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Dozier Trade Discussion Thread

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Just reported an update via twitter: basically talks between clubs are getting re-engaged. 

 

What is your twitter name?

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  • I think that the Surplus Value framework is more or less correct for valuing players, but I think that the specifics currently used by the larger sabermetric community are limited, and possibly incorr

  • If the Dodgers are gonna low-ball the crap out of the Twins, I don't care. That is not a reason to give in. The Twins are still a 100 loss potential without Dozier, and De Leon added in going into 201

  • I have never accepted that premise. Not trading him now does not preclude a future trade.   But keeping him is still clearly better than making a bad trade, that has too light a return, and doesn't ma

 

 

The market for Dozier just never manifested into allowing them to get a big return. I agree that JDL alone is not enough for Dozier but JDL is the type of pitching prospect the Twins should be going after.

 

Dodgers still need a 2B and the Twins have a logjam. A DeLeon for Jorge Polanco & Byung-Ho Park deal makes a lot of sense for both teams IMO.

I would hate to see Byung-Ho Park traded. Not sure how good a fit he would be for a NL team. A healthy year and 550 ab's would be a great year. We just saw a glimpse of his power, if he can stay healthy and get his ab's we could see another 30+ hr hitter.

George Bush endorses this post:

 

Post of the year...and it's not even February.

According to Dave's tweet, it seems that the Dodgers pinged the Twins today.

 

So if true, my best uninformed guess is that the Dodgers either capitulated and met a Twins offer and news will break this evening, or forget it because the Dodgers contacted the Twins about something unrelated to Dozier. The Twins were pretty clear that they're not negotiating this right now. Does that sound about right?

 

Just reported an update via twitter: basically talks between clubs are getting re-engaged. 

 

Hope that's the case. The deal makes way too much sense.  Hoping they called around and realized that De Leon and couch change wasn't going to get them Forsyth or Kinsler either.

 

According to Dave's tweet, it seems that the Dodgers pinged the Twins today.

So if true, my best uninformed guess is that the Dodgers either capitulated and met a Twins offer and news will break this evening, or forget it because the Dodgers contacted the Twins about something unrelated to Dozier. The Twins were pretty clear that they're not negotiating this right now. Does that sound about right?

 

yeah, apparently they want to trade for Danny Santana.  I hear he can play 2B.

 

Hope that's the case. The deal makes way too much sense.  Hoping they called around and realized that De Leon and couch change wasn't going to get them Forsyth or Kinsler either.

I think if Dozier played on a team with better supporting players his average would go up with less pressure having to try to carry a team and would put up numbers like Kinsler.

I will say this much: I believe that Dave has a source he adamantly believes within one of the organizations, and that source remains optimistic, and there may even be continued communications. I used to be a meteorologist and I know better than anyone that, whatever the indications may be, they are not necessarily conclusively predictive.  So, Dave may be accurate, AND it might be accurate that the trade never happens. There is always a little bit of the forecaster in the forecast. 

So...

 

What have i missed?

A whole lot of back and forth. Sans that, nothing.

 

Dozier has been traded to the Toronto Maple Leafs for Kevin Durant, a 1987 Superbowl ring, and a cardboard cutout of Pele.

 

If you over look his skating ability. 

 

Dozier will be a nice fit for the Leafs. 

 

Auston Matthews could use a Veteran Mentor with Power and someone who is an expert in the correct spelling of first names. 

Just reported an update via twitter: basically talks between clubs are getting re-engaged.

 

The Dodgers just missed the Twins, and wanted to hear their voice.

 

I will say this much: I believe that Dave has a source he adamantly believes within one of the organizations, and that source remains optimistic, and there may even be continued communications. I used to be a meteorologist and I know better than anyone that, whatever the indications may be, they are not necessarily conclusively predictive.  So, Dave may be accurate, AND it might be accurate that the trade never happens. There is always a little bit of the forecaster in the forecast. 

 

Like a Meteorologist... the data indicates that a trade/storm will happen somewhere. The analysis suggests Los Angeles but the system may slide north and hit San Francisco instead.

 

Or Maybe San Diego

 

 

 

Damn this meteorology is tough.  

Well if it's true the Dodgers re opened talks it "should" be in our favor unless they are being baited about a possible Kinsler/Forsythe deal. If that is the case wish them luck and call their bluff and wait for the second call to get a real offer.

I believe the Dodgers know that there isn't a decent Plan B available when it comes to the 2nd Base Hole. 

 

I believe this because the Dodgers still have that hole at 2B... It's been over a month and the hole is unfilled. 

 

I think the Dodgers have made the phone calls and have realized that nobody is selling. 

 

Kinsler: The Tigers were rumored to be considering moving some players for prospects but JD Martinez and everyone else is still in town. The White Sox have made the Central one team weaker and it looks like the Tigers are going to take another run at it. Therefore Kinsler is not on the market and if a player is not available... He will cost more to make him available. Not to mention the contract extension he will require to give up his no trade.

 

Forsythe: His name is often mentioned. The Rays have a damn good starting rotation... They added Rasmus and Ramos to improve the offense... why would they weaken it. With that rotation... you can't count the Rays out of it. If the Rays front office counted themselves out with that rotation... they need a new front office. If they were to consider it... Bellinger would have to be the guy they asked for. 

 

Profar: Maybe... But...the Rangers can look around the landscape and see that Dodgers have nobody else to trade with just like the Dodgers are looking around at the landscape and noticing that the Twins don't have anybody to trade with. Profar was the Moncada of prospects just a few years back... I assume that Profar will be costly. 

 

Braun/Gennett: Ryan Braun has 20 million a year on his contract until 2021. Yes... the Dodgers can afford it and Yes the Brewers can eat some money but how much will the Brewers eat and why would the Dodgers take on that money when you can trade for Brian Dozier for two years at less that Braun will make in one year. 

 

If you look around the league... It's hard to identify teams that would be sellers at 2B and if they ain't selling... it will be expensive to convince them to be sellers. 

 

I guess I'm saying... If the Twins have been taking a hard stance for a month and not budged... the Dodgers would have filled 2B with Plan B already. The Dodgers haven't and that begs the question... why not? 

 

The Twins may be the only team selling right now. 

I will say this much: I believe that Dave has a source he adamantly believes within one of the organizations, and that source remains optimistic, and there may even be continued communications. I used to be a meteorologist and I know better than anyone that, whatever the indications may be, they are not necessarily conclusively predictive. So, Dave may be accurate, AND it might be accurate that the trade never happens. There is always a little bit of the forecaster in the forecast.

But why should we believe the meteorologist that is predicting snow when more seasoned meteorologist are predicting rain? Sorry Dave but you have been way off in your "reporting".

Edited by TyTY23

Forsythe: His name is often mentioned. The Rays have a damn good starting rotation... They added Rasmus and Ramos to improve the offense... why would they weaken it. With that rotation... you can't count the Rays out of it. If the Rays front office counted themselves out with that rotation... they need a new front office. If they were to consider it... Bellinger would have to be the guy they asked for.

 

The Rays rotation is decent but hardly deserving of accolades. Archer looked mortal in 2016 and they have already dealt Moore and Smyly. In their top 5, they are counting on Alex Cobb coming back after basically missing two seasons, and he is a free agent after 2017. Plus Matt Andriese who looks more like a swingman.

 

They also have a bunch of controlled infielders too: Longoria, Brad Miller, and Matt Duffy in MLB, and top prospect Adames ticketed for AAA. Not to mention former prospects Nick Franklin and Tim Beckham lurking (both topped 100 OPS+ in ~200 MLB PA last season).

 

I could absolutely see that team being willing to move Forsythe for a SP prospect like De Leon, or perhaps even less than that. (Given their financials, they'd also benefit more than most clubs from getting Forsythe's salary off the books.)

Edited by spycake

 

I guess I'm saying... If the Twins have been taking a hard stance for a month and not budged... the Dodgers would have filled 2B with Plan B already. The Dodgers haven't and that begs the question... why not? 

 

Because they know they are a playoff team regardless of who they march out there.  So why overpay in April?  Save your assets and make a mid-season splash when your needs are more clear.

Rays rotation had 3rd best FIP in AL and highest K/9 in AL.

 

Their bullpen was horrible.

Edited by jimmer

Rays rotation had 3rd best FIP in AL and highest K/9 in AL.

Sure, but look at the names. They don't have 5 solid guys anymore. They have 3 plus hoping for a major comeback from Cobb plus a swingman in Andriese.

 

They're not bad, but they could definitely be helped by De Leon or even Stewart.

Edited by spycake

And while it gives me hope that the Dodgers haven't acquired another 2B yet, since they are the only serious buyers, they don't really have to. No one else is likely to swoop in and deal for Dozier or Forstythe right now. Utley isn't going to sign somewhere else until LA goes a different direction.

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There has never been and remains no "real" other suitor for Dozier, not willing to give up what the Twins would require that is.

Depends how long you've been gone.

 

Have you been gone all of 2016? Everybody died. Literally...Everybody

I'm probably still gone.

 

Just how i roll. Now if ever i can get the hang of rocking...

 

But Dozier didn't die did he? Would probably reduce his trade value somewhat.

 


But Dozier didn't die did he? Would probably reduce his trade value somewhat.

He did, but HECK NO! How many dead guys can say they averaged 5WAR the last 4 years!?!

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