POTUS Donald Trump

[stringer bell]

I absolutely think the House is in play and that Senate control is possible, if not likely. If the sheen comes off the economy, it could be very bad for Republicans, like 50 seats in the House and Senate control. If the economy continues to go well, it'll be touch and go for House control and the Republicans will probably gain a seat or two in the Senate.

[Mike Sixel]

Nate Silver thinks it is about 50/50 right now for the House.....every retirement makes that more likely, if only because the GOP has to spend money in places they had not planned, even if the seat is "safe".

 

It's really about how angry, imo, certain people can stay, and if they show up and vote. I'm fairly confident the GOP base will vote......

[stringer bell]

There was plenty of Trump love at my workplace this morning. Four of the six people present thought he gave a great speech. Much criticism for the Democrats for their "lack of respect", not applauding etc. One comment was that when Trump boasted about accomplishments, he used the word "we", while Obama would always talk about "I".

 

I'm probably not a fair barometer since I just can't stand the man. I will say I wasn't impressed, but I have already seen enough to believe he is a bully, a narcissist, and easily influenced by right wing talking points.

[D. Hocking]

 

There was plenty of Trump love at my workplace this morning. Four of the six people present thought he gave a great speech. Much criticism for the Democrats for their "lack of respect", not applauding etc. One comment was that when Trump boasted about accomplishments, he used the word "we", while Obama would always talk about "I".

 

I'm probably not a fair barometer since I just can't stand the man. I will say I wasn't impressed, but I have already seen enough to believe he is a bully, a narcissist, and easily influenced by right wing talking points.

 

Yes - just because he could read the word "we" last night, every other thing he has done or uttered or tweeted has been pure I, me, and myself.  And while he might not as been overtly divisive as normal last night, he threw out enough bread crumbs and dog whistles to satisfy this hard core base.

 

Content aside - I did not think he looked or sounded well. Although we did just find out he was in excellent shape including outstanding mental faculties, so it must have been my imagination.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I absolutely think the House is in play and that Senate control is possible, if not likely. If the sheen comes off the economy, it could be very bad for Republicans, like 50 seats in the House and Senate control. If the economy continues to go well, it'll be touch and go for House control and the Republicans will probably gain a seat or two in the Senate.

 

There's just not much margin of error is the thing.  Of the 44 seats that can be challenged, only (I think) 8 of them are Republican seats.  Even if you have a killer turn-out, there just isn't much possibility for gain there.  You could still swing the Senate, but you're going into it with the odds low.  

 

There is more room in the House, but even then it may be hard.  I expect good Democratic turnout and a pretty decisive butt-kicking across most of the country.  But that still might not mean they take either body of Congress. 

[ashbury]

We may look back and decide May 2017 was the high-water mark for the Dems, which would mean peaking too soon. I'm downright pessimistic on their chances this November; likely lose seats in the Senate and do slightly more than tread water in the House.

[Badsmerf]

The economy is going to eventually stall. There is enough reason to believe the Dow is over inflated now. If the tax cuts don't translate into higher pay and faster growth, it isn't going to play well.

 

There will be a lot more momentum in 6 months. Just wait until Trump starts campaigning or being asked not to campaign. The house should swing, the Senate is up in the air.

[gunnarthor]

 

We may look back and decide May 2017 was the high-water mark for the Dems, which would mean peaking too soon. I'm downright pessimistic on their chances this November; likely lose seats in the Senate and do slightly more than tread water in the House.

I think you're too pessimistic. For that to be the highwater mark it would basically mean that Trump stops doing Trump stuff. Admittedly, it's hard to top what he's done but he will.

 

I believe Nate Silver had an article about gerrymandering and said that the Dems would have to win a national election by something like +3 to break even in the House. They are well ahead of that right now. Gerrymandering is bad but look in MN, Walz, Peterson and Nolan have all held down republican leaning districts. Lewis and Paulsen are strong pick up opportunities for Dems this cycle (well, Lewis is. Paulsen should be but he's pretty well liked by his voters.) I think a big wave will give the Dems the House back, barring some (what's the word for "opposite of a miracle"?)

[TheLeviathan]

 

I think you're too pessimistic. For that to be the highwater mark it would basically mean that Trump stops doing Trump stuff. Admittedly, it's hard to top what he's done but he will.

 

I believe Nate Silver had an article about gerrymandering and said that the Dems would have to win a national election by something like +3 to break even in the House. They are well ahead of that right now. Gerrymandering is bad but look in MN, Walz, Peterson and Nolan have all held down republican leaning districts. Lewis and Paulsen are strong pick up opportunities for Dems this cycle (well, Lewis is. Paulsen should be but he's pretty well liked by his voters.) I think a big wave will give the Dems the House back, barring some (what's the word for "opposite of a miracle"?)

 

I thought they had fallen to something right around +3 right now?  Where were you seeing a higher number?

 

I think they'll have great turnout, I just think the seats available to them are just too limited to have the kind of sweeping butt-kicking the Republicans deserve.  I hope I'm wrong though.

[D. Hocking]

The way we jump from controversy to controversy these days - with the former controversy being forgotten within a week, because people cannot keep track of everything, who knows what crazy things are going to happen in the next 9 months and what will be on people's minds when they vote.

 

The Democrats are generally worse at turn-out, esp. in midterms.  Hopefully, they will realize the seriousness of these elections.  If there had been better turn-out in 2016, there would be no need for this thread.

[PseudoSABR]

 

I thought they had fallen to something right around +3 right now?  Where were you seeing a higher number?

 

I think they'll have great turnout, I just think the seats available to them are just too limited to have the kind of sweeping butt-kicking the Republicans deserve.  I hope I'm wrong though.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=rrpromo

[mikecgrimes]

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=rrpromo

 

Most recent polls are showing huge movement.  I think a major political mistake was made when Democrats made it sound like the average citizen was getting a tax increase and people are taking a close look at their pay checks and seeing real disposable income.  I believe Trumps political skill is to bait his opponents into not thinking politics when countering him, and without economic collapse he and Republicans will continue to trend upwards.

[Mike Sixel]

Most recent polls are showing huge movement. I think a major political mistake was made when Democrats made it sound like the average citizen was getting a tax increase and people are taking a close look at their pay checks and seeing real disposable income. I believe Trumps political skill is to bait his opponents into not thinking politics when countering him, and without economic collapse he and Republicans will continue to trend upwards.

Agree on all counts here.

[TheLeviathan]

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=rrpromo

 

Looks like it's closer to +6 right now.  I'm not sure that's enough, in part because I'm not sure that number is going to trend upward.  

 

(As of today, but with the current crap storm we have in politics that is given to change by the minute)

[ashbury]

Most recent polls are showing huge movement.  I think a major political mistake was made when Democrats made it sound like the average citizen was getting a tax increase and people are taking a close look at their pay checks and seeing real disposable income.

In addition, I expect that the recent brief federal shutdown will wind up leaving most middle of the road voters seeing it as an example of fecklessness by the Democrats (even if that's not the word they come up with).

[jimmer]

Hmmm, I am not seeing more disposable income. My taxes went up slightly (basically in line with my small annual pay raise) when my step in crease takes place next pay check, it will rise again. My taxes certainly didnt go lower. No additional income was created for this guy.

[D. Hocking]

This lie is minor compared to some of his others - but his need to have to be the best that he is either so arrogant and/or delusional that he will lie about something that can be so easily fact-checked is astounding.  The fact people just take him lying as Trump being Trump and lies like this barely create any outrage (especially among his followers who think of themselves and moral and usually consider their beliefs as being the most moral) is a sad comment on how low things have sunk. 

 

Completely avoiding any fact that does not fit your reality and getting away with this behavior is now Presidential.

 

(FYI - in case you think whatever Trump says is gospel, he really did not have the highest rating ever for his speech,)

 

Donald J. Trump‏Verified account
@realDonaldTrump
Thank you for all of the nice compliments and reviews on the State of the Union speech. 45.6 million people watched, the highest number in history. @FoxNews beat every other Network, for the first time ever, with 11.7 million people tuning in. Delivered from the heart!

[ashbury]

Delivered from the heart!

Reading from a teleprompter is the exact opposite of every use of "from the heart" I ever heard of. Nothing wrong with preparing your SOTU beforehand of course, just as they all are; it contains what you believe in, and then gets polished and triangulated to within an inch of its life.

[stringer bell]

The president and his party usually get a bump from SOTU. Trump is toxic and Congress remains very unpopular. I don’t think this is a permanent increase in popularity for the “in” party, but Democrats need to have a message of more than “we don’t like Trump”.

[Squirrel]

 

The president and his party usually get a bump from SOTU. Trump is toxic and Congress remains very unpopular. I don’t think this is a permanent increase in popularity for the “in” party, but Democrats need to have a message of more than “we don’t like Trump”.

The Democrats can't agree on a message that suits everyone in the party. They will continue to flounder on this front, imo.

[TheLeviathan]

 

The president and his party usually get a bump from SOTU. Trump is toxic and Congress remains very unpopular. I don’t think this is a permanent increase in popularity for the “in” party, but Democrats need to have a message of more than “we don’t like Trump”.

 

The Dems just started attacking each other over the Dreamer issue.  I hate to say it as someone who supports giving them full citizenship.....but that's a losing issue to draw the line in the sand over.

 

Have some courage.....start making the case now about universal health care.  That's an issue that effects every level of every citizen's life.  Sad as it is to say, but the Dreamers are an issue that has to be a backburner. 

 

Plus....just take Trump's offer.  His base hates it (plus), you protect the dreamers (plus), and you can fight the immigration fight another day.  (what we've been doing for 50 years)

 

Fight a fight that will win you elections, not lose them.

[Badsmerf]

The last month has given republicans more hope in the midterms. All these states congressional maps being thrown out is going to have a huge impact. If democrats get fair maps in states like Pennsylvania... there could be a huge swing.

 

I think the democrats are best to barely take the house, and even it up in the Senate. I don't think winning both chambers will help in 2020, and only having power in the house will work to their advantage. They should want to stop the bleeding now, and slaughter the pig in 2020 with the census and new maps being drawn.

 

For the gop, there will be a judgement day. The base is leading them further away from the center/truth/reason. If Romney runs for Senate, they will gain a huge boost from him. The louder and more people listening to the extreme end of the party the worse off they are. Their demographic is changing to a flighty demographic that relies on memes on Facebook for info, and the ultra wealthy that prosper at the peril of others.

[PseudoSABR]

 

Looks like it's closer to +6 right now.  I'm not sure that's enough, in part because I'm not sure that number is going to trend upward.  

 

(As of today, but with the current crap storm we have in politics that is given to change by the minute)

Further commentary of the trend: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-happened-to-the-democratic-wave/?ex_cid=538twitter

 

For my part, these polls are meaningless, it's all about turnout 10 months from now.   The Democrats should lay low for until the summer, enthusiasm fatigue was always a thing.   

 

Let the GOP have their victory lap with State of the Union, the tax bill windfall to payroll and a handful of hiring/bonuses.   Come summer and fall, like everything, that too will be taken for granted.

 

This month might be a total win for the GOP if not for Nunes, the memo, and the FBI.  They'll be plenty of other moments to embolden reasonable people and subdue the crazies between now and November.  I just hope the Democrats are organized, because there's perhaps no other time in American history that one party would want to fix the vote.  

[mikecgrimes]

This lie is minor compared to some of his others - but his need to have to be the best that he is either so arrogant and/or delusional that he will lie about something that can be so easily fact-checked is astounding.

 

Donald J. Trump‏Verified account

@realDonaldTrump

Thank you for all of the nice compliments and reviews on the State of the Union speech. 45.6 million people watched, the highest number in history. @FoxNews beat every other Network, for the first time ever, with 11.7 million people tuning in. Delivered from the heart!

He tweeted that so the media would report the yeah but the media countered with. He tweeted that to control the narrative. He tweeted that because once the context is lost any minor error in the now widely reported numbers will look really bad. He tweeted that because the predictable responses does little to no damage but the potential benefit is significant. He tweeted that because he's always thinking at least two moves ahead. Maybe I'm wrong and you're right, but look at all these sorts of things in hindsight and the pattern is clear.

[mikecgrimes]

 

The president and his party usually get a bump from SOTU. Trump is toxic and Congress remains very unpopular. I don’t think this is a permanent increase in popularity for the “in” party, but Democrats need to have a message of more than “we don’t like Trump”.

 

The bump came before the state of union of which we still have no fully post SOTU polls.  

[D. Hocking]

He tweeted that because the predictable responses does little to no damage but the potential benefit is significant.

It just shows what a sad state things are in when pointing out someone blatantly lying (it was not a minor misrepresentation, there were clearly a number of addresses that had higher ratings) to feed his own ego is simply seen as predictable and his lying is seen as great strategy (and sadder still, is does seem to be a working strategy).

[mikecgrimes]

I know I'm very stupid, but let me look at my pay stub again.  More money is bad right?

[TheLeviathan]

 

I just hope the Democrats are organized, because there's perhaps no other time in American history that one party would want to fix the vote.  

 

Organization has rarely been the strong suit of the Dems.  I hope they are as well.  I also wish the map better favored the results of a landslide.  

[jimmer]

 

I don't think calling names is appropriate. Some members on this forum likely voted for Trump, and I don't consider them those names. The contributors to this thread lean left, and we having real debates with opposing viewpoints, please edit.

For you, and because you asked in the manner you did, I will rephrase: Plenty of people buy Trump's (and Paul Ryan's) lies as fact. About half the country was fooled into voting for Trump and a huge chunk still believe in everything he says and does.  They have his back cause they can't see that the people Trump and his GOP cronies are going to hurt is them.

 

For those who got a decrease in taxes, I hope they enjoy it while it lasts. Their tax break is temporary while the huge tax break for the rich is permanent.  I didn't get a tax break.  My taxes rose a little bit after getting my tiny annual increase at the beginning of the year.  So I imagine in a few years, it's going to hurt even more knowing that I never got the bigger paychecks even for the short time others did.

 

Then again, if money is what made my world go round, and if it is what I judged a President on, then maybe seeing a slight increase in my paycheck would fool me too.

[mikecgrimes]

 

 

For those who got a decrease in taxes, I hope they enjoy it while it lasts. Their tax break is temporary 

 

Has there ever been one that wasn't?  I guess I'll have to vote again this November and hopefully flip two US Senate seats so we can continue to see tax cuts.