Dozier Trade Discussion Thread

[d-mac]

 

It's a gamble but I don't think we should be trading away Dozier for just anything just to trade him now. That mentality will guarantee a worse return than what we should get.

 

Keeping assets beyond their "sell by" date guarantees you get nothing. I don't know how anybody that followed the Twins the last 5 seasons or so wouldn't have learned that lesson. 

 

And by the way, nobody is saying "Give him away for anything!" That's a strawman. De Leon has already been established as part (and presumably not the whole) of a return. And I think that is a good get. I believe De Leon will give the Twins better future value than Dozier will. I don't mean that he will give the Twins more WAR than Dozier- I mean that he fits what we are trying to do- find young, talented, cost controlled arms to pair with our core of position players and get back to contention 3 years or so down the road. Dozier's added WAR over the next two years is of little value to the Twins. 

[beckmt]

 

This cuts both ways, though -- if you are concerned about Kershaw leaving in two years, and/or big luxury tax penalties coming -- why in the world would you trade multiple young cost-controlled pieces for two years of Dozier?  Those prospects will be their key to contending in a potential post-Kershaw future.

 

They already went deep into the NLCS this year -- they have a good team.  I suspect the Dodgers want to maintain that success level over the long run, rather than load up further for the short term.  (And even if they want to load up in the short term, they might wait until July to do it, when their needs will be clearer.)

You cannot tell Kershaw you have money issues and that will trump winning now.  At that point Kershaw walks and probably signs with one of your major competitors.  That is a disaster you will not recover from. The current Kershaw is irreplaceable.

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

If the Giants were interested and dangling a package around Arroyo and Beede, the Twins might listen.  Arroyo looks like he could take over third from Sano in a couple years and Beede is their best pitching prospect.  I'm not sure how the Twins view those two but it could be something that pushes the Dodgers to pay more.

The Giants had very little in their system and traded just about everything they had when acquiring Moore and the lefty reliever from Milwaukee.  

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

Seems like a guy like C Ruiz would be a happy medium on the 3rd guy

Ruiz was traded to Seattle, but we could give you a Carlos Frias still.

[Steve Lein]

 

Why do we want bellinger? I would rather take another pitcher or 3 instead. Unless he is a stud OF in that he will be playing there for the next 7-10 years. 1B is Sanos home after Mauer leaves. Just my take.

 

I absolutely would prefer Bellinger as the 2nd piece... He's a legit corner bat, to replace the power bat you're getting rid of, and can move Eddie to 4th OF-er and/or take over for Mauer at 1B just like he would take over for A-Gon with the Dodgers down the line.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Ruiz was traded to Seattle, but we could give you a Carlos Frias still.

 

yuck pass...

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I absolutely would prefer Bellinger as the 2nd piece... He's a legit corner bat, to replace the power bat you're getting rid of, and can move Eddie to 4th OF-er and/or take over for Mauer at 1B just like he would take over for A-Gon with the Dodgers down the line.

 

If the offer was De Leon, Bellinger, quasi-decent 3rd piece, I'd definitely do it.  The problem though is that the Dodgers were planning on using Bellinger in 2017, which makes that one a bit more difficult for them, especially with Dozier being a win now move.  Given the org needs, I'd rather have Alvarez, even with more risk. We need good pitching badly.

 

De Leon, Alvarez, Stewart.  That's what I want for Christmas.  That's two arms ready now allowing us to potentially trade Santiago and possibly Santana leaving us with a starting five of Berrios, De Leon, May, Stewart, and Gibson.  2017 might be a bit rough, but I really like how that pans out in 2018 and beyond.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

You cannot tell Kershaw you have money issues and that will trump winning now.  At that point Kershaw walks and probably signs with one of your major competitors.  That is a disaster you will not recover from. The current Kershaw is irreplaceable.

Kershaw is almost certainly going to the highest bidder in 2 years regardless of whether they trade for Dozier now.

 

And it's pretty baseless to suggest that Kershaw's attitude could be permanently soured by whether they acquire Dozier.  In terms of "commitment to winning", the Dodgers have made a bunch of moves during Kershaw's career equivalent or better than acquiring Dozier, and probably will again in the next two years (even moreso if they don't sacrifice all of these prospects for Dozier right now).

[nicksaviking]

 

I absolutely would prefer Bellinger as the 2nd piece... He's a legit corner bat, to replace the power bat you're getting rid of, and can move Eddie to 4th OF-er and/or take over for Mauer at 1B just like he would take over for A-Gon with the Dodgers down the line.

 

I think I like Bellinger the most too. I know the team needs pitching, but he looks like the best odds to be a superstar to me.

 

I also wouldn't mind moving Eddie, but perhaps actually not to the bench but actually moving him, he's got to have at least some value with how controllable he is. I then wouldn't mind signing a free agent corner bat since that looks to be a huge buyers market this year. Of course then I'd also look to move that free agent corner bat at the deadline because I'm a sucker for perpetual trade rumors.

[Steve Lein]

 

If the offer was De Leon, Bellinger, quasi-decent 3rd piece, I'd definitely do it.  The problem though is that the Dodgers were planning on using Bellinger in 2017, which makes that one a bit more difficult for them, especially with Dozier being a win now move.  Given the org needs, I'd rather have Alvarez, even with more risk. We need good pitching badly.

 

De Leon, Alvarez, Stewart.  That's what I want for Christmas.  That's two arms ready now allowing us to potentially trade Santiago and possibly Santana leaving us with a starting five of Berrios, De Leon, May, Stewart, and Gibson.  2017 might be a bit rough, but I really like how that pans out in 2018 and beyond.

 

Nope I get all that. I think we agree on all counts, I would just personally prefer De Leon/Bellinger to De Leon/Alvarez.

 

Alvarez is as risky of a pitching prospect as you can find. I think his risk of injury before he even reaches the majors is just as big as his huge potential.

 

I would be happy with either package, though.

[DodgerFan1234]

This is for informational purposes.  I haven't seen it linked to this site but here's a Dodger minor league site with video of several Dodger prospects for you to peruse, including Yadier Alvarez, the prospect the Dodgers have (not) agreed to trade.

 

https://minorleaguedodgers.com/2016/08/27/yadier-alvarez-great-lakes-highlights-2/

[AZTwin]

Ruiz was traded to Seattle, but we could give you a Carlos Frias still.

Sorry. Meant Keibert Ruiz

[Cory Engelhardt]

Does anyone remember the wall to wall coverage of the Vatican in 2012 or 2013 (can't remember now) when they were working on naming the new pope. The coverage on tv in the states was to watch a chimney that had black smoke coming out of it, but that whenever the new pope was chosen, white smoke would appear to announce to the world that there was a new pope chosen.

I wish target field has a smoke signal to let us know when a trade of Dozier has actually happened

[darin617]

The one team not mentioned that could turn into a sleeper to sneak into the Dozier sweepstakes could be the Pirates. Deal Andrew McCutchen to the Mets for prospects which could allow to move Josh Harrison back into a super utility role which he already has done in the past. The deal would be great for Pittsburgh to free up some more money by dealing McCutchen and giving one of their top prospects Austin Meadows a spot in center field.

The Pirates could either flip a prospect from the Mets deal along with a few of their own to land Dozier. Just a thought since they have 5 prospects in the top 75 list.

[jimmer]

 

The one team not mentioned that could turn into a sleeper to sneak into the Dozier sweepstakes could be the Pirates. Deal Andrew McCutchen to the Mets for prospects which could allow to move Josh Harrison back into a super utility role which he already has done in the past. The deal would be great for Pittsburgh to free up some more money by dealing McCutchen and giving one of their top prospects Austin Meadows a spot in center field.

The Pirates could either flip a prospect from the Mets deal along with a few of their own to land Dozier. Just a thought since they have 5 prospects in the top 75 list.

If the Pirates move McCutchen it's because they are rebuilding.  Getting a 30 year old 2B for 2 years doesn't accomplish that.

[drivlikejehu]

 

This is exactly the kind of analysis that I've been trying to do in order to inform my expectations. Where did you come up with your numbers?

 

I used the 2015 version of your source #1, so that's why my index numbers were lower. But the actual prospect value in a trade is complicated by the information asymmetry, because the prospect value chart is derived mostly from prospects that stayed in their organization.

 

To put it another way, there are historical "top 100" prospects as a group, and then top 100 prospects that were traded as a sub-group. I don't know how much specific data/analysis is out there, but trades of MLB players show clearly that traded players under-perform relative to those that stay in an organization. Their pre-trade organization is better able to predict future value, and understandably more likely to part ways with players they are pessimistic about (at least relative to league-wide expectations).

 

If the Dodgers truly believed in De Leon as a top-of-rotation starter, he wouldn't be on the table for Dozier. So for either health or ability reasons, the Dodgers feel he is a trade-able asset. The Twins valuation has to account for this information, and discount De Leon accordingly in comparison to his perceived prospect status. I imagine this is why the trade hasn't happened. 

 

If I'm the Twins, I wouldn't insist on De Leon being in the deal. If the Dodgers are claiming he's so incredibly valuable, I just don't see how the gap can be closed. The Twins simply can't accept that at face value. So either the Dodgers can say all of their prospects are hugely valuable, which is not credible and means they just want to fleece the Twins, or they can put together a package with more depth that isn't quite as MLB-ready. That still would be fine for the Twins if the value is there.

[darin617]

 

If the Pirates move McCutchen it's because they are rebuilding.  Getting a 30 year old 2B for 2 years doesn't accomplish that.

The Pirates would move McCutchen because he still has some value and they would free up money as well. It would also free up a spot for Austin Meadows the #9 prospect in the minors. It is called retooling and not rebuilding and would make them a better team as well.

[jimmer]

 

The Pirates would move McCutchen because he still has some value and they would free up money as well. it is called retooling and not rebuilding and would make them a better team as well.

You can try to make it sound like a good idea if you like, but they don't do that.  It'd be a bad move by them.

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

Yes, he's had a fine run the last couple of years. But can we please have some perspective on this thread? The poster I replied too has mentioned before 2 MLB/ MLB ready starters or no deal. Dozier is a luxury addition for the Dodgers. Would they like to have a power hitting 2B? Sure, anyone would. Do they need him to make the playoffs? No. Do they need him to make the NLCS? Probably not.

All I've been saying is the Twins need the Dodgers prospects more than the Dodgers need Dozier.

 

I disagree. The Twins do have good pitching prospects coming up. What they need is something to help the team out NOW, not three to five years from now. That's why they need two MLB-ready or near-ready starting pitchers for Dozier.

 

If you trade the best hitter we have for one starter and prospects, you are dooming the 2017 and 18 Twins. Can you say "full rebuild mode?"  I don't think the new Twins' brain trust was brought in for a "Let's win later" attitude.

[Monkeypaws]

Gonna play devil's advocate....

 

Different situation, but when it came time to decide what to do with Torii, and the Twins let him go and he signed the 5 year deal with the Angels, I do remember hearing a lot of people saying, "have fun paying 36 year old Hunter 18 million." Well, that 36 year old did slash .313/.365/.451, drove in 92. He hit 105 home runs over the course of that deal, and still had something left in the tank. Turns out he wasn't about to decline as predicted.

 

Dozier isn't Hunter, but the assumption is Dozier will fall off, never have his present value, etc. Well, he has improved his slugging every year he's been on the Twins. Who's to say the last half of last season was an aberration, when is was part of a greater overall trend of improvement? Perhaps he's about to take it to the next level. He has only 4.5 years MLB experience. There could be a lot left in the tank.

 

I equate this situation more akin to that of Hunter, Santana, and Cuddyer, homegrown good guys who can play(ie the kind of guys they should keep), to that of Willingham or others who had peak value that slipped through TRs fingers.

 

The Dodgers ain't exactly offering a king's ransom at this point if it's DeLeon and lesser pieces. I think Falvey is right to wait until they give him an offer he can't refuse. One thing Twins fans should be aware of  is that prospects are never a sure thing.

 

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

I'm getting tired of waiting for a deal but patience is a virtue. I don't think we need 2 MLB ready SP. The inn is full.

 

Get De Leon, Alvarez, and whatever else you can negotiate. With this for SP next year, you have...

 

Santana

Gibson

Hughes

Berrios

De Leon

May

Duffey

Santiago

Mejia

 

That's 9 options. Why do we need more? I get it if you trade Santana or Santiago or both, but that doesn't seem pretty hot right now. De Leon helps now and hopefully Alvarez helps later. Both are worth it. Get them and whatever additional fodder you can get and call it a day. If the Dodgers won't offer it, then move on with Dozier and groom what you have in the system for the future.

On this list, the only truly dependable starters you have are Santana and maybe DeLeon. there's a reason why the Twins' starting rotation is targeted for change - it was not good in 2016. Relying on the same starters in 2017, with only one addition (De Leon) is not enough to put the Twins back into contention. That's why, if Dozier is traded, it needs to be for two MLB-ready starters.

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

And the more we act with urgency, the more leverage we give up. The more we 'need' to 'do it now' the less we'll get. I'm fine with holding firm until we get quality pieces 1, 2 and 3

I agree. That's why the new top brass says they are fine with keeping Dozier unless they get wowed. 

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

Well then you may be left holding the check. A bird in hand is better than two in the bush. 

You are right, a bird in the hand (Dozier) is worth AT LEAST two SP in the bush...

 

Merry Christmas everyone.

[Mr. Brooks]

I disagree. The Twins do have good pitching prospects coming up. What they need is something to help the team out NOW, not three to five years from now. That's why they need two MLB-ready or near-ready starting pitchers for Dozier.

 

If you trade the best hitter we have for one starter and prospects, you are dooming the 2017 and 18 Twins. Can you say "full rebuild mode?" I don't think the new Twins' brain trust was brought in for a "Let's win later" attitude.

If the Twins think they can win in 2017 or 2018 they don't make Dozier available in the first place.

[Otto von Ballpark]

The Pirates would move McCutchen because he still has some value and they would free up money as well. It would also free up a spot for Austin Meadows the #9 prospect in the minors. It is called retooling and not rebuilding and would make them a better team as well.

Maybe a better team for 2 years, but the frugal Pirates need those prospects to be competitive long term. They can't afford to give up anything equivalent to De Leon and Alvarez for 2 years of Dozier.

[Riverbrian]

 

I'm going to want the guys that the Dodgers don't want to give up. 

 

Acquiring Dozier should hurt a little. 

 

The Dodgers getting Dozier and keeping the guys they want to keep doesn't sit well with me. 

 

Hold out for it and keep Dozier if you don't get it. 

 

 

 

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

I'm going to want the guys that the Dodgers don't want to give up.

By definition, doesn't that preclude any trade from happening? As soon as the Dodgers are willing to give someone up, you don't want them anymore?

[specialiststeve]

Need a bat to come back in the deal. Twin's reportedly want Bellinger and that is the hangup as the Dodgers are balking on that. I agree with those that say we need to wait and get what we want or pass. The Dodgers are in full win now mode and Dozier could/would be a perfect fit. They need right handed bat and 2nd basemen. He is a quality guy and would be great there. For that matter we wait. I wait for De Leon, Bellinger and Alvarez. They are likely trying to push Puig in the deal in Bellingers place.

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

I'm going to want the guys that the Dodgers don't want to give up. 

 

Acquiring Dozier should hurt a little. 

 

The Dodgers getting Dozier and keeping the guys they want to keep doesn't sit well with me. 

 

Hold out for it and keep Dozier if you don't get it. 

Amen!

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

Need a bat to come back in the deal. Twin's reportedly want Bellinger and that is the hangup as the Dodgers are balking on that. I agree with those that say we need to wait and get what we want or pass. The Dodgers are in full win now mode and Dozier could/would be a perfect fit. They need right handed bat and 2nd basemen. He is a quality guy and would be great there. For that matter we wait. I wait for De Leon, Bellinger and Alvarez. They are likely trying to push Puig in the deal in Bellingers place.

Ditto!!