Article: Dead Of Winter

[Nick Nelson]

Just outside the nation's capitol, the Hot Stove is fired up at baseball's Winter Meetings. The biggest bombshell of the offseason dropped on Tuesday when the White Sox shipped ace Chris Sale to Boston in exchange for Yoan Moncada, arguably the game's best prospect.

 

The Minnesota Twins, however, have yet to take part in the festivities.The biggest Twins-related news to emerge recently has involved organizational housekeeping. Last week James Rowson was announced as the team's new hitting coach, and this week Minnesota shook up the scouting department with a pair of promotions.

 

Outwardly, the front office has not been especially active in its roster construction efforts. There are reports of discussions between the Twins and Dodgers regarding Brian Dozier, but no indications of anything imminent. Minnesota hasn't been meaningfully connected to any free agents of note.

 

This is reflective of the general state of affairs. Right now, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine are still amidst the process of getting their bearings. Hell, they just met Dozier in person for the first time. They are too busy gaining familiarity with the organization they've inherited to be fully focused on meeting with agents or engaging in constant trade talks. The Twins moved quickly on Jason Castro, because doing so was necessary to lock up the coveted catcher, but now there is little need for urgency.

 

The team is wise not to rush a Dozier trade and clearly the knockout offer hasn't yet come. They're also better off waiting out free agency for values now that they've addressed their most blatant need. Plus, they need to plan around one roster spot being occupied by whomever they select in Thursday's Rule 5 draft.

 

In dealing away Sale, the White Sox have apparently committed to a blow-up rebuild, with reports of Jose Quintana, Todd Frazier and Jose Abreu now being on the block. Some will look at this as the path the Twins should have taken, and maybe still should take. After all, the Sox lost 19 fewer games than Minnesota this year, and appeared far closer to contention.

 

By taking a step backward for the moment, they are positioning themselves for a full thrust push in a few years. I don't think the Twins would necessarily be mimicking that approach by trading Dozier – their offense can sustain his loss and they'd likely be getting MLB-ready pitching back. However, if they were to deal Ervin Santana, I believe that would be much more of a step toward building for the future at the expense of 2017.

 

Up to this point, we've heard no rumors of Santana being shopped, despite what is clearly a very receptive market for starting pitching. That might change, but it feels unlikely. One factor to account for is Paul Molitor's status as a lame duck manager. By all accounts the new CBO and GM have been working closely with the Hall of Famer, and they're surely empathetic to Molitor's desire to lead a rebound and keep his job.

 

Whether he can do so remains to be seen. But something tells me the front office won't do much to hinder him. Their hesitance to part with Dozier, along with their evident lack of interest in making Santana available, only underscores this.

~~~

Falvey sat with Matt Vasgersian and Harold Reynolds for an interview on MLB Network earlier this week and it's certainly worth watching if you'd like to get a read on the new Twins baseball prez.

 

Click here to view the article

[KirbyDome89]

"Their hesitance to part with Dozier, along with their evident lack of interest in making Santana available, only underscores this."

 

Lets hope they change at least one of those two stances this offseason...

[goliath]

I listened to Dodger talk on 570am in Los Angeles this evening, the host and Dodger insider David Vassegh said Dodgers have what they feel is a very reasonable baseball offer on table for Dozier, but waiting on Twins, as the new Twins regime is hesitant to part with the popular, productive Dozier and this be their first big move. 

[Linus]

I don't buy the premise that it's understandable they haven't done anything because they are getting settled. You can study the Dozier situation for an hour and know he has to go. Hopefully they are just holding out for a better deal.

[Vanimal46]

 

"Their hesitance to part with Dozier, along with their evident lack of interest in making Santana available, only underscores this."

 

Lets hope they change at least one of those two stances this offseason...

 

I want them both traded this off-season. 

[TheLeviathan]

The longer we go without a deal, the more my Minnesota-induced sports pessimism ramps up.

[Doomtints]

"In dealing away Sale, the White Sox have apparently committed to a blow-up rebuild, with reports of Jose Quintana, Todd Frazier and Jose Abreu now being on the block. Some will look at this as the path the Twins should have taken, and maybe still should take."

The Twins can't take that path.  The Twins don't have anyone who can hold a candle to Chris Sale or those other guys. 

[beckmt]

 

I listened to Dodger talk on 570am in Los Angeles this evening, the host and Dodger insider David Vassegh said Dodgers have what they feel is a very reasonable baseball offer on table for Dozier, but waiting on Twins, as the new Twins regime is hesitant to part with the popular, productive Dozier and this be their first big move. 

What the Dodgers feel is reasonable is probably a package headlined by Deleon, who be all accounts is a probably #3 starter.  Twins need a higher upside package or another player better that Deleon to make this deal.  Twins have a number of type 3 starters about 1 - 2 years away, why should we give away our best player for parts.

[Doomtints]

 

why should we give away our best player for parts.

 

Several reasons.

 

1)  Dozier's power did not help the team at all last year.

2)  Dozier is about to hit his decline years.

3)  His replacement is ready.

4)  The Twins have other holes that need to be plugged. 

5)  Though he's the team's "best player" he is by no means a hall of fame candidate.  Half of the White Sox roster is as good as Dozier is, and the White Sox did not even make the playoffs. 

Edited December 7, 2016 by Doomtints

[beckmt]

 

Several reasons.

 

1)  Dozier's power did not help the team at all last year.

2)  Dozier is about to hit his decline years.

3)  His replacement is ready.

4)  The Twins have other holes that need to be plugged. 

5)  Though he's the team's "best player" he is by no means a hall of fame candidate.  Half of the White Sox roster is as good as Dozier is, and the White Sox did not even make the playoffs. 

You also have to sell tickets for next year and none of those offered parts are likely to help do that.  I would rather than package Dozier and another Twins starter or mid level prospect and increase the return to at least a #2 upside prospect starter.

[Doomtints]

 

You also have to sell tickets for next year and none of those offered parts are likely to help do that.  I would rather than package Dozier and another Twins starter or mid level prospect and increase the return to at least a #2 upside prospect starter.

 

The best plan for improving attendance is to try to lose less than 90 games.  Dozier has been on a lot of teams that have not accomplished that feat. 

On a different roster, Dozier is incredibly valuable.  But he can't carry this team on his own. 

[Vanimal46]

 

The best plan for improving attendance is to try to lose less than 90 games.  Dozier has been on a lot of teams that have not accomplished that feat. 

On a different roster, Dozier is incredibly valuable.  But he can't carry this team on his own. 

Concur. No one is buying tickets specifically to watch Dozier or any other player. If they did, then Target Field would have been sold out every game last season during Dozier's historic tear at the plate.

They buy tickets for winning teams. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

You also have to sell tickets for next year and none of those offered parts are likely to help do that.  I would rather than package Dozier and another Twins starter or mid level prospect and increase the return to at least a #2 upside prospect starter.

 

The data is clear, winning is what sells tickets. Dozier isn't selling tickets. You can find this information on line, but it is winning that sells tickets.

[USAFChief]

Most Twins fans are casual fans, and I guarantee those fans would view a Dozier trade negatively.

 

I agree they need to win to turn around the attendance decline, but I also believe a Dozier trade would negatively impact interest in the Twins, at least for 2017.

[Vanimal46]

 

Most Twins fans are casual fans, and I guarantee those fans would view a Dozier trade negatively.

I agree they need to win to turn around the attendance decline, but I also believe a Dozier trade would negatively impact interest in the Twins, at least for 2017.

Wouldn't you say most Twins fans are casual fans because they haven't been competitive for a long time? 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Wouldn't you say most Twins fans are casual fans because they haven't been competitive for a long time? 

 

No, most sports fans are casual fans....they root and watch winners. So, even if they are competitive, they are still "casual" in the sense that if the team starts losing again, they will bail for other fun things to do. Which, frankly, they should. That is one of the incentives in business, put out a good product, or lose money.....

[beckmt]

It is still hard to sell tickets(corporate and business use type) if you are projecting to lose more than 100 games and be non competitive.  That could well be the projection if you trade Dozier for high upside A players or middle of the road AAA players(#3 starters).

[Mike Sixel]

 

It is still hard to sell tickets(corporate and business use type) if you are projecting to lose more than 100 games and be non competitive.  That could well be the projection if you trade Dozier for high upside A players or middle of the road AAA players(#3 starters).

 

It's not a 1 year plan.....that's still the projection even with Dozier, to lose a lot. Isn't it?

[beckmt]

 

It's not a 1 year plan.....that's still the projection even with Dozier, to lose a lot. Isn't it?

I believe the plan is to improve this year and treat last year as the perfect storm.  Your line seems to be keep trading players and hope you get a class that comes together at one time.  That is a small market strategy, Twins are a mid market team.

[d-mac]

 

Wouldn't you say most Twins fans are casual fans because they haven't been competitive for a long time? 

 

Having lived outside of MN for a number of years and then moving back, and a brother that lives in Boston, I'd say most Minnesota sports fans are generally casual and very bandwaggon-y compared to fans even across the border in WI or in Chicago. Furthermore, they don't seem to understand what it takes to make championship winning teams, are impatient, yet don't like change- which is a very difficult environment for any front office to try to navigate. 

[Vanimal46]

 

Having lived outside of MN for a number of years and then moving back, and a brother that lives in Boston, I'd say most Minnesota sports fans are generally casual and very bandwaggon-y compared to fans even across the border in WI or in Chicago. Furthermore, they don't seem to understand what it takes to make championship winning teams, are impatient, yet don't like change- which is a very difficult environment for any front office to try to navigate. 

Yeah good points. I could have just looked at myself in the mirror and think about my fandom with the Minnesota Vikings.... If they're doing good, everyone's excited and shouting from the rooftops "Super Bowl Homeboy!!" When they're struggling, and it's a nice day outside, I'm choosing to golf instead of watching them play. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

I believe the plan is to improve this year and treat last year as the perfect storm.  Your line seems to be keep trading players and hope you get a class that comes together at one time.  That is a small market strategy, Twins are a mid market team.

 

Uh, no, that's not my plan, but thanks for putting words in my mouth. 

 

Dozier is signed for 2 more years....they aren't going to be good next year, and probably not the year after (if they don't trade Dozier and/or ESan).....

 

I've never once, until now, been accused of suggesting the Twins act like a small market team. I'm sure birdwatcher and others are quite amused by this suggestion. 

 

Trading Dozier isn't about building one class, the first class of Buxton, Sano, and Berrios is already "here". It's about increasing the odds of them having more good players when it matters.

 

YMMV, of course. But I don't personally see a legit path to success w/o trading Dozier for 1-3 legit prospects. In 2 years, Mauer's deal is off the books. They'll have plenty of money to re-sign anyone that turns out great, or to add in FA at that point.

[beckmt]

 

Uh, no, that's not my plan, but thanks for putting words in my mouth. 

 

Dozier is signed for 2 more years....they aren't going to be good next year, and probably not the year after (if they don't trade Dozier and/or ESan).....

 

I've never once, until now, been accused of suggesting the Twins act like a small market team. I'm sure birdwatcher and others are quite amused by this suggestion. 

 

Trading Dozier isn't about building one class, the first class of Buxton, Sano, and Berrios is already "here". It's about increasing the odds of them having more good players when it matters.

 

YMMV, of course. But I don't personally see a legit path to success w/o trading Dozier for 1-3 legit prospects. In 2 years, Mauer's deal is off the books. They'll have plenty of money to re-sign anyone that turns out great, or to add in FA at that point.

I agree on trading Dozier and have for a long time, if the return is good.  Not for parts including a #3 starter as a headliner.  Do not mind trading Dozier for players further away, but you had better be sure there is a winner or two in that package.  Otherwise all you have is churn.  I am looking for success over the long term and operating from a midmarket perspective.  You cannot keep trading 5 WAR players for A level prospects and succeed in the long run.  Sometimes that means sitting on your hands until you get a good deal. 

Some of your points are valid, though I do not see the Twins forcing Mauer to leave or retire, he may choose that course himself based on the money he if offered to play here. 

I do agree that a big part of the Twins problem is the lack of international spending and blowing by the budget over the last couple of years.  I just feel trading Dozier for the sake of trading him is the wrong course.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I agree on trading Dozier and have for a long time, if the return is good.  Not for parts including a #3 starter as a headliner.  Do not mind trading Dozier for players further away, but you had better be sure there is a winner or two in that package.  Otherwise all you have is churn.  I am looking for success over the long term and operating from a midmarket perspective.  You cannot keep trading 5 WAR players for A level prospects and succeed in the long run.  Sometimes that means sitting on your hands until you get a good deal. 

Some of your points are valid, though I do not see the Twins forcing Mauer to leave or retire, he may choose that course himself based on the money he if offered to play here. 

I do agree that a big part of the Twins problem is the lack of international spending and blowing by the budget over the last couple of years.  I just feel trading Dozier for the sake of trading him is the wrong course.

 

? on Mauer? He's gone in 2 years, I don't know what you are typing there at all.

 

"keep trading 5 WAR players"? When have they done that? Santana or Knoblauch? One of those actually worked.....

 

Sigh. Who here has said trade him for the sake of trading him? Other than those arguing against trading him?

 

Yes, the number 1 issue is lack of talent. That's driven by a lot of things, I can't say for sure if it is scouting, drafting, development, willingness to go all in on spending, or what.....but they need more talent.

[Nick Nelson]

 

Most Twins fans are casual fans, and I guarantee those fans would view a Dozier trade negatively.

I don't think this is close to accurate as a blanket statement. I know plenty of casual fans who are eager for a complete overhaul. They would be more than happy with a Dozier trade if it brings back highly touted prospect talent. 

[jctwins]

 

I believe the plan is to improve this year and treat last year as the perfect storm.  Your line seems to be keep trading players and hope you get a class that comes together at one time.  That is a small market strategy, Twins are a mid market team.

 

I believe you are making this as a statement of fact. 

 

This might be true, but I believe the propenderance of statements made that year to year comparisons aren't really the priority right now, and building a team with a long term plan is. That does not necessarily represent any immediate improvement in the record, just better decision making with player development and rebuilding the system in mind.

 

 

[TheLeviathan]

As a Twins fan I want them to win.  I don't care that Dozier is a nice guy or the face of the team.  I want wins.

 

Short of dealing Dozier, i don't know how we right this ship for quite awhile.

[beckmt]

 

? on Mauer? He's gone in 2 years, I don't know what you are typing there at all.

 

"keep trading 5 WAR players"? When have they done that? Santana or Knoblauch? One of those actually worked.....

 

Sigh. Who here has said trade him for the sake of trading him? Other than those arguing against trading him?

 

Yes, the number 1 issue is lack of talent. That's driven by a lot of things, I can't say for sure if it is scouting, drafting, development, willingness to go all in on spending, or what.....but they need more talent.

Mike you are making the point of trading Dozier without specifying how good a return you want.  I feel we need a good return or hang onto Dozier for the time being.  I do not think a headliner of a #3 starter is good enough return for a player who has averaged just under 5 WAR for the last 3 years.  I do think if the Twins wait or check with more clubs, they will find a better return.  They just need to be more creative and I do think this new front office is aware of this. 

The point on Mauer was that it is not sure he is gone in 2 years, if he is still here it will be at a much lower salary, but you do not force the face of the team out the door(think Killebrew). 

Neither of us knows how good the young players are, so to say lack of talent is incorrect, though lack of major league talent may be correct at this time. I have been the advocate of better pitching for a few years now and a shutdown bullpen is a cureall for bad starting pitching.  That alone could result in the Twins being competitive next year.  That is why I would give up the second round draft pick and sign Jansen and by the end of next year the Twins could very well have the shutdown bullpen.  That along would make us competitive, and work on the starting pitching over the next 2 years. 

We will have to see if the current players in the field can take it to the next level.  That is for evaluation next year.

[laloesch]

 

Most Twins fans are casual fans, and I guarantee those fans would view a Dozier trade negatively.

I agree they need to win to turn around the attendance decline, but I also believe a Dozier trade would negatively impact interest in the Twins, at least for 2017.

 

I don't understand the relevance of this post but okay....i guess. 

[beckmt]

 

As a Twins fan I want them to win.  I don't care that Dozier is a nice guy or the face of the team.  I want wins.

 

Short of dealing Dozier, i don't know how we right this ship for quite awhile.

 

Just would be very careful dealing with the Dodgers, Look how the last two trades with Friedman worked out.  Just think we are being offered disposable parts to help the Dodgers out.