Article: Haley Trade Carries Shades Of Old And New

[Nick Nelson]

Carrying the No. 1 pick in Thursday's Rule 5 draft, the Minnesota Twins got creative, selecting coveted flamethrower Miguel Diaz and immediately trading him to the Padres in exchange for right-hander Justin Haley.

 

The maneuvering, and the thinking behind it, carried some distinctly familiar signatures of the previous regime, but also hints of fresh perspective from the new leadership.For Haley, Thursday morning was an unimaginable whirlwind. A former sixth-round draft pick of the Red Sox who had spent his entire career up to this point in Boston's system, Haley was the eighth player claimed in the Rule 5 when the Angels grabbed him. They then dealt the righty to the Padres, who immediately turned around and flipped him to the Twins along with cash for Diaz.

 

The way this situation played out is reminiscent to 1999, when Minnesota also held the top pick. They selected Jared Camp from the Indians, but then traded him to the Marlins in exchange for Johan Santana plus cash.

 

In that instance, the Twins got their guy along with some additional dollars. We all know how it ended up working out.

 

The mindset here was likely the same, though obviously we're not expecting the same kind of results. In passing up Diaz (and other ferocious hard-throwers) for Haley, the Twins prioritized utility over upside with this pick.

 

Santana was of course a special case. Haley looks more like a prototypical target of the Terry Ryan era. In fact, his build and statistical profile are comparable to Terry Doyle, who the Twins plucked from the White Sox system with a high pick in the 2011 Rule 5 draft before returning him a few months later in spring training.

 

For those who recall, Doyle isn't a comp that's going to generate any kind of enthusiasm. It was an uninspired move that worked out rather predictably for a team that desperately needed to bolster its pitching corps with high-ceiling talent.

 

Despite some similarities on the surface though, Haley is no Doyle. And as you learn about what the revamped front office likes about him, you start to see some of the aforementioned distinctions arise.

 

Unlike the many high-velocity specimens that were available, Haley's fastball sits in the high 80s and low 90s. Delivering from a big 6'5" frame, he creates a downward plane that helps him keep the ball in yard; last year between Double-A and Triple-A he gave up only nine homers in 146 innings.

 

Yet, among the things that general manager Thad Levine alluded to when discussing Haley was not his ability to attack the low part of the zone – a trademark mantra from Ryan and his disciples that was frequently echoed on the team's television broadcasts. Instead, Levine pointed out that the 25-year-old "pitches very effectively in the top of the zone with his fastball and then pairs it up with offspeed pitches that are more at the bottom of the zone."

 

You can see this dynamic on display in the footage tweeted by Parker, wherein Haley burns high heaters past waving onlookers and then drops a few breaking balls at the knees.

 

 

Despite those whiffs, and Levine referencing "swing and miss percentages," there is no illusion that Haley is going to be a dominant strikeout pitcher. He's a guy with a 7.8 K/9 rate through the minors, and one that Boston's organization – reputed for its evaluation and handling of prospect talent – didn't feel compelled to protect.

 

Haley is simply a capable, major-league ready player who can serve a valuable role on the Twins staff. La Velle E. Neal III compared the hurler's likely function to former swingman Anthony Swarzak. Of course, Swarzak was never a great pitcher but he was definitely useful, flexibly eating up innings after (sadly plentiful) short outings and always ready to step in for a spot start.

 

It appears that the Twins have similar designs for the newly acquired Haley, who stands out as an interesting bridge between the old and new versions of the Minnesota front office.

 

My final takeaway from the move, though, is that it shares this commonality with much of the latter Ryan era: there's no 'sell out for the future' vibe here. The Twins could have gone with a raw power arm and stashed him in the back of the bullpen all summer, if they were of the mind that 2017 is already a lost cause. On the contrary, Haley's polish and readiness to contribute are atop his list of positives. This is how a team operates when it's got an eye on competing in the short term.

 

Could hold-ups in the Dozier trade be related to that very same directive? On this week's Gleeman and the Geek podcast, we wondered aloud how much of a deal-breaker it would be to receive little in the way of MLB-ready talent from the Dodgers.

 

Click here to view the article

[Han Joelo]

Nice breakdown. I prefer to think of Haley in the Neshek/Breslin mold, even if it's got no justification whatsoever.

[DaveW]

Nick, no thoughts on the Dozier Dodgers imminent trade?

[Mr. Brooks]

I have to say I was hoping for more of a boom/bust upside pick rather than some soft tosser.

The old regime could have made this pick.

[Mr. Brooks]

And if this team keeps everyone thinking they can compete with a couple minor tweaks I'm going to be pretty bummed.

Again, the old regime could have done that.

[Seth Stohs]

Two things:

 

1.) I think that we are going to find that most GMs make a lot of very similar moves. Teams with the biggest budgets can do a few more things, take more risks because money doesn't matter as much. Teams with low budgets need to be creative, but they have to deal players earlier for financial reasons. Sometimes those trade work, sometimes they don't.

 

2.) I think we can know that Falvey and Levine are going to use many more data points to have come to those decisions. Those data points will include all forms of analytics, reaching out to scouts, coaches and several others in the organization. 

 

It's going to be interest to evaluate each transaction, but i'll be important to know that a ton of information will have gone into those decisions.

[Monkeypaws]

 

And if this team keeps everyone thinking they can compete with a couple minor tweaks I'm going to be pretty bummed.
Again, the old regime could have done that.

 

You have to achieve competency before competitiveness.

 

If this guy can help them lose less than 90-100 games next season, it's a start.

[AZTwin]

I'd rather have kept Stuart turner then get this guy

[twins_89]

I would have much preferred a high upside high risk type of player. Getting a guy who might contribute a little bit but has no upside makes little sense for a team that has to improve by 22 wins just to get to .500.

[USAFChief]

I thought there was also a PTBNL coming the Twins way in this transaction, from the Padres. No?

[Twins33]

I thought there was also a PTBNL coming the Twins way in this transaction, from the Padres. No?

think it was a PTBNL or cash and I think most of the reports said they believe it will be cash.

[AZTwin]

Maybe they were only hoping to get cash from the rule 5 pick and the guys they have coming back for dozier will be on the 40 man so no harm lost if they lose whoever they took in the draft

[Seth Stohs]

 

think it was a PTBNL or cash and I think most of the reports said they believe it will be cash.

 

They're almost always cash. 

[theBOMisthebomb]

The hope was that the new regime would make drastically different moves than ol' TR. Maybe that just isn't realistic and makes no sense. It is a tad bit disappointing, though.

[Seth Stohs]

Getting a guy who some believe has a chance to be a starter in the Rule 5 is pretty unusual. I get that people don't like to read about guys that top out at 92, but that is where a large percentage of starting pitchers in teh big leagues are. If he can even be a back-end of the rotation guy, this is a huge win. If not, he's a normal Rule 5 guy who goes back to his original team. We forget that Scott Diamond and Ryan Pressly are Rule 5 successes..

[USAFChief]

Getting a guy who some believe has a chance to be a starter in the Rule 5 is pretty unusual. I get that people don't like to read about guys that top out at 92, but that is where a large percentage of starting pitchers in teh big leagues are. If he can even be a back-end of the rotation guy, this is a huge win. If not, he's a normal Rule 5 guy who goes back to his original team. We forget that Scott Diamond and Ryan Pressly are Rule 5 successes..

So why not just take the guy with the first pick?

[Seth Stohs]

 

So why not just take the guy with the first pick?

 

When you know you can get him and get more back, why not? The Twins reportedly had a lot of teams contacting them about the #1 pick. They used it to their advantage, as they should. 

 

[Mr. Brooks]

When you know you can get him and get more back, why not? The Twins reportedly had a lot of teams contacting them about the #1 pick. They used it to their advantage, as they should.

If this guy has so much value as a potential #5 starter, then why did nobody else want him?

Number 5 starters can be had at any time. I'd rather shoot for something better, even if it's likely to not pan out.

[mikelink45]

I am hoping that there is something in a plan that makes this more interesting than it looks.  We have potential swing men like Duffey, but if Kinzler regresses, Pressley does not move forward, it would have been fun to at least see someone throwing flames from the mound.  

 

It is an interesting speculation year. 

[Dave The Dastardly]

 

So why not just take the guy with the first pick?

Good question. What's the end game? Are we trying to get back to .500 ball or just playing Make A Deal?

[Han Joelo]

I like to think Haley is a real diamond in the rough, a potential Kuechel in the making.

 

It is wishful thinking, yes, but I still like it.

[SotaFan14]

Look at the his numbers.  They look good, he has a good K rate, BB are low, hits are low, and he keeps the ball in the park.  With the fastball being up in the zone and the offspeed pitches being down in the zone, the batters have a lot of strike zone to cover.  Yes, against minor leaguers but if the coaching staff can hone those skills and he can gain 1-3 mph on the fasball(out of the pen) you have a guy throwing 95 with great pitches, not just good.

 

Let's see how it plays out.  I would rather have him on the mound than a guy that throws 100 but can only get it in the zone 1 out 4.

 

Keep it rolling Derek/Thad.  It's still 3 months until Spring training!

[Doomtints]

I'm not understanding some of the disappointment.  This is a rule 5 pick.  In that context, this is a very good pick up.  It's a guy who has a chance to contribute right away.  And if he doesn't work out ... this was just a rule 5 pick....

Edited December 9, 2016 by Doomtints

[Mike Sixel]

It's the rule 5 draft, the only interesting thing is that it is something to talk about. The odds on these guys are longer than the icicle hanging from a MN roof w/o insulation....

[terrydactyls]

Remember that this is the Rule 5 draft and not the amateur draft. The pickings aren't team altering talents. So if the Twins are lucky and end up with a back of the order pitcher, then I say good job. Also, the Twins have plenty of flame throwers on the horizon. It might be a nice change of pace, however, to see the someone that actually throws his fastball in the strike zone. And finally (before I take my mid-morning nap), remeber that Greg Maddox barely topped 90 MPH and he did alright for himself. (You younger guys may have to look up Maddox.)

[Doomtints]

 

Remember that this is the Rule 5 draft and not the amateur draft. The pickings aren't team altering talents. So if the Twins are lucky and end up with a back of the order pitcher, then I say good job. Also, the Twins have plenty of flame throwers on the horizon. It might be a nice change of pace, however, to see the someone that actually throws his fastball in the strike zone. And finally (before I take my mid-morning nap), remeber that Greg Maddox barely topped 90 MPH and he did alright for himself. (You younger guys may have to look up Maddox.)

 

Those pesky youngins might have better luck finding him if they look up Maddux instead. (Though I imagine everyone knows who he is.  He retired just 8 years ago).

 

Maddux was truly great.  4 consecutive Cy Young awards on two different teams.  Back when the Cubs were constantly struggling, they let Maddux go as he was about to peak and then re-signed him after his peak years were gone.  Ryan's second stint seemed to emulate this model a bit but with even worse results.

Edited December 9, 2016 by Doomtints

[d-mac]

 

I have to say I was hoping for more of a boom/bust upside pick rather than some soft tosser.
The old regime could have made this pick.

 

Haven't you heard, velocity is so passe? 

 

But seriously, one of the big takeaways from Pitch F/x is that "effective velocity", spin rate, and command matter much more than the reading on the radar gun. 

[d-mac]

 

I like to think Haley is a real diamond in the rough, a potential Kuechel in the making.

 

It is wishful thinking, yes, but I still like it.

 

I think that's what they're thinking with the spin rate. It's better to be at the forefront of a trend for once, instead of trying to play catch-up with previous trends a la chasing pure velocity. Besides, adding pitchers with plus spin rates is probably a better way to achieve the goal of missing bats than pure velocity.

 

If my degree in economics and years of working in the finance industry has taught me anything, it's that being a late adopter to a trend is always a losing proposition. In other words, teams are placing a premium on velocity- no good is going to come from playing catch up and having to pay a premium, why not look for other areas in which we can gain an advantage? Otherwise we're buying high and selling low. Buy low, sell high. Always. 

[Mark Chapin]

Would the Adam Eaton return have been acceptable if that is what the Twins' receive for Dozier?

[NE Gopher]

Maybe they invision Haley having good success with catching that is adept at pitch framing? Tommy Malone isn't overpowering by any means but he had some success as a back end starter.