Article: Twins Roster Projection 2017: Version 1.0

[Seth Stohs]

It’s never too early to start thinking about what the Twins 2017 roster could look like. Based on players on the 40-man roster and in the minor leagues, it is possible to start putting that 25-man, Opening Day roster together. Of course, it is always subject to change. It’s pretty clear there are trade talks ongoing with several teams. An actual trade will obviously make the below change. There are also free agents that the team will still sign and bring to big league camp, whether they sign big league contracts or minor league deals. So, this is an ever-changing document and will be updated at various times through the off-season.It was a fun exercise putting together this first draft, even if there aren’t as many changes as we would think. But it is a starting point. As you read this, consider where the Twins should focus their attention the rest of the season.

 

 

For this, I am going to go with a 13-hitter, 12-pitcher roster as most teams like to begin the season that way.

 

 

Catchers (2): Jason Castro, John Ryan Murphy

 

Kurt Suzuki’s been the primary Twins catcher the last three years, but that will not be the case in 2017. The Twins new front office regime quickly targeted pitch-framing sensation Jason Castro and signed him to a three-year, $24.5 million contract. He may not hit, but the goal is for him to assist heavily in the improvement of the Twins pitching staff.

 

John Ryan Murphy will be out of options which obviously gives him the advantage over Mitch Garver, who was just added to the Twins 40-man roster last month. Murphy is younger, but Garver is likely the better player. My reports tell me he was much better than Murphy offensively and defensively in 2016, so it’s likely he’ll see some time with the big league club in 2017.

 

Infielders (6): Byungho Park, Joe Mauer, Brian Dozier, Miguel Sano, Jorge Polanco, Eduardo Escobar

 

It’s pretty clear that it is very likely that this alignment will change significantly before spring training. Dozier remains quite likely be be traded, and if that happens Jorge Polanco likely moves to second base and a decision will need to be made at shortstop (Escobar or someone from outside).

 

Joe Mauer will be the primary first baseman. Dozier will be the Twins second baseman until he’s not in the organization. Sano is going to get the opportunity to be the regular third baseman now that Trevor Plouffe is not in the organization. Polanco is out of options and will be playing somewhere because of his bat. Eduardo Escobar was offered arbitration, a wise decision with so many question marks around the infield and his ability to be an option at three of the positions.

 

I believe that it is an either/or situation at DH between Kennys Vargas and Byungho Park. How much of Park’s rookie struggles were related to adjusting to a new league and how much of it was related to his hand and wrist injuries? He does have two option years remaining. The Twins petitioned for an extra option year for Vargas and it was granted, so he also can be sent to Rochester if deemed appropriate. Adam Brett Walker was DFAd and has since been claimed twice. Daniel Palka is now on the 40-man roster so he could potentially be brought up if a DH is needed. Also, Robbie Grossman’s best defensive position is DH.

 

Outfielders (5): Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Robbie Grossman, Danny Santana

 

Byron Buxton did so much in September to hand him the center field job. His defense made it likely even if he hadn’t hit. Max Kepler had a solid rookie season in right field, showing power and defense. Eddie Rosario struggled as a sophomore, enough to be sent to Rochester. He came back and was better, but a platoon option might be good. Robbie Grossman isn’t a good defender, at all, but he can mash left-handed pitchers, which gives him some value.

 

And yes, Danny Santana is still - maybe inexplicably - on the 40-man roster, and he is out of options, so an MLB roster spot still is in his future. Obviously he’s a great athlete. He’s got very good speed and the tools that keep him intriguing. We’d all love to see him put up numbers anywhere near his 2013 rookie campaign, but playing time should be limited.

 

Palka is an option in right field and DH. Zack Granite was also added to the 40-man roster and could be an option in center field if there is injury and he needs to be up for an extended period. Ben Paulsen is a capable replacement level player who will be in AAA unless needed.

 

Starting Pitchers (5): Ervin Santana, Phil Hughes, Kyle Gibson, Hector Santiago, Trevor May

 

Pitching appears to be Derek Falvey’s calling card, and the Twins currently have a long list of pitchers who could start the season in the team’s rotation. There are even more that have a decent shot of getting called up in 2017.

 

Ervin Santana is easily the team’s top starter. He just turned 34 and has two seasons (and an option year) remaining on his contract. While he’s not an “Ace,” he has been a quality MLB starter for more than a decade. Somewhat surprising, his name has not been mentioned in off-season trade rumors. That could obviously change at any time and there are teams where it makes complete sense for him. But as long as he’s on the roster, he’s at the top of the rotation.

 

The Twins offered arbitration to both Hector Santiago and Kyle Gibson. They’ll be around unless traded. Gibson was the team’s pitcher of the year in 2015, but an early season injury cost him six months. With health, he should take a good stride forward again in 2017. Santiago has been a solid starter the last few years. He was even an All-Star a couple years ago. He was not good for his first month with the Twins, but he can be a solid starter. In reality, both could be July trade chips if they pitch well.

 

Trevor May might get a shot to start again, and for right now, I’ll include him here. I think the odds of May starting are not high, but hopefully he gets a real chance. Tyler Duffey should head to spring training with a shot at a rotation spot again. I’m going to go with May here, but Duffey has about the same likelihood. Others will get a shot too, including Jose Berrios and Adelberto Mejia. Berrios is an Opening Day option, but it’s 100% based on his command starting in spring training. Could any of the AA group get to the big leagues in 2017? It’s possible we see Stephen Gonsalves, Kohl Stewart, Felix Jorge, Tyler Jay or even Fernando Romero late in the season.

 

 

Bullpen (7): Brandon Kintzler, Ryan Pressly, JT Chargois, Taylor Rogers, Ryan O’Rourke, Tyler Duffey, Justin Haley.

 

This is another group that could change quickly. I mean, as of today, Brandon Kintzler would likely still be the team’s closer. He had 17 saves last year and did well, but we all know he isn’t the prototype for an MLB closer. It’s also possible that the righty is traded. Ryan Pressly, like Kintzler, was just offered arbitration. He could fit in to the closer role as well, but he’ll certainly be used in late innings again. JT Chargois, like Byron Buxton, seemed to relax and play much, much better in September than previously. He has a chance to be a closer, but I don’t think they would throw him right into the role.

 

Taylor Rogers had a quality rookie season. He had a few flare-ups, but for the most part, he got the job done as well. I think that, as of today, the second lefty reliever role would be a strong competition between Ryan O’Rourke and Buddy Boshers. Depending upon additional Twins free agent signings, they could remain in that role, or they could be DFA candidates. Mason Melotakis is likely to get a shot sometime in 2017 as well. In his return from Tommy John, the Twins handled him carefully in 2016, and they will likely do so for the first half of 2017, but he’ll be up at some point. Also, Glen Perkins is going to be back in 2017. He had shoulder surgery midseason, but the thought is that he could be back and throwing in spring training. I suspect he will start the season on the disabled list, getting a few appearances in rehab games before coming up.

 

I show Tyler Duffey pitching in long relief. With his inability to add a decent third pitch, he is more suited for the bullpen and could team with former Rice teammate JT Chargois in later innings too.

 

If the Twins start the season with a 12-man pitching staff, we have one more spot for the opening of the season. Michael Tonkin could fill that role again. He made the team and stayed on it in large part due to the fact that he was out of options and had to stay with the team. He obviously remains out of options. I’m including Justin Haley as the final bullpen spot. After some of the annual Rule 5 maneuvering, the Twins ended up with the big right-hander who spent the first four seasons of his professional career with the Red Sox. As a Rule 5 pick, he would need to remain with the big league club all season or risk losing him back to the Red Sox (unless the teams work out a trade, which is possible too).

 

At some point during the season, we will likely see more of the hard-throwing relievers drafted by the Twins since 2012. Melotakis is one of them. The others include the likes of Jake Reed, Trevor Hildenberger, Nick Burdi and John Curtiss.

 

 

So there is Roster 2017 version 1.0. Share your thoughts, your areas where you believe that Falvey/Levine should focus.

 

Aside from adding Jason Castro and letting Trevor Plouffe become a free agent, there have not been a lot of moves so far. Obviously it is still very, very early in the off-season yet. The next four weeks will be very busy for the Twins and all other teams.

 

Before spring training, we’ll obviously have resolution on the Brian Dozier situation, one way or the other. That will obviously affect the Twins at both second base and shortstop, but depending on the return, it could also affect two of three other roster spots either now or in the next year or so. Pitching hasn’t really been addressed in any meaningful way yet, even in terms of minor league signings. There are still a lot of relievers available.

 

I also don’t think the overall lack of moves is a bad thing at all.The Terry Ryan tenure ushered in a lot of very good, high-profile, high-ceiling types of prospects. Some of them have debuted in the last year or so. Others will arrive in 2017. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have come in and made just a handful of changes to the front office. Likewise, they may choose to make just a handful of moves to the roster that will help complement the young, potential stars who are taking their lumps in the big leagues but could become very good.

 

Signing some veterans to minor league or low-dollar deals does two things. First, if they’re any good, they can be traded in July as the Twins did with Fernando Abad a year ago.They could also pitch as well as Brandon Kintzler did, allowing the Twins do make a decision on whether to keep them around or deal them in the off-season. Third, if they’re not pitching great, their low-dollar contracts are easy to DFA, making room for talented prospects when they are deemed ready.

 

What are your thoughts? What does your roster look like?

 

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[Cory Engelhardt]

Where we are today, this makes sense.

[beckmt]

I agree, it makes too much sense.  Given May's back issues, I also have him starting, so that somewhat limits my options.  Feel if Santigo or Gibson have good springs, and some of the younger starters look like they should be in Minnesota, that you would trade at least Gibson for some lottery tickets.  This will be more true is Dozier is traded.  Maybe you package Rosario and 2 of these starters to the Rockies for one of the non Parra outfielders(this would probably be light, but may be a starting point, since at least Gibson seems to fit what the Rockies need). 

[Cory Engelhardt]

Any chance, just for the sake of humanity (I am exaggerating) that even if there aren't moves before the next roster projection, that Danny Santana isn't listed on the roster? I think all rational Twins fans will feel better going into the year if ANY replacement level player is listed in his roster spot. A replacement level player is a HUGE upgrade on Santana, and the Twins will be a better projected team because of it.

-

But yeah, a Dozier trade and a few veteran signings will change this projection drastically.

[Platoon]

I agree, with the available choices tuis lineup is in the ball park. Definitely try and get May back in the rotation. I think he broke down 3 times last year in the pen. The only way Robbie G would make my roster, is if he promised to give away all his fielding gloves. A lousy Rosario is better in LF than a good RG. The Dozier thing is like a puzzle piece. Once it's resolved the rest will be easier to fit. That said, I don't see how the team will improve their dirth of quality SP without that happening. He is the classic scenario of getting something out of something you don't need at the current time, and won't end up keeping. If he stays Polanco virtually has to stay at SS. I don't think that's sustainable. If BD moves, I would still love a glove first guy (Vielma?) at that spot. That's not going to happen regardless of whether a trade occurs, but it's what I would do if I was king!

[sorney]

I know this is where we are *today*, but if that is still the roster on opening day...ugh.

[tobi0040]

The best quote in the article was easily "Robbie Grossmans best defensive position is DH". That was a classic.

 

This roster is very similar to last years roster, so that is tough to be super excited but I guess most of the roster spots will hopefully he claimed by young guys. Having said that, I hope the new team looks at the numbers and some take and makes some tweaks to this roster. Like Danny Santana for one

[diehardtwinsfan]

I thought there was some serious talk about Hughes to the pen to make room for Berrios.  Not quite sure I see the point in Berrios starting in AAA.  That said, if they are confident that Hughes will be ready, then I have to think that they need to find a way to remove Santiago. You might need a couple of AAAA type arms in Rochester for depth purposes, but with Gonsalves likely starting in AAA and guys like Jay, Stewart, and Jorge all in AA, that makes the most sense.

[Cory Engelhardt]

I'd have to think, if Dozier is traded and someone like Jose De Leon comes back, that he and Berrios (outside of injury) are in the rotation day 1. I don't know what that means for Santiago or Gibson, but I could very easily see them being shopped at that point too, especially with May probably in the rotation and Mejia also knocking on the door, along with Ervin and Phil Hughes (if he is healthy) or any other moves they may make.

[jimmer]

Offensively, Rosario was the same player in 2016 as he was in 2015, just without the unsustainable amount of triples.  And it's not like the dropoff in triples wasn't predicted by many.  It was easy to see coming.

 

His BB%, his K%, nearly identical.  His BA was nearly identical and his OBP was actually 7 points higher (though still sub .300). The drop was in slg% due to unsustainable amount of triples.

 

He didn't have a sophomore slump. Same player, without the triples.

Edited December 15, 2016 by jimmer

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I'd have to think, if Dozier is traded and someone like Jose De Leon comes back, that he and Berrios (outside of injury) are in the rotation day 1. I don't know what that means for Santiago or Gibson, but I could very easily see them being shopped at that point too, especially with May probably in the rotation and Mejia also knocking on the door, along with Ervin and Phil Hughes (if he is healthy) or any other moves they may make.

 

As it is, with Hughes in the rotation, you have Mejia and Berrios in AAA.  That's not bad from a depth thing, but I'd argue that both really need to be in Minnesota sooner than later. Perhaps the assumption is that 2017 is not a lost season (not sure I agree), but I think the team would be better off getting both of them some major league time, and in Berrios' case, there's really nothing left to prove in the minors.  Mejia didn't spend much time in AAA, so starting there isn't bad from a depth move.

 

and yeah, if they add guys like Stewart and/or De Leon from LA, you've got to dump guys like Santiago.  Heck, if there was a reason to trade Santana, that would be it too. Depth is good, but I don't see it being a good thing when your younger talent is being blocked by guys like Santiago.

[jimmer]

This projected team makes me nauseous.

[Thrylos]

It better look nothing close to this come March  

 

This is a 90+ loss team with the same old people.  

 

I can take a 90+ loss team full of youth and rebuilding, but not this.  If it looks remotely like this, it would add insult to injury.

[Mike Sixel]

Berrios in AAA? Ugh. No thanks. Get the young guys up here and learning in the majors. If Neil Allen isn't the best pitching coach, um, uh, wut?

 

So, last year's team, w/o their only SP prospect up here? Exciting times! 94 losses, here we come!

 

People really think Hughes will be healthy enough to start? IF he is healthy, move him to the bullpen and put Berrios in the rotation. Throw us a bone for the future having some hope. please.

[jimmer]

'The Terry Ryan tenure ushered in a lot of very good, high-profile, high-ceiling types of prospects.'

 

Not sure we have a lot of high ceiling types, but many of our good prospects were acquired during the Bill Smith era.

[Mr. Brooks]

I sure hope that "out of options" as a reason for winning a roster spot has left with the old regime.

[Mike Sixel]

Which of these high valued prospects were ushered in in the last five years, exactly? On this roster?

 

Buxton and May? Chargois?

 

I'm confused by that statement. Greatly.

 

As for DanSAn, I don't get it. He doesn't steal well, he is really quite bad in teh field, and he can't hit. Other than that, um, I don't get it.

Edited December 15, 2016 by Mike Sixel

[drjim]

Agree on the rotation. Even if Dozier is traded for De Leon, not sure what Berrios/De Leon/Duffey/Mejia have done to make people think they can take the ball on day one and make 30 starts. For a rebuilding team it makes even more sense to be patient with pitchers.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if they sign or trade for another veteran starting pitcher depending on what they think about Hughes.

[Cory Engelhardt]

If Berrios works hard this offseason, and drastically improves his fastball command as well as whatever he was doing to tip his pitches, there isn't anyone that will block him in the rotation. If they get De Leon, then I really think he is in the rotation too. Everyone else will work themselves out. Gnashing our teeth to rid ourselves of any veteran due to adding potential youth isn't helping. If the veteran has better command, at least to start the year, they will be up.

If Berrios and De Leon start the year in AAA, I will be disappointed. But if they both start 25 times at the MLB level, that is a good thing.

[Boom Boom]

Hughes? I thought he was recovering from unilateral arm amputation or something.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Agree on the rotation. Even if Dozier is traded for De Leon, not sure what Berrios/De Leon/Duffey/Mejia have done to make people think they can take the ball on day one and make 30 starts. For a rebuilding team it makes even more sense to be patient with pitchers.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if they sign or trade for another veteran starting pitcher depending on what they think about Hughes.

 

When will they show us something, if they are in AAA? What would you need to see from Berrios in AAA at this point, to let him pitch in the majors?

[jimmer]

 

Hughes? I thought he was recovering from unilateral arm amputation or something.

He's still laughing about the contract Ryan gave him after one outlier season.

[drjim]

 

When will they show us something, if they are in AAA? What would you need to see from Berrios in AAA at this point, to let him pitch in the majors?

 

Come in and dominate in the spring, or dominate in AAA. It doesn't matter that much if he's there April 1 or May 1. He was bad last year, nothing wrong with easing him in, controlling his innings a little, giving him some confidence, put him in a position to succeed.

 

If he blows everyone away in the spring, great, put him in and let's roll. But no way he should be Plan A right now. He showed nothing in the majors last year to earn that.

[big dog]

Here's a fun set of Buxton clips on a ridiculously cold Illinois or Minnesota day.

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/211043632/byron-buxtons-5-tools-as-measured-by-statcast/

 

Let's hope he makes the next leap.  And doesn't crash into a wall when he does it.

 

I think Santiago and Gibson need to move on.  They can be marginally better if they get some breaks, but how much more upside do they have?  That might make 2017 a little more palatable, but we need higher ceilings for the next 5 years.  Move 'em.  Let's see May and some younger guys and get this thing sorted out.

[Mr. Brooks]

Come in and dominate in the spring, or dominate in AAA. It doesn't matter that much if he's there April 1 or May 1. He was bad last year, nothing wrong with easing him in, controlling his innings a little, giving him some confidence, put him in a position to succeed.

 

If he blows everyone away in the spring, great, put him in and let's roll. But no way he should be Plan A right now. He showed nothing in the majors last year to earn that.

He already has dominated AAA.

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

Come in and dominate in the spring, or dominate in AAA. It doesn't matter that much if he's there April 1 or May 1. He was bad last year, nothing wrong with easing him in, controlling his innings a little, giving him some confidence, put him in a position to succeed.

 

If he blows everyone away in the spring, great, put him in and let's roll. But no way he should be Plan A right now. He showed nothing in the majors last year to earn that.

 

For argument's sake, who DID show you anything in the rotation last year? Outside of Santana, who were the pitchers that EARNED it for this upcoming year, that showed any semblance of being ready?

-

Since there was arguably no one in the rotation (outside of Ervin) last year who proved they can be capable of being a full time major league starter, you may as well go with the guy who has the most potential to be good, right?

[Thrylos]

I'd like the roster to look something like this:

 

Catchers: Castro, Murphy/Garver
IF: Mauer, Park, Sano, Vargas, Polanco, Escobar,
OF: Kepler, Buxton, Rosario, Palka,

+1 of Grossman/Santana/Vielma/Goodrum/newcomer in trade

SP: Gibson, May, Newcomer in Trade, +2 of: Newcomer in Trade/Berrios/Mejia/Romero/Jorge/etc
RP: Duffey, Chargois, Rogers, Haley, Pressly, Melotakis, +1 of Burdi/Reed/Curtiss/etc

 

Yes there are several people who need to go.  Lots of work that needs to be done.

 

[Pardon My Dinger]

Q: How many new baseball operations executives does it take to not do anything? 

 

A: Two.

[drjim]

 

For argument's sake, who DID show you anything in the rotation last year? Outside of Santana, who were the pitchers that EARNED it for this upcoming year, that showed any semblance of being ready?

-

Since there was arguably no one in the rotation (outside of Ervin) last year who proved they can be capable of being a full time major league starter, you may as well go with the guy who has the most potential to be good, right?

 

There are certainly different standards for vets than guys trying to break in. Gibson and Santiago are easy in my mind, healthy and have made it through multiple seasons. Gibson at least has some upside and Santiago is a place holder who can stabalize the rotation a little, protect the bullpen, and possibly flip at the deadline (a perfect guy for a rebuilding team). I would like to give May another shot, and then leave the last spot open. Hughes would get the first crack if healthy based on track record.

 

I think people generally underestimate how difficult it is for a young starter to crack a rotation day one and make it through the season. This is more to protect Berrios than anything. It's not like a rotation of Santana/Gibson/Santiago/May/Hughes (or other vet) is going to make all their starts. He'll get his chance really quick if he deserves it.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Come in and dominate in the spring, or dominate in AAA. It doesn't matter that much if he's there April 1 or May 1. He was bad last year, nothing wrong with easing him in, controlling his innings a little, giving him some confidence, put him in a position to succeed.

 

If he blows everyone away in the spring, great, put him in and let's roll. But no way he should be Plan A right now. He showed nothing in the majors last year to earn that.

 

So last year's AAA dominance didn't mean anything, but a couple spring training starts will? I don't agree with that as how to make decisions. Last year's minor league dominance meant nothing, but this year it would?

 

Frank Viola was awful at first. He learned by actually being in the majors and facing MLB hitters.