Article: Official Winter Meetings Wednesday Thread

[Seth Stohs]

Crickets...

 

That's the sound coming from Minnesota Twins camp so far at the Winter Meetings in Washington DC. There has been some Brian Dozier talk, though some of that was because he was scheduled to be at the meetings for other reasons. They promoted a couple of guys in the scouting department. They signed Ben Paulsen to a minor league deal.

 

Traditionally, Wednesday is the busiest day at the Winter Meetings. The first few days involve a lot of discussions, and then the GMs (and Chief Baseball Officers) take what they've heard and start to reach agreements, be it with free agents or with other trade partners.While such a quiet Winter Meetings may have been frustrating under the Terry Ryan regime, it is completely understandable under Derek Falvey and Thad Levine. As Nick wrote last night, "The Twins moved quickly on Jason Castro, because doing so was necessary to lock up the coveted catcher, but now there is little need for urgency."

 

They should not feel pushed to rush on a Brian Dozier trade. They are 100% correct in saying that they need to be "inspired" to trade him. They should expect elite, young pitching in return.

 

I agree with their philosophy of taking a broad view of the organization before jumping into too much drastic. That’s why I think they’re wise in keeping a lot of the current front office, shifting some people around, and bringing in new talent when it is available.

 

Likewise, they need to know the ins and outs of their 40-man roster and the entire minor league system. While they certainly had some information on everyone in the organization, they likely have grown their knowledge of their new organization tenfold since taking over.

 

There is talent in the organization. Consider in the last year or two the Twins have called up Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario, Jose Berrios, JT Chargois. Adalberto Mejia was acquired in the Eduardo Nunez deal, and he’s a solid starting pitching prospect who should get more of an opportunity in 2017. Also in the next year or two, we could see players like Mitch Garver, Nick Gordon, Engelb Vielma, Nick Burdi, Jake Reed, Mason Melotakis, Trevor Hildenberger, John Curtiss, Stephen Gonsalves, Kohl Stewart, Felix Jorge, Fernando Romero, Tyler Jay and others.

 

I’m not naive enough to think that they will all pan out. I do know that the more players with the potential of the above names, the more likely that a few of them will pan out and become very good major leaguers and several more will still be able to contribute in a role of some sort. Add to that list a few more prospects with big league potential from a likely Brian Dozier trade, and that’s encouraging.

 

But again, that’s not to say that the Twins should do nothing at all. It’s just important to know that they don’t have to have all of their offseason transactions complete by Thursday.

 

We have heard that the Twins have had discussions regarding Dozier. Yesterday, we learned that they’ve had some discussions regarding Brandon Kintzler. We heard last week that they’ve had some discussions about Kennys Vargas. And, while we haven’t heard it, I would think that some discussions have been had about Hector Santiago.

 

The Winter Meetings are about having those discussions in person. Some deals could be made today or tomorrow, but some discussions with teams or free agents could linger for the next few weeks. And, frankly, there are always still quality players available in January.

 

So, the crickets are chirping, but that isn’t necessarily a bad thing.

 

BRIAN DOZIER UPDATE

 

 

 

TUESDAY RECAP

A few things did happen at the Winter Meetings on Tuesday. Here’s a quick rundown:

• Mike Berardino informed us early in the day on Tuesday that the Twins had re-signed RHP Yorman Landa to a minor league deal. That is almost surprising because why wouldn't they wait until after Thursday's Rule 5 draft to do that. Assuming he's actually signed (and hasn't just agreed to terms) before Thursday morning's Rule 5 draft, he would be eligible to be selected.
• The big news was, without question the Chris Sale trade to the Boston Red Sox. While there were rumors involving the Nationals earlier in the week, it sounds as if the Red Sox made their offer late last week and let the White Sox see if anyone could top it. Well, offering Yoan Moncada (the #1 prospect in baseball), Michael Kopech (a risk, but a guy who throws 100+ and ‘could’ be a starter) and two other prospects would be tough to beat. Making it better for the White Sox, the Red Sox are still on the hook for the $30 million signing bonus they gave Moncada. For the Red Sox, well, they have a rotation of Chris Sale, David Price, Rick Porcello, Steven Wright and Eduardo Rodriguez.
• The White Sox likely aren’t done, and they will likely maintain contact with the Nationals. Jose Quintana is one of the more underrated starting pitchers in baseball, and the Nationals may be a place for him to go. The White Sox will likely also continue shopping 3B Todd Frazier and RP David Robertson.
• The Red Sox were actually quite busy on Tuesday. Earlier in the day, the acquired reliever Tyler Thornburg from the Brewers for three young players including corner infielder Travis Shaw. Thornburg is another strong bullpen arm ready to set up for Craig Kimbrel. Shaw is the guy who beat out Pablo Sandoval as the Red Sox opening day third baseman. Sandoval ended up having surgery. He returned to the Instructional League this fall, and clearly the Red Sox would like him to be their third baseman and this helps open that up for him.
• The Red Sox also signed veteran first baseman Mitch Moreland. Moreland has an OPS over 1.000 in his career at Fenway Park. He also is statistically one of the best first basemen in baseball defensively. Makes me wonder if Hanley Ramirez makes the move to DH at this point.
• After midnight, Bob Nightengale tweeted that the Cubs and Royals have an agreement in place. Wade Davis will go to the World Series champs with OF Jorge Soler heading to the Royals. Davis has just one year left on his contract. Soler is immensely talented, but he’s stuck behind the likes of Ben Zobrist, Kyle Schwarber, Jason Heyward and even Albert Almora in the Cubs talented outfield.
• A couple of former Twins players found 2017 homes on Tuesday. Carlos Gomez re-signed with the Texas Rangers. He agreed to a one year, $11.5 million deal (pending physical, of course).
• Wilson Ramos, who would have made a ton of money if not for his late-season knee injury, agreed to terms with the Tampa Bay Rays on a two year deal with $12.5 million guaranteed and incentives that could push the deal to $18.25 million over those two years. Again, it is pending physical, which, based on how his rehab is going, could be complex. He is likely to miss at least the first half of the 2017 season, so my assumption is that his incentives would be simply based on Games Played or Plate Appearances. If he’s healthy and able to play, he’ll make more money. But the Rays minimize their risk somewhat too.
• Yesterday, we heard that Cleveland was talking to Edwin Encarnacion, probably the best hitter on the market. He’s not a guy I would necessarily want to see in the lineup against the Twins 19 times a season. Tuesday, we learned that they talked to another former Blue Jays hitter as well, Jose Bautista. The thought of him hitting against the Twins 19 games a year, rather than six of seven, is a bit scary.
• Aroldis Chapman allegedly has a $92 million offer on the table. To me, that would likely be a six year deal, right? The Yankees have said they haven’t offered him that. It’s hard to believe that Miami would have offered him that. So, who could have made that offer? Or, is that a case of an agent leaking something, hoping to boost the deals that Chapman has already been offered. He’s going to get paid, for sure. Kenley Jansen is going to make a ton of money too.

Feel free to ask questions, discuss rumors or transactions, and enjoy the day.

 

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[AlwaysinModeration]

To me the biggest news was the fact that the Nats offered Giolito, Robles and Reynaldo Lopez for Chris Sale, and that offer wasn't enough, as the White Sox instead opted for Moncada. If these sorts of packages are being offered, are we positive Urias is untouchable? The general sentiment around these parts is, yeah, he's a non-starter, so don't even bother. But maybe seeing these sorts of prospects offered will alter some thinking about what can be asked for and what is offered.

[mazeville]

 

To me the biggest news was the fact that the Nats offered Giolito, Robles and Reynaldo Lopez for Chris Sale, and that offer wasn't enough, as the White Sox instead opted for Moncada. If these sorts of packages are being offered, are we positive Urias is untouchable? The general sentiment around these parts is, yeah, he's a non-starter, so don't even bother. But maybe seeing these sorts of prospects offered will alter some thinking about what can be asked for and what is offered.

 

I'd still say Urias would be untouchable for someone like Brian Dozier. Chris Sale was something of an exception.

 

But I do believe it shows that teams in the hunt are willing to part with stud prospects for the right player. And Dozier should bring in a nice return.

[Mr. Brooks]

To me the biggest news was the fact that the Nats offered Giolito, Robles and Reynaldo Lopez for Chris Sale, and that offer wasn't enough, as the White Sox instead opted for Moncada. If these sorts of packages are being offered, are we positive Urias is untouchable? The general sentiment around these parts is, yeah, he's a non-starter, so don't even bother. But maybe seeing these sorts of prospects offered will alter some thinking about what can be asked for and what is offered.

The sentiment is that Urias is untouchable for Dozier. You can't really compare the return for Sale to Dozier.

For a player of Sale's caliber, perhaps Urias could be had. Not happening for Dozier though.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Are we certain the Nationals offered Giolito, Robles AND Lopez? I thought I'd heard it was either Giolito OR Lopez, but not both.

 

[tobi0040]

Fair point Mr.Brooks. I do hope that with Sale off the board, teams focus on Dozier.

[KGB]

•Mike Berardino informed us early in the day on Tuesday that the Twins had re-signed RHP Yorman Landa to a minor league deal. That is almost surprising because why wouldn't they wait until after Thursday's Rule 5 draft to do that. Assuming he's actually signed (and hasn't just agreed to terms) before Thursday morning's Rule 5 draft, he would be eligible to be selected.

 

I was confused on why the Twins just dropped Landa from the roster, but I'm liking how they handled this now. If they tried to get him through waiver, any team could have claimed him and kept him by putting him on the 40 man roster. By letting him become a free agent and resigning him after the draft, you can keep him in the organization without exposing him to waiver or the rule 5 draft. Even if he is exposed in the rule 5 draft, the team has to commit a roster spot for the year.

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

Davis to the Cubs? Wow, the champs just keep getting better.

 

Soler to the Royals is interesting. He brings a big bat but doesn't fit their mold of other-worldly OF defense and low K totals. With Cain supposedly being shopped, KC could look vastly different very soon (especially when the Moustakas & Hosmer contracts are up).

 

I see Sano most likely sliding over to 1B (or full-time DH) once Mauer's contract is done. Depending on timing, I think Moustakas could be an interesting FA to consider. The Twins system isn't stacked with 3B, and he'll still be relatively young, LH with some pop, and solid defensively.

[Linus]

I've been saying all along that the Twins should package prospects plus Dozier and go after Urias. Everything has a price....

[roger]

Great report Seth, thanks.

 

At first glance, I agree that the Landa signing could have waited. But was he holding another offer and they were forced to act? If there is someone else interested, now Club X will need to take him in the Rule 5 if they really want him and that could be a problem with a kid who has only pitched at A ball.

 

Back when Farvey was hired, there were rumors his best man would be joining him at the Twins. Has that happened?

[nicksaviking]

Darren Wolfson tweeted (can't post from work) that the Twins are looking at Clayton Richard!

 

Excuse me, that exclamation mark was a typo which occurred trying to clean the vomit off of my keyboard. Maybe they just want him for the pen, but after decades of having issues missing bats it's going to take me a long time to come around on guys like this. I've been conditioned to ruin my keyboard thinking about them.

 

Also, I really hope nobody is fooled by former SD pitchers anymore. I mean the book is out that they nearly all are bad once they leave "America's Finest City".

[zenser]

I am surprised that I have heard nothing about E Santana.  I thought with the poor FA market and the high price of controllable pitching, his name would surface in a rumor or two.

[markos]

 

To me the biggest news was the fact that the Nats offered Giolito, Robles and Reynaldo Lopez for Chris Sale, and that offer wasn't enough, as the White Sox instead opted for Moncada. If these sorts of packages are being offered, are we positive Urias is untouchable? The general sentiment around these parts is, yeah, he's a non-starter, so don't even bother. But maybe seeing these sorts of prospects offered will alter some thinking about what can be asked for and what is offered.

Two thoughts. First, I would argue that Urias is better than any of those four. Second, Moncada, Robles, Lopez and Giolito are all non-essential pieces for their respective teams' 2017 25-man rosters. Baring injury, none of them are being counted on to be a full-time player, and there is a decent chance that all 4 will start 2017 in the minors. Urias, on the other hand, is the Dodgers #3 (arguably #2) starter. Trading him for Dozier is kind of treading water. Yes, the Dodgers improve at 2B, but they now need to find another above-average starter to fill in their rotation.

 

It is the same reason that every report has indicated that Trea Turner, Alex Bregman, Dansby Swanson, etc have been off-limits in trade discussions. Trading an above-average, long-term asset for a slightly better but short-term asset doesn't move the needle very much even in the short term. This reasoning is why I've thought that it will be very hard to pry away a young, controllable starter that is already established in the big leagues, and that it makes some sense to try to package Dozier and Santana together. 

[Lonestar]

I was confused on why the Twins just dropped Landa from the roster, but I'm liking how they handled this now. If they tried to get him through waiver, any team could have claimed him and kept him by putting him on the 40 man roster. By letting him become a free agent and resigning him after the draft, you can keep him in the organization without exposing him to waiver or the rule 5 draft. Even if he is exposed in the rule 5 draft, the team has to commit a roster spot for the year.

Does this mean the Twins made a mistake when they waived ABW?

 

Landa is still subject to the Rule 5 draft.

[beckmt]

Landa was not ready.  If we lose him so be it  He is only one of many relief pitchers in the pipeline and probably not ranked that highly by the new  bosses.

[Vanimal46]

Davis to the Cubs makes a lot of sense. No idea why the Royals are in love with Soler, but good luck to them. 

[beckmt]

 

Davis to the Cubs makes a lot of sense. No idea why the Royals are in love with Soler, but good luck to them. 

Young controllable high upside assets.  Always a risk, but one smaller market teams have to take.  Expect a further teardown of the Royals as most of their players are out of team control after this season.

[markos]

 

Young controllable high upside assets.  Always a risk, but one smaller market teams have to take.  Expect a further teardown of the Royals as most of their players are out of team control after this season.

I really expected them to do the opposite of what they are doing. This is their last year, so go all in. They could blow it up at the deadline if they fell out of contention for some reason. In hindsight (actually, not really...), the signings of Soria and Kennedy last year are really tying their hands this offseason, and now they have to shed salary and try to thread the needle by acquiring win-now assets in return for their current core.

 

I actually thought they would make a decent trade partner for the Dozier+Santana combo trade. I though Ventura, Mondesi + pieces would be a decent return. But instead they are trading away players. 

[nicksaviking]

 

Young controllable high upside assets.  Always a risk, but one smaller market teams have to take.  Expect a further teardown of the Royals as most of their players are out of team control after this season.

 

It's not that Solar is a terrible player, it's that he is a poor defender and doesn't have any speed which has been what KC built their offense around. He's a square peg on a team created to accommodate round holes. The defensively flexible Javier Baez would make a lot more sense to me.

 

Maybe now that they are going into rebuild mode they'll try another strategy. Or maybe Dayton Moore kind of lucked his way into the previous winning formula and perhaps isn't a great GM, which is what most people were saying prior to the 2014 season.

[beckmt]

Was surprised the White Sox took the Bosox offer if that was what the Nationals truly offered.  I would have jumped on the Nats offer if I was selling on Sale.

[beckmt]

I feel what the Twins are seeing now is offers for Doziers of high risk, high upside talent in the A area.  That should not be what the Twins are looking at for the headliner of a Dozier deal.  Guess prices will come up after the meeting and clubs that need a 2nd baseman will figure out what they want.

[beckmt]

Would clear a second 40 man roster spot on the Twins, just in case I see two players on the list for rule 5 that I would want to have.  We have plenty of dead wood on the 40 man.

[Thrylos]

 

Darren Wolfson tweeted (can't post from work) that the Twins are looking at Clayton Richard!

 

Excuse me, that exclamation mark was a typo which occurred trying to clean the vomit off of my keyboard. Maybe they just want him for the pen, but after decades of having issues missing bats it's going to take me a long time to come around on guys like this. I've been conditioned to ruin my keyboard thinking about them.

 

Also, I really hope nobody is fooled by former SD pitchers anymore. I mean the book is out that they nearly all are bad once they leave "America's Finest City".

 

I suspect that they are looking at him as MiLB free agent.  I suspect that the new regime has seen his FIP, K/9 and BB/9 numbers from last season @ SD (4.19, 5.7, 4.0).  He is probably better than Albers    That's what this should be compared to.

Edited December 7, 2016 by Thrylos

[nicksaviking]

 

I suspect that they are looking at him as MiLB free agent.  I suspect that the new regime has seen his FIP, K/9 and BB/9 numbers from last season @ SD (4.19, 5.7, 4.0).  He is probably better than Albers    That's what this should be compared to.

 

That's a positive take on the situation, hope that's the angle. I'd think a veteran in this year's poor free agent pitching market would wait quite a bit longer before accepting a MiLB deal, though it looks like when he signed with the Pirates it was on Dec 3, 2015 which likely was during the winter meetings and that must have been a MiLB deal considering he only pitched in the minors for them.

 

Or perhaps there is a trade off, he'll never get a firm guarantee that he'll start if he gets a MLB deal but it would probably be all but certain if he took a MiLB deal, and he's not ready to slot himself into the pen for the rest of his (likely short) career.

[Vanimal46]

 

It's not that Solar is a terrible player, it's that he is a poor defender and doesn't have any speed which has been what KC built their offense around. He's a square peg on a team created to accommodate round holes. The defensively flexible Javier Baez would make a lot more sense to me.

 

Maybe now that they are going into rebuild mode they'll try another strategy. Or maybe Dayton Moore kind of lucked his way into the previous winning formula and perhaps isn't a great GM, which is what most people were saying prior to the 2014 season.

That and Soler has been hurt quite a bit throughout his career. He would get hot for a bit, hit a few HRs, then land on the DL. 

Knowing how they've built their team the last couple of years, I'm surprised they felt Soler was their guy. Someone with more defensive flexibility like Almora makes more sense for them. 

[Gheggs08]

Really think the Twins should take a flyer on Bucholtz (sp) now that he is more than likely expendable for Boston 

[Vanimal46]

 

Really think the Twins should take a flyer on Bucholtz (sp) now that he is more than likely expendable for Boston 

Drew Pomeranz is also rumored to be expendable for Boston too. Do you like Bucholz more than Pomeranz? 

[markos]

Some Twins-related MLB news:

 

International bonus pools were announced. As part of the new CBA, the pools are a hard cap, and they vary by revenue/market size. Twins are in the second tier at $5.25M for the 2017-2018 signing period. Also worth noting that this money is tradeable.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/2017-18-international-bonus-pools/#cpBZdMJ9KT08JSlF.97

 

Also, they announced that the Twins get an extra Comp Round A pick in the 2017 draft. Not sure exactly where it will fall yet because of pending free agents, but last year they fell in the 37-41 range. It will help with their overall bonus pool and give them another option for moving money around to get multiple high-upside players.

[Baseball Bat]

Odd question, but looking at the numbers and Soler's subpar defense. Why is someone like Jorge Soler valued so much more than an Eddie Rosario?

 

Career Stat Lines:

 

Jorge Soler: .258 / .328 / .762 - 765 PA, 87 Runs, 27 HR, 98 RBI, 211 SO, 35 2B, 2 3B, 4 SB, Career WAR of 1.1

 

Eddie Rosario: .268 / .298 / .735 - 828 PA, 112 Runs, 23 HR, 82 RBI, 209 SO, 35 2B, 17 3B, 16 SB, Career WAR of 3.3

 

Too me, it looks like there career offensive numbers are a wash AT WORST with Soler striking out even more than Rosario in less PA's. I would actually give the advantage to Rosario offensively. Plus his WAR is much higher

 

When it comes to defense, Rosario has proven he is much better and has a gold glove ceiling. 

 

Am I missing something here?

[PseudoSABR]