Dozier Trade Discussion Thread

[TheLeviathan]

 

It seems like some sort of inferiority complex is being manifested here, perpetuated by national writers and apparently acceptable to some here. If Dozier was a Red Sock or Yankee he'd be "worth" a lot more. If Falvine pulled a Beane here and replicates the Donaldson trade I will be very disappointed.

If Dozier remains a Twin, so be it.

 

This is not about inferiority complexes.  It's about probabilities.  

 

There is a very high probability that Dozier will regress from this point, what we saw last year is almost certainly his career year.  There is the probability of us contending to factor in as well.  There is the probability of our ability to acquire pitchers in some other way.  

 

Like it or not, we have some pressure to deal Dozier too, but not as much as the Dodgers have to finish this move. 

[beckmt]

Remember prospects are prospects until they are not.  Arm troubles and lack of innings should certainly be a factor about De Leon.  Twins need a good second and third piece to make this work.  Second piece according to DaveW has been agreed upon.  It sounds like the third and fourth piece are the issue between AAAA filler and prospects in the 25-35 range(lottery tickets).

Twins cannot afford to miss on this trade, it is the one chance to improve quickly.  Could be the Dodgers move on and go elsewhere.  White Sox could be a wild card here, with Quintana and their 2nd baseman for a much bigger prospect haul than this deal.  Dodgers could afford it, just do not know if they would do it. Line would be like(De Leon, Alverez/Bueller, Calhoun, Stewart and 2 or 3 other major pieces or headlined by Urias).  Anything could happen. 

Losing the Dozier trade would be the worst thing for the Twins.  Assumption would be Twins would have to buy a front line starter in 2018, assuming any of them would come here except in a huge overpay.

[Squirrel]

I agree

 

And some absolute under valuing of last year and the entire career by others.

 

Under valuing to the point that some feel that the Dodgers should be able to hold back the cream of the unproven prospects forcing the Twins to pick among the minor league kinda above average and be happy about it. Talk about Big Bank take Little Bank. 

 

If Falvey/Lavine make that type of trade... the honeymoon is over.

 

I don't want Falvey/Levine making a desperate deal because of some self imposed arbitrary time clock set for opening day.

 

He just hit 42 home runs. The other team pays or you walk.

 

I just can't like this enough so I am quoting it to say I can't like this enough to show how much I like this.

[USAFChief]

I just can't like this enough so I am quoting it to say I can't like this enough to show how much I like this.

What a suck up. Disgusting.

[Mike Sixel]

I see no one here posting about accepting anything other than two of their to give prospects. Both of those are in the top fifty, probably overall... And in getting one to two more pieces. What mythical fan on these boards is asking for less? How is that under valuing him? If you are going to argue against someone, argue against an actual argument being made...

[Riverbrian]

I see no one here posting about accepting anything other than two of their to give prospects. Both of those are in the top fifty, probably overall... And in getting one to two more pieces. What mythical fan on these boards is asking for less? How is that under valuing him? If you are going to argue against someone, argue against an actual argument being made...

IMO... you are doing it in this post when you say. "To give prospects"

 

Alvarez not available... I've read that quite a few times.

 

If it's a prospect yet to prove himself. For Dozier they are on the table or Dozier is off the table.

 

IMO of course.

[Cory Engelhardt]

New idea.

 

I don't love it, would rather have prospects

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/212106536/8-potential-trades-during-mlb-hot-stove-season/?partnerId=as_mlb_20161224_68982816&adbid=812795758558613505&adbpl=tw&adbpr=18479513

[Mike Sixel]

IMO... you are doing it in this post when you say. "To give prospects"

 

Alvarez not available... I've read that quite a few times.

 

If it's a prospect yet to prove himself. For Dozier they are on the table or Dozier is off the table.

 

IMO of course.

Are you arguing trading for prospects is under valuing him?

[GP830]

MLB.com is proposing Dozier to the Cards for Kolton Wong, Luke Weaver (RHP), and Austin Gomber (LHP). Tickle anyone's fancy?

 

I'm not sure Wong would really bring any value-- thoughts?

[Otto von Ballpark]

Wong started slow in 2016, but he is a league average second baseman which has some value. Could be flipped again too.

[AZTwin]

MLB.com is proposing Dozier to the Cards for Kolton Wong, Luke Weaver (RHP), and Austin Gomber (LHP). Tickle anyone's fancy?

 

I'm not sure Wong would really bring any value-- thoughts?

That's an interesting package. Much better than the De Leon and Stewart package discussed by dodger fans. I'd still be interested in De Leon, Alvarez, and Lux package though

[beckmt]

Have no interest in Wong, but a third or fourth piece(lottery tickets) are certainly interesting.

[Riverbrian]

 

Are you arguing trading for prospects is under valuing him?

 

Kinda but not really at all. I understand that this deal is going to involve prospects. 

 

I'm saying that Dozier is undervalued anytime an unproven at the MLB level prospect is deemed by anyone as better and therefore untouchable in a deal for Dozier.  

 

I'm saying that every time someone says that the Dodgers would never trade unproven prospect X or unproven prospect Y...  it becomes more and more like a pawn shop transaction because someone is desperate for the 20 bucks he just got for that fairly new $300 X-Box... OR... Or...  Steve Martin in "The Jerk" explaining that the winner can select from this shrinking small section of the prizes in view.

 

I'm saying... every time someone says trade him or this off season is a failure... or anytime someone says Brian Dozier is going to turn into a pumpkin at midnight... it is like pushing Falvey/Levine to go see Bo Diddley in "Trading Places" while dressed in the same Dan Aykroyd outfit with a second baseman that is water resistant in three atmospheres. 

 

 

I'm saying that allowing the Dodgers to keep the players they want to keep and forcing the Twins to choose from a lesser pool of unproven prospects is how the Dodgers get everything they want and the Twins end up settling for the best that they could do and if you keep making deals like that you will never get to be Donald Trump. 

 

I'm saying that Brian Dozier hit 40 plus home runs last year and the guys who do that are getting big money on the open market... The Other Team doesn't get to narrow our choices down to erasers and Chiclets and we should just walk past that carnival booth. 

 

 

 

(Pause while all of that sinks in)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It's also possible that I'm overvaluing Brian Dozier. I don't do this for a living.     

 

[Riverbrian]

 

It's also possible that I'm overvaluing Brian Dozier. I don't do this for a living.     

 

In 2016... The numbers produced by Dozier would have led the 2016 Dodgers in 

 

OPS

Slugging

OWAR

Total Bases

Home Runs

RBI's

Stolen Bases

Triples (Tied) 

 

And been

 

2nd in AB's

2nd in Runs

2nd in Doubles

 

and been

 

3rd in Walks

3rd in Games Played

 

 

I believe 2016 Brian Dozier would have been the best offensive player on the 2016 Dodgers. I believe if you compared Brian Dozier 2016 Numbers Side by Side with Corey Seager... You'd have to give the edge to Brian Dozier. 

 

 

What is the value of trading a contending team their top hitter? 

 

 

[Han Joelo]

Kinda but not really at all. I understand that this deal is going to involve prospects.

 

I'm saying that Dozier is undervalued anytime an unproven at the MLB level prospect is deemed by anyone as better and therefore untouchable in a deal for Dozier.

 

I'm saying that every time someone says that the Dodgers would never trade unproven prospect X or unproven prospect Y... it becomes more and more like a pawn shop transaction because someone is desperate for the 20 bucks he just got for that fairly new $300 X-Box... OR... Or... Steve Martin in "The Jerk" explaining that the winner can select from this shrinking small section of the prizes in view.

 

I'm saying... every time someone says trade him or this off season is a failure... or anytime someone says Brian Dozier is going to turn into a pumpkin at midnight... it is like pushing Falvey/Levine to go see Bo Diddley in "Trading Places" while dressed in the same Dan Aykroyd outfit with a second baseman that is water resistant in three atmospheres.

 

 

I'm saying that allowing the Dodgers to keep the players they want to keep and forcing the Twins to choose from a lesser pool of unproven prospects is how the Dodgers get everything they want and the Twins end up settling for the best that they could do and if you keep making deals like that you will never get to be Donald Trump.

 

I'm saying that Brian Dozier hit 40 plus home runs last year and the guys who do that are getting big money on the open market... The Other Team doesn't get to narrow our choices down to erasers and Chiclets and we should just walk past that carnival booth.

 

 

 

(Pause while all of that sinks in)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It's also possible that I'm overvaluing Brian Dozier. I don't do this for a living.

I've never liked something enough to figure out how to like it on my phone. This statement has changed all of that.

 

How do you like things on a smartphone?

[Squirrel]

I've never liked something enough to figure out how to like it on my phone. This statement has changed all of that.

How do you like things on a smartphone?

See that check mark in the upper right corner of the post you want to like? Yup, just touch there. When the check mark changes to an X, you've successfully liked it.

[mudcat14]

 

This is not about inferiority complexes.  It's about probabilities.  

 

There is a very high probability that Dozier will regress from this point, what we saw last year is almost certainly his career year.

 

I disagree strongly with the ' very high probability' of regression on Dozier's part.  Jeff Kent, Bret Boone and even Paul Molitor are just three examples of second basemen who went on to post markedly better numbers in their 30's   than they had in their 20's.  Brian took a huge step forward in 2016, but overall he has been on a steady uptick in his overall production throughout his career.  I think the more 'probable' is that it will continue.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Brian,

 

It's not so much that the Dodgers are deeming guys untouchable because they are better than Dozier. It seems more that Bellinger is untouchable because sacrificing a near MLb ready position player kinda defeats the purpose of acquiring a position player in Dozier.

 

Similarly, Alvarez probably isn't "untouchable" unless we're also trying to get 2-3 other significant pieces. Again, not that the player is off limits but that the whole package is too much.

 

The core premise of Dave's rumor, and minimum Twins fan demand, seems to be De Leon and Alvarez. That's their top two pitching prospects. Unless you disagree with that, it feels like you are splitting hairs about Dozier's projection at best, or railing against strawmen at worst.

[FormerMinnasotan]

I think you absolutely have to trade Dozier now. First off last year for Dozier was kinda flukey with the .268 batting average and 42 homers (Dozier is normally around .240 batting average and 20-25 home runs) and this is the best time to deal him so the Twins can get the highest return. If the Twins wait till the trade deadline this coming year Dozier's trade value will be considerably lower. Secondly if Jose DeLeon is an integral part of the trade DO IT. We have a comparable pitching prospect to DeLeon, Jose Berrios. It would be great to have DeLeon on our pitching staff, especially if Berrios fails. Because DeLeon might take the place of Berrios and pitch more to his potential. Just my opinion though, I hate the thought of the Twins holding out on Dozier, even though right now is his highest trade value ever, plus with Polonco waiting in the wings at 2nd base it might be time to move Dozier as he is definitely replaceable IMO.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I disagree strongly with the ' very high probability' of regression on Dozier's part.  Jeff Kent, Bret Boone and even Paul Molitor are just three examples of second basemen who went on to post markedly better numbers in their 30's   than they had in their 20's.  Brian took a huge step forward in 2016, but overall he has been on a steady uptick in his overall production throughout his career.  I think the more 'probable' is that it will continue.

 

Age is but one factor.  He's also been highly erratic in terms of how he produces.  "Streaky" would be an enormous understatement.  

 

First half Dozier was bordering on a bench player.  Second half Dozier was Ruthian.  I'd label anyone with that kind of swing a high probability of regression.

[Riverbrian]

 

Brian,

It's not so much that the Dodgers are deeming guys untouchable because they are better than Dozier. It seems more that Bellinger is untouchable because sacrificing a near MLb ready position player kinda defeats the purpose of acquiring a position player in Dozier.

Similarly, Alvarez probably isn't "untouchable" unless we're also trying to get 2-3 other significant pieces. Again, not that the player is off limits but that the whole package is too much.

The core premise of Dave's rumor, and minimum Twins fan demand, seems to be De Leon and Alvarez. That's their top two pitching prospects. Unless you disagree with that, it feels like you are splitting hairs about Dozier's projection at best, or railing against strawmen at worst.

 

For the record. I don't want any position players in the package. It dilutes the amount of arms needed and I have no idea who the Dodgers have deemed untouchable.  

 

I also have no idea who I want specifically because I am not qualified to determine who I should want and feel it is dangerous to project players based on what unknown sources have written. 

 

And my diatribes were not born from Twins Daily forums alone but yeah... It's been cumulative and I am railing against multiple comments... from the Dozier Regression Kings to the Alvarez is gonna rule the world and therefore not available club.  

 

 

 

 

[Han Joelo]

See that check mark in the upper right corner of the post you want to like? Yup, just touch there. When the check mark changes to an X, you've successfully liked it.

I knew it was easy. I thought the check meant I was reporting someone for bad stuff.

[beckmt]

 

I think you absolutely have to trade Dozier now. First off last year for Dozier was kinda flukey with the .268 batting average and 42 homers (Dozier is normally around .240 batting average and 20-25 home runs) and this is the best time to deal him so the Twins can get the highest return. If the Twins wait till the trade deadline this coming year Dozier's trade value will be considerably lower. Secondly if Jose DeLeon is an integral part of the trade DO IT. We have a comparable pitching prospect to DeLeon, Jose Berrios. It would be great to have DeLeon on our pitching staff, especially if Berrios fails. Because DeLeon might take the place of Berrios and pitch more to his potential. Just my opinion though, I hate the thought of the Twins holding out on Dozier, even though right now is his highest trade value ever, plus with Polonco waiting in the wings at 2nd base it might be time to move Dozier as he is definitely replaceable IMO.

This is the Dodgers stance and why this is a waiting game.  Dodgers waiting until price drops to level they want and the Twins want extra prospects as the second name is still a long way from the major leagues and the #1 offering had shoulder issues last year.  I agree it is best to sell, just do not sell short.

[beckmt]

Remember Dodgers need a right handed hitting 2nd baseman.  There just are not that many good ones that fit this restriction out there. 

[AZTwin]

Remember Dodgers need a right handed hitting 2nd baseman. There just are not that many good ones that fit this restriction out there.

Exactly. To get over the hump it should cost a premium. Giants got better. Cubs just won World Series. Hell, Indians got better to if they want to be able to knock them off. A few unproven prospects that may or may not help you in the future is a small price to pay if you have a chance to win it all

[Otto von Ballpark]

And to make it worse. I refuse to get specific about what prospects I want because I haven't seen any of them and I don't FULLY trust the public projections available to us the common man.

 

I'm just gonna have a fundamental value issue if any unproven prospect is off the table for Dozier.

First of all, if you are demanding a proven prospect, it doesn't exist. Once proven, a player ceases to be a prospect.

 

Second, again, no one is really off the table as a value proposition in the manner you describe. Bellinger is not off the table because the Dodgers are keeping all their best prospects and only offering scraps; he is likely off the table because the Dodgers are trying to improve their offense, and shipping off one option for another doesn't make a lot of sense. If the Twins wanted outfield help, you wouldn't expect them to be offering Buxton in trade now, would you? Nor would it make sense for a potential trade partner to take offense at the exclusion of Buxton in such talks.

 

From my understanding, I don't think any single Dodgers pitching prospect is off the table (given that Urias is no longer a prospect but firmly in their MLB rotation); but a package of the top 2-3 might be. Which is an entirely reasonable position for the Dodgers to take.

[AZTwin]

First of all, if you are demanding a proven prospect, it doesn't exist. Once proven, a player ceases to be a prospect.

 

Second, again, no one is really off the table as a value proposition in the manner you describe. Bellinger is not off the table because the Dodgers are keeping all their best prospects and only offering scraps; he is likely off the table because the Dodgers are trying to improve their offense, and shipping off one option for another doesn't make a lot of sense. If the Twins wanted outfield help, you wouldn't expect them to be offering Buxton in trade now, would you? Nor would it make sense for a potential trade partner to take offense at the exclusion of Buxton in such talks.

 

From my understanding, I don't think any single Dodgers pitching prospect is off the table (given that Urias is no longer a prospect but firmly in their MLB rotation); but a package of the top 2-3 might be. Which is an entirely reasonable position for the Dodgers to take.

Yeah that's fine if a package of the 2-3 are off the table. Totally reasonable. And would be totally reasonable for us to say thanks but no thanks here too. We are already doing them a favor by helping them get over a hump. No need to get taken cleaners as well

[darin617]

May as well lock up the thread because I highly doubt either team will be talking until after the new year.

[Riverbrian]

 

First of all, if you are demanding a proven prospect, it doesn't exist. Once proven, a player ceases to be a prospect.

Second, again, no one is really off the table as a value proposition in the manner you describe. Bellinger is not off the table because the Dodgers are keeping all their best prospects and only offering scraps; he is likely off the table because the Dodgers are trying to improve their offense, and shipping off one option for another doesn't make a lot of sense. If the Twins wanted outfield help, you wouldn't expect them to be offering Buxton in trade now, would you? Nor would it make sense for a potential trade partner to take offense at the exclusion of Buxton in such talks.

From my understanding, I don't think any single Dodgers pitching prospect is off the table (given that Urias is no longer a prospect but firmly in their MLB rotation); but a package of the top 2-3 might be. Which is an entirely reasonable position for the Dodgers to take.

 

I apologize... I changed my comment entirely and while I was doing so you posted a response to the original.

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

Yeah that's fine if a package of the 2-3 are off the table. Totally reasonable. And would be totally reasonable for us to say thanks but no thanks here too. We are already doing them a favor by helping them get over a hump. No need to get taken cleaners as well

Doing them a favor by exchanging valuable players for each other?