Dozier Trade Discussion Thread

[AZTwin]

Why does a Dodger prospect list from the McCourt era have any bearings on today? McCourt famously cut all international and amateur draft spending. There are different people running scouting and directing, such as the Twins newly appointed coach, Jeff Pickler.

Fine look at the top 100 from 2010. Most likely over half are busts. Point is that dozier is a for sure thing. Prospects are just that, prospects

[Otto von Ballpark]

Why do we keep dismissing Calhoun as a DH? He probably doesn't stick at 2B, but it seems like he would have a good chance of a successful move to the outfield.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Fine look at the top 100 from 2010. Most likely over half are busts. Point is that dozier is a for sure thing. Prospects are just that, prospects

 

Actually, what is "sure" about Dozier? Certainly not 40+ homeruns, probably not even 32+, maybe not even 30+.....so what is sure about him?

 

Also, how long are you sure he's great/good? What do the Twins do to speed up the rebuild, if they refuse to trade their aging stars? Just wait for drafting to work out?

[Otto von Ballpark]

Fine look at the top 100 from 2010. Most likely over half are busts. Point is that dozier is a for sure thing. Prospects are just that, prospects

Dozier is a sure thing to be a MLB player, but still has quite a range of possible outcomes. If he repeats 2015, he is worth a lot less than if he repeats 2016.

[markos]

 

Why do we keep dismissing Calhoun as a DH? He probably doesn't stick at 2B, but it seems like he would have a good chance of a successful move to the outfield.

Reports are that he is very slow - Eric Longenhagen put a 30 grade on his speed. I think best case you're looking at another Kubel or maybe Cuddyer (without the arm). 

[drjim]

Reports are that he is very slow - Eric Longenhagen put a 30 grade on his speed. I think best case you're looking at another Kubel or maybe Cuddyer (without the arm).

That would be a great get as a second piece. I suspect he is a true tweener. Can't stay at 2b, can't hit enough for a corner.

[AZTwin]

Why do we keep dismissing Calhoun as a DH? He probably doesn't stick at 2B, but it seems like he would have a good chance of a successful move to the outfield.

A 5'8" corner outfielder that was too fat for 2b isn't exactly appealing

[AZTwin]

Actually, what is "sure" about Dozier? Certainly not 40+ homeruns, probably not even 32+, maybe not even 30+.....so what is sure about him?

 

Also, how long are you sure he's great/good? What do the Twins do to speed up the rebuild, if they refuse to trade their aging stars? Just wait for drafting to work out?

Trading them for AAAA talent doesn't help the rebuild. Only helps if you get a fair trade in return. Dodger fans don't want a fair trade.

[markos]

 

That would be a great get as a second piece. I suspect he is a true tweener. Can't stay at 2b, can't hit enough for a corner.

Sorry. I was strictly comparing defensive ability - I wasn't trying to compare him to Kubel or Cuddyer on the offensive side.

[Vanimal46]

Trading them for AAAA talent doesn't help the rebuild. Only helps if you get a fair trade in return. Dodger fans don't want a fair trade.

And Twins fans want a lopsided trade. Good thing fans don't make the trades.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Trading them for AAAA talent doesn't help the rebuild. Only helps if you get a fair trade in return. Dodger fans don't want a fair trade.

 

come on. De Leon isn't a AAAA player, nor is the second piece probably. No one is saying do that. Who cares what Dodger fans want....

[Mike Sixel]

From just now:

 

mike sixel
9:51 First winter in Portland, much colder than expected......will the Dozier/Dodgers deal ever get done? Which side, if you had to guess, was being "unreasonable" right ow?

 

Jeff Sullivan
9:52 I'd say it's more likely than unlikely. If they're already basically agreed on De Leon, it's just about identifying the second piece. Neither side is being unreasonable -- one just wants more, while the other wants to give less. Objectively the Twins should probably be content with De Leon+ but I understand why they're being stubborn

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

A fair package would probably be Bellinger, Alvarez, Keibert Ruiz, and then just throw in a AAAA arm like a brock Stewart

When did Stewart become a AAAA ;pitcher with only one or two pitches?  Have you actually watched him pitch?  Frias is a AAAA pitcher more than likely.  Fein was AAAA pitcher.  

 

Bellinger is a non-starter not just because he is the heir apparent for 1st base, but also if the Dodgers ever want to get back near the luxury tax cap or even reset for one year it is absolutely necessary that Bellinger moves into that spot.    

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

I agree that Dozier should be dealt right now because the Twins need pitching and more pitching after that and more pitching after that.  

 

BUT... If the Dodgers want Dozier and want the Twins to assume the risk of minor league talent in return and still want to be able to keep their preferred minor league talent. The Twins should walk away. It's the Dodgers who are trying to add that final piece of the puzzle for serious contention. 

 

 

Any price the Dodgers are willing to pay for Dozier right now should be enough to land them any other 2B in the league if it's truly fair value. If the Dodgers are offering X amount for Dozier and it's supposedly fair value and the Twins won't take it... Go ahead... take that same package and offer it to the Rockies for LeMahieu... or to the Marlins for Gordon... or the Tigers for Kinsler... or to the Orioles for Schoop because the Twins are clearly unreasonable not taking it.  

 

Why hasn't that happened? Could it be possible that the Dodgers want Dozier? Could it be possible that the Rockies won't give up LeMahieu for that very same package the Twins have been offered for Dozier. 

 

He's a top 3 2B... Pay Up. 

Is that top 3 in the AL or MLB?  Dozier had a great season and is a good ball player.  Great power, can steal bases, avg defense, low batting avg., and .obp at times.

 

Altuve

Murphy

Cano

Lemahieu

Kinsler

Villar

Pedroia

Kipnis

Odor

 

I don't see Dozier as better than any of the above plus there are 3 or 4 more on par.  

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

A 5'8" corner outfielder that was too fat for 2b isn't exactly appealing

He's not fat.  He built more like Kirby Puckett.  He's all muscle, but not going to steal you bases that's for sure.

[TheLeviathan]

 

From just now:

 

mike sixel
9:51 First winter in Portland, much colder than expected......will the Dozier/Dodgers deal ever get done? Which side, if you had to guess, was being "unreasonable" right ow?

 

Jeff Sullivan
9:52 I'd say it's more likely than unlikely. If they're already basically agreed on De Leon, it's just about identifying the second piece. Neither side is being unreasonable -- one just wants more, while the other wants to give less. Objectively the Twins should probably be content with De Leon+ but I understand why they're being stubborn

 

I'm not sure how much it's been discussed, but I wonder how much of that stubborn approach is to make sure that the rest of the league knows that even though they're "new" they won't be pushovers?

[Otto von Ballpark]

Reports are that he is very slow - Eric Longenhagen put a 30 grade on his speed. I think best case you're looking at another Kubel or maybe Cuddyer (without the arm).

Thanks, I hadn't seen that.

[Major League Ready]

 

Is that top 3 in the AL or MLB?  Dozier had a great season and is a good ball player.  Great power, can steal bases, avg defense, low batting avg., and .obp at times.

 

Altuve

Murphy

Cano

Lemahieu

Kinsler

Villar

Pedroia

Kipnis

Odor

 

I don't see Dozier as better than any of the above plus there are 3 or 4 more on par.  

How many of them are available?  Perhaps more to the point, how many teams would be willing to trade the players you listed for DeLeon without a high upside 2nd prospect?

[Otto von Ballpark]

That would be a great get as a second piece. I suspect he is a true tweener. Can't stay at 2b, can't hit enough for a corner.

Could be. Sickels said Calhoun has a "special combination of power and strike zone judgment" which I think could still play well anywhere -- heck, some guys have made a career at DH with that skill set.

[HawkeyeDodger]

I've read a lot about a lottery ticket wanted.  How does Edwin Rios look to you Twins fans? Deleon+?+ Rios.  Pickler sounds like a sufficient 4th piece.   Rios tore the cover off the ball last year.  I believe I read that he was a shortstop in high school or most of his life, but absolutely doesn't have the glove to play short.  They've been trying to figure out if he has the glove to be a  3rd baseman or if he's a 1st baseman.  Bellinger has him blocked at 1st and Turner will be playing 3rd for the foreseeable future.   There is also another young first baseman at low A, Isabel.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

How many of them are available? Perhaps more to the point, how many teams would be willing to trade the players you listed for DeLeon without a high upside 2nd prospect?

Then Dozier is getting extra trade value for availability, not for "top 3 talent". I think that is a distinction worth making -- the former, you can wait to see if someone else comes available. The latter, you're never going to find someone better.

 

Also, I think the poster he was responding to was looking for significant 3rd and even 4th prospects. I think everyone here agrees that we want a significant 2nd piece.

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

How many of them are available?  Perhaps more to the point, how many teams would be willing to trade the players you listed for DeLeon without a high upside 2nd prospect?

I absolutely agree they aren't available and I wouldn't think twice about giving Deleon and Alvarez for Altuve, but he's not Altuve.  I have no doubt that most fans over rate their own prospects, but referring to Dozier as a top 3 second baseman was an example of overrating a player.  They aren't available, and like I said I could have listed more like Gordon, Segura, and a couple more quality second baseman who are as good or near as good as Dozier.  The Twins don't have anyone else to deal with right now because of how many quality second baseman have homes.  I'm not saying the Twins should get fleeced by any means and I wouldn't pretend to know the Twins prospects sufficiently enough to express an opinion about them.  I see the Kernels play the Loons every other season in Cedar Rapids and that's my exposure to the Twins prospects.  All in all, it is probably good the holidays are upon us.  The two teams can separate for a bit and re-think this.  Having read the Dodgers boards and the Twins boards it is easy to understand the trouble agreeing to a second piece.  BTW, I would avoid the dodgers.com message board.  There are about 5-10 people who discuss baseball and know anything.  The rest are trolls and infighting.  

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I'm not sure how much it's been discussed, but I wonder how much of that stubborn approach is to make sure that the rest of the league knows that even though they're "new" they won't be pushovers?

 

You cannot understate this.  This type of trade is not one you Bill Smith. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I've read a lot about a lottery ticket wanted.  How does Edwin Rios look to you Twins fans? Deleon+?+ Rios.  Pickler sounds like a sufficient 4th piece.   Rios tore the cover off the ball last year.  I believe I read that he was a shortstop in high school or most of his life, but absolutely doesn't have the glove to play short.  They've been trying to figure out if he has the glove to be a  3rd baseman or if he's a 1st baseman.  Bellinger has him blocked at 1st and Turner will be playing 3rd for the foreseeable future.   There is also another young first baseman at low A, Isabel.  

 

I like him.  Young for his league and put up a 1.110 OPS in A+.  still respectable in AA after his promotion.  For a system without a ton of upside at 3B behind Sano, he's not a bad get as an extra piece. Again, I don't call this the second piece, but if the deal was De Leon, Alvarez, and Rios instead of Brock Stewart, I'd probably take it.

[AZTwin]

I got an idea. Since dodgers love prospects so much let's offer them Tyler Jay, Daniel Palka, Felix Jorge and Aaron Slegers for Clayton kershaw

[70charger]

I'd like to interject something here. If we take Fangraphs' word for it, then over the last three years, sorted by WAR, Dozier is a top three second baseman. He's #3, in fact.

 

Here's the link (I really hope it works): http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=2b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=21,d

 

Basically, over the last three years, he's been outpaced in fWAR by only Altuve and Kinsler. Saying "he's no Altuve" isn't terribly correct either, because the difference averaged out by season is only 0.76 WAR. Less than a win. I'd say that's pretty damn close.

 

Objectively, Brian Dozier has a good case as a top 3 second baseman in all of baseball.

[70charger]

 

Then Dozier is getting extra trade value for availability, not for "top 3 talent". I think that is a distinction worth making -- the former, you can wait to see if someone else comes available. The latter, you're never going to find someone better.

Also, I think the poster he was responding to was looking for significant 3rd and even 4th prospects. I think everyone here agrees that we want a significant 2nd piece.

 

Following on to my prior post, given that he actually is top 3 talent, his availability bonus certainly ought to get the Twins a significant second piece. I take De Leon plus Alvarez for sure, and I don't sweat the third or fourth pieces. If, as a poster who shall remain nameless is correct, this is the basic framework of the trade, then great. I respect the Twins' front office for not caving on the third and fourth piece, but I do hope they don't overplay their hand.

[sthpstm]

 

Reading some dodger forums and they are absolutely delusional. They think de Leon, Stewart and Calhoun should get it done and is overpaying. The one poster wanted dozier and polanco for that package. They are nuts. We have no need for Calhoun at all unless he is a 4th piece. Stewart is 25 year old already with only 1 maybe 2 pitches. De Leon is 24 year old and good prospect but major concern about his shoulder and ability to fool major league hitters. With how far off the fan bases are, I'm assuming we will keep dozier and let dodgers keep looking up at other teams in the NL

I see you're spreading your disregard for Stewart to other threads, but I'll address it in this one.

Yes, Stewart is 25 years old. But he did not pitch in college. So you can't treat him as a standard 25 year old pitcher drafted out of college. He has a greater probability of improving than most 25 year old pitchers. This is reflected in all of his scouting reports, and while mixed they all see 2 above average pitches with a 3rd pitch about average but improving. He has good command and his fastball sits 92+.

He's not a bum. He's not Aaron Slegers. And while he won't be an ace he sounds like at least a serviceable #4 who can pitch in a rotation in 2017 while still having a chance to improve.

I'll also admit some bias because the start I saw him make against the IE 66ers was very impressive.

[AZTwin]

I see you're spreading your disregard for Stewart to other threads, but I'll address it in this one.

Yes, Stewart is 25 years old. But he did not pitch in college. So you can't treat him as a standard 25 year old pitcher drafted out of college. He has a greater probability of improving than most 25 year old pitchers. This is reflected in all of his scouting reports, and while mixed they all see 2 above average pitches with a 3rd pitch about average but improving. He has good command and his fastball sits 92+.

He's not a bum. He's not Aaron Slegers. And while he won't be an ace he sounds like at least a serviceable #4 who can pitch in a rotation in 2017 while still having a chance to improve.

I'll also admit some bias because the start I saw him make against the IE 66ers was very impressive.

Great. Dodgers will be happy they can keep him and Calhoun and give us other prospects then

[Cory Engelhardt]

I'll take Brock Stewart on this twins team any day!