Article: Winter Meetings Are Over. Now What?

[amjgt]

 

I was remarking with genuine astonishment at how much conversation that thread generated. I'm not hating, it's good fodder. But I put "source" in quotes because until someone develops a track record for accurate reporting I'll always be skeptical of such claims.

 

I'll also add that I have known Dave for a long time and consider him a friend. There's no animosity intended here. 

 

Of course, when I commented I didn't know you were friends.

 

It was the quotes around "source" that made wonder what was up.

[mazeville]

I think a Dozier trade remains the biggest thing the Twins need to do. And then I'd look for a reclamation project as a relief pitcher. That might be it.

 

They should look at trading Ervin Santana, but teams can and should carry starting pitchers into the season and trade them at the deadline when their value is highest (contenders are always desperate for starters). We're assuming Santana has a good season, but he has been consistent. 

 

On top of that, keeping Santana for the first part of the season gives some of your younger guys more time in the minors. 

 

That said, if the Rangers called and offered Jurickson Profar I probably send Santana packing (not saying that's a legit trade, just an example). But I'd be OK holding onto Ervin as the season starts. 

[Wyorev]

re: one post generating 1200 comments. There are a bunch of us who truly enjoy the Twins, and I'm grateful for this TD forum to share this deep dysfunction.

(DW thanks for sharing your scoop, that was fun)

I think Dozier should be traded. I wonder if it makes sense to suggest that an excellent second baseman might be a luxury of an excellent team. A lesser team might need to build around center field and/or shortstop and/or starting pitching. Maybe

Thanks for the conversation!

This line from Fellowship of the Ring might be fitting.

“I don't know half of you half as well as I should like; and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.”

[Han Joelo]

Re: Trading Dwoizier

 

As new kids on the block, I would hope that a lot of this is just Falvine "establishing their presence with authority," rather than like this:

 

https://youtu.be/gORMNmZgE3E

 

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/gORMNmZgE3E" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

[Han Joelo]

RE:  Trading Dwozier

 

I imagine this delay is a case of new kids at the table Falvey and Levine needing to "establish themselves with authority" rather than doing something like this right out of the gate:

 

https://youtu.be/gORMNmZgE3E

 

(How do you embed the whole video rather than the link?)

[ashbury]

RE:  Trading Dwozier

 

I imagine this delay is a case of new kids at the table Falvey and Levine needing to "establish themselves with authority" rather than doing something like this right out of the gate:

 

https://youtu.be/gORMNmZgE3E

 

(How do you embed the whole video rather than the link?)

Put "media" in square brackets without the quotes, put the URL, put "/media" in brackets. It might have to be the normal YouTube URL rather than the .be variant.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gORMNmZgE3E

 

There is also the little square turquoise/white button at the top (third from left) of the editing tool, BBCode, that you can click for "Media", but I find it easier just to type the characters on the keyboard most times.

[d-mac]

 

Missed this one:   http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/minor-mlb-transactions-121116.html

 

Catcher Dan Rohlfing is back with the Twins. 

 

Great! I can bring this back: 

[Platoon]

Agree with everything but the bolded part. Escobar is better defensively than Polanco, at least right now.  Both stats and eye test affirm that. Don't think you can reasonably argue otherwise.

You might have a valid point. Although I do think Polancos range makes up for a little. That said, if I was pitching, I would rather not look over my right shoulder and see either one!

[ashbury]

Great! I can bring this back: 

That's quite a case of Hitch Hiker's Thumb.

(Probably it's a related malady like Catcher's Thumb, that I never heard of.)

[Vanimal46]

 

That's quite a case of Hitch Hiker's Thumb.

(Probably it's a related malady like Catcher's Thumb, that I never heard of.)

 

Hitchhiker's thumb really freaks me out.... 

[SotaFan14]

I think the Twins want Urias in the deal, period.  The current "final offer" that is said to be out there might be a fine return but the new guys are not looking for fine, they are looking for an awesome return, which would be Urias in the deal.  Let's blow this up,  you can sent a few other pieces back if needed but this is the only way I would trade Dozier!  We need to get an Ace, this is the only way for the next 3+ years to do so unless you trade Sano, Buxton, Kelper, but that ain't cool.

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

I think the Twins want Urias in the deal, period.  The current "final offer" that is said to be out there might be a fine return but the new guys are not looking for fine, they are looking for an awesome return, which would be Urias in the deal.  Let's blow this up,  you can sent a few other pieces back if needed but this is the only way I would trade Dozier!  We need to get an Ace, this is the only way for the next 3+ years to do so unless you trade Sano, Buxton, Kelper, but that ain't cool.

 

Welcome to the site, but I just don't see there is any chance they get Urias. None.

 

 

[SotaFan14]

 

Welcome to the site, but I just don't see there is any chance they get Urias. None.

And that is why we haven't seen a deal done yet!  

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

1. Trade Dozier (my hope would be for De Leon, Alvarez + two other low/organizational filler pieces). 

 

Then, that allows the Twins to do the following: 

 

-Trade a starting pitcher.  Either E. Santana or Santiago.  I personally think a Santana trade makes more sense at the trade deadline.  Teams will be more desperate then and it also means Santana's around for the first half to mentor, in particular, Berrios and De Leon.  A Santiago trade makes more sense, even if it's a relatively buy-low moment.  The added value of the Santiago trade is it opens up a few more possibilities in the rotation.  I'd like to see Santana, Gibson, May, Berrios, De Leon with Hughes being the question mark. By mid-season, Mejia, Gonsalves and Slegers could all be knocking on the door. 

 

-Sign a utility infielder who can play above-average defense at shortstop.  I am a big Eduardo Escobar fan and think he deserves another shot.  He's a better defender than he was in 2016.  But Twins should also get some insurance on the defensive side. 

 

-Sign a LHRP if the contract is right.  I don't think it makes sense to sign anyone, anyone mediocre-enough to want to come to the Twins right now, to more than a 2-year contract.  

 

-Sign a few bounce-back reliever candidates to minor league contracts. 

 

-Decide if the Twins believe in Danny Santana, Robbie Grossman and Michael Tonkin.  Keep one...or two, not all three.  Then, commit to signing a 4th outfielder.

anything that gets rid of Santiago is good in my book.

[olivia11]

 

I think the Twins want Urias in the deal, period.  The current "final offer" that is said to be out there might be a fine return but the new guys are not looking for fine, they are looking for an awesome return, which would be Urias in the deal.  Let's blow this up,  you can sent a few other pieces back if needed but this is the only way I would trade Dozier!  We need to get an Ace, this is the only way for the next 3+ years to do so unless you trade Sano, Buxton, Kelper, but that ain't cool.

 

I think getting De Leon and Alvarez is almost as good as getting Urias and it means the Twins don't have to give up any other prospects.  De Leon is like a slightly better Jose Berrios and can help the rotation now.  Alvarez has as much upside as any top pitching prospect and could very well turn into a Julio Urias. Plus, having both Alvarez and Romero coming up at the same time in the system could make for an impressive 1-2 in a couple years.  Getting both prospects also provides a little insurance in case one or both don't quite reach their ceiling.

 

Based on his insane signing bonus, Alvarez was also someone that was basically priced out of the Twins' market when he signed with the Dodgers.  So, in that sense, acquiring him would be similar to what you're saying above: the Twins need to use Dozier to get a high-upside pitcher who they would otherwise not have a chance at.

[darin617]

The next step after hopefully finalizing a deal with the Dodgers is to shore up the defense. Jason Castro will be helpful to the pitchers having a catcher that can frame a pitch. Sadly the defense was not very helpful to the pitchers. This will take a few years and cannot be expected to fixed over night.

[nicksaviking]

If the hold up is truly due to the Twins wanting another useful MLB-ready piece like Brock Stewart but the Dodgers are unwilling to do so, I wonder if a guy like Pedro Baez would be a compromise. He's a BP guy for sure, but looks pretty legit and might even be the Twins closer from the get go.

 

Or maybe the Dodgers already think Baez is more valuable than a guy like Stewart anyway and he's also a deal breaker.

[nicksaviking]

Or

 

With the Kenly Jansen deal and the rumored Justin Turner contract, I wonder if it's possible the Twins have already agreed to take back a less than desirable contract from the Dodgers, Scott Kazmir or Brandon McCarthy perhaps? The contracts are ugly but the Twins could probably put either guy to use.

 

What if any trade holdup wasn't about prospects, but was actually contingent on Dodgers re-signing their guys. Perhaps the Twins said they would take on more money but wanted better prospects in return, something the Dodgers would only go for if they signed their two guys back.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Or

 

With the Kenly Jansen deal and the rumored Justin Turner contract, I wonder if it's possible the Twins have already agreed to take back a less than desirable contract from the Dodgers.

 

What if any trade holdup wasn't about prospects, but was actually contingent on Dodgers re-signing their guys. Perhaps the Twins said they would take on more money but wanted better prospects in return, something the Dodgers would only go for if they got their two guys back.

 

Heh, I just brought that up in the YUGE thread....

[Baseball Bat]

 

Or

 

With the Kenly Jansen deal and the rumored Justin Turner contract, I wonder if it's possible the Twins have already agreed to take back a less than desirable contract from the Dodgers, Scott Kazmir or Brandon McCarthy perhaps? The contracts are ugly but the Twins could probably put either guy to use.

 

What if any trade holdup wasn't about prospects, but was actually contingent on Dodgers re-signing their guys. Perhaps the Twins said they would take on more money but wanted better prospects in return, something the Dodgers would only go for if they signed their two guys back.

 

I would actually love to take Kazmir in a deal. He is a perfect flip candidate in July. Look at Ervin Santana. Fair market value for him right now is at least a top 100 prospect and then a lottery ticket and through June he had an ERA of 5 but turned it around. Kazmir could be a similar guy to that. Plus it is an easy solution, just don't bring back Hector Santiago if you get Kazmir. 

[Baseball Bat]

Also, does anyone else think this makes the Dodgers more likely to trade for Dozier? There only major hole that remains is second base, Dozier is cheap, and they didn't have to give up any prospects to fill other needs. These signings likely take them out of the running on guys like Frazier and Robertson. I personally think this is great news for the Twins and that the Dodgers might me more content to trade a package that would get the deal done. 

[nicksaviking]

 

Also, does anyone else think this makes the Dodgers more likely to trade for Dozier? There only major hole that remains is second base, Dozier is cheap, and they didn't have to give up any prospects to fill other needs. These signings likely take them out of the running on guys like Frazier and Robertson. I personally think this is great news for the Twins and that the Dodgers might me more content to trade a package that would get the deal done. 

 

I do. I thought the Dodgers were going to lose both of those guys. It makes a ton of sense from both the Twins and Dodgers perspectives to wait for a Dozier trade until these two were sorted out. Seeing it laid out like this makes it look kind of obvious too that these deals likely would have always had to have been figured out first.

[Baseball Bat]

 

I do. I thought the Dodgers were going to lose both of those guys. It makes a ton of sense from both the Twins and Dodgers perspectives to wait for a Dozier trade until these two were sorted out. Seeing it laid out like this makes it look kind of obvious too that these deals likely would have always had to have been figured out first.

FWIW, if you type in Brian Dozier on twitter right now, its almost all Dodgers fans and even some writers salivating at the thought of being able to go after Brian Dozier now. Not saying they think the same way as the Dodgers front office, but it certainly has more a buzz now that Jansen and Turner are signed. You are right, it almost makes too much sense for both teams now that those guys are taken care of for the Dodgers. 

[SotaFan14]

That is very interesting.  It is one thing that I didn't think of.  I would be happy to see a better package with someone like Kasmir heading our way.  Let's hope they give us nice x-mas package!!  

 

Dodgers to re-sign Jensen!!  Turner and Dodgers working on 4-deal.  Might be sooner than we think!

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'm not sure Kazmir would be an easy flip. He's been moving in the wrong direction now for a while.  I don't mind picking up a bad contract for a better prospect, but I wouldn't be surprised if we end up stuck with said bad contract too.

[nicksaviking]

 

I'm not sure Kazmir would be an easy flip. He's been moving in the wrong direction now for a while.  I don't mind picking up a bad contract for a better prospect, but I wouldn't be surprised if we end up stuck with said bad contract too.

 

Pfft, been there done that. I stopped losing sleep over those the second time Pelfrey put pen to paper.

[Thrylos]

I think that the Twins should be more into the selling than buying mode right now. 

 

As far as potential FA relievers go, Storen is a no-no situation:  Loss of 2-3 mph in all of his pitches, sounds like a Perkins2.0 scenario.  At this point I'd rather have them see what some of the younger players can do in the pen.  Heck, I'd rather see Chargois and Duffey close a game or two first.   

 

We are talking about MLB-ready starting pitching in a Dozier trade, but right now there just are not any spots for them.  Santana, Hughes, Santiago, Gibson, May (and Berrios, Mejia, etc).  Something's got to give, and Santana and Santiago should go ASAP...

Still lots of cleanup left in this team.

[nicksaviking]

 

 

We are talking about MLB-ready starting pitching in a Dozier trade, but right now there just are not any spots for them.  Santana, Hughes, Santiago, Gibson, May (and Berrios, Mejia, etc).  Something's got to give, and Santana and Santiago should go ASAP...

Still lots of cleanup left in this team.

 

Giving away Santiago and taking back Kazmir or McCarthy would be a push as far as rotation spots go in 2017. I'm not sure if the Twins would be willing take on more money or if the Dodgers even actually care to shave payroll.

 

I'd move both Santiago and Santana if feasible. I'd be offering Santana up to any clubs who have asked about Quintana or Archer but are too squeamish about the asking prices. Which should be every team that has asked about Quintana and Archer.

[laloesch]

 

Giving away Santiago and taking back Kazmir or McCarthy would be a push as far as rotation spots go in 2017. I'm not sure if the Twins would be willing take on more money or if the Dodgers even actually care to shave payroll.

 

I'd move both Santiago and Santana if feasible. I'd be offering Santana up to any clubs who have asked about Quintana or Archer but are too squeamish about the asking prices. Which should be every team that has asked about Quintana and Archer.

 

 

I think the pain in selling Santiago and Santana (well Santana mainly) is the impact on wins & losses for the team.  Dealing Santana could bring back valuable prospects but it will undoubtedly make the situation worse in the short term.  That said, the time to sell Santana before he's a free agent or declines is now or next season before the deadline, IMO.

Edited December 12, 2016 by laloesch

[Brandon]

What about trading Polanco for DeLeon?  how is that for a framework of a deal?