DaveW: Dodgers trade for Dozier to be completed within the next 24 hours

[EephusKnuckler]

If they move Dozier, think they'll go and sign a big bat for DH? Falvey pointed out the obvious that it would be tough to replace Doz's power but there are guys like Bautista and Encarnacion out there. I think they would have to give up a pick to sign one of those but there are others available like Trumbo.

[Obsvr]

 

If they move Dozier, think they'll go and sign a big bat for DH? Falvey pointed out the obvious that it would be tough to replace Doz's power but there are guys like Bautista and Encarnacion out there. I think they would have to give up a pick to sign one of those but there are others available like Trumbo.

no.

 

Zero chance they do that.  

[USAFChief]

Just curious, but where are the "holes all over the team" not counting pitching? I see many young guys who have yet to play full seasons at their positions, but I do not see "holes" per se, and certainly not all over.

Not to mention, if there are "holes all over" then the "rebuild" is already a failure and there's no reason to think a WS is possible anyway.

 

Buxton either is, or isn't a savior. Sano is up. Polanco. Berrios. Kepler, Chargois, etc etc. If those players can't form the nucleus of contention in 2017, 2018 at the latest, when will they?

 

I can see the argument to trade Dozier, but if that's the one and only plan from new management, they're already failures. Find some pitching. It doesn't have to come from trading Dozier. How are other teams adding this winter?

[darin617]

 

Just curious, but where are the "holes all over the team" not counting pitching? I see many young guys who have yet to play full seasons at their positions, but I do not see "holes" per se, and certainly not all over.

 

The defense is one of the biggest holes on the team. Hopefully Sano can quit rushing some of his throws for starters.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Not one person here, nor the "experts" for that matter, can predict with any degree of accuracy what the 2017 season will look like. Much less what any specific player will do. And you think you can predict what a current minor leaguer will be five years from now?

So I'm skeptical that it makes much sense for a major league team to operate under the premise that adding 2 or 3 specific minor leaguers in December 2016 makes the 2021 World Series more likely by any significant amount.

The most likely result of that trade would be to make the 2017 Twins worse while having little to no effect on the 2021 team. That's the nature of iffy minor league players...and make no mistake, EVERY rumored return is still in the "iffy" category.

So I think you have to have a good chance for immediate benefit, and DeLeon is a start on that, or you keep Dozier and the Dodgers can just go blank themselves.

 

Here's what I know - keeping Dozier gives us a 0.0001% chance of winning the world series.  He'll be gone in two years and our pitching will still stink.  We will not be winning a world series in the next two years by hanging on to what we have and magically expecting to get better.

 

If I'm running a baseball organization, I'm playing the percentages.  I'm going to turn one peak asset into several.  What you advocate is ramming our head into a brick wall expecting that eventually the brick wall will soften and let you through.

 

I'm going around the wall.  Maybe my path doesn't get me around but I know for a fact that yours is not only not going to work, it's going to hurt a helluva lot worse too.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

The defense is one of the biggest holes on the team. Hopefully Sano can quit rushing some of his throws for starters.

Fair enough about Sano, but "hole" to me means an absence of talent.

 

I would call them question marks, watching to see what Sano does, or watching if Buxton stays healthy and consistent for a full season, or seeing what Kepler can do. Those guys have a ton of talent and I wouldn't say those positions are holes. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

Here's what I know - keeping Dozier gives us a 0.0001% chance of winning the world series.  He'll be gone in two years and our pitching will still stink.  We will not be winning a world series in the next two years by hanging on to what we have and magically expecting to get better.

 

If I'm running a baseball organization, I'm playing the percentages.  

Why play percentages, when you already know what happens in the future?

[TheLeviathan]

 

Why play percentages, when you already know what happens in the future?

 

I'm not sure I'm really predicting the future by looking at this group of pitchers and saying "not going to cut it"

 

So, we'll have to get reinforcements and that will require trading given the options available.  

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

I'm not sure I'm really predicting the future by looking at this group of pitchers and saying "not going to cut it"

 

So, we'll have to get reinforcements and that will require trading given the options available.  

I don't disagree. Falvey is not inheriting a rosy situation. However, the team right now today is in better shape than it was Opening Day 2016, including the pitching.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I don't disagree. Falvey is not inheriting a rosy situation. However, the team right now today is in better shape than it was Opening Day 2016, including the pitching.

 

We've added a catcher.  I agree it's "better", but we lost over 100 games.  We're going to have to get a lot more than better and it's primarily going to have to come from pitching improvements. 

 

Keeping Dozier is a high risk of a losing asset value and pretty much a sure-fire way to keep our wheels spinning.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

We've added a catcher.  I agree it's "better", but we lost over 100 games.  We're going to have to get a lot more than better and it's primarily going to have to come from pitching improvements. 

 

Keeping Dozier is a high risk of a losing asset value and pretty much a sure-fire way to keep our wheels spinning.

It was a 100-loss team, but it was a perfect storm of wrong decisions--that's another discussion.

 

I disagree that Dozier is at high risk of tanking but do agree, there is some risk.

 

I also disagree with your assumption that the Twins are destined to continue losing if they don't trade Dozier. To flip it around, that must mean that the Twins are sure to start winning if they *do* trade Dozier? For DeLeon? So forget Buxton, Sano, Berrios, it's DeLeon who will ultimately make the difference. I'm not sure this is being properly thought through.

 

In any case, there is still plenty of time, as you have said yourself. We might eventually accept whatever offer is on the table right now. Nothing wrong with that, either.

[TheLeviathan]

The implication that we are sure to start winning if we trade him is false.  It's not sure.

 

It's just got MUCH better odds.  As in, decent odds (if we target the right players) compared to no shot in hell.  

 

We simply will not get better keeping what we have and hoping.  And since we have to trade to get better, there is no asset screaming "Deal me!" any louder.  Plus, he doesn't have to "tank" to lose value.  He just has to not have a career year.  Which, pretty much by definition, is going to happen.  

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Falvey and Levine strike me as guys who are doing more than "hoping." Seems like they have some sharp ideas, and they've already shuffled the player deck somewhat (Castro, Suzuki, Plouffe) for the better, in my opinion. If they hold on to Dozier, I will give them the benefit of the doubt.

[ScrapTheNickname]

 

I don't think Stewart is much better than Santiago.  He's a #5 type.

Gauging from Stewart's minor league stats he seems like a #2 to me.

 

K to BB rate of 9.7 / 2.1 over 256 innings. WHIP of 1.115.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Falvey and Levine strike me as guys who are doing more than "hoping." Seems like they have some sharp ideas, and they've already shuffled the player deck somewhat (Castro, Suzuki, Plouffe) for the better, in my opinion. If they hold on to Dozier, I will give them the benefit of the doubt.

 

I will too, but I hope it's for the right reasons.  "We weren't offered enough" - fine.  "We were offered plenty, but 2017 would've been hurt by the move" - I'm getting my pitch fork pretty early into this regime.  (Which is what I was originally saying)

[gunnarthor]

Aside from Dave's source, doesn't really seem like talks are progressing much.

 

[gunnarthor]

 

Gauging from Stewart's minor league stats he seems like a #2 to me.

 

K to BB rate of 9.7 / 2.1 over 256 innings. WHIP of 1.115.

Don't scout stat lines. 

 

BA wrote about him: Stewart is a workhorse, back-end type who will eat innings and has great makeup. He should fit in well in a veteran, high-priced clubhouse.
 

fangraphs said: Stewart projects as a solid No. 4 or 5 starter and could comfortably be a major-league average No. 4 if he finds a more consistent way to deal with right-handed hitters.

 

Now there isn't anything inherently wrong with a back end starter but we can get those guys elsewhere without trading Dozier.

[Obsvr]

 

 

 

I also disagree with your assumption that the Twins are destined to continue losing if they don't trade Dozier. To flip it around, that must mean that the Twins are sure to start winning if they *do* trade Dozier? For DeLeon? So forget Buxton, Sano, Berrios, it's DeLeon who will ultimately make the difference. I'm not sure this is being properly thought through.

 

 

 

The Twins are destined to continue losing if they don't fix their pitching staff and to a lesser extent their defense.  

 

If you can move your biggest offensive "asset" to address a woeful area of deficit, then you should do that.  The fact is, you can't predict the future with prospects, so if you get three or four, you hope one of them pans out.  If 2, 3, or 4 of them pan out a la the AJ Pierzynsky trade, then all the better.  

 

Are they guaranteed to start winning? Of course not.  But for this organization, the more young, high ceiling arms that you can stockpile, the better chance you give yourself at turning it around.

[Monkeypaws]

 

I don't disagree. Falvey is not inheriting a rosy situation. However, the team right now today is in better shape than it was Opening Day 2016, including the pitching.

 

He is if you are an armchair GM:

 

•Tremendous trade chip in Dozier

•#1 pick in Rule 5 draft

•#1 pick in amateur draft.

•3 of the top 37 picks in said draft.

•Core of former top prospects in Buxton, Sano, Berrios, even Kepler, all who have shown great promise.

 

He's been given a chance to make an impact out of the gates, and has some young guns to work with.

[Major League Ready]

 

Just curious, but where are the "holes all over the team" not counting pitching? I see many young guys who have yet to play full seasons at their positions, but I do not see "holes" per se, and certainly not all over.

I agree in that context but I don’t agree with the context.  All those young guys are question marks.  I am considering them a hole until they are filled by someone we can count on long-term   Perhaps that’s a little harsh.  Maybe the better way to look at this is the state of the team overall given the context of my comments were that winning a few more games in 2017 should not take precedent over acquiring the talent we need to field a team that can go deep in the playoffs.

 

SP-Terrible

 

Bullpen – Good young arms but certainly not proven.  Therefore, there are question marks.

How about the critical positions “up the middle”.  SS is weak / Catcher – mediocre / 2B likely filled by Polanco who has great potential but far from proven.  If its Dozier, we have him for 2 years and he will never contribute to a playoff contender.  Buxton – Could be a superstar but the jury is out on him too.

 

How about the corner positions.  Kepler looks like he has great potential but he is far from proven.  Will Rosario ever develop adequate plate disciple or will someone else occupy the other corner OF spot?  Will Sano stick at 3B.  Mauer is adequate at 1B but he too will never contribute to a contender.

So, maybe we should not call it holes.  That’s not significant to the original statement which was that no front office would be thinking short-term with a team that requires this much development or that has this much uncertainty.

[Platoon]

This team has some of the parts necessary to be pretty decent in a couple years. Those parts currently don't include high end SP. they do have some arms in the minors that could make the BP very good in two years also. The other missing piece is a defensive SS. I haven't really seen another viable path to acquiring SP other than a Dozier trade. Trading Santana is actually a subtraction, and I would hope no one would advocate trading one of our better youth. Sano, Buxton, Berrios, Kepler, Polanco etc. Trading Dozier seems the only path forward, as it puts the team hopefully in the right direction on MI defense, and gets us the best arms possible in this time frame. Keeping him, with his well documented streaks is like going to the casino with your retirement money. If the new brain trust thinks they are holding a pat hand, and overplay it, they will end up far more reminiscent of Bill Smith, than Theo Epstein! I wouldn't feel this way if the Twins were a contender this year. But until they solve the rotation, that won't be a discussion we will be having in the near future. Or ever!

[The Wise One]

 

I'll call your Jagr and raise you a Knoblauch & Koufax (&95% of the other players that downtrend after 30). Power does age just as fast as speed. It just shows up in other metrics (bat speed, swinging strike zone, etc). Guys who find huge power surges at 29, like Jose Bautista are the exception, not the rule. The Twins have some tradable assets, and yes, the value should not be wasted, but one cannot reasonably expect to get 24krt prices for 14krt gold. Yadier Alvarez in a trade would be a price I can't see the Dodger FO making with the Twins unless for example there were Twins pieces that could be sent to the Rays for Archer (with other premium Dodger pieces) as part of a 3-way.

Yup, every player is going to age, skills diminish. At what point is individual differences.  At what level a currently 29 year old player will decline has many factors.  Teams pick up veterans for short term. There is no reason to think Dozier will decline in the near future. Considering what the Red Sox gave up for Sale, the Twins would not get enough in trade for Dozier to get Archer without giving up Sano.

[Dman]

Well, Dozier isn't worth what Eaton is and I think people who believe the Eaton trade was a big overpay by the Bats under-estimate Eaton (and his contract, and his years of control) by quite a bit and over-estimate Giolito (who the Nats, a pitch happy organization, seemed to be offering for everyone).  I don't think it was an overpay, but if it was, it was slight.  I, personally, think it was the right price and I doubt the Nats regret it considering they likely see their window as the next two years (Harper becomes a FA in two years). 

 

http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/211512410/adam-eaton-trade-defending-nationals-rizzo

 

http://www.espn.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/77004/odds-are-selling-the-farm-is-worth-the-risk

 

And if Dozier isn't traded this offseason, it'll be a failure.  Doesn't need to be to the Dodgers (though it's a perfect trade fit), but the Dodgers will go get someone competent no matter what.  Might not be Dozier, but they'll get someone competent if they can't get Dozier.  

 

Premium trade deadline price is for quality pitchers and high leverage relievers when making a run for the playoffs. Its not to get 2 months of a position player to put them over the edge for a playoff run.

Nice reply you always have well reasoned arguments.

 

It is always hard to know how trades are going to play out. Giolito was the number two prospect in baseball with the other guys added in felt like an overpay to me. A lot of other fans felt that way too. Sure anything can happen. Giolito can bust and Eaton can break his leg or be severely injured and never play again.

 

As for position players at the deadline lots of them get traded. Maybe not as many as pitchers or for the returns that teams get for pitchers but position players get traded at the deadline every year.

[jimmer]

 

Nice reply you always have well reasoned arguments.

 

Thanks man, I try to make a logical case when I can.

 

As far as position players getting traded at the deadline, they do no doubt.  I just don't remember anyone paying any premium prices for that position player.  We could trade him at the deadline, but I doubt it'd be for as much as we'd get now.

 

You've got teams scrambling for starting and relief pitching because they find themselves in the hunt (at times unexpectedly).  Then they go for that pitcher to try and push for the playoffs or set up for the playoffs.

[DaveW]

Aside from Dave's source, doesn't really seem like talks are progressing much.

 

https://twitter.com/DWolfsonKSTP/status/810236274753859584

Again these are from his TWINS sources who are spinning it how they want it spun.

 

My source and reporting of the source has had involed no spin, bc I don't have to worry about some business/professional relationship with either team.

[Cory Engelhardt]

So when will this get done? Anyone want to bet on the date and time?

[HitInAPinch]

 

Again these are from his TWINS sources who are spinning it how they want it spun.

My source and reporting of the source has had involed no spin, bc I don't have to worry about some business/professional relationship with either team.

Agree.  We've seen the same info on the trade status quoted directly from Falvey.  The guy who's fingerprints are on the trade talks.  

 

[HitInAPinch]

If we were to get De Leon and Alvarez for Dozier, I'd be a little disappointed.  But not hideously upset.  Getting a couple young starters to work into the MLB this season is the biggest thing to me.  2nd is better defense. 

 

IMO:  the OF defense is about a good as we can get, without sacrificing offense. With 2/3erds of it having a fraction of a season in MLB ballparks, I'd think it safe to say improvement is very possible.

 

In the INF, I think some stability would really help.  Plant Polanco at ONE position.  If the overall offense develops like we think, I'd try Vielma for better defense at SS.  Or rent Mario Mendoza, if he's still around   

[HitInAPinch]

 

 

So when will this get done? Anyone want to bet on the date and time?

Maybe before Spring Training.  Maybe....

[Linus]

If we were to get De Leon and Alvarez for Dozier, I'd be a little disappointed. But not hideously upset. Getting a couple young starters to work into the MLB this season is the biggest thing to me. 2nd is better defense.

 

IMO: the OF defense is about a good as we can get, without sacrificing offense. With 2/3erds of it having a fraction of a season in MLB ballparks, I'd think it safe to say improvement is very possible.

 

In the INF, I think some stability would really help. Plant Polanco at ONE position. If the overall offense develops like we think, I'd try Vielma for better defense at SS. Or rent Mario Mendoza, if he's still around

If we can get DeLeon and Alvarez and don't take it I will be upset.