Article: Twins Roster Projection 2017: Version 1.0

[IndianaTwin]

 

Good job analyzing the holes in the roster.

 

I am not worried about slots in the rotation for Berrios. Teams routinely use 7-8 starting pitchers during a season. "Too many" starting pitchers will quickly sort itself out in April when someone is inevitably hurt. The 10 day disabled list will also encourage the AAA shuttle if a starter is going to miss his next start. You may see 9-10 starting pitchers used this season.

 

<<clipped>>

 

More than that, actually. Last year 153 guys started a game in the AL. That's an average of more than 10 per team. Of those 121 started at least 5. Among rookies, only three started more than 15 games and none more than 26. And as you note, there may be even more with the shortened DL period. 

 

I'm with you. No need to try pushing an entire MLB season out of Berrios. Odds are slim that he'd make it through unscathed -- he still hasn't gone beyond 170 innings. He was great in Rochester but struggled in Minnesota. Spend April/May in Rochester, maxing out at 80-90 pitches and working out the details of what he learned in the majors.

 

Then bring him up around June 1, looking for a time when his first several starts could slot against weaker teams. He could get still get another 22 or so starts in the majors. That would also keep him fresher for the meaningful October games.

 

Oh wait. Ignore that last sentence. 

[DocBauer]

Yes, as of right now, this is pretty much the roster as I'd see it now. Of course, it's almost 100% sure to change with another FA or two and a probable trade or two forthcoming.

 

I'd say DanSan has the weakest hold on a roster spot despite his athleticism. I so badly want him to develop in to a solid, useful and even exciting and sometimes dangerous role player. I just don't think it's going to happen any longer.

 

Not sure Hughes will be ready to open the season. I'd really have a hard time holding Berrios out of the rotation, even with some ups and downs, just because of talent, potential, and the need to pitch.

[ThejacKmp]

 

It better look nothing close to this come March

 

This is a 90+ loss team with the same old people.  

 

I can take a 90+ loss team full of youth and rebuilding, but not this.  If it looks remotely like this, it would add insult to injury.

 

To play devil advocate: isn't this team better than 2015's playoff contender?

 

I'd argue the rotation (while not good) is likely better than 2015, when Gibson, Pelfrey, Hughes, Milone, 1/2 season of Santana, May, Duffey and Nolasco started multiple games. I think we'd all rather see Berrios, Santiago, Mejia and maybe Gonsalves than Pelfrey, Milone and Nolasco. Again, not a strength but the rotation has a good chance to be better than 2015.

 

The lineup (with or without Dozier) should be pretty good too. There's a lot of young talent that could take a step up - Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Rosario, Vargas, Polanco, JRM, Garver etc. They're going to strike-out a lot but there's a lot of pop and potential there. 2015 had a lot of guys with OPS+ a few points either side of 100 and then Miguel Sano carrying a team. This 2017 lineup is much more balanced and looks potentially dangerous 1-9, especially if Dozier doesn't go anywhere.

 

The bullpen is a big question mark but most bullpens are. The Twins at least have a bunch of young power arms so what they lack in proven veterans they can hopefully make up in depth.

 

Listen, I'm not betting my house on the Twins being a contender in 2017 (though I did drop $20 on them winning the World Series because, hey, why not). But I will say that this team on paper looks better than 2015 and if things break right could do so again. Very rarely do I think a baseball team comes into a season with no chance and the 2017 Twins don't fit that definition.

[ThejacKmp]

 

It makes me cringe every time someone makes excuses for Gibson.  

 

Kind of agree.

 

I think Gibson's greatest defenders who see a return to glory and #2 potential are ignoring his subpar K rate and are getting way too excited about his groundball rate.

 

That said, the people who want to just throw Gibson away are equally insane. He's a young cheap pitcher who doesn't fit the mold of an ace but still has the potential to be a very useful middle-of-the-rotation starter. Those cost money in free agency. He should get a chance to start this year and may prove a nice chip at the deadline or in the offseason (he's not changing a playoff race but there are always teams looking for someone to fill a rotation spot down the stretch). The Twins don't have enough young guys who deserve a spot in the MLB rotation that they can trade Gibson at a low point in value (Berrios is the only one who deserves a shot IMO, Mejia/May/Duffey can compete for that 5th spot and will be used throughout the year regardless).

[Seth Stohs]

 

 

"Gibson was the team’s pitcher of the year in 2015, but an early season injury cost him six months"

 

 

 

What?  The guy made 25 starts last season.  

 

 

Oops... should be 6 weeks... My bad...

[Seth Stohs]

Just a note... in the article I said this is 'probably' how it would look IF the season started today. It wasn't a look at how it will look on Opening Day.

 

Until there's a Dozier trade - and we all know that there is like a 90% chance there will be - and other moves, this is probably how it would look.

 

But yeah, Dozier will get traded for at least one MLB ready pitcher and more, maybe an OF. 

 

Those other moves will also obviously affect others.

 

No, I don't think Danny Santana should be on the roster. No, I dont think Robbie Grossman is a great player, but I do think he'd be OK as a platoon player. Ideally, they make a move so both aren't in it.

 

I would have Berrios in the starting rotation. That said, I also don't believe in putting guys in position to fail. I think he's ready, but it was clear last year that he still had work to do, and that wasn't better by the end of the year. I'd like to see him up, but i won't in any way be offended if they decide that it is best for his career to spend a couple more months in the minor leagues. Same thing with DeLeon, Mejia and others. 

 

I don't think Kintzler will be the closer going into the season. I think he's a nice value as a 7th inning guy who can also get guys out in the 8th and 9th innings, but it's an area we can all be disappointed if on March 1st we still think he'll be the closer. 

 

This article wasn't about some sort of finished product. It's about looking and seeing where the needs are short-term, what is coming down the pipeline in the next 12 months, and where some longer-term needs are.

 

C - they're fine now.

1B - plenty of decent options

2B - right now they're fine. IF Dozier's traded, Polanco goes there.

SS - Stick with Polanco, but if Dozier's traded, have to consider adding someone.

3B - Sano needs to get a legit shot.

LF - Rosario is fine, but a platoon candidate might be good.

CF - They're set.

RF - They're set.

DH - plenty of options, but if they want to add Napoli, OK.

 

SP - There are a lot of options right now, Berrios and Santana the ones that have potential to be very good. Gibson and Santiago could have comeback years. Mejia, Berrios, potentially DeLeon and someone like Stewart... May could be a starter, but he'd be better as a reliever, unless people think that his injuries are solely based on him being a reliever. He can be a decent #3 starter, maybe, or a potential closer.

 

RP - Closer is an area where they could add someone... One year deals might be OK for a reliever or two, but there are several options very close.

 

To read comments like This is anothe r100 loss team with that roster... well, first, that assumes zero improvement from the young guys (which would be very disappointing) and zero improvement from the guys who were injures last year. 

 

It also just isn't the roster that will likely be there Opening Day, so it's not worth even going to that thought yet. 

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

I would put the chance of a Dozier trade closer to 50 percent, not 90 percent. If the Dodgers truly offer both De Leon and Stewart (and a couple throw-ins) for Dozier, the Twins would probably make that deal. I just don't see the Dodgers doing that. They will offer one or the other (De Leon or Stewart) but not both. I believe the Twins want two MLB-close starting pitchers for Dozier. I'm just not convinced the Dodgers (or any other teams) will offer two MLB-ready starters for Dozier.

 

As a result, Seth, your interim analysis is valuable. It's a good exercise, because if the Twins do not trade Dozier, that's what we're left with, unless someone else is traded or signed.

 

And you said at the start this is not expected to be the Twins' April 25-man roster.

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

For the record, I hope Dozier is not traded, but if he is, the Twins need to get great value for him. I think, though, the front office is perfectly fine with going into the regular season with BD on the roster.

[DocBauer]

 

Just a note... in the article I said this is 'probably' how it would look IF the season started today. It wasn't a look at how it will look on Opening Day.

 

Until there's a Dozier trade - and we all know that there is like a 90% chance there will be - and other moves, this is probably how it would look.

 

But yeah, Dozier will get traded for at least one MLB ready pitcher and more, maybe an OF. 

 

Those other moves will also obviously affect others.

 

No, I don't think Danny Santana should be on the roster. No, I dont think Robbie Grossman is a great player, but I do think he'd be OK as a platoon player. Ideally, they make a move so both aren't in it.

 

I would have Berrios in the starting rotation. That said, I also don't believe in putting guys in position to fail. I think he's ready, but it was clear last year that he still had work to do, and that wasn't better by the end of the year. I'd like to see him up, but i won't in any way be offended if they decide that it is best for his career to spend a couple more months in the minor leagues. Same thing with DeLeon, Mejia and others. 

 

I don't think Kintzler will be the closer going into the season. I think he's a nice value as a 7th inning guy who can also get guys out in the 8th and 9th innings, but it's an area we can all be disappointed if on March 1st we still think he'll be the closer. 

 

This article wasn't about some sort of finished product. It's about looking and seeing where the needs are short-term, what is coming down the pipeline in the next 12 months, and where some longer-term needs are.

 

C - they're fine now.

1B - plenty of decent options

2B - right now they're fine. IF Dozier's traded, Polanco goes there.

SS - Stick with Polanco, but if Dozier's traded, have to consider adding someone.

3B - Sano needs to get a legit shot.

LF - Rosario is fine, but a platoon candidate might be good.

CF - They're set.

RF - They're set.

DH - plenty of options, but if they want to add Napoli, OK.

 

SP - There are a lot of options right now, Berrios and Santana the ones that have potential to be very good. Gibson and Santiago could have comeback years. Mejia, Berrios, potentially DeLeon and someone like Stewart... May could be a starter, but he'd be better as a reliever, unless people think that his injuries are solely based on him being a reliever. He can be a decent #3 starter, maybe, or a potential closer.

 

RP - Closer is an area where they could add someone... One year deals might be OK for a reliever or two, but there are several options very close.

 

To read comments like This is anothe r100 loss team with that roster... well, first, that assumes zero improvement from the young guys (which would be very disappointing) and zero improvement from the guys who were injures last year. 

 

It also just isn't the roster that will likely be there Opening Day, so it's not worth even going to that thought yet. 

Nailed it!!

 

Absolutely no reason financially, and nobody being blocked, for this team to add an infielder, a quality 4th OF, and a bounce back (possibly flip-able) closer option to help secure what games we have a chance to win while auditioning various young RP like Chargois.

 

Even then, I could still see a bench spot for Grossman as a 5th OF, solid PH/DH bat unless we keep 3 1B/DH options, which is possible.

[Miraclebat]

 

It makes me cringe every time someone makes excuses for Gibson.  

It also makes me cringe when I see all the love for May.  His upside is a 4.5 ERA and a #4 starter on a good team.  Moving him to the starting rotation...back to the bullpen......   He should be thankful he has no options to be sent to AAA.

[Mr. Brooks]

It also makes me cringe when I see all the love for May. His upside is a 4.5 ERA and a #4 starter on a good team. Moving him to the starting rotation...back to the bullpen...... He should be thankful he has no options to be sent to AAA.

His career FIP is 3.71. I don't think you know what the word upside means.

[jimmer]

 

His career FIP is 3.71. I don't think you know what the word upside means.

and his FIP as a starter in 2015 was 3.35.  AT the time he was demoted, easily the best of all the starters.  He was on his way to being a possible 4 WAR starting pitcher when he was demoted.  In only 16 starts he got 1.8.

Edited December 17, 2016 by jimmer

[tobi0040]

Has the new leadership team made any comments about May?

 

Their are a few items I will use to gauge the new front office. May starting is one. They nailed letting Plouffe go and hopefully get a haul for Dozier.

[The Wise One]

 

So last year's AAA dominance didn't mean anything, but a couple spring training starts will? I don't agree with that as how to make decisions. Last year's minor league dominance meant nothing, but this year it would?

 

Frank Viola was awful at first. He learned by actually being in the majors and facing MLB hitters. 

Damn, Al Kaline learned by being in the majors at age 18. Let us put all of the 18 year olds in the majors because Al Kaline was successful so therefore every prospect should be

[The Wise One]

 

His career FIP is 3.71. I don't think you know what the word upside means.

When does fip stabilize for a pitcher?  May has about 200 innings in the major league.  What fip measures happens on  between 25 and 30% of the batters faced.  You are basing an opinion of upside on fip that may or may not be relevant for May due to small sample size

Keep in mind that as a starter May had an xfip and Sierra of neat 4.  So is Mays upside that of a league average pitcher a positive?

Edited December 18, 2016 by The Wise One

[ken]

 

 

His career FIP is 3.71. I don't think you know what the word upside means.

Nolasco's career FIP is 3.85,not sure that is a sign of upside

[dgwills]

 

When does fip stabilize for a pitcher?  May has about 200 innings in the major league.  What fip measures happens on  between 25 and 30% of the batters faced.  You are basing an opinion of upside on fip that may or may not be relevant for May due to small sample size

Keep in mind that as a starter May had an xfip and Sierra of neat 4.  So is Mays upside that of a league average pitcher a positive?

I agree that using FIP as a way of measuring potential is a mistake. It's really only useful for explaining aberrations in a pitchers career.

Honestly I'd say the upside of a league average starter is good for May. How many of the Twins pitchers were league average last year? He will not be the ace of the next contending team, but you need guys who can eat innings in a 162 game schedule. Better to give him the spot than guys who will not even be  on the next contending team.

[Mr. Brooks]

When does fip stabilize for a pitcher? May has about 200 innings in the major league. What fip measures happens on between 25 and 30% of the batters faced. You are basing an opinion of upside on fip that may or may not be relevant for May due to small sample size

Keep in mind that as a starter May had an xfip and Sierra of neat 4. So is Mays upside that of a league average pitcher a positive?

Yes, if May can become a league average starter that is huge. Do you know how much league average starters cost in FA?

Right now we only have 1 starter that is league average or better.

[Mr. Brooks]

 

 

Nolasco's career FIP is 3.85,not sure that is a sign of upside

Two things.

Nolasco is on the downside of his career, and has enough innings to say the ERA is what it is. May is in his prime and doesn't have enough innings to use ERA as a predictor.

 

Nolasco was a league average starter before he came here. I know that is hard to imagine, given how awful he was here. If May can be pre Twins Nolasco that has huge value because he's still making the league minimum.

[jimmer]

People always talk about under-performing or out-performing his FIP.  One day, we're going to stop thinking FIP needs to match up with ERA eventually as if ERA is the superior stat all along.  Considering ERA is heavily influenced by a team's defense and scorers judgment, it's never going to be the stat that truly judges how a pitcher did.

Edited December 18, 2016 by jimmer

[drjim]

 

People always talk about under-performing or out-performing his FIP.  One day, we're going to stop thinking FIP needs to match up with ERA eventually as if ERA is the superior stat all along.  Considering ERA is heavily influenced by a team's defense and scorers judgment, it's never going to be the stat that truly judges how a pitcher did.

 

No stat truly or perfectly judges how a pitcher did. Even fip is just a number gleaned from three inputs. Important inputs to be sure, but not the be all end all either.

 

I always think of era as being the quickest measure of what happened in the most basic currency (outs and runs), and fip being the quick and dirty measure of what could have happened and may happen in the future based on underlying talent of the pitcher.

[jimmer]

 

No stat truly or perfectly judges how a pitcher did. Even fip is just a number gleaned from three inputs. Important inputs to be sure, but not the be all end all either.

 

I always think of era as being the quickest measure of what happened in the most basic currency (outs and runs), and fip being the quick and dirty measure of what could have happened and may happen in the future based on underlying talent of the pitcher.

except that when doing that, many just figure ERA tells us what the pitcher did, and they judge him on that.

[drjim]

except that when doing that, many just figure ERA tells us what the pitcher did, and they judge him on that.

True, but fip fluctuates quite a bit year by year for pitchers too. It might be slightly more predictive and stable than era, but doesn't really tell us a ton either of what to expect the next season.

[jimmer]

 

True, but fip fluctuates quite a bit year by year for pitchers too. It might be slightly more predictive and stable than era, but doesn't really tell us a ton either of what to expect the next season.

No, you're right. the more predictive stat would be xFIP as opposed to ERA (the worst predictor of future ERA) and FIP.

 

That is, of course, if what you're trying to do is predict future ERA, for whatever reason.  Only SIERA has a better correlation to future ERA.

Edited December 19, 2016 by jimmer

[drjim]

No, you're right. the more predictive stat would be xFIP as opposed to ERA (the worst predictor of future ERA) and FIP (that is, of course, if what you're trying to do is predict future ERA, for whatever reason). Only SIERRA is better.

I thought the new conventional wisdom was that the x of xfip was pretty meaningless.

 

I don't have much opinion on siera, haven't engaged it as much.

[jimmer]

 

I thought the new conventional wisdom was that the x of xfip was pretty meaningless.

I don't have much opinion on siera, haven't engaged it as much.

Yeah, I don't know why it would be considered meaningless and I haven't heard/read that, but I have no doubt some have said/thought that.  

 

But this probably should stop being a discussion about non-traditional stats.

Edited December 19, 2016 by jimmer

[jorgenswest]

I think the difference between FIP and xFIP is home run rate (which requires a large sample) and fly ball rate (smaller sample).

 

The difference between the two does become meaningless by 500 innings pitched.

[The Wise One]

 

I agree that using FIP as a way of measuring potential is a mistake. It's really only useful for explaining aberrations in a pitchers career.

Honestly I'd say the upside of a league average starter is good for May. How many of the Twins pitchers were league average last year? He will not be the ace of the next contending team, but you need guys who can eat innings in a 162 game schedule. Better to give him the spot than guys who will not even be  on the next contending team.

Projecting pitchers. Rick Porcello always had fairly average k/9.  The other 70% doomed him to looking mediocre.  Like a catcher who keeps strikes being called strikes, defense matters. A step up to a good defense did wonders for his results. That is the aspect a team can look at and account for that a estimator can't

Edited December 19, 2016 by The Wise One