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Article: The Brightening Future Of The Twins Rotation


Nick Nelson

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Drafting Jay as high as we did and then trying to turn him into a starter is puzzling. Are we surprised that he can't handle the load?

 

Keith Law, at the time, named Jay the #1 prospect in the draft, and absolutely said he had the best potential in the draft. I don't think he should have been expected to be further along than he has. Even his injury this year wasn't to his shoulder or arm, so I don't understand why people are so down on him.

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Keith Law, at the time, named Jay the #1 prospect in the draft, and absolutely said he had the best potential in the draft. I don't think he should have been expected to be further along than he has. Even his injury this year wasn't to his shoulder or arm, so I don't understand why people are so down on him.

I don't think this is all true. I don't recall anyone ranking Jay as the #1 pitching prospect, much less the #1 overall prospect. He was unanimously in the top-15 and mostly in the top-10, so it wasn't a giant reach for the Twins to pick him at #6. But it was still higher than he was ranked by most analysts. Frankly, I was surprised that they offered him the full slot value. It would have made the pick more understandable if they offered him an underslot deal and saved a few hundred thousand to spend another player or two later in the draft.

 

http://insider.espn.com/mlb/draft/mock/?season=2015&version=1&source=Keith-Law-Big-Board
http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft-preview/?

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Keith Law, at the time, named Jay the #1 prospect in the draft, and absolutely said he had the best potential in the draft. I don't think he should have been expected to be further along than he has. Even his injury this year wasn't to his shoulder or arm, so I don't understand why people are so down on him.

It was a nerve issue in his neck and shoulder. His diagnosis of neuropraxia is considered the least severe peripheral nerve injury but it's just not a great sign for a pitcher who is just getting his career started and already faced questions about handling a starter workload. 

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Keith Law, at the time, named Jay the #1 prospect in the draft, and absolutely said he had the best potential in the draft. I don't think he should have been expected to be further along than he has. Even his injury this year wasn't to his shoulder or arm, so I don't understand why people are so down on him.

 

Keith Law is usually wrong.  I don't mean to disparage the guy -- almost everyone is wrong about prospects about half the time -- but instead I disparage his fans who take his word as gospel. 

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The question is not, do these guys have potential, but, do they have more potential than the top four guys in other organizations?

 

I don't see anything here suggesting these guys are exceptional. Every team has a farm system. If the goal is to win a World Series, unless you can show me our prospects are better than most other teams' prospects, they're not a reason to think we're passing anyone in the standings.  Sure, they might work out. But so might anybody else's prospects.

 

Doesn't mean I won't watch with interest and hope. I buy lottery tickets, too. I have a chance of winning. I just don't have a better chance than anyone else.

 

That's how I feel about these guys leading a championship charge. Sorry.

Edited by by jiminy
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The question is not, do these guys have potential, but, do they have more potential than the top four guys in other organizations?

It's a fair way to look at it. Perhaps a good idea for a future article would be comparing the top five Twins pitching prospects to the top five for other teams in the division. I tend to think Minnesota has more quality depth than most, but without De Leon they are lacking that guy with a true ace profile.  

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Twins top prospects – 2010 (Pitchers only)

3. Kyle Gibson
5. Adrian Salcedo
6. Billy Bullock
11. Carlos Gutierrez
13. David Bromberg
14. B.J. Hermsen
15. Ben Tootle
16. Anthony Slama
17. Matt Bashore
18.  Tom Stuifbergen
19. Jeff Manship,
20. Tyler Robertson

 

Hopefully the current crew will outpace the 2010 SP prospects.

 

edit: source - Not the cheeriest read, but I felt I should note where I got this from.

Edited by Oldgoat_MN
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Twins top prospects – 2010 (Pitchers only)

3. Kyle Gibson

5. Adrian Salcedo

6. Billy Bullock

11. Carlos Gutierrez

13. David Bromberg

14. B.J. Hermsen

15. Ben Tootle

16. Anthony Slama

17. Matt Bashore

18. Tom Stuifbergen

19. Jeff Manship,

20. Tyler Robertson

 

Hopefully the current crew will outpace the 2010 SP prospects.

 

edit: source - Not the cheeriest read, but I felt I should note where I got this from.

Two thought:

1-Manship was ranked WAY too low.

2-The positions prospects must have been amazing. (Or alternatively, "you should see the other guy!")

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Two thought:
1-Manship was ranked WAY too low.
2-The positions prospects must have been amazing. (Or alternatively, "you should see the other guy!")

Of the rest, Ramos leads the group with career 9.9 WAR (Baseball-Reference).

 

But that's OK. We got 2 months of Matt Capps for him. (then we were able to sign him for another year!)

Edited by Oldgoat_MN
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