DaveW: Dodgers trade for Dozier to be completed within the next 24 hours

[mudcat14]

De Leon may prove to be a stud.  But the bottom line is that in his three full seasons of professional ball, he's thrown 77, 114 & 103 innings.  Last year was shortened due to 'shoulder inflammation.'  That's a huge red flag for me.  The Twins would be fools not to demand at least one other high upside type in return.   

[DaveW]

 

We have tons of information and speculation, and yet, we also don't have a lot of concrete information. Is it possible...I'm asking...that it's the Twins who are holding this thing up? That maybe the Dodgers are offering both JDL and Alvarez and the Twins are just asking too much for the 3rd spot?

 

Not saying they shouldn't go for the gold here! Dozier is a high quality commodity and I couldn't and wouldn't blame the Twins for going for all they can get. But lately I've been reading he's not really worth this or worth that, etc, and the Dodgers aren't offering enough. I'm just wondering if the Twins are the ones holding up the trade here.

 

Thoughts?

I can confirm the Twins 100% are the one's "holding it up"

But that's not nesc a bad thing, not at all. If it was the trade deadline and it passed...well that would be a different story.

[DaveW]

 

De Leon may prove to be a stud.  But the bottom line is that in his three full seasons of professional ball, he's thrown 77, 114 & 103 innings.  Last year was shortened due to 'shoulder inflammation.'  That's a huge red flag for me.  The Twins would be fools not to demand at least one other high upside type in return.   

Yeah, I think the Twins realize this as well. DeLeon alone isn't near enough to get Dozier. What if Dozier continues what he did last year? That would be such an insanely terribly lopsided trade for the Twins!

This is why they asked for Alvarez as well (which the Dodgers are fine with)

Now its the matter of them wanting more, which I think they deserve.

[doscinco]

Long time lurker of this thread and a Dodger fan, I know this is late, but I don't see how Yadier Alvarez is involved. Freidman has been very protective of the elite high talent like Seager, Urias, Joc, and now Bellinger and Alvarez. I'm pretty sure the Twins can have whoever they want after those two (Walker Buehler might be the hold cause he's bordering on elite within the org.)

 

I also could see one of the two sides walking away. The Twins don't have to trade Dozier and the projection systems already have the Dodgers as a mid 90s team, w/o a 2B. I mean, I know there isn't a deadline but how much can you talk without a deal getting done?

[Willihammer]

 

I can confirm the Twins 100% are the one's "holding it up"

Good. 

[gunnarthor]

 

Long time lurker of this thread and a Dodger fan, I know this is late, but I don't see how Yadier Alvarez is involved. Freidman has been very protective of the elite high talent like Seager, Urias, Joc, and now Bellinger and Alvarez. I'm pretty sure the Twins can have whoever they want after those two (Walker Buehler might be the hold cause he's bordering on elite within the org.)

I also could see one of the two sides walking away. The Twins don't have to trade Dozier and the projection systems already have the Dodgers as a mid 90s team, w/o a 2B. I mean, I know there isn't a deadline but how much can you talk without a deal getting done?

Well there is some disagreement about how realistic Dave's sources are but he is right that De Leon has a lot of warts for a centerpiece - Injury history being the main one but also durability and ceiling. 

 

Dodgers have a deep enough system that the Twins should be able to get a nice return but we'll see what happens.  As for walking away, yeah about 10 pages or so ago I was of the opinion that a trade won't get done.  It's nice to see Heyman reporting on it so that makes it probably more likely than not to happen but I don't think Levine is going to trade away the Twins main chip without a strong return. So, I guess that's a long winded way of saying we'll see.

[Willihammer]

My god. Cory Seager Joc Pederson, Clayton Kershaw, Kenley Jansen, Yasiel Puig, this is what a team that has already won the prospect lottery looks like. 

 

I don't know how many times he will have to fall short in the playoffs, but at some point Friedman will come to Jesus when it comes to the price of going over the top. Either that or lose his job. Its the natural order of things.

[doscinco]

Well there is some disagreement about how realistic Dave's sources are but he is right that De Leon has a lot of warts for a centerpiece - Injury history being the main one but also durability and ceiling.

 

Dodgers have a deep enough system that the Twins should be able to get a nice return but we'll see what happens. As for walking away, yeah about 10 pages or so ago I was of the opinion that a trade won't get done. It's nice to see Heyman reporting on it so that makes it probably more likely than not to happen but I don't think Levine is going to trade away the Twins main chip without a strong return. So, I guess that's a long winded way of saying we'll see.

This is why I don't see him moving. There isn't much interest because most of the contending teams have a 2B. The is probably why the Dodgers haven't blown them away with an offer and why the Twins hold the ultimate trump card by simply holding on to him. Buyers are more desperate at the deadline.

[Cory Engelhardt]

This is why I don't see him moving. There isn't much interest because most of the contending teams have a 2B. The is probably why the Dodgers haven't blown them away with an offer and why the Twins hold the ultimate trump card by simply holding on to him. Buyers are more desperate at the deadline.

I hope you are wrong. If he is still on the roster in spring training, I will be disappointed

[DodgerFan1234]

This is why I don't see him moving. There isn't much interest because most of the contending teams have a 2B. The is probably why the Dodgers haven't blown them away with an offer and why the Twins hold the ultimate trump card by simply holding on to him. Buyers are more desperate at the deadline.

This has nothing to do with you. I just hate when Rosenthal/Heyman/others use that line of thinking.

During the offseason, when no market forms, it's always:

Dozier (or any player) can be held until the deadline when teams get desperate.

At the deadline, when no market forms, it's always:

Dozier (or any player) can be held until the offseason when 29 teams can bid for his services.

 

It's a scam to increase viewership. The reality is that a market forms when a market forms. The fit between the Dodgers and Twins seems natural on the surface but the longer this drags on, the more I feel like Friedman is using the Twins as the fluffer (watch Unfinished Business if you don't understand). As a Dodger fan, I have no problem with this. If Colletti were still the GM I could see that fool sending JDL, Alvarez, and Urias. Fortunately Friedman isn't Colletti.

[jimmer]

 

This has nothing to do with you. I just hate when Rosenthal/Heyman/others use that line of thinking.
During the offseason, when no market forms, it's always:
Dozier (or any player) can be held until the deadline when teams get desperate.
At the deadline, when no market forms, it's always:
Dozier (or any player) can be held until the offseason when 29 teams can bid for his services.

It's a scam to increase viewership. The reality is that a market forms when a market forms. The fit between the Dodgers and Twins seems natural on the surface but the longer this drags on, the more I feel like Friedman is using the Twins as the fluffer (watch Unfinished Business if you don't understand). As a Dodger fan, I have no problem with this. If Colletti were still the GM I could see that fool sending JDL, Alvarez, and Urias. Fortunately Friedman isn't Colletti.

Jeff Sullivan said it right today, premium trade value at trade deadline is for pitchers not position players. Dozier is only getting paid 6M this year.  The more time a team has him at this price the more value he has.  If we have Dozier when the season starts, it hurts us.

[DodgerFan1234]

Jeff Sullivan said it right today, premium trade value at trade deadline is for pitchers not position players. Dozier is only getting paid 6M this year.  The more time a team has him at this price the more value he has.  If we have Dozier when the season starts, it hurts us.

This is 100% accurate. Just to expand on the is point, The Twins do have leverage in this situation but the amount of leverage is finite and likely vastly overstated on this board by some. Both FO's are likely smart enough to understand that. Right now the Twins have a guy who is a plus defender that just got done hitting 42 home runs in likely a career year. That is leverage against a team that needs to fill a gaping 2nd base hole. But if the Dodgers plug that hole with Forsythe or Kinsler or Solarte, or Hwang, or somebody else and Dozier has a bad 1st half (his 2nd 1/2 2015), wrong side of 30 and less than 2 years of control, The Twins would be lucky to get just the alleged 3rd/4th piece being contemplated. That is finite leverage and that's why somebody like Alvarez isn't (never was) on the table.

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

This is 100% accurate. Just to expand on the is point, The Twins do have leverage in this situation but the amount of leverage is finite and likely vastly overstated on this board by some. Both FO's are likely smart enough to understand that. Right now the Twins have a guy who is a plus defender that just got done hitting 42 home runs in likely a career year. That is leverage against a team that needs to fill a gaping 2nd base hole. But if the Dodgers plug that hole with Forsythe or Kinsler or Solarte, or Hwang, or somebody else and Dozier has a bad 1st half (his 2nd 1/2 2015), wrong side of 30 and less than 2 years of control, The Twins would be lucky to get just the alleged 3rd/4th piece being contemplated. That is finite leverage and that's why somebody like Alvarez isn't (never was) on the table.

 

I agree. The Twins leverage is finite.

 

However, the Dodgers have an excellent team with really only one missing link, second base. Dozier has been stronger each of the past several seasons. There is no certainty to the the idea that this was his career year.

 

If Dozier winds up on the Dodgers team I will expect him to contribute mightily to a Dodgers post-season run. I really hope it goes that way.

 

And I hope our front office doesn't get too greedy to make this happen.

[The Wise One]

Did the alleged source say what was being offered? If so, did it resemble a bunch of low upside prospects.  The few tradeable assets the Twins have should not be wasted on getting a pile of low ceiling prospects. Their system already has those. Rightfully, the Twins ought to be holding up the deal. Quality for quality. 

 

For the people saying that being over 30 is a negative, Jaromir Jagr says hello.  For those that bother to look, the aging curve is not a line but a swath.  Power does not age as quickly as speed. Nobody ever accused Dozier of being a speedburner

[DodgerFan1234]

Did the alleged source say what was being offered? If so, did it resemble a bunch of low upside prospects. The few tradeable assets the Twins have should not be wasted on getting a pile of low ceiling prospects. Their system already has those. Rightfully, the Twins ought to be holding up the deal. Quality for quality.

 

For the people saying that being over 30 is a negative, Jaromir Jagr says hello. For those that bother to look, the aging curve is not a line but a swath. Power does not age as quickly as speed. Nobody ever accused Dozier of being a speedburner

I'll call your Jagr and raise you a Knoblauch & Koufax (&95% of the other players that downtrend after 30). Power does age just as fast as speed. It just shows up in other metrics (bat speed, swinging strike zone, etc). Guys who find huge power surges at 29, like Jose Bautista are the exception, not the rule. The Twins have some tradable assets, and yes, the value should not be wasted, but one cannot reasonably expect to get 24krt prices for 14krt gold. Yadier Alvarez in a trade would be a price I can't see the Dodger FO making with the Twins unless for example there were Twins pieces that could be sent to the Rays for Archer (with other premium Dodger pieces) as part of a 3-way.

[WiesbadenDAN]

I was going to wait until page 100 to post but I have no patience.  In fact I have already opened or found out all of my presents this year!  I just wanted to say that I am really happy this was not a quick trigger trade.  The new management team has to build a reputation for future negotiations and some of those will be without as much leverage as they have in this trade.  This is a fantastic way to build a rep as "tough negotiators". Come strong or go away!

[Dman]

I think the Twins are in a bit of a tough spot with a Dozier trade.  I think the Trade needs to come close too matching what the White Sox got for Eaton.  In other words they feel they need an over pay to make a deal.  Dozier is really their only trade chip they can't afford to screw it up.  I don't see Friedman being ready to overpay.  He likely has a fair deal out there but I don't think fair will get this done.  

 

At this point each side has to know what the other side wants so unless someone is willing to move the bar I don't this happening right now.  Trade deadline could be a better time to trade as some team(s) will have an injured second baseman and need help.  If Dozier tanks or gets injured it could backfire so there is risk there.  

 

The front office needs to come out looking good if they make a trade so it seems to me it will take a lot to get them to trade Dozier.

[USAFChief]

This is 100% accurate. Just to expand on the is point, The Twins do have leverage in this situation but the amount of leverage is finite and likely vastly overstated on this board by some. Both FO's are likely smart enough to understand that. Right now the Twins have a guy who is a plus defender that just got done hitting 42 home runs in likely a career year. That is leverage against a team that needs to fill a gaping 2nd base hole. But if the Dodgers plug that hole with Forsythe or Kinsler or Solarte, or Hwang, or somebody else and Dozier has a bad 1st half (his 2nd 1/2 2015), wrong side of 30 and less than 2 years of control, The Twins would be lucky to get just the alleged 3rd/4th piece being contemplated. That is finite leverage and that's why somebody like Alvarez isn't (never was) on the table.

How about if next July Dozier has a .900 OPS, and the Dodgers have a giant sucking hole at second base. They are below .500 against LH pitching and trail the Giants by 3 games in the NLW?

 

The Dodgers will give the Twins the keys to Hollywood.

 

Leverage is fluid, and can flow both ways.

[jimmer]

 

I think the Twins are in a bit of a tough spot with a Dozier trade.  I think the Trade needs to come close too matching what the White Sox got for Eaton.  In other words they feel they need an over pay to make a deal.  Dozier is really their only trade chip they can't afford to screw it up.  I don't see Friedman being ready to overpay.  He likely has a fair deal out there but I don't think fair will get this done.  

 

 

Well, Dozier isn't worth what Eaton is and I think people who believe the Eaton trade was a big overpay by the Bats under-estimate Eaton (and his contract, and his years of control) by quite a bit and over-estimate Giolito (who the Nats, a pitch happy organization, seemed to be offering for everyone).  I don't think it was an overpay, but if it was, it was slight.  I, personally, think it was the right price and I doubt the Nats regret it considering they likely see their window as the next two years (Harper becomes a FA in two years). 

 

http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/211512410/adam-eaton-trade-defending-nationals-rizzo

 

http://www.espn.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/77004/odds-are-selling-the-farm-is-worth-the-risk

 

And if Dozier isn't traded this offseason, it'll be a failure.  Doesn't need to be to the Dodgers (though it's a perfect trade fit), but the Dodgers will go get someone competent no matter what.  Might not be Dozier, but they'll get someone competent if they can't get Dozier.  

 

Premium trade deadline price is for quality pitchers and high leverage relievers when making a run for the playoffs. Its not to get 2 months of a position player to put them over the edge for a playoff run.

[Mr. Brooks]

How about if next July Dozier has a .900 OPS, and the Dodgers have a giant sucking hole at second base. They are below .500 against LH pitching and trail the Giants by 3 games in the NLW?

 

The Dodgers will give the Twins the keys to Hollywood.

 

Leverage is fluid, and can flow both ways.

That is possible, but dependent on a lot of ifs.

[Cory Engelhardt]

That is possible, but dependent on a lot of ifs.

Yeah, Dozier could have a sub 500 ops in July too, if he hits anything like 2nd half 2014 and first half 2015

[jimmer]

 

Yeah, Dozier could have a sub 500 ops in July too, if he hits anything like 2nd half 2014 and first half 2015

He also could do what he's projected to do and run about a 3 WAR this coming year as opposed to a almost 6 WAR like this season (I'd protect around a 4 WAR, myself).  The best time to trade Santana and Dozier is before the season starts.

[brvama]

I think the Twins are in a bit of a tough spot with a Dozier trade.  I think the Trade needs to come close too matching what the White Sox got for Eaton.  In other words they feel they need an over pay to make a deal.  Dozier is really their only trade chip they can't afford to screw it up.  I don't see Friedman being ready to overpay.  He likely has a fair deal out there but I don't think fair will get this done.  

 

At this point each side has to know what the other side wants so unless someone is willing to move the bar I don't this happening right now.  Trade deadline could be a better time to trade as some team(s) will have an injured second baseman and need help.  If Dozier tanks or gets injured it could backfire so there is risk there.  

 

The front office needs to come out looking good if they make a trade so it seems to me it will take a lot to get them to trade Dozier.

Agree. Also, it has been the Twins position from the getgo that they will need to be impressed with any offers to move Dozier. If there's no trade I'm ok with that. I don't want to see a repeat of the Santana trade. I'm not nearly as well informed on the players as many of the posters here are so I'll defer to the FO. And if they chose to walk away I'll assume they have a plan B.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Agree. Also, it has been the Twins position from the getgo that they will need to be impressed with any offers to move Dozier. If there's no trade I'm ok with that. I don't want to see a repeat of the Santana trade. I'm not nearly as well informed on the players as many of the posters here are so I'll defer to the FO. And if they chose to walk away I'll assume they have a plan B.

Repeating the Santana trade, with better development, would still be more valuable than losing him for nothing in two years, or even more so giving him an extension into his mid 30's

[Linus]

Well, Dozier isn't worth what Eaton is and I think people who believe the Eaton trade was a big overpay by the Bats under-estimate Eaton (and his contract, and his years of control) by quite a bit and over-estimate Giolito (who the Nats, a pitch happy organization, seemed to be offering for everyone). I don't think it was an overpay, but if it was, it was slight. I, personally, think it was the right price and I doubt the Nats regret it considering they likely see their window as the next two years (Harper becomes a FA in two years).

 

http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/211512410/adam-eaton-trade-defending-nationals-rizzo

 

http://www.espn.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/77004/odds-are-selling-the-farm-is-worth-the-risk

 

And if Dozier isn't traded this offseason, it'll be a failure. Doesn't need to be to the Dodgers (though it's a perfect trade fit), but the Dodgers will go get someone competent no matter what. Might not be Dozier, but they'll get someone competent if they can't get Dozier.

 

Premium trade deadline price is for quality pitchers and high leverage relievers when making a run for the playoffs. Its not to get 2 months of a position player to put them over the edge for a playoff run.

All of this is spot on.

[gunnarthor]

 

Agree. Also, it has been the Twins position from the getgo that they will need to be impressed with any offers to move Dozier. If there's no trade I'm ok with that. I don't want to see a repeat of the Santana trade. I'm not nearly as well informed on the players as many of the posters here are so I'll defer to the FO. And if they chose to walk away I'll assume they have a plan B.

Exactly, you don't trade someone out of desperation.  If you don't like the offer, keep him.  I'm not as worried that Dozier will turn into a pumpkin.  He's been an all-star type player for 4 years now, he's unlikely to become a scrub so they can revisit trades in the future.  But by no means accept 50 cents on the dollar.

[Han Joelo]

I feel like there are similarities to the Donaldson to Toronto trade going on here.  I know it's not apples to apples, and I guess the "lottery ticket" the A's got is still developing and could balance the scales.  Still, at one end of the bell curve, Dozier could be an MVP type guy the next couple-three years.  I know I am still largely in the dark ages when it comes to understanding "valuation," but then again I know how much I value Dozier as a fan.

 

At any rate, having a really good veteran like Dozier for the next two years help pave the way for the young guys ascension does have a lot of less quantifiable value, and I think this FO has indicated they understand that.

 

Bottom line, don't trade him for Brett Lawrie.  Or Phil Humber.

[TheLeviathan]

I think the odds of Dozier going pumpkin are pretty high.  Significantly higher than for most players with his current value.  

 

The Twins do have leverage here.  The Dodgers have the farm depth, the glaring need, and the interest.  If they are haggling over a third piece, it's in the Twin's best interest to hold out.  They have at least a month to play chicken with this thing before they have to consider taking whatever might be there.

 

And if more teams are calling, it only increases their leverage.  But if the two main pieces (DeLeon and Alvarez) are agreed, at some point they need to take that this offseason.

[Pardon My Dinger]

How about if next July Dozier has a .900 OPS, and the Dodgers have a giant sucking hole at second base. They are below .500 against LH pitching and trail the Giants by 3 games in the NLW?

 

The Dodgers will give the Twins the keys to Hollywood.

 

Leverage is fluid, and can flow both ways.

Chief, my man, you are far too old to be that not wise.

[twinsfanstreif]

I feel like there are similarities to the Donaldson to Toronto trade going on here. I know it's not apples to apples, and I guess the "lottery ticket" the A's got is still developing and could balance the scales. Still, at one end of the bell curve, Dozier could be an MVP type guy the next couple-three years. I know I am still largely in the dark ages when it comes to understanding "valuation," but then again I know how much I value Dozier as a fan.

 

At any rate, having a really good veteran like Dozier for the next two years help pave the way for the young guys ascension does have a lot of less quantifiable value, and I think this FO has indicated they understand that.

 

Bottom line, don't trade him for Brett Lawrie. Or Phil Humber.

While I agree that he shouldn't be traded for peanuts I feel like now is absolutely the best time to trade him. He just came off a 40 HR season, almost double his previous best. Also up until this past year he had never hit .250 in his career. He will be 30 next season and we could only reasonably expect 3 or so good years out of him IF he can maintain last year's numbers and they aren't a fluke (there's a high chance he will regress). His value as a player is at it's highest right now than it will likely ever be and with how poorly we played last year even with Dozier it's reasonable to assume he is not vaulting us to the playoffs. I don't want to give him away for nothing but we should be lighting up the phones seeing if we can get some elite prospects back for him