DaveW: Dodgers trade for Dozier to be completed within the next 24 hours

[Darius]

24 hours? Hey, I'm only about 2 years old at this rate. Even Chief is a youngster.

We have a few months....but have some decency, Falvey. What else am I supposed to do at work this week? Read about the Gophers Football and Vikings epic Hindenburg impressions? I'd rather work..... and/or spend the day in one of the more horrific levels of Dante's Inferno (if there is even a discernible difference).

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Yeah, the defense isn't quite the big deal some make it seem. Our biggest defensive issues last year were Grossman and Danny Santana. Now, Molitor could certainly end up using them a lot but ideally he won't. Sano will probably not be good at third but I think he'll be our only bad defender. Our problem is, outside of Buxton, I don't think we have many players that can be much better than average. Which isn't horrible if we see the expected improvements from certain players but we'd like to see something better than that (one of the reasons I agree with Warne about trying to nab Profar).

and Polanco and Nunez and Rosario in CF and Suzuki. Suzuki has been replaced. Buxton might be entrenched in CF. SS is a big question and there's no real place yet for Polanco. I'm not convinced Profar is a step up at SS, but agree that something should be done.

 

It's only 6/12 of the position players . Geez lighten up

[DocBauer]

Our offense has work to do, it's average at the very best, and the ones creating this offense are also the one playing the horrible defense.  It's why our position players were 25th in the majors in WAR (14th in AL)

Numbers don't lie, at least not completely. As a result, I'm not going to formally disagree with you.

 

But I will offer a rebuttal.

 

Our OF defense has the ability to be very good defensively. In fact, with ranger and overall athletic, the only negative I can begin to find is Kepler maybe having an aveerge arm. Do they have to grow offensively? Yes. But Rosario, Buxton and Kepler are all 3 quite young and still growing, learning on the job as it were, and have real talent. I think Kepler may end up being the most complete hitter of the three and may just be our next 3 hitter. Buxton has made skills and was finally coming alive late in the season. Rosario is a bit of enigma, but we saw what he is capable of in 2015, and saw glimpses last season after his demotion.

 

I feel Polanco has all the ability in the world to be a valuable hitter and quality defensive 2B, with some pop and speed. Vargas and Park I'm less sold on, but given health and opportunity, they are a couple of bats that have potential and need to play to see what they can actually do over a sustained period. Both have power, Vargas can switch hit, (at different times he's hit better from each side), and he shows some OB ability. Park isn't ancient, has good power, and had an early season stretch where he flashed.

 

Sano only needs to be average at 3B to be a huge asset.

 

Part of the problems we had defensively in 2016 was guys playing that shouldn't have been playing, and guys playing out of position. SS is a question still, but a healthy Escobar playing and performing more like 2014-15 could/should be solid. More than anything for this upcoming season, I'm looking for a mostly set lineup where guys that should be playing, and need to play actually...you know...get to play.

[HitInAPinch]

 

Our offense has work to do, it's average at the very best, and the ones creating this offense are also the one playing the horrible defense.  It's why our position players were 25th in the majors in WAR (14th in AL)

Oh, no question.  But I think we need to temper that judgement by looking at the MLB service time those players have. 

 

Just tossing this off the top of my head, but I think it's pretty true that, for most player, there's about a 2 year period where they adjust to the speed of the MLB game before there's any success.  Rosario and Sano are approaching or at that 2nd year.  I would expect improvement from both.  Buxton, Kepler, Polanco and a bunch of pitchers are just getting started. 

 

I think this'll be a fun year to watch Twins development, but expect another losing season.

 

EDIT:  just read some of the other commentaries.  Sorry jimmer.  Didn't mean to gangup on you.

[The Wise One]

The trade that was supposed to be done within the day. I hope my aging process is the same as one of Dave's days. I will have a lifespan longer than Methuselah 

[Platoon]

Numbers don't lie, at least not completely. As a result, I'm not going to formally disagree with you.

But I will offer a rebuttal.

Our OF defense has the ability to be very good defensively. In fact, with ranger and overall athletic, the only negative I can begin to find is Kepler maybe having an aveerge arm. Do they have to grow offensively? Yes. But Rosario, Buxton and Kepler are all 3 quite young and still growing, learning on the job as it were, and have real talent. I think Kepler may end up being the most complete hitter of the three and may just be our next 3 hitter. Buxton has made skills and was finally coming alive late in the season. Rosario is a bit of enigma, but we saw what he is capable of in 2015, and saw glimpses last season after his demotion.

I feel Polanco has all the ability in the world to be a valuable hitter and quality defensive 2B, with some pop and speed. Vargas and Park I'm less sold on, but given health and opportunity, they are a couple of bats that have potential and need to play to see what they can actually do over a sustained period. Both have power, Vargas can switch hit, (at different times he's hit better from each side), and he shows some OB ability. Park isn't ancient, has good power, and had an early season stretch where he flashed.

Sano only needs to be average at 3B to be a huge asset.

Part of the problems we had defensively in 2016 was guys playing that shouldn't have been playing, and guys playing out of position. SS is a question still, but a healthy Escobar playing and performing more like 2014-15 could/should be solid. More than anything for this upcoming season, I'm looking for a mostly set lineup where guys that should be playing, and need to play actually...you know...get to play.

. Someone on here advocated switching Rosario and Kepler around, I might try that. Either way this has the chance of being a very good defense OF, with Buxton as the key piece of course. Sanos bat will have to carry his glove. His defense is actually more erratic than bad. An elite glove first SS would take some of Sanos deficits away. Someone else mentioned this being an average defense? It is quite possible they were correct. But pairing an average defense with a less than average pitching staff likely won't turn out well. Your mention of seeing a set lineup in place with guys where they belong brings up the specter of Molitors managing style. Will he finally quit shuffling in fourth OF everyday, and playing the reserve IF in left field? And of course the big question? If he doesn't, what happens?

[ppearson50]

Gleeman and the Geek show's John Bonnes said one of the rumors is the Twins not only want Deleon but Bellinger as well in a package. So that is apparently what the hold up is. - the Twins wanting the Dodger's top two prospects plus more (Stewart?). I get the feeling that the Dodgers will probably be moving onto some other second baseman trade soon if that is the case. 

[DocBauer]

Oh, no question. But I think we need to temper that judgement by looking at the MLB service time those players have.

 

Just tossing this off the top of my head, but I think it's pretty true that, for most player, there's about a 2 year period where they adjust to the speed of the MLB game before there's any success. Rosario and Sano are approaching or at that 2nd year. I would expect improvement from both. Buxton, Kepler, Polanco and a bunch of pitchers are just getting started.

 

I think this'll be a fun year to watch Twins development, but expect another losing season.

 

EDIT: just read some of the other commentaries. Sorry jimmer. Didn't mean to gangup on you.

Just to expand a bit on your point, Rosario and Sano lead with something like a whopping 770 and 750 ML AB.

[nytwinsfan]

 

Gleeman and the Geek show's John Bonnes said one of the rumors is the Twins not only want Deleon but Bellinger as well in a package. So that is apparently what the hold up is. - the Twins wanting the Dodger's top two prospects plus more (Stewart?). I get the feeling that the Dodgers will probably be moving onto some other second baseman trade soon if that is the case. 

That's a rumor, same as what DaveW has said. I tend to trust DaveW a little more because (1) he's been consistent for a week or more now despite other aspects of his prediction (timing) not coming true, and (2) I think the Dodgers are more likely to trade Alvarez than Bellinger, since Bellinger is closer to the majors and has a spot that will be ready for him in a year or so. But of course, both could be true. It could be that the Dodgers have offered De Leon + Alvarez + AAAA player, and the Twins EITHER want Bellinger instead of Alvarez OR a better third/fourth piece.

[brockbesler]

That's a rumor, same as what DaveW has said. I tend to trust DaveW a little more because (1) he's been consistent for a week or more now despite other aspects of his prediction (timing) not coming true, and (2) I think the Dodgers are more likely to trade Alvarez than Bellinger, since Bellinger is closer to the majors and has a spot that will be ready for him in a year or so. But of course, both could be true. It could be that the Dodgers have offered De Leon + Alvarez + AAAA player, and the Twins EITHER want Bellinger instead of Alvarez OR a better third/fourth piece.

I think this is exactly right and I think this is the return the Twins need to receive. Alvarez is a good prospect but he's a long ways away. That's why the Twins want a decent third and fourth player. If I had to guess I would say the Twins are asking for Stewart or Lux as a third player if it De Leon and Alvarez.

[Squirrel]

 

That's a rumor, same as what DaveW has said. I tend to trust DaveW a little more because (1) he's been consistent for a week or more now despite other aspects of his prediction (timing) not coming true, and (2) I think the Dodgers are more likely to trade Alvarez than Bellinger, since Bellinger is closer to the majors and has a spot that will be ready for him in a year or so. But of course, both could be true. It could be that the Dodgers have offered De Leon + Alvarez + AAAA player, and the Twins EITHER want Bellinger instead of Alvarez OR a better third/fourth piece.

And that's what the hold up is, maybe ... the Twins want Bellinger and the Dodgers don't want to trade him. Could be the Twins are insistent on Bellinger in the trade in order to force the Dodgers to include better 3rd and 4th pieces ... we will see. And we will likely never know for sure no matter what happens.

[Cory Engelhardt]

DaveW, any updates?

[DaveW]

According to my source (which predated all of this) Bellinger isn't the hold up, they got "off" bellinger quite some time ago as it was mentioned early on in this thread, Dodgers more or less said he was off limits (which makes sense since he is nearly MLB ready and they think he can be a big contributor for them in 2017)

 

The twins have settled on DeLeon and Alvarez but want another good piece as well.

 

Dodgers are holding firm on sending back filler as pieces 3 and 4.

 

Don't read anything into the Giants, Mets etc being interested at this time, that is just a futile effort to try to "spin" it to make it seem like there is a larger realistic market for Dozier then there is.

 

Right now it's a question of who blinks first: The Twins or the Dodgers.

 

I'd guess it's the Dodgers and the Twins get a nice 3rd piece back (4th piece will either not exist or be a AAAA type)

[Cory Engelhardt]

According to my source (which predated all of this) Bellinger isn't the hold up, they got "off" bellinger quite some time ago as it was mentioned early on in this thread, Dodgers more or less said he was off limits (which makes sense since he is nearly MLB ready and they think he can be a big contributor for them in 2017)

The twins have settled on DeLeon and Alvarez but want another good piece as well.

Dodgers are holding firm on sending back filler as pieces 3 and 4.

Don't read anything into the Giants, Mets etc being interested at this time, that is just a futile effort to try to "spin" it to make it seem like there is a larger realistic market for Dozier then there is.

Right now it's a question of who blinks first: The Twins or the Dodgers.

I'd guess it's the Dodgers and the Twins get a nice 3rd piece back (4th piece will either not exist or be a AAAA type)

Thanks! How nice a piece are they talking? Do you have more names?

[gunnarthor]

Well, if Dave is right, that would be a nice return.  But looking at their system, they have a potential boat load of useful third options.  I'm a bit surprised that that would be the hold up.

[ppearson50]

Why don't they just take Deleon, Alverez and Stewart (who they have at least asked about) and call it a day. That is two MLB ready pitchers and Alverez who is a ways off. Works for me. 

[nicksaviking]

If this doesn't happen in the next couple of days, we probably better take a breath and expect no news until next year. I'm guessing not many front offices feel inclined to disturb players with life changing moves around the holidays.

[ppearson50]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/dodgers-agree-sign-cuban-second-baseman-omar-estevez/#mjoGokgSSYQZFPB3.97

 

How about this for a third piece. Dodger's 12 rated prospect. Cuban 18 year who can play 2nd or 3rd. He had 60 RBI in rookie ball last year. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Well, if Dave is right, that would be a nice return.  But looking at their system, they have a potential boat load of useful third options.  I'm a bit surprised that that would be the hold up.

That's why I've been doubting Dave's source.  If both sides were cool with De Leon and Alvarez as the top 2, I can't see how this has dragged on for 10 days, much less 10 days with only vague reports in the media.

[InfraRen]

You know, the Twins and Dodgers should really get this done...don't want the fans...erm, I mean the players and their families to have to toil about it and wonder through the holidays!

 

 

 

[King]

Why don't they just take Deleon, Alverez and Stewart (who they have at least asked about) and call it a day. That is two MLB ready pitchers and Alverez who is a ways off. Works for me.

If Stewart was the 3rd piece the deal would be done by now. Twins want rookie ball lottery tickets (Lux, Buehler, Heredia, or others more under the radar etc.) as the last pieces. Dodgers want the last players to be AA/AAA 45 FV guys with little upside.

[doscinco]

Buehler is not a lottery ticket

 

He is 1 of the 5 best prospects, was drafted as a college pitcher and has 1st round pedigree. He might have been in the majors right now if it wasn't for the injury setback.

[DaveW]

That's why I've been doubting Dave's source. If both sides were cool with De Leon and Alvarez as the top 2, I can't see how this has dragged on for 10 days, much less 10 days with only vague reports in the media.

Because there is no significant timeframe on when they need to get this done.

 

Also the difference between Stewart and a AAAA type as a third piece is pretty significant IMO.

 

It would be like the Twins just "tossing in" a guy like Kepler a few years ago just to get a trade done.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Because there is no significant timeframe on when they need to get this done.

Also the difference between Stewart and a AAAA type as a third piece is pretty significant IMO.

It would be like the Twins just "tossing in" a guy like Kepler a few years ago just to get a trade done.

Was there a significant timeframe on when the Sale and Eaton deals needed to get done?  I don't think trades that are that close to completion are just put completely on the back burner for 10+ days, even in the offseason, unless one or both parties aren't nearly as eager as your source made them out to be.

 

If the Twins could get De Leon and Alvarez, but are insisting on Stewart too, did your source simply assume the Dodgers would quickly cave to that demand 10 days ago?  If so, why didn't they?  Does it make you wonder if your source is misinterpreting something basic about the negotiations, like perhaps the De Leon plus Alvarez part isn't quite settled either?

[DaveW]

 

Was there a significant timeframe on when the Sale and Eaton deals needed to get done?  I don't think trades that are that close to completion are just put completely on the back burner for 10+ days, even in the offseason, unless one or both parties aren't nearly as eager as your source made them out to be.

 

If the Twins could get De Leon and Alvarez, but are insisting on Stewart too, did your source simply assume the Dodgers would quickly cave to that demand 10 days ago?  If so, why didn't they?  Does it make you wonder if your source is misinterpreting something basic about the negotiations, like perhaps the De Leon plus Alvarez part isn't quite settled either?

In Re: to Sale the White Sox absolutely wanted to trade him during the winter meetings, additionally the market for Sale was WHITE HOT, in this case, there really is no other trade partner who would offer anything near to what the Dodgers will offer for Dozier. Sure the Giants/Mets etc would love to have him, but they won't match the Dodgers offer.

The Eaton one came out of no where to be honest.

I am confident in my source who is pretty high up in one of the two orgs. 

Everything I said at the beginning of this thread has been now reported on (weeks later) by other reporters. DeLeon+Alvarez.

 

[gunnarthor]

 

In Re: to Sale the White Sox absolutely wanted to trade him during the winter meetings, additionally the market for Sale was WHITE HOT, in this case, there really is no other trade partner who would offer anything near to what the Dodgers will offer for Dozier. Sure the Giants/Mets etc would love to have him, but they won't match the Dodgers offer.

The Eaton one came out of no where to be honest.

I am confident in my source who is pretty high up in one of the two orgs. 

Everything I said at the beginning of this thread has been now reported on (weeks later) by other reporters. DeLeon+Alvarez.

 

I think I missed any Alvarez connection in other reports.  Anyone have a link to that?

[brockbesler]

Dave, thank you for keeping us updated to this point. It's unfortunate some people can't respect you. I have no doubt you have a legitimate source. I can't wait for this deal to go through and I believe it will happen.

[FunnyPenguin]

 

Thanks for the kind words!

Yeah it's all good, twitter is just a better platform for the updates anyways (that way people don't always have to wade through page after page of a couple posters who are making it their mission to somehow prove me wrong.

It is a legit source, I have spoken to two owners of this site about it and two mods. Who all seem appreciative that I brought the news here (and the 165k views on this thread! Plus all the new members lol)

When the trade does happen I will be bittersweet, Dozier is an awesome player and one of the very few bright spots on this club. However, at the end of the day I want a team that can compete for championships, DeLeon+Alavrez+a lottery ticket type (Liriano 2.0!?!?) could go a long ways to help achieve this.

Just like Nathan+Liriano+Boof helped us in the past.

DaveW - I too really appreciate you bringing this to us!  Obviously you have a source, beat MLB Trade Rumors, Bleacher Report, Etc. to the news and it was cool to be in the loop!  Do you consider it to be imminent now or is there still some serious haggling to do?  It's close to a deal though isn't it?

[AlwaysinModeration]

Why don't they just take Deleon, Alverez and Stewart (who they have at least asked about) and call it a day. That is two MLB ready pitchers and Alverez who is a ways off. Works for me.

As others have said, Dave's been consistent that Stewart is considerably too much for the third piece. As is Lux, and as is Buehler. That the Dodgers are afraid of giving a third player who will "burn them" later on.

 

This does seem to open a negotiating tactic, though. How about Falvey drop the demand for Alvarez and instead take back Buehler, Stewart and Lux?

 

Dodgers keep their two best prospects in Bellinger and Alvarez (and that $32mm investment), and the Twins get four excellent prospects, headlined by the player everyone seems to agree upon, De Leon?

[DaveW]

 

DaveW - I too really appreciate you bringing this to us!  Obviously you have a source, beat MLB Trade Rumors, Bleacher Report, Etc. to the news and it was cool to be in the loop!  Do you consider it to be imminent now or is there still some serious haggling to do?  It's close to a deal though isn't it?

Thanks!

Re: timeline, I'm not going to make any more declarations in timing LOL! My source continues to tell me it's close/going to happen at any moment.

Again they have come 95% of the way on the trade at this point, they settled on the three main pieces (Dozier, DeLeon, Alvarez) it's just about that little last piece.

It's taking longer then usual because:

-There are no legit other destinations at this point.
-Dozier isn't demanding a trade
-It's a slow time for the HOT STOVE now anyways, most orgs go on christmas break more or less later this week until right after New Years.