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DaveW: Dodgers trade for Dozier to be completed within the next 24 hours

DaveW

By DaveW
in Minnesota Twins Talk

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Bill Tanner College Ball

Bill Tanner

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Posted
Posted

 

Again these are from his TWINS sources who are spinning it how they want it spun.

My source and reporting of the source has had involed no spin, bc I don't have to worry about some business/professional relationship with either team.

I agree that the Twins are responsible for the content of Wolfson's tweet, and that it has to be interpreted as what it is - negotiating through the press.

 

However, I don't think you can conclude that your source hasn't been doing the same with you.  Could be seeding you with information intended for the other party to the negotiation.  I'm not making a judgment about what is actually occurring, but I am saying that you cannot be completely certain the information you are receiving and posting is the ground truth.

 

That said, I have enjoyed your updates and the discussions immensely.  So, thank you.

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Mr. Brooks Cedar Rapids Kernels

Mr. Brooks

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If we were to get De Leon and Alvarez for Dozier, I'd be a little disappointed. But not hideously upset. Getting a couple young starters to work into the MLB this season is the biggest thing to me. 2nd is better defense.

 

IMO: the OF defense is about a good as we can get, without sacrificing offense. With 2/3erds of it having a fraction of a season in MLB ballparks, I'd think it safe to say improvement is very possible.

 

In the INF, I think some stability would really help. Plant Polanco at ONE position. If the overall offense develops like we think, I'd try Vielma for better defense at SS. Or rent Mario Mendoza, if he's still around :)

If we can get DeLeon AND Alvarez, I'll be fist pumping in my living room. I think that is a pretty significant overpay on the Dodgers part, IMO.

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nytwinsfan GCL Twins

nytwinsfan

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Willihammer, on 18 Dec 2016 - 11:11 AM, said:
What is the ETA on Alvarez? 2019 at best?

 

jimmer, on 18 Dec 2016 - 11:13 AM, said:
around the time we might have a team capable of contending (if a lot goes right).

 

If you go back to the Span / Revere trade threads in 2012 you can read the exact same thing about 2014-2015.

Yeah, well, "a lot didn't go right" from 2012 to 2014-15. I don't understand the point of this comment Willihammer. Our team didn't get better from 2012 to 2014-15, so we shouldn't hope/try to make it better by 2019?  Or we should try to compete in 2017 instead of worrying about 2019? Isn't that even less likely to happen than being competitive by 2019? Or is your point we should be trading for prospects that will be ready in 2021 or 2022!?!  Or is your point that we should just be pessimistic generally? I'm not trying to be a jerk, I just genuinely don't understand the point you are trying to make.

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jimmer Wichita Wind Surge

jimmer

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If you go back to the Span / Revere trade threads in 2012 you can read the exact same thing about 2014-2015.

There have also been people on here who have said Ryan is every bit as good as Epstein too.I was never one of those people who believed that Ryan was going to come in to save the day and quickly turn this team, so I can't speak to those comments. Believe me, I've talked a lot about goalposts being moved by people here.

 

I think if you read what you just quoted, I'm not even assuming it will happen in 2019. What I am figuring is it isn't happening in the next couple years, but if things break right and even a handful of the prospects we think will be decent become so, we may be contenders.  So, I am not worried about having every prospect we get back for Dozier contributing to the big club right away.

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Willihammer Cedar Rapids Kernels

Willihammer

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There have also been people on here who have said Ryan is every bit as good as Epstein too.I was never one of those people who believed that Ryan was going to come in to save the day and quickly turn this team, so I can't speak to those comments. Believe me, I've talked a lot about goalposts being moved by people here.

 

I think if you read what you just quoted, I'm not even assuming it will happen in 2019. What I am figuring is it isn't happening in the next couple years, but if things break right and even a handful of the prospects we think will be decent become so, we may be contenders.  So, I am not worried about having every prospect we get back for Dozier contributing to the big club right away.

But they should at least be ready to start taking lumps at the big league level, no? As we know just cracking into the bigs isn't the end of the road for these kids. We are usually talking 2-3 years of figuring out MLB, assuming they can stick in the first place.

 

I would have no interest in Alvarez as anything but a throw in. Certainly doesn't make it some kind of slam dunk offer. The kid has all of 9 starts in A ball.

 

Bellinger, Stewart, maybe Barnes. People on the cusp of taking their lumps in MLB, these should be the targets IMO. I am not expecting immediate contributions but I have no interest in any more half-decade projects ie. Alex Meyer / Trevor May. I would rather keep Dozier til next winter than settle on more deep-minors prospects.

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Dman Ft Myers Mighty Mussels

Dman

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Thanks man, I try to make a logical case when I can.

 

As far as position players getting traded at the deadline, they do no doubt.  I just don't remember anyone paying any premium prices for that position player.  We could trade him at the deadline, but I doubt it'd be for as much as we'd get now.

 

You've got teams scrambling for starting and relief pitching because they find themselves in the hunt (at times unexpectedly).  Then they go for that pitcher to try and push for the playoffs or set up for the playoffs.

Yeah I looked as well. Lucroy was the only player that I could see that maybe got a decent return and catcher is a different animal. I agree with you for the most part and your analysis is usually pretty spot on. Hopefully they get the return they feel they need for Dozier I just think they are likely asking for too much.

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jimmer Wichita Wind Surge

jimmer

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Yeah I looked as well. Lucroy was the only player that I could see that maybe got a decent return and catcher is a different animal. I agree with you for the most part and your analysis is usually pretty spot on. Hopefully they get the return they feel they need for Dozier I just think they are likely asking for too much.

I agree that they are likely asking too much.  Hope they don't overplay their hand, because he'll be worth even less, in regards to trade value, the longer we have him.

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Otto von Ballpark All-Star

Otto von Ballpark

Community Leader
Posted
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But they should at least be ready to start taking lumps at the big league level, no? As we know just cracking into the bigs isn't the end of the road for these kids. We are usually talking 2-3 years of figuring out MLB, assuming they can stick in the first place.

 

I would have no interest in Alvarez as anything but a throw in. Certainly doesn't make it some kind of slam dunk offer. The kid has all of 9 starts in A ball.

 

Bellinger, Stewart, maybe Barnes. People on the cusp of taking their lumps in MLB, these should be the targets IMO. I am not expecting immediate contributions but I have no interest in any more half-decade projects ie. Alex Meyer / Trevor May. I would rather keep Dozier til next winter than settle on more deep-minors prospects.

Meyer actually may have been on track to debut in Minnesota his first season, until the shoulder issues cropped up.

 

I wouldn't say Alvarez's ETA is "2019 at best." I could see him getting significant MLB action in 2018, depending on circumstances of course. (In the unlikely event we became contenders in 2017, I could even see him getting his feet wet as a late season bullpen reinforcement too.)

 

Alvarez was basically the top amateur international prospect last year, and he's had an encouraging pro debut. There is plenty of value in acquiring that, even if he's not immediately MLB ready.

 

The problem with the Meyer trade was that all of our eggs were in one basket. I don't think anyone here is proposing a one-for-one Dozier for Alvarez swap. And I am not sure why you bring up May, he was a buy-low acquisition for a pretty marginal asset in Revere. I'd absolutely do that trade again now with a comparable asset, although again Dozier is a much better asset and hence we are discussing much better returns for him.

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gunnarthor All-Star

gunnarthor

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If you go back to the Span / Revere trade threads in 2012 you can read the exact same thing about 2014-2015.

Well, the Twins were competing in 2015 although Meyer wasn't part of that.  May, to a small extent, I suppose, was.  

 

The Twins already have in place the pieces for a playoff caliber offense.  They need to improve pitching substantially but that doesn't have to be a long turnaround.  Improving the defense a bit, improving the bullpen a bit, some positive regression can all add up. Considering some of the early moves by the FO it doesn't seem like they think we have to wait until year 5 of Sano to be good again.

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ALessKosherScott College Ball

ALessKosherScott

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Alvarez is the kind of pitching prospect who's ETA could be anywhere from next September to never. If he finds a bit more command he's the one thing that's missing in the organization-- a potential top of the rotation starter. Whereas De Leon is more in line with what Berrios is as a prospect.

 

If it's a choice of two, I want Alvarez in there somewhere. Sure he's a little bit Alex Meyer esq. But he's also Liriano-esq.

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Monkeypaws GCL Twins

Monkeypaws

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This thread is reminding me of the great Steve McQueen poker film, The Cincinnati Kid. Bluff? Call? Raise?

 

Good test for our new brain trust.

 

http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Admin/BkFill/Default_image_group/2011/11/29/1322584486939/cincinnati-kid-poker-vict-007.jpg

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jimmer Wichita Wind Surge

jimmer

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Our offense has work to do, it's average at the very best, and the ones creating this offense are also the one playing the horrible defense.  It's why our position players were 25th in the majors in WAR (14th in AL)

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Cory Engelhardt First Round Pick

Cory Engelhardt

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Our offense has work to do, it's average at the very best, and the ones creating this offense are also the one playing the horrible defense.  It's why our position players were 25th in the majors in WAR (14th in AL)

At least the offense has a number of young players who have 1-2 years experience and still have potential to grow

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Cory Engelhardt First Round Pick

Cory Engelhardt

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very true, but I wouldn't assume we have the makings of a top 5 AL offense based on what we've seen.

Maybe, maybe not. But if they can get average to above average defense and even average pitching, that would be an offense which could fight for a playoff spot

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gunnarthor All-Star

gunnarthor

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Maybe, maybe not. But if they can get average to above average defense and even average pitching, that would be an offense which could fight for a playoff spot

Yeah, the defense isn't quite the big deal some make it seem.  Our biggest defensive issues last year were Grossman and Danny Santana.  Now, Molitor could certainly end up using them a lot but ideally he won't.  Sano will probably not be good at third but I think he'll be our only bad defender.  Our problem is, outside of Buxton, I don't think we have many players that can be much better than average.  Which isn't horrible if we see the expected improvements from certain players but we'd like to see something better than that (one of the reasons I agree with Warne about trying to nab Profar).

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