Article: How The Twins Drafts Stack Up

[Seth Stohs]

Last week, the Minnesota Twins announced two promotions in their Scouting Department. Long-time scouting director Deron Johnson was promoted to Senior Advisor of the Scouting Department. Sean Johnson, who had been West Coast Supervisor, is now taking over the reins as Director of Scouting. His job, according to the team’s press release, will be responsibility for “the strategic preparation of the Amateur Draft, and he will be charged with developing the 27-man amateur scouting staff.”

 

The move created some discussion in our forums and even on the radio. I was listening to Phil Mackey and Judd Zulgad on 1500 ESPN early last week following the announcement, and Phil mentioned how few impact players the Twins had drafted between 2003 and 2012. Specifically, he looked at the first five rounds of those drafts to see how many players the Twins drafted that had some impact. He noted that he didn’t know how that compared to other organizations, so immediately, I had the thought that I was going to find out. It’s something I’ve been curious about, so why not find out what the data tells us.I went to old reliable, Baseball-Reference, and used their draft page to do some digging. I looked at the 2003 through 2012 drafts, a ten year period, and broke out the data in several ways.

• >2 bWAR: It’s hard to get to the big leagues, so to be able to find players who get there and have some positive impact on a team is terrific. This isn’t a high threshold, but it gives a good look at the scouting to be able to find big leaguers. This includes some non-closing relievers who have been good for a couple of years. This includes Byron Buxton, the Twins top pick in 2012, and a guy who certainly should rack up bWAR in the next decade and be on much higher bWAR lists.
• >6 bWAR: Mackey mentioned Brian Duensing as a guy who sits on the borderline of impact type of player. He’s had a nice, solid, long-lasting MLB career as mostly a middle reliever. He has 6.4 bWAR accumulated to this point, so I thought I’d find out how many have hit that level.
• >10 bWAR: Now we’re getting to some guys who have had really solid careers. They’ve either been solid for several years or they have had a major impact pretty quickly.
• >20 bWAR: If you’re past 20 bWAR you’ve had a really good career. Sure, that’s two Mike Trout seasons… or it’s a nice, solid, steady career like Aaron Hill or Chase Headley.
• >8 bWAR but drafted AFTER the 5th round. The MLB draft is more than five rounds. It is now 40 (and used to be 50). In reality, if scouts find guys after the 5th round that get to AAA, that should give them bonus points. But a lot of diamonds in the rough can be found in these late rounds. To be honest we should probably count any and all post-5th round draft picks who make it to the big leagues as wins.

Also, please note that I am including players even if they did not sign with the team at that time. For instance, the Angels drafted Matt Harvey in the third round out of high school. He went to North Carolina instead of signing and then the Mets made him a top pick three years later. In my mind, the Angels and their scouts get credit for that too.

 

GREATER THAN TWO bWAR (First Five Rounds)

 

15 - Blue Jays, Diamondbacks

14 - Reds

13 - Red Sox, Padres, Nationals

12 - Braves

11 - Twins, Royals, Rockies, Orioles, Rays, Cardinals, A’s, Angels

10 - Pirates

9 - White Sox, Marlins, Mariners, Cleveland, Brewers, Astros

8 - Cubs, Dodgers

7 - Yankees, Tigers, Mets, Giants

4 - Phillies, Rangers

 

So, the Twins are basically tied for 8th in MLB in number of players drafted who have achieved two bWAR. I’ll have some summary comments at the end.

 

GREATER THAN 6 bWAR (First Five Rounds)

 

9 - Nationals, Red Sox, Reds

8 - A’s, Blue Jays, Braves, Diamondbacks

7 - Angels, Brewers

6 - Twins, Rays, Mariners, Orioles, Pirates, Royals

5 - Astros, Cardinals, Giants, Cleveland, Marlins, Padres, Rockies, Tigers, Yankees.

4 - Cubs, Dodgers

3 - Mets, Phillies, Rangers

2 - White Sox

 

The Twins are tied with five other teams for tenth. As happened with the two bWAR data, that tie pushed right to 15, so they are just above the halfway point among the 30 MLB teams.

 

The Twins that made the list of 6 bWAR: Scott Baker, Trevor Plouffe, Glen Perkins, Matt Garza, Brian Duensing, Ben Revere.

 

GREATER THAN 10 bWAR (First Five Rounds)

 

6 - Nationals, Red Sox

5 - A’s, Brewers, Braves, Diamondbacks, Giants, Orioles

4 - Cubs, Marlins, Mariners, Padres, Reds, Rockies, Royals, Tigers

3 - Angels, Astros, Blue Jays, Cardinals, Rays, Cleveland, Pirates, Yankees

2 - Twins, Dodgers, Mets, Phillies, Rangers, White Sox

 

This is where the Twins can be faulted. They have not had many big impact draft picks from that decade (yet). The two Twins that made this list were Scott Baker (15.7) and Matt Garza (12.5).

 

GREATER THAN 20 bWAR (First Five Rounds)

 

Another group that I looked at was the players over 20 bWAR. As you can see above, the Twins did not have any. Most teams have just one. The Atlanta Braves have four, Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman, Yunel Escobar and Andrelton Simmons. The Red Sox had three, Jonathan Papelbon, Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury. The Nationals had Ryan Zimmerman, Jordan Zimmerman and Bryce Harper.

 

The Mets and Cardinals joined the Twins with zero, which may surprise many as the Cardinals are generally looked at as one of the top drafting teams in baseball. Their highest bWAR player for that time frame is Colby Rasmus at 18.7.

 

GREATER THAN 8 bWAR AFTER THE FIFTH ROUND

 

(players over 10 bWAR in parentheses)

 

Angels: 7 (Chris Davis, Buster Posey, Kole Calhoun)

Astros: 2 (Dallas Keuchel, JD Martinez)

A’s: 1 (Mike Leake)

Blue Jays: 2 (Kris Bryant)

Braves: 4 (Craig Kimbrel, Anthony Rendon)

Brewers: 3 (Lorenzo Cain, Michael Brantley, Jake Arrieta)

Cardinals: 5 (Brendan Ryan, Ian Kennedy, Max Scherzer, Matt Carpenter)

Cubs: 4 (Tim Lincecum, Josh Harrison)

Rays: 5 (John Jaso, Desmond Jennings, Kevin Kiermeier)

Diamondbacks: 3 (Paul Goldschmidt, Adam Eaton)

Dodgers: 4 (Matt Kemp, David Price, Paul Goldschmidt)

Giants: 2 (Doug Fister)

Cleveland: 2 (Desmond Jennings, Tim Lincecum)

Mariners: 1 (Doug Fister)

Marlins: 2

Mets: 3 (Daniel Murphy, Jacob DeGrom)

Nationals: 1 (Marco Estrada)

Orioles: 3 (Wil Venable)

Padres: 3 (Wil Venable, David Friese, Mat Latos)

Phillies: 1 (Brad Ziegler)

Pirates: 2

Rangers: 6 (Ian Kinsler, Derek Holland, Tanner Roark)

Red Sox: 7 (Brandon Belt, Josh Reddick, Anthony Rizzo)

Reds: 2 (Jake Arrieta, Justin Turner)

Rockies: 3 (Dexter Fowler, Todd Frazier, Chris Sale)

Royals: 2 (Jarrod Dyson, Greg Holland)

Tigers: 3 (Matt Joyce, Alex Avila, DJ LeMahieu)

White Sox: 0

Yankees: 8 (Tyler Clippard, Chris Davis, Doug Fister, Austin Jackson, Justin Turner, David Robertson)

Twins: 4 (JD Martinez, George Springer, Brian Dozier)

 

SUMMARY NOTES

 

I won’t sit here and tell you that this is a perfect analysis of the draft or the drafting abilities of the Twins or any other clubs. To get a 40 bWAR player requires a lot of luck and timing and such.The Twins have a lot of very good scouts, guys who have found talent in the lower rounds. Here are some additional notes:

• Note all first-round picks are made the same. The year the Twins took Levi Michael in the first round, they had the 30th overall pick. Also of note, the Pirates took Gerrit Cole with the first overall pick. The Mariners then took Danny Hultzen with the second overall pick. Also of note, Keith Law ranked Michael in his top 15 players for the draft, so there is no magic formula to this.
• The Twins highest draft pick (other than Byron Buxton in 2012) was the 14th overall pick in 2008. For the most part, the Twins were in the playoffs during this run and making picks 20 or later in the first round. There is little certainty in top 5 picks many times, much less when you get into the 20s.
• The first six picks of the 2003 draft were: Delmon Young (2.5), Rickie Weeks (11.4), Kyle Sleeth (No MLB), Tim Stauffer (3.5), Chris Lubanski (No MLB), Ryan Harvey (no MLB). That year, the Twins picked Matt Moses with the 21st overall pick.
• The Twins did pretty well for themselves in 2004. Trevor Plouffe (8.1) and Glen Perkins (8.8) were the 20th and 22nd overall picks that year in the draft. The 23rd pick was Phil Hughes.
• In 2005, the Twins got Matt Garza (12.5) with the 25th overall pick, which was good for 10th (so far) in that draft’s first round.
• Chris Parmelee was the 20th overall pick in the 2006 draft.
• In the 2007 draft, Ben Revere’s 6.1 bWAR ranks 7th among the 30 first-round picks. He was taken with the 28th pick.
• Aaron Hicks was the 14th pick in the 2008 draft. His 1.9 bWAR to date ranks 14th of the 30 picks.
• Kyle Gibson missed at least one year (and probably closer to two years) of time due to Tommy John surgery. He has posted 5.0 bWAR so far in his career. That ranks ninth of the 30 first-round picks in 2009s draft. He was taken with the 22nd pick.
• The Twins top pick in 2010 also had Tommy John surgery. Alex Wimmers was the 21st overall pick for the Twins. He is right at 0 bWAR, but he made the big leagues, something eight players selected ahead of him can’t say yet.
• As we already mentioned, Levi Michael was the 30th pick in the 2011 draft.
• Byron Buxton was the #2 overall pick in the 2012 draft, following Carlos Correa. Buxton’s injury-plagued 2014 season likely slowed his path to the big leagues. He also has struggled early in his career. He’s accumulated 2.1 bWAR. He had a strong September, but defense is also where he will rack up a lot of WAR. Corey Seager and Addison Russell are the two high school picks from that season, along with Correa, who have more big league success so far than Buxton. I believe the odds of Buxton accumulating 20+ bWAR in his career are quite high. I also think there’s a high likelihood that Jose Berrios will improve dramatically over his -1.6 bWAR performance in 2016. Also, Mason Melotakis, JT Chargois and Taylor Rogers come from the 2012 draft and could all achieve at least 6 bWAR if things go well.

I guess the information presented above shows that the Twins did a “Good” job of drafting for that decade of years. I guess I would say they’ve been pretty middle-of-the-pack, not great (for sure), but certainly not terrible either. I think they’ve done a good job of finding some guys that have the potential to be big leaguers. I would say that, for whatever reason, they haven’t had the luck in finding those big impact players that we’d all like to see. Perkins was a three-time All Star which I would say is pretty impactful, even if bWAR says it's "only" worth 8.8. Scott Baker was better than most people thought at the time. Buxton and Berrios certainly give us hope that they can be those types of players.

 

The draft is just one way for teams to accumulate players and talent. The Twins consider themselves a mid-market team, however, and the draft becomes more important in that it is where you can find players at low salary and you can keep under control for six years.

 

The Twins have the #1 overall pick in the 2017 draft. It’s a huge pick for the organization. There are a lot of very talented very young players who are just getting to the big leagues or just about to get to the big leagues. Having an elite talent who will be ready in three or four years will help keep that coming and help Derek Falvey toward that long-term, sustainable, championship-caliber organization that he wants to build.

 

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[beckmt]

Nice article Seth.  Given the fact that the last 4 years picks are not here yet, is not too surprising.  Some of those pitchers, most have had surgery will tell the tale over the next few years.  Many will be busts, but that is the nature of the game. 

Biggest issue I have with the Twins was failure to spend over the international budget, sort of knowing it would be changed in this CBA.  Twins need a high impact pitcher or two and I do not yet see that type in the system. 

We shall see.

[mazeville]

Nice. Really nice. But I'd conclude that the Twins' drafting has been below average based on your analysis. T

 

They've been middle of the pack when it comes to drafting players who make the majors and can get playing time. But they've been far below average at drafting players who ultimately make an impact. And that's been their fault. 

 

But the limitations of the list also show that you have to be good at making trades and at international scouting (which is HUGE). Can't do well these days if you're not out there getting good international players.

 

I hope all this improves. 

[Thrylos]

Not sure that giving the Twins credit for drafting JD Martinez makes any sense. Teams draft High Schoolers in the late rounds even though they know that they will not sign. Hard to see them getting credit for really wasting that pick vs taking a college senior with a pulse.

Drafting players and not signing them should hurt, not help their scores.

 

Would love to see the total WAR of all teams from 2003-2012 ranked, based on players they have signed. I would bet the the Twins will be either in the middle or the bottom third.

 

Not a good reason to promote anyone, because you are promoting mediocrity...

[ThejacKmp]

 

Not a good reason to promote anyone, because you are promoting mediocrity...

 

(on the other hand, I don't think that Deron Johnson's new job is an actual promotion, just a promotion on paper that keeps a minority person in the FO and actually gets him away from running the draft...) 

 

Woah, that's a heck of a claim. Is there any basis for that?

[nicksaviking]

Nice research. Those results are about what I would have expected. There seemed to be a shift in philosophy around 2010-11, specifically they tended to draft "safe" picks early, mostly college pitchers. Seth's results above certainly look like a high floor/low ceiling approach by the Twins.

[roger]

Thanks, Seth. I would agree with Thrylos, however, that the list should include only players actually signed.

 

But it seems that the Twins have been ok. On the other hand, can dream a bit about what the team would be with a couple more 10 bWAR players on the current team...especially if one was a starting pitcher.

[Vanimal46]

Concur with roger and Thrylos that only players that actually signed should be included on the list.... Also, there should be something said about what exact value the teams see. Sure, Matt Garza has 12.5 bWar, but how much did the Twins see of that? 1? 

[Nickasaski]

Nice break down, Seth.  I've often heard Mackey and others deride the Twins draft success.  Your data mining stamps their arguments with a valid, "It's not that bad."I think the 2003-2012 drafts will have a lot less impact on this organization than the 2012-2017 will.  If you add the overall draft positions in each year for rounds 1-5 and divide by the number of picks in those rounds, you get what I'll call a Top Round Composite, the lower numbers will reflect higher picks, on average.

 

2003 = 433 (5 picks, = TRC 86.6)

2004 = 565 (9 picks, = TRC 62.8)

2005 = 760 (9 picks, = TRC 84.4)

2006 = 581 (6 picks, = TRC 96.8)

2007 = 576 (5 picks, = TRC 115.2)

2008 = 506 (7 picks, = TRC 72.2)

2009 = 533 (6 picks, = TRC 88.8)

2010 = 494 (5 picks, = TRC 98.8)

2011 = 665 (7 picks, = TRC 95)

2012 = 598 (8 picks, = TRC 74.7)

2013 = 375 (5 picks, avg. 75)

2014 = 380 (5 picks, avg. 76)

2015 = 409 (5 picks, avg. 81.8)

2016 = 587 (7 picks, avg. 83.8)

 

I would argue that the most important years for the Twins to have draft success were those in which they had the best chance of being successful. These are the years with the lowest TRC: 2004, 2008, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 (in order). The only two that we can evaluate fairly at this point are 2004 and 2008.

 

2004 was a good draft - Plouffe, Perkins and Swarzak

2008 was pitiful - Hicks (1.9 WAR)

 

2012 - 2017 are the most important draft years for this franchise in the past 15 years.

[Mike Sixel]

We could just compare Nick Gordon and Trea Turner.....

 

If you won't spend money on international FAs (over the limits) and you won't sign big time FAs in MLB, you need to better than the other teams at drafting and developing players, or your team is going to be bad. If your strategy is to rely mostly on the draft, you should invest in more scouts, more analysis, and more development staff than other teams, or your strategy isn't really rely on the draft, it is to not spend money on your strategy.

 

That, imo, is what happened to this team. They decided to draft and develop as the primary strategy, and they weren't good enough at it to be successful.

[Seth Stohs]

I should probably point out that the only area where the Twins would be discounted if I only included players that the signed would be the AFTER the 5th round group. 

 

They have been really good at signing their top 5 (And usually their top 10-12) in the draft. Very few early-round picks that they don't sign. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Thanks, Seth. I would agree with Thrylos, however, that the list should include only players actually signed.

But it seems that the Twins have been ok. On the other hand, can dream a bit about what the team would be with a couple more 10 bWAR players on the current team...especially if one was a starting pitcher.

 

I think that 2012 draft presents a couple of guys (one hitter and one pitcher... and who knows, maybe a bullpen arm) who could reach 10 bWAR as well. 

[Rosterman]

Sometimes you shake your head at the guys the Twins failed to sign for one reason or another. And then you also shake your head that low-end draft picks DO make the major leagues over the top guys. Of course, there's always room for role players in baseball. But given the time and trouble a team gives to a high-level pick (as well as the money) you would often expect some results at a major league level...even if it is one of these role-playing roles.

[DocBauer]

A really interesting read. Thanks Seth. But despite being over a 10 year span, I would have to argue the list is incomplete since, as pointed out, some really good young players from the more recent drafts have just arrived or are about to. Of course, this goes for all other teams as well.

 

Could the argument be made that this upcoming draft is one of the most important in team history? Top pick, a supplemental pick, and I'm not certain about our 2nd rounder. Did we lose that with the Castro signing or is it protected?

 

Regardless, 5 90+ loss seasons in 6, young talent available and arriving, a completely new OF, shuffling and additions to departments, I think this draft is huge.

[Seth Stohs]

 

A really interesting read. Thanks Seth. But despite being over a 10 year span, I would have to argue the list is incomplete since, as pointed out, some really good young players from the more recent drafts have just arrived or are about to. Of course, this goes for all other teams as well.

Could the argument be made that this upcoming draft is one of the most important in team history? Top pick, a supplemental pick, and I'm not certain about our 2nd rounder. Did we lose that with the Castro signing or is it protected?

Regardless, 5 90+ loss seasons in 6, young talent available and arriving, a completely new OF, shuffling and additions to departments, I think this draft is huge.

 

Yup, that's my point. The 2012 draft could alter the way this looks. As of right now, 2003-2012 drafts for the Twins would be very much average... but that 2012 class could push that up significantly. Honestly, we can't really judge this 10-year set of draft picks fairly for another 15 years probably. 

 

Or hey, if they went back to 2001, the Twins could add Mauer, and I'd say that was a great pick. His career WAR is above all but maybe 1-2 on this list. The Twins could also add Denard Span and he has 25 bWAR. 

 

So, to be fair, drawing arbitrary lines will always affect data. 

[mikelink45]

The obvious campanion to this analysis is something I do not think we can measure - the ability of the Twins Minor League system to develop and maximize the skills of those that are selected.  

[mazeville]

 

Yup, that's my point. The 2012 draft could alter the way this looks. As of right now, 2003-2012 drafts for the Twins would be very much average... but that 2012 class could push that up significantly. Honestly, we can't really judge this 10-year set of draft picks fairly for another 15 years probably. 

 

I love this report, but I think calling the 2003-2013 drafts "very much average" is really looking at this through rose-colored glasses. They were decidedly below average, based on your research. They're average in getting players who can play in the majors. But they're below average in getting people to the majors who have an impact once they're there. 

 

And, as it's been pointed out, the Twins do not spend on free agents or big international signings (though they do sign lots of international players - they generally won't go after the competitive free agents that might cost some money). So they need to draft better than average to remain competitive, and they don't.

 

You can't make up a team with nothing but a bunch of 1 or 2 WAR players. You need impact players, and the Twins haven't been able to do that with enough regularity to justify their failure to spend in other areas.

 

In addition, the jury is still very much out on the drafts since 2012. While I remain confident in Buxton, as well as Berrios, that 2012 draft at this point is looking more like an outlier. 

 

All of this is water under the bridge, of course, because there is a new regime. But to me, the Twins' failure at drafting, and doing little to compensate for those bad drafts, has been the biggest reason for their struggles in recent years. 

[Winston Smith]

I agree with Mike. The Twins wanted to build mostly by the draft so if you won't spend big on free agents and Int. signings then you have to be better than mediocre drafting or you get what we've seen the last 6 years.

[Twins33]

Could the argument be made that this upcoming draft is one of the most important in team history? Top pick, a supplemental pick, and I'm not certain about our 2nd rounder. Did we lose that with the Castro signing or is it protected?

the 2nd rounder isn't protected, but we didn't lose it because Castro didn't receive and reject a qualifying offer (would have been insane for him to get one and also insane for him to turn it down).

[Seth Stohs]

 

The obvious campanion to this analysis is something I do not think we can measure - the ability of the Twins Minor League system to develop and maximize the skills of those that are selected.  

 

I agree... and I think to do this, you'd have to look at a very complex formula based on expectations. 

 

Maybe we look at the average WAR for a draft position to give an MLB value.

 

But, a team (their scouts) should get some credit if an 8th round pick gets to AAA, or a 15th round pick gets to AA, or a 20th round pick gets to Hi-A, etc. 

 

I probably don't have time for that. Ha!

[Badsmerf]

Why are you giving the twins credit for George Springer also? That isn't really representative of the actual players drafted.

 

The common complaint, which you proved, is the twins haven't drafted high impact players. Combine that with average results of players that reach the majors, very low success of free agents, not much success with intl free agents.... and you see how this team is so bad.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Why are you giving the twins credit for George Springer also? That isn't really representative of the actual players drafted.

The common complaint, which you proved, is the twins haven't drafted high impact players. Combine that with average results of players that reach the majors, very low success of free agents, not much success with intl free agents.... and you see how this team is so bad.

 

See above. 

 

That was the purpose of doing this research. Lots are saying the Twins are bad at drafting, and I don't necessarily think that's true. I'd say they're average at drafting, maybe mediocre would be a better word. Now we have something to base that all on, rather than just using a blanket statement. 

[prouster]

 

We could just compare Nick Gordon and Trea Turner.....

 

If you won't spend money on international FAs (over the limits) and you won't sign big time FAs in MLB, you need to better than the other teams at drafting and developing players, or your team is going to be bad. If your strategy is to rely mostly on the draft, you should invest in more scouts, more analysis, and more development staff than other teams, or your strategy isn't really rely on the draft, it is to not spend money on your strategy.

 

I agree that the Twins should invest more in the international market. It's a way to acquire moderate to high upside pitching with relatively minimal risk. In my opinion, teams choosing high in the Rule 4 draft are best suited going with college bats. Bryant, Schwarber, Swanson, Bregman, Conforto, Benintendi, and, yes, Turner were all taken high in the first round over the last couple years. Of course, so were Seager, Correa, and a few other nice HS bats. There have been some nice pitchers (Finnegan, Rodon, etc.), although pitchers strike me as being too risky for a high pick, unless someone like Strasburg is on the board. 

 

That said, I'm not sure how wise it is to point at the Gordon pick as evidence of general futility. It's a single data point, and we really don't know what we have in Gordon.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I should probably point out that the only area where the Twins would be discounted if I only included players that the signed would be the AFTER the 5th round group. 

 

They have been really good at signing their top 5 (And usually their top 10-12) in the draft. Very few early-round picks that they don't sign. 

The later round unsigned picks are primarily the problem, Seth -- team don't necessarily have any real ability (or realistic intent) to sign such players.  Teams shouldn't get credit for those picks.  The round in which the Twins picked George Springer doesn't even exist anymore.

 

I'm not picking on the Twins for this, just pointing out that including these guys doesn't help the analysis.

[Seth Stohs]

The Twins haven't spent in Cuba, but they've been much more active in the Dominican and Venezuela in the last 5-6 years. 

 

They've spent $1M+ on Sano, Minier, Diaz, and Javier in recent years. They've been $750K or more on guys like Polanco, Kepler, Ynoa.

 

Sano was $3+million. Javier was $4+ million... and that was more alone than the Twins allotment last year. 

 

So, I don't think the Twins haven't done enough in the International markets. 

[Taildragger8791]

 

See above. 

 

That was the purpose of doing this research. Lots are saying the Twins are bad at drafting, and I don't necessarily think that's true. I'd say they're average at drafting, maybe mediocre would be a better word. Now we have something to base that all on, rather than just using a blanket statement. 

 

If the Twins really saw strong potential and signability in Springer I doubt they'd have waited until the 48th round to pick him. It was almost surely a gamble pick on a talented kid that was bound for college. It just doesn't pass the sniff test as a genuinely realistic selection.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I agree that the Twins should invest more in the international market. It's a way to acquire moderate to high upside pitching with relatively minimal risk. In my opinion, teams choosing high in the Rule 4 draft are best suited going with college bats. Bryant, Schwarber, Swanson, Bregman, Conforto, Benintendi, and, yes, Turner were all taken high in the first round over the last couple years. Of course, so were Seager, Correa, and a few other nice HS bats. There have been some nice pitchers (Finnegan, Rodon, etc.), although pitchers strike me as being too risky for a high pick, unless someone like Strasburg is on the board. 

 

That said, I'm not sure how wise it is to point at the Gordon pick as evidence of general futility. It's a single data point, and we really don't know what we have in Gordon.

 

It is a data point....right now, the Twins have nothing to show for the pick. Here are the 10 players picked after Gordon:

 

Jackson, Alex--bad, change of scenery trade already

Nola, Aaron--would be in the Twins rotation right now
Freeland, Kyle--projected 3/4 in the majors, pitched in AAA already
Hoffman, Jeff---2/3 starter, reached the majors, not great, but upside pitcher
Conforto, Michael---should be the starting RF for the Mets already, some hitting issues, but in the majorjs
Pentecost, Max---serious injury issues that were mis-diagnosed at first
Medeiros, Kodi---bad outcomes, but FIP was good in 15
Turner, Trea--could be an all star CF or SS, in the majors
Beede, Tyler=---4th starter, maybe number 3 if things break right, in AA
Newcomb, Sean---AA SP, with number 4/3 stuff
 

I'd probably trade Gordon for half of them right now. That's either good, or bad, depending on what you think....but it isn't GREAT, imo. I expected them to pick Gordon, I mildly endorsed it from my computer in MN....and I still think he's a legit starting SS in the majors. I'd still trade him w/o a moment's hesitation for Turner, Nola, Freeland and Hoffman. I'd think about Conforto and probalby do it. I'd consider Beede and Newcomb also.

 

Of course we won't know for years.....but with what we do know, what would others do?

[Mike Sixel]

 

The Twins haven't spent in Cuba, but they've been much more active in the Dominican and Venezuela in the last 5-6 years. 

 

They've spent $1M+ on Sano, Minier, Diaz, and Javier in recent years. They've been $750K or more on guys like Polanco, Kepler, Ynoa.

 

Sano was $3+million. Javier was $4+ million... and that was more alone than the Twins allotment last year. 

 

So, I don't think the Twins haven't done enough in the International markets. 

 

They refused to over the limits one time. The year they signed Javier, they did nothing else. We just don't agree on the approach. IMO, going over 1 time would have been the right thing to do. Others disagree mostly on ethical reasons.

 

The spent big on more than 1 player 1 time. That was before the limits were put in place.

[Vanimal46]

 

The Twins haven't spent in Cuba, but they've been much more active in the Dominican and Venezuela in the last 5-6 years. 

 

They've spent $1M+ on Sano, Minier, Diaz, and Javier in recent years. They've been $750K or more on guys like Polanco, Kepler, Ynoa.

 

Sano was $3+million. Javier was $4+ million... and that was more alone than the Twins allotment last year. 

 

So, I don't think the Twins haven't done enough in the International markets. 

Yet the bigger MLB markets have gone above and beyond in the international market. 

Yoan Moncada was a $32 million player. 

 

SP Yadiel Alvarez for the Dodgers was a $16 million player

 

SS Lucius Fox for the Giants $6 million. 

 

I don't agree they have done enough to not warrant criticism. 

[zenser]

Is the Comp A pick protected?  I would think it is not, but I am not sure.  Does anyone know the answer to that?