Dozier Trade Discussion Thread

[mudcat14]

 

Why do we keep dismissing Calhoun as a DH? He probably doesn't stick at 2B, but it seems like he would have a good chance of a successful move to the outfield.

 

I'm with you.  I think he could be a potent LF in a couple of years.

[Gheggs08]

 

I absolutely agree they aren't available and I wouldn't think twice about giving Deleon and Alvarez for Altuve, but he's not Altuve.  I have no doubt that most fans over rate their own prospects, but referring to Dozier as a top 3 second baseman was an example of overrating a player.  They aren't available, and like I said I could have listed more like Gordon, Segura, and a couple more quality second baseman who are as good or near as good as Dozier.  The Twins don't have anyone else to deal with right now because of how many quality second baseman have homes.  I'm not saying the Twins should get fleeced by any means and I wouldn't pretend to know the Twins prospects sufficiently enough to express an opinion about them.  I see the Kernels play the Loons every other season in Cedar Rapids and that's my exposure to the Twins prospects.  All in all, it is probably good the holidays are upon us.  The two teams can separate for a bit and re-think this.  Having read the Dodgers boards and the Twins boards it is easy to understand the trouble agreeing to a second piece.  BTW, I would avoid the dodgers.com message board.  There are about 5-10 people who discuss baseball and know anything.  The rest are trolls and infighting.  

You think Segura or Gordon are as valuable as Dozier??

[mudcat14]

 

Actually, what is "sure" about Dozier? Certainly not 40+ homeruns, probably not even 32+, maybe not even 30+.....so what is sure about him?

 

Also, how long are you sure he's great/good? What do the Twins do to speed up the rebuild, if they refuse to trade their aging stars? Just wait for drafting to work out?

 

What's for sure with Dozier?  Well, at a minimum 25-HR, 75-RBI, 90-runs, 10-SB & a .765 OPS, along with solid, at worst defense.  Ironically, these numbers match up almost identically to the career best numbers just posted by a player two and half years older, that the Dodgers just committed $64mil to this week.  Dozier has a track record as an everyday player.  Mr. Moneybags just eclipsed 500-PA's for the first time in his career in 2016.

[Otto von Ballpark]

What's for sure with Dozier? Well, at a minimum 25-HR, 75-RBI, 90-runs, 10-SB & a .765 OPS, along with solid, at worst defense. Ironically, these numbers match up almost identically to the career best numbers just posted by a player two and half years older, that the Dodgers just committed $64mil to this week. Dozier has a track record as an everyday player. Mr. Moneybags just eclipsed 500-PA's for the first time in his career in 2016.

Huh? Turner's career best is an .897 OPS, and he just posted an .832. And those were in Dodger Stadium, a pitcher's park. He is a little light on the counting stats, but some of that was being a utility player and late bloomer.

[TheLeviathan]

In the other thread it's mentioned the Dodgers have "moved on" - I can't find any such report?

[Otto von Ballpark]

In the other thread it's mentioned the Dodgers have "moved on" - I can't find any such report?

Just speculation due to inactivity, I imagine.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Just speculation due to inactivity, I imagine.

 

I'm sure both put this on pause for the next week or so any way, just out of respect for Dozier.

 

I anticipate the Dodgers blink at some point here.

[Major League Ready]

 

Then Dozier is getting extra trade value for availability, not for "top 3 talent". I think that is a distinction worth making -- the former, you can wait to see if someone else comes available. The latter, you're never going to find someone better.

Also, I think the poster he was responding to was looking for significant 3rd and even 4th prospects. I think everyone here agrees that we want a significant 2nd piece.

I agree.  The point I was trying to make is I am not sure if he is top 3 or not.  That is very debatable so I saw no point in going there.  What we do know is that he is a very valuable player and the return should reflect that value. 

 

The other side of that coin is that there is not a lot of demand.  I personally don't believe the offer is really DeLeon / Alvarez and the 3rd or 4th pieces are holding this up.  If that's the case, I have to wonder about our new leadership.  Two very good SP prospects and a lottery ticket or even a decent prospective utility player is all we can expect to get given the limited market for Dozier.

 

It would be a real shame if we lost out on two good prospects because our new F/O feels like they have to prove themselves.  This would be the case if they actually were declining an offer that included DeLeon and Alvarez.  Our team is not going to be good this year and probably mediocre next year so keeping Dozier for those two years at the expense of a couple of very good SP prospects would be horrible asset management.

 

 

[Han Joelo]

My boys got $100 from their grandma for Christmas. They each bought a $30 Lego set and were very happy, practically forgetting they even had change.

 

Feels like some folks are so happy to be shopping with a crisp $100 bill that they would be happy to go home with the $30 set. Come on guys! We can at least dream on the millennium falcon set.

[Oxtung]

Reports are that he is very slow - Eric Longenhagen put a 30 grade on his speed. I think best case you're looking at another Kubel or maybe Cuddyer (without the arm).

And just turned 22. What will he look like at 26 when he's put on another 20 pounds? I think it's more likely to look like willingham or even Sano. I have no desire to see that. Corner OF bats are the easiest thing to find in FA.

[Riverbrian]

 

Is that top 3 in the AL or MLB?  Dozier had a great season and is a good ball player.  Great power, can steal bases, avg defense, low batting avg., and .obp at times.

 

Altuve

Murphy

Cano

Lemahieu

Kinsler

Villar

Pedroia

Kipnis

Odor

 

I don't see Dozier as better than any of the above plus there are 3 or 4 more on par.  

 

If the Dodgers feel the same way you do. The Answer is quite simple. 

 

The Dodgers should take the offer that is on the table for Dozier and offer it to other teams.

 

This fair offer for a 11th or 15th ranked 2B like Dozier and call the other teams and offer it to them for a 2B in return.

 

Call the Brewers and offer the very same package for Villar. The Brewers need pitching so why not? 

 

If the Twins are unreasonable... Walk away. Show the Twins the value of the current Dodgers offer by acquiring someone else with the same package. 

 

  

 

 

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

You think Segura or Gordon are as valuable as Dozier??

Listen, I would happily take Segura and his 200+ hits at the top of the order.  I didn't say they were better just close.  As for Gordon, he's way better defensively.  We will see what he does at the plate off the juice.  

[mudcat14]

 

Huh? Turner's career best is an .897 OPS, and he just posted an .832. And those were in Dodger Stadium, a pitcher's park. He is a little light on the counting stats, but some of that was being a utility player and late bloomer.

 

You're correct, Turner's career high was over a 288-AB season in 2014.  I'll even concede that his OPS of .872 over the last three seasons beats Dozier's .799 over the same span, in which Brian has averaged 260 more plate appearances per season.  It is odd that Turner bloomed in his age 29 season, and has built on that over the next two seasons to earn a big 4-year Dodger contract, yet Dozier's age 29 season eclipsed it in almost every way (Turners OBP was .011 higher, but Dozier had more than double the plate appearances and started nearly every game), yet he's an aging veteran destined for decline.

 

The park factor may be true as well, but you have to admit that Target Field's offensive numbers have been inflated by the extreme suckitude of Twins pitching ever since they opened the doors. 

 

Oh yeah.  Dozier hits lefties.  Tuner, meh... not so much.

[Otto von Ballpark]

You're correct, Turner's career high was over a 288-AB season in 2014. I'll even concede that his OPS of .872 over the last three seasons beats Dozier's .799 over the same span, in which Brian has averaged 260 more plate appearances per season. It is odd that Turner bloomed in his age 29 season, and has built on that over the next two seasons to earn a big 4-year Dodger contract, yet Dozier's age 29 season eclipsed it in almost every way (Turners OBP was .011 higher, but Dozier had more than double the plate appearances and started nearly every game), yet he's an aging veteran destined for decline

I think you are confusing issues. Opinions of Dozier's future differ, like any player's, but that has nothing to do with the trade talk. He is only controlled for 2 more years, and whatever wins he provides in that time are unlikely to mean much on Twins teams unlikely to contend.

 

Dozier would almost certainly beat Turner's contract on the open market right now, I agree, but that doesn't really change any of the above.

[Oxtung]

 

Is that top 3 in the AL or MLB?  Dozier had a great season and is a good ball player.  Great power, can steal bases, avg defense, low batting avg., and .obp at times.

 

Altuve

Murphy

Cano

Lemahieu

Kinsler

Villar

Pedroia

Kipnis

Odor

 

I don't see Dozier as better than any of the above plus there are 3 or 4 more on par.  

Your bias is showing here. I mean Lemahieu and Villar all have multiple replacement level seasons recently for god's sake....

[AZTwin]

Listen, I would happily take Segura and his 200+ hits at the top of the order. I didn't say they were better just close. As for Gordon, he's way better defensively. We will see what he does at the plate off the juice.

Didn't Seattle give up tijuan walker for segura? Walker was a top 10 prospect. That'd be like dodgers giving up Urias

[mudcat14]

I think you are confusing issues. Opinions of Dozier's future differ, like any player's, but that has nothing to do with the trade talk. He is only controlled for 2 more years, and whatever wins he provides in that time are unlikely to mean much on Twins teams unlikely to contend.

 

 

True. I'm not suggesting it was you, but I'm just tiring of numerous post's that imply that 2016 was a fluke and Dozier is certain to decline from this point. While the HR total may not be sustainable, his track record and history say that it is more likely his overall production will improve or at worst plateau over the next few seasons.

 

Turner's new Dodger deal only serves to support what a bargain Dozier is financially. In two years, if they want to keep him they'll have to pay him market value, or let him walk. Regardless, Brian is much more likely to win them post-season glory than any of the names bandied about in return over that time.

[AZTwin]

The thing that makes no sense to me is that they don't want to get a player to put them over the top. Yeah you give up the prospects but isn't that worth it if helps you win a championship?

[doscinco]

The thing that makes no sense to me is that they don't want to get a player to put them over the top. Yeah you give up the prospects but isn't that worth it if helps you win a championship?

Just like Jon Lester was going to be the piece that put the A's over the top in '14 correct?

[AZTwin]

No more like chuck knoblauch helping the Yankees to World Series rings

[doscinco]

There are no guarantees in baseball, unfortunately. It's very likely they don't win it with Dozier, just like there's a very good chance the Red Sox aren't winning with Sale.

[DaveW]

I'm sure both put this on pause for the next week or so any way, just out of respect for Dozier.

 

I anticipate the Dodgers blink at some point here.

Both of the major players in both front offices are home for the holidays more or less.

Look for it to pick back up Jan 2nd

[DaveW]

Dozier is one of the best 3 2nd baseman around. He was the best last year.

 

He isn't worse then Pedroia, LeMathiu etc etc

 

That's absurd.

[HitInAPinch]

taking a nap until January.......

[Linus]

I think most Twist fans are over valuing two years of Dozier. Especially because neither of those years will look like last year. If they can get DeLeon, Alvarez and Ruiz they should take it and run. Furthermore if Falvey doesn't figure out a way to trade Dozier the honeymoon is over.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Just speculation due to inactivity, I imagine.

 

baseball front offices don't take time off for the holidays

 

I doubt we see much for a couple weeks for now... Just my guess.

[Cory Engelhardt]

I think most Twist fans are over valuing two years of Dozier. Especially because neither of those years will look like last year. If they can get DeLeon, Alvarez and Ruiz they should take it and run. Furthermore if Falvey doesn't figure out a way to trade Dozier the honeymoon is over.

I'm not over valuing. If they can get De Leon and Alvarez, the twins take it and run

[Riverbrian]

 

I think most Twist fans are over valuing two years of Dozier. Especially because neither of those years will look like last year. If they can get DeLeon, Alvarez and Ruiz they should take it and run. Furthermore if Falvey doesn't figure out a way to trade Dozier the honeymoon is over.

 

I agree

 

And some absolute under valuing of last year and the entire career by others.

 

Under valuing to the point that some feel that the Dodgers should be able to hold back the cream of the unproven prospects forcing the Twins to pick among the minor league kinda above average and be happy about it. Talk about Big Bank take Little Bank. 

 

If Falvey/Lavine make that type of trade... the honeymoon is over.

 

I don't want Falvey/Levine making a desperate deal because of some self imposed arbitrary time clock set for opening day.

 

He just hit 42 home runs. The other team pays or you walk.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[mudcat14]

 

I think most Twist fans are over valuing two years of Dozier. Especially because neither of those years will look like last year. If they can get DeLeon, Alvarez and Ruiz they should take it and run. Furthermore if Falvey doesn't figure out a way to trade Dozier the honeymoon is over.

 

I think Dodger fans are under valuing two years of Dozier.  Sure his HR total is likely going to drop, but his overall production is very sustainable and could conceivably increase as it has over the past four years.  His value for two years is extreme and with the highest payroll in the game, I don't think the Dodgers are too fazed by the prospective salary of year three and beyond. 

[Han Joelo]

It seems like some sort of inferiority complex is being manifested here, perpetuated by national writers and apparently acceptable to some here. If Dozier was a Red Sock or Yankee he'd be "worth" a lot more. If Falvine pulled a Beane here and replicates the Donaldson trade I will be very disappointed.

 

If Dozier remains a Twin, so be it.