Dozier Trade Discussion Thread

[d-mac]

 

You only get to trade Dozier once though. And if you don't maximize his value, you'll regret it. It's not the end of the world if he's your starting second baseman in April if you don't get something resembling the Knoblauch trade in terms of talent.

 

Sure, but timing is the most important factor (that a team can control) for maximizing a return is timing. The time is now. The risk he loses value between now and July is greater than the upside of increased potential demand/urgency at the deadline since he's a position player. Demand/Urgency really only gets exaggerated around the deadline for pitchers. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

 

http://www.fanragsports.com/mlb/dorn-dodgers-need-trade-brian-dozier-despite-high-cost/

New article says the dodgers should give up de Leon and Bellinger and bite the bullet to get dozier

it seems like the OP is glossing over the common perception that Dozier did hit 42 home runs but is not expected to do so again. In the context of 30 home runs do you give up De Leon and Bellinger? I hope so, but that's a lot o close to major league ready talent for 2 years of team control.

[markos]

 

I'm in the minority here as I don't like De Leon much.  Shoulder soreness terrifies me.  I don't like that he's short and I think his ceiling in limited.  Too much risk for me.  I like him more than Beede but I probably like Arroyo more.  But I also don't know anything and am just basing this off of a few different websites.  Ideally, the Twins have a lot more information and smarter people to review it.

I asked Sickels about Beede vs De Leon after he posted his Giants prospect list:

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2016/12/20/14025292/san-francisco-giants-top-50-prospects-for-2017#408705117

 

Interesting responses from various people. I can see a decent case made that Beede is the better prospect. Although it seems like he has been around forever, Beede is almost a year younger than De Leon. And he has shown way more durability. 

 

Also, it should be pointed out that the Giants have historically been pretty willing to trading prospects. 

[FargoFanMan]

Why do we want bellinger? I would rather take another pitcher or 3 instead. Unless he is a stud OF in that he will be playing there for the next 7-10 years. 1B is Sanos home after Mauer leaves. Just my take.

[gunnarthor]

 

I asked Sickels about Beede vs De Leon after he posted his Giants prospect list:

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2016/12/20/14025292/san-francisco-giants-top-50-prospects-for-2017#408705117

 

Interesting responses from various people. I can see a decent case made that Beede is the better prospect. Although it seems like he has been around forever, Beede is almost a year younger than De Leon. And he has shown way more durability. 

 

Also, it should be pointed out that the Giants have historically been pretty willing to trading prospects. 

Yeah, I agree with a lot of those comments - De Leon probably has the better stuff but Beede is more durable.  (Although I'm not convinced that Beede's stuff won't play up better).  De Leon could be a lot better at the end of the day but a bigger risk.  -shrug-   Hopefully the Twins get a good return.

[gunnarthor]

 

Why do we want bellinger? I would rather take another pitcher or 3 instead. Unless he is a stud OF in that he will be playing there for the next 7-10 years. 1B is Sanos home after Mauer leaves. Just my take.

Bellinger is a pretty good bat who the Twins could put into the OF and replace Rosario.  I think he's comparable to Kepler - similar size, similar break out but younger - more power, fewer walks.  Probably a top 30 prospect.  I'd love for him to be included.  They could also move Bellinger or Kepler to first, bench Mauer and have a pretty rangy OF with Rosario.  And that puts Sano at DH in a few years.

[d-mac]

I don't know if anybody has posted this yet, but here is a great article that just appeared at fangraphs. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-twins-should-take-jose-de-leon-while-they-can/

[Cory Engelhardt]

I don't know if anybody has posted this yet, but here is a great article that just appeared at fangraphs. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-twins-should-take-jose-de-leon-while-they-can/

De Leonwould be a great get. Liked the article

[d-mac]

 

De Leonwould be a great get. Liked the article

 

Elite contact rate in the zone, along with his minor league numbers- that screams top of the rotation stuff. He's got great command and movement on his fastball and one of the best change-ups I've seen in a long time. I don't care if his breaking ball is ever better than average if he's got two plus pitches with plus control and command. Really, my only knock on him is durability. 

[gunnarthor]

Seems like fanrag is working for us and fangraphs is working for the Dodgers.

[drjim]

Seems like fanrag is working for us and fangraphs is working for the Dodgers.

Team fanrag!

[Squirrel]

Sure, but timing is the most important factor (that a team can control) for maximizing a return is timing. The time is now. The risk he loses value between now and July is greater than the upside of increased potential demand/urgency at the deadline since he's a position player. Demand/Urgency really only gets exaggerated around the deadline for pitchers.

And the more we act with urgency, the more leverage we give up. The more we 'need' to 'do it now' the less we'll get. I'm fine with holding firm until we get quality pieces 1, 2 and 3

[drjim]

Elite contact rate in the zone, along with his minor league numbers- that screams top of the rotation stuff. He's got great command and movement on his fastball and one of the best change-ups I've seen in a long time. I don't care if his breaking ball is ever better than average if he's got two plus pitches with plus control and command. Really, my only knock on him is durability.

I think the durability question is why the Twins are right to hold out for the right package.

 

I suppose the counter is that durability is the reason he's even available.

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

I'm sticking with my prediction, Dozier for JDL, Alverez, and Chris Anderson.

The Dodgers would trade Anderson for a bag of balls at this point.

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

If the Dodgers are indeed offering both DeLeon and Alvarez and the Twins are holding out for even more then they'll deserve it if the deal falls through.

 

I get the Twins want an unbelievable package for Dozier but in those two alone you'd get one MLB ready pitcher who is among the top prospects in baseball plus another young stud who throws 100. You really only need throw-ins at that point.

 

Maybe the Twins should throw in some cash to offset the amount of $$$ the Dodgers have invested in Alvarez. But I frankly don't understand why there would be any holdup if that is indeed the deal. Maybe I'm overvaluing the Dodgers' prospects now ...

Or some international cap space so the Dodgers have a little bit more to offer Otani who they almost had signed out of high school.

[nicksaviking]

 

The Dodgers would trade Anderson for a bag of balls at this point.

 

Sorry, the balls are off the table.

 

The Twins need to intentionally distance themselves from local guys, people around here get way too attached to them.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Remember, the Dodgers dropped out of the Ben Zobrist sweepstakes last winter, despite reasonable terms (he eventually signed for 4/56).

 

If they truly viewed filling 2B as an imperative for the immediate future, I think they just would have signed him.  Nothing has really changed since then to expect they will give up tons of talent for 2 years of Dozier.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I have seen a lot of comments on why the Dodgers should not give what the Twins are asking.  There is an underlying assumption here which may or may not be true.

1.  Kershaw has a 2018 opt-out.  If you are convinced Kershaw will never leave LA even if he opts out(and you can afford him with buco luxury tax penalited), you stance is correct.  If you do not know above is a fact, then failing to set your team up for a late postseason run(be it with Dozier or other viable 2nd base options(this assumes upper tier(Rays, Tigers or Twins)), is asking if you fail to have Kershaw decide to leave for a club that is interested in winning the series(Cubs, Nats, Bosox, Yankees) for starters and you have nothing in return except for what the CBA allows. 

 

This cuts both ways, though -- if you are concerned about Kershaw leaving in two years, and/or big luxury tax penalties coming -- why in the world would you trade multiple young cost-controlled pieces for two years of Dozier?  Those prospects will be their key to contending in a potential post-Kershaw future.

 

They already went deep into the NLCS this year -- they have a good team.  I suspect the Dodgers want to maintain that success level over the long run, rather than load up further for the short term.  (And even if they want to load up in the short term, they might wait until July to do it, when their needs will be clearer.)

[AZTwin]

To confirm: My source continues to say DeLeon and Alvarez are agreed to, it's still down to the 3rd/potential 4th pieces. Dodgers continue to want to trade "meh"/AAAA/PTNBL types, the Twins want legit prospects with potential. If Dodgers offered up a Stewart or Lux as the third piece the deal would already be done.

 

Twins digging in their heels quite a bit, still plenty of time for this trade to happen. Holidays are here now, so source thinks it would be very surprisingly (but not impossible) for the trade to happen before Jan 2nd or so. No immediate rush during this holiday time, the HOT STOVE, cools down a bit for Santa and Hanukkah.

 

They will ultimately find a compromise on the third piece.

Seems like a guy like C Ruiz would be a happy medium on the 3rd guy

[d-mac]

 

And the more we act with urgency, the more leverage we give up. The more we 'need' to 'do it now' the less we'll get. I'm fine with holding firm until we get quality pieces 1, 2 and 3

 

Well then you may be left holding the check. A bird in hand is better than two in the bush. 

[d-mac]

 

I think the durability question is why the Twins are right to hold out for the right package.

I suppose the counter is that durability is the reason he's even available.

 

True, but it's hard to find any pitching prospect without durability or injury concerns. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Remember, the Dodgers dropped out of the Ben Zobrist sweepstakes last winter, despite reasonable terms (he eventually signed for 4/56).

 

If they truly viewed filling 2B as an imperative for the immediate future, I think they just would have signed him.  Nothing has really changed since then to expect they will give up tons of talent for 2 years of Dozier.

 

True, and they are falling further behind the Cubs and SF for doing so.  Might make them more desperate knowing Kershaw can become a FA in 2 years...  Nothing quite like telling Kershaw that they don't want to win.

[nicksaviking]

How about the Twins casually ask the Dodgers if they're interested in Polanco and when they say, "Um, what?" the Twins start publically shopping him for starting pitching and openly talk about either competing in 2017 or signing Dozier to a big money extension.

 

See if the Dodgers change their tune then.

[drjim]

 

True, but it's hard to find any pitching prospect without durability or injury concerns. 

 

I don't think that's necessarily true. All pitchers have risk, but not all have had concerns moving through the minors. For example, Berrios.

[doscinco]

True, and they are falling further behind the Cubs and SF for doing so. Might make them more desperate knowing Kershaw can become a FA in 2 years... Nothing quite like telling Kershaw that they don't want to win.

Yes, the Giants, who roughly had the same record post-June as the Twins in 2016.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I don't think that's necessarily true. All pitchers have risk, but not all have had concerns moving through the minors. For example, Berrios.

Very true.

 

I think with pitchers though, that risk is amplified since throwing baseballs tends to lend itself more to injuries than hitting them or catching them.  That has to be priced into those negotiations. We saw what happened with Alex Meyer. He was a good prospect... very good one.  Probably a bit better than De Leon is now, but further from the majors.  Injuries played a large part in why he's still not cracked the majors. 

[Squirrel]

Well then you may be left holding the check. A bird in hand is better than two in the bush.

It's a gamble but I don't think we should be trading away Dozier for just anything just to trade him now. That mentality will guarantee a worse return than what we should get.

[drjim]

 

Very true.

 

I think with pitchers though, that risk is amplified since throwing baseballs tends to lend itself more to injuries than hitting them or catching them.  That has to be priced into those negotiations. We saw what happened with Alex Meyer. He was a good prospect... very good one.  Probably a bit better than De Leon is now, but further from the majors.  Injuries played a large part in why he's still not cracked the majors. 

 

Agree. That's why I said "all pitchers" and not "all prospects".

 

With all the talk about injury prevention, by far the best indicator of future injury in a pitcher is previous injury. The is heightened risk for someone like De Leon who has had injury concerns in recent seasons. Shoulders are especially dicey.

 

De Leon is still an acceptable primary piece, but that enhanced risk would make me want more valuable additional pieces.

[d-mac]

 

I don't think that's necessarily true. All pitchers have risk, but not all have had concerns moving through the minors. For example, Berrios.

 

Actually, Berrios did have concerns- particularly about his height preventing him from controlling home runs in the majors and the lack of height affecting his long term durability.

 

But we know that a lot of that was nonsense- there isn't much correlation between height and durability/injuries or home run rate. For the latter, command is the most important piece. 

[nicksaviking]

 

Seems like fanrag is working for us and fangraphs is working for the Dodgers.

 

Damn it, score one for Fangraphs:

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/nl-west-notes-rockies-rollins-giants-de-leon.html

 

Come on MLBTR show some love for Fanrag!