Article: Winter Meetings Are Over. Now What?

[Nick Nelson]

The busiest period of the Hot Stove season came and went with the Minnesota Twins making barely a peep.

 

So, where do we go from here?We now have a little under two weeks remaining until the holiday season gets underway. During the time period surrounding Christmas and New Year's, major league front offices go mostly silent. You'll see a few moves announced during this stretch, but for the most part there will be minimal action. It's the dead zone of the MLB offseason.

 

However, there's still some time left before we get there. The first two weeks of December are generally pretty active. During this stretch, many of the discussions that developed during the Winter Meetings reach completion. Free agents who don't want to end the year unemployed settle on their favorite offer.

 

So, what are the next steps for the Minnesota Twins, who have been very quiet thus far outside of signing Jason Castro and acquiring minor-leaguer Justin Haley via trade?

 

Ongoing Dozier Discussions

 

Things have conspicuously been quiet on this front. There were many reports of advanced talks between the Twins and Dodgers last week, but recent days have produced little in the way of substantive buzz. Hunger for news on the topic has grown so insatiable that one user-initiated thread in our forums, with a "source" indicating a deal would be completed within 24 hours (that deadline passed last Thursday) has generated more than 1,200 replies.

 

I personally believe a deal will go down, because the motivation on both sides is considerable. The most likely window for such an eventuality would be within the next 10 days or so, but that's not a given to occur. When the Twins made their last trade of this magnitude, sending Johan Santana to the Mets following the 2007 season, an announcement didn't come until late January.

 

On the one hand, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine shouldn't feel rushed in getting this done. The leverage is on their side, because Dozier is a hell of a player with two affordable years remaining on his contract. While Minnesota's need for quality young pitching borders on desperate, it isn't as immediate as LA's need for an impact second baseman with offensive punch.

 

On the other hand, they need to move forward with the rest of their plans, which would be significantly altered by removing Dozier from the equation while adding MLB-ready talent coming back in the swap.

 

I'm expecting something to be finalized soon.

 

Arbitration Haggling

 

The official deadline for teams and unsigned arbitration-eligible players to submit figures doesn't come until mid-January, but there's no doubt that conversations are already taking place.

 

The Twins already took care of business with their two position players, releasing Trevor Plouffe and reaching agreement with Eduardo Escobar on a one-year, $2.6 million pact. That leaves four pitchers: Hector Santiago, Kyle Gibson, Brandon Kintzler and Ryan Pressly. The latter three shouldn't be grounds for much drama. Each is expected to settle at less than $4 million, and each has a fairly secure spot on the 2017 pitching staff.

 

Santiago could be trickier. He made $5 million this year and will be looking to maximize earnings in his final turn at arbitration. He stayed healthy enough to post career highs in starts (33) and innings (182), so there's a good case for a hefty raise.

 

However, he also delivered a poor performance in 2016, and the Twins received the worst portion of it in the final months. He has some distinct weaknesses – particularly his propensity for allowing walks and home runs – that should make an analytically-inclined front office squirm a little. If he makes $8.6 million, as MLB Trade Rumors projects, then this veteran with a 103 career ERA+ would stand to be the fourth-highest paid player on the 2017 roster.

 

It's a questionable investment for a rebuilding team with several young starters worth taking a look at, and more potentially on the way in a Dozier deal. I do wonder if we'll see the Twins float Santiago around to contenders seeking back-of-rotation reliability.

 

Fishing For Free Agents

 

The Twins have already made their biggest splash in free agency with the addition of Castro. I wouldn't be surprised if we don't see another multi-year contract. But we'll almost surely see more signings. Specifically, I anticipate the addition of one or two experienced relievers through this avenue.

 

Kenley Jansen is the only member of the "big three" still out there now that Aroldis Chapman and Mark Melancon have signed lucrative deals, but there are many intriguing names still on the market. Among them are Neftali Feliz, Santiago Casilla, Greg Holland and Drew Storen. These guys all have closing experience but won't break the bank, and that's appealing with the uncertainty surrounding Glen Perkins.

 

Looking past guaranteed deals, the Twins have historically had a tendency to sign at least one reliever to a minor-league contract and then give him a spot in the bullpen. Last year that was Kintzler, though it took him a month to reach the majors. The year before, it was Blaine Boyer. Previous examples include Casey Fien, Dennys Reyes and Jared Burton (who, incidentally, is trying to make a comeback after taking 2015 off). We don't know if this trend will carry over to the new regime, but as those names attest, it can be an effective strategy.

 

One name to watch is Clayton Richard, who was connected to the club by Darren Wolfson last week. He's not the kind of arm that's going to generate much excitement, but Richard fits the mold of what the Twins should be seeking: a specialized lefty suppressor who has been around the block a few times.

 

The bullpen is presently very short on southpaws with meaningful big-league track records. As far as left-handed relievers go, currently the 40-man roster includes (aside from Perkins) only Taylor Rogers, Buddy Boshers, Ryan O'Rourke, Mason Melotakis and Randy Rosario. No one amongst that quintet has made more than 62 appearances in the majors.

 

What do you expect to see over the next couple of weeks? What do you hope to see?

 

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[Baseball Bat]

I still think DaveW was right and the Dodgers and Twins were just wrong

[DaveW]

I still think DaveW was right and the Dodgers and Twins were just wrong

The trade is still on.

[theBOMisthebomb]

Sweet - DaveW digging in his heels. This is getting entertaining.

[DaveW]

Sweet - DaveW digging in his heels. This is getting entertaining.

Not digging my heels in, just relaying what my source (who is very credible and has been cleared with one owner and one mod) is saying. That's all!

[nytwinsfan]

"Still on" meaning a deal has been reached or "still on" meaning they are still close? I assume you mean the latter. It didn't sound like from your post on reddit that the Dodgers' last offer had advanced the ball much.

[DaveW]

"Still on" meaning a deal has been reached or "still on" meaning they are still close? I assume you mean the latter. It didn't sound like from your post on reddit that the Dodgers' last offer had advanced the ball much.

Lol yeah someone on Reddit deleted it! Lame!

 

Still on meaning it's close, dodgers have made a "final offer" but who knows what that even means, final offers have even been known to change from time to time.

[amjgt]

Jesus, people... drop it. Sometimes sources are right and sometimes they aren't.

 

Bringing it up in the original article seemed unnecessary.

[Rosterman]

The Twins have to pick another coaching staff member.

 

They have to make announcements about the minor league staff, from the coordinators to who manages/hitting coach/pitching coach at each level.

 

Some more reorganization should be happening in the front office.

 

Look for 6-8 minor league free agents to be signed.

 

Don't see much else happening. think the Twins will be content to stay with Dozier for now.

 

Buy winter coats for everyone going on the pre-Twinsfest Caravans.

 

Oh, yes...figure out "how to sell" the team, and not the field, in 2017.

 

 

[DaveW]

The Twins have to pick another coaching staff member.

 

They have to make announcements about the minor league staff, from the coordinators to who manages/hitting coach/pitching coach at each level.

 

Some more reorganization should be happening in the front office.

 

Look for 6-8 minor league free agents to be signed.

 

Don't see much else happening. think the Twins will be content to stay with Dozier for now.

 

Buy winter coats for everyone going on the pre-Twinsfest Caravans.

 

Oh, yes...figure out "how to sell" the team, and not the field, in 2017.

Yeah I think season ticket sales are going to be BRUTAL this season. The sales team have their jobs cut out for them.

[Baseball Bat]

 

Jesus, people... drop it. Sometimes sources are right and sometimes they aren't.

Bringing it up in the original article seemed unnecessary.

I agree, I had fun with DaveW's post. Heck, there is still a chance that the bulk of it could prove to be true. It was fun to talk about and get away from our everyday lives for a bit. Baseball is fun, and rumor speculation can be even more fun. Sometimes people take it too seriously it seems like. DaveW certainly has to face the music for making a bold claim, and making jokes on threads is completely fine. But going out of someones way to direct message him and rip on him seems excessive and I think those people need to find other things to do. 

[DaveW]

 

I agree, I had fun with DaveW's post. Heck, there is still a chance that the bulk of it could prove to be true. It was fun to talk about and get away from our everyday lives for a bit. Baseball is fun, and rumor speculation can be even more fun. Sometimes people take it too seriously it seems like. DaveW certainly has to face the music for making a bold claim, and making jokes on threads is completely fine. But going out of someones way to direct message him and rip on him seems excessive and I think those people need to find other things to do. 

I appreciate the support, I really do. But honestly it's all good at this point!

Like I said if this trade doesn't happen I will face the music like the nostradumbass that I really am and we will have fun with it. 

Personally, like I mentioned in another thread, if I ran the team I would actually be looking to extend Dozier a couple years, he could be a real nice piece of the core moving forward IMO and he is my third favorite current Twin behind Mauer and Perkins.

Anyways, let's not derail this thread, but I do appreciate the kind words, even from a baseball bat! lol

[Baseball Bat]

Back on track. I'd like to see the Twins sign Drew Storen for a year or two deal. He can't be going for more than 2 and $10 Mil at this point. Seems like a low risk, high reward deal. Members of the Twins FO have always been interested in him and he could have the opportunity to close here. Something he likely wouldn't have elsewhere.

 

I'm also ready to move on from Danny Santana, I've just never been a huge fan of his and think we are better off this Season with signing an outfielder that is still on the market like Rajai Davis. 

[DaveW]

I can't believe Danny Santana is still on the roster or even an option, I think he literally was one of the worst 2 or 3 position players in baseball the last 2 years or so.

Storen would be a good get IMO.

[DocBauer]

1* Bounce back closer option. Perez makes the most sense

 

2* LHRP low cost signing

 

3* utility infielder

 

4* legit 4th OF

 

5* AAA OF and a couple AAA INF for Rochester depth

 

Of course, this is aftEr the Dozier deal and probable Santana trade

[Baseball Bat]

 

I can't believe Danny Santana is still on the roster or even an option, I think he literally was one of the worst 2 or 3 position players in baseball the last 2 years or so.

Storen would be a good get IMO.

For Santana to even have a .300 OBP he would like have to hit at least .280, which I don't think he is capable of. He is just a liability offensively and defensively. Everything besides 2014 shows that he is a below replacement level player. Seems like he is being hung onto for the sole reason that he has above average speed.

[DaveW]

 

For Santana to even have a .300 OBP he would like have to hit at least .280, which I don't think he is capable of. He is just a liability offensively and defensively. Everything besides 2014 shows that he is a below replacement level player. Seems like he is being hung onto for the sole reason that he has above average speed.

Well said. I'm not trying to rag on the guy as Santana probably has a spot with several other ogs at this stage of his career, but for a rebuilding team like the Twins? Absolutely not.

It would be like trading for Butera at this stage:

 

Good backup for a contending team

Pointless backup for a rebuilding team

If that makes sense?

[darin617]

 

1* Bounce back closer option. Perez makes the most sense

2* LHRP low cost signing

3* utility infielder

4* legit 4th OF

5* AAA OF and a couple AAA INF for Rochester depth

Of course, this is aftEr the Dozier deal and probable Santana trade

Change #4 to a legit 3rd outfielder.

As much as I have always liked Eddie Rosario he doesn't seem like the right fit. He still needs much more work to become a starter for a good team. If he could show some discipline at the plate and raise his OBP he could be that guy. When it takes 7 years of playing professionally to draw 209 career walks something has to change. The worst part he hasn't broke 20 hr's since his early minor league years.

[Baseball Bat]

 

Change #4 to a legit 3rd outfielder.

As much as I have always liked Eddie Rosario he doesn't seem like the right fit. He still needs much more work to become a starter for a good team. If he could show some discipline at the plate and raise his OBP he could be that guy. When it takes 7 years of playing professionally to draw 209 career walks something has to change. The worst part he hasn't broke 20 hr's since his early minor league years.

His OBP is similar to the Santana situation. He needs to hit darn near .290 to reach .300 in OBP. Thats just not going to get it done from an everyday outfielder. I like Eddie and would take that if he provided a lot of pop, triples, and borderline gold glove defense. He does seem too inconsistent for that all to come together at this stage in his career. I agree that a 3rd outfielder would be ideal to have. That is why I like Rajai Davis in that position. No idea what his price would be and I would assume we'd have to pay a bit of a premium to take him away from a contender.

[Baseball Bat]

 

It would be like trading for Butera at this stage:

 

Good backup for a contending team

Pointless backup for a rebuilding team

If that makes sense?

Valid comparison. I think a guy like Jarrod Dyson from the Royals falls into that category as well. Just a better version of it

[Nick Nelson]

 

Jesus, people... drop it. Sometimes sources are right and sometimes they aren't.

Bringing it up in the original article seemed unnecessary.

I was remarking with genuine astonishment at how much conversation that thread generated. I'm not hating, it's good fodder. But I put "source" in quotes because until someone develops a track record for accurate reporting I'll always be skeptical of such claims.

 

I'll also add that I have known Dave for a long time and consider him a friend. There's no animosity intended here. 

[DaveW]

 

 

I'll also add that I have known Dave for a long time and consider him a friend. There's no animosity intended here. 

Video from the last time Nick and I hung out, which I think was at Twins legend Frankie Rodriguez's club/bar?

 

Edited December 12, 2016 by DaveW

[DaveW]

 

His OBP is similar to the Santana situation. He needs to hit darn near .290 to reach .300 in OBP. Thats just not going to get it done from an everyday outfielder. I like Eddie and would take that if he provided a lot of pop, triples, and borderline gold glove defense. He does seem too inconsistent for that all to come together at this stage in his career. I agree that a 3rd outfielder would be ideal to have. That is why I like Rajai Davis in that position. No idea what his price would be and I would assume we'd have to pay a bit of a premium to take him away from a contender.

See that is exactly why I think Rosario would have nice value as a CF for many teams.
I think he could hit enough to be at least "average" for a MLB CF, and could handle the defense at least average as well. An "average" MLB CF has a ton of value IMO.

 

Just doesn't hit enough to be a corner OF type, especially on a team that frankly isn't getting any power currently from: 1B/DH/SS/C and even the other corner OF spot (Kepler) isn't a 30 HR guy now as well.

If Mauer was smacking 25 a year behind the dish or something, we had Ortiz at DH hitting 40 dongs, Kepler was hitting 30 and Dozier (who likely will be traded) hitting 40, then we could survive with a guy like Rosario in LF, but at this stage? we need a guy with pop, plain and simple.

[Oldgoat_MN]

The new guys have to do something, and probably in their way of thinking, something big. The way to do that is to trade Dozier.

 

This will show the team owners and fans that they intend to shake things up. After the last 6 seasons everyone should think that is an excellent idea.

 

I see very little chance of Dozier not being traded. It is interesting that the Dodgers are the only team that has really even been hinted. People mention the Yankees, but they have to be hoping for a bounce-back from Starlin Castro, as this was the first year of a 7 year, $60 million contract.  You don't just walk away from that because of one bad year.

 

I expect them to trade Brian Dozier.

I just hope they make it count.

 

[Platoon]

Dozier is kind of the key to unlocking the door. Moving him brings in pitching. Allows Polanco to move to what is likely his natural position. Forces the team to hasten the upgrade of the black hole at SS. Defensively the choice between EE and Polanco is a wash. If Dozier stays for two years, the Twins middle infield defense stays static for those two years. That's not good. Dozier is a solid player, but not irreplaceable. He is also the only logical path to overall improving the teams largest weaknesses. Quality depth at SP, and MI defense. I hope we don't overplay our hand in making a deal.

[nytwinsfan]

 

Dozier is kind of the key to unlocking the door. Moving him brings in pitching. Allows Polanco to move to what is likely his natural position. Forces the team to hasten the upgrade of the black hole at SS. Defensively the choice between EE and Polanco is a wash. If Dozier stays for two years, the Twins middle infield defense stays static for those two years. That's not good. Dozier is a solid player, but not irreplaceable. He is also the only logical path to overall improving the teams largest weaknesses. Quality depth at SP, and MI defense. I hope we don't overplay our hand in making a deal.

Agree with everything but the bolded part. Escobar is better defensively than Polanco, at least right now.  Both stats and eye test affirm that. Don't think you can reasonably argue otherwise.

[HitInAPinch]

I never really had any expectations of the Winter Meetings.  Seems like the 1st thing we heard was Falvey and Levine were just now meeting some of their team members for the first time.  I followed DaveW's Forum and all I could think of is:  a Dozier trade isn't going to be made right now.  The timing is off.

 

If / when a Dozier trade is made, I'd like to see a return of pitchers only, spread across MiLB levels.  Pitchers are pretty much being priced out of MN market.

 

I think Falvey will be spending more time looking at player development than anything else.  There seems to be a disconnect between MiLB instruction and MLB needs. In the MLB, the Twins had to rework the mechanics of Berrios, Duffey and Buxton.  Not really a good sign.

[HitInAPinch]

Missed this one:   http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/minor-mlb-transactions-121116.html

 

Catcher Dan Rohlfing is back with the Twins. 

[DaveW]

Missed this one: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/minor-mlb-transactions-121116.html

 

Catcher Dan Rohlfing is back with the Twins.

Nice minor league depth, I think we just lost a guy in the rule 5 draft as well, so this was needed.

[olivia11]

1. Trade Dozier (my hope would be for De Leon, Alvarez + two other low/organizational filler pieces). 

 

Then, that allows the Twins to do the following: 

 

-Trade a starting pitcher.  Either E. Santana or Santiago.  I personally think a Santana trade makes more sense at the trade deadline.  Teams will be more desperate then and it also means Santana's around for the first half to mentor, in particular, Berrios and De Leon.  A Santiago trade makes more sense, even if it's a relatively buy-low moment.  The added value of the Santiago trade is it opens up a few more possibilities in the rotation.  I'd like to see Santana, Gibson, May, Berrios, De Leon with Hughes being the question mark. By mid-season, Mejia, Gonsalves and Slegers could all be knocking on the door. 

 

-Sign a utility infielder who can play above-average defense at shortstop.  I am a big Eduardo Escobar fan and think he deserves another shot.  He's a better defender than he was in 2016.  But Twins should also get some insurance on the defensive side. 

 

-Sign a LHRP if the contract is right.  I don't think it makes sense to sign anyone, anyone mediocre-enough to want to come to the Twins right now, to more than a 2-year contract.  

 

-Sign a few bounce-back reliever candidates to minor league contracts. 

 

-Decide if the Twins believe in Danny Santana, Robbie Grossman and Michael Tonkin.  Keep one...or two, not all three.  Then, commit to signing a 4th outfielder.