[GP830]

Would it be totally insane to trade Dozier for Reyes, Flaherty, and Kolten Wong...then flip Wong plus to the Dodgers for De Leon? Is that kind of wheeling-and-dealing too Playstation-esque?

I would die.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Would it be totally insane to trade Dozier for Reyes, Flaherty, and Kolten Wong...then flip Wong plus to the Dodgers for De Leon? Is that kind of wheeling-and-dealing too Playstation-esque?

Probably, but this is fun to dream about

[DaveW]

Keep in mind the "Cards being in on it" reports are coming from the Twins directly, this helps drive up the price potentially. Dodgers still remain the best fit and match IMO by far.

 

Always good to have options though for sure, hopefully this is enough to force the Dodgers to give up a solid third piece along with De Leon and Alvarez who were agreed to.

[darin617]

 

Would it be totally insane to trade Dozier for Reyes, Flaherty, and Kolten Wong...then flip Wong plus to the Dodgers for De Leon? Is that kind of wheeling-and-dealing too Playstation-esque?

 

Wong wouldn't bring back De Leon if the Dodgers had any interest in Wong.

[Eduardo Nunez's Helmet]

 

Wong wouldn't bring back De Leon if the Dodgers had any interest in Wong.

 

I bet it would if you let the Dodgers twist in the wind until, say, mid-February. Wong plus for Alvarez would work, too.

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

Didn't Seattle give up tijuan walker for segura? Walker was a top 10 prospect. That'd be like dodgers giving up Urias

Walker is now a 25 year old pitcher who has a 4+ ERA.  Urias accomplished more in his 19 year old season that Walker has so far. I would say the comparison falls somewhere between Urias and Deleon and probably closer to Deleon.  We've been hearing about Walker for four years and he hasn't put it together.

[Major League Ready]

It's easy to see now why this is taking so long.  At first it did not seem seem like there were other good potential trade partners.  Let's hope the Cards are serious because they have prospects to deal that rival the Dodgers. Buckle up, this could take a while.

[AZTwin]

Walker is now a 25 year old pitcher who has a 4+ ERA. Urias accomplished more in his 19 year old season that Walker has so far. I would say the comparison falls somewhere between Urias and Deleon and probably closer to Deleon. We've been hearing about Walker for four years and he hasn't put it together.

Exactly. Not uncommon for top prospects to bust out until proven. To not give them up in a trade for a proven top 3 2B is foolish and Twins would be fools to accept anything less than a few of them to counteract the percentages

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

New idea.

I don't love it, would rather have prospects

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/212106536/8-potential-trades-during-mlb-hot-stove-season/?partnerId=as_mlb_20161224_68982816&adbid=812795758558613505&adbpl=tw&adbpr=18479513

Interesting.  I've advocated for the Dodgers going after Harrison and McCutchen together if the Pirates are looking to dump Harrison's salary.  The Dodgers may be able to buy down one of their bad contracts in such a trade.  If the reports about the Cardinals being interested in the Twins is true, that is a good thing.  It gives the Twins the ability to see what Dozier's true market value is right now and compare to the Dodgers offer.  However, they aren't getting Reyes like someone mentioned.   I don't see the Nationals as a true option or SF really having anything to offer either.  

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

Age is but one factor.  He's also been highly erratic in terms of how he produces.  "Streaky" would be an enormous understatement.  

 

First half Dozier was bordering on a bench player.  Second half Dozier was Ruthian.  I'd label anyone with that kind of swing a high probability of regression.

I believe Fanrag has Dozier as the #1 candidate to regress.  Braun who is also a rumored Dodgers potential target is listed too if I remember correctly.

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

First of all, if you are demanding a proven prospect, it doesn't exist. Once proven, a player ceases to be a prospect.

Second, again, no one is really off the table as a value proposition in the manner you describe. Bellinger is not off the table because the Dodgers are keeping all their best prospects and only offering scraps; he is likely off the table because the Dodgers are trying to improve their offense, and shipping off one option for another doesn't make a lot of sense. If the Twins wanted outfield help, you wouldn't expect them to be offering Buxton in trade now, would you? Nor would it make sense for a potential trade partner to take offense at the exclusion of Buxton in such talks.

From my understanding, I don't think any single Dodgers pitching prospect is off the table (given that Urias is no longer a prospect but firmly in their MLB rotation); but a package of the top 2-3 might be. Which is an entirely reasonable position for the Dodgers to take.

He is also off the table because they are counting on him to replace Gonzo not only on the field, but as as a way to lower their luxury tax penalty and maybe even reset it for one year.  Going from $21 million to a rookie salary is a big part of their sustainablilty plans.  The Dodgers are attempting to rebuild while they win.  Gonzalez shouldn't be hitting 4th anymore they're going to need Bellinger's power and salary to step for Gonzalez in possibly in 2018, but most definitely he will be starting in 2019.