Article: Official Winter Meetings Monday Thread

[Seth Stohs]

Today, the Winter Meetings officially begin. There was an awards banquet on Sunday night, but the full slate of meetings begin today.

 

Use this thread as the official Twins Daily rumor mill. If you read or hear some Twins-related rumors, post them in the comments. If you are hearing big player movement, post them here. Obviously if the Twins make any major league moves, we'll post that in its own article, but let's let the discussions begain.The best thing about the Winter Meetings is all the rumors.

 

The worst thing about the Winter Meetings is all the rumors.

 

We're going to hear a lot of conversation, a lot of rumors. Again, GMs will be talking to GMs. GMs will be talking to Agents. GMs and other baseball executives will have media sessions, and fans everywhere will cling onto every single word.

 

It's fun to read all the rumors. First, it's fun to contemplate what it would take for the Twins to get Player X. Second, it is then fun to think about how that player will look in the lineup. Third, the reality is that the teams each will likely make just a few transactions, so there will be many more rumors than there are actual transactions.

 

Here is a tremendous interaction/discussion from MLB Network between Greg Amsinger, Dan O'Dowd, Ken Rosenthal, and Peter Gammons, discussing how teams try to use the media and how media tries to decipher all the information they're being given.

 

 

That said, there are a lot of free agents on the market looking to sign somewhere. The key free agents will set the market for the others.

 

Teams like to be aggressive early, as the Twins were with the signing of Jason Castro, but agents who have their clients wait will either find more dollars as they wait, or if they wait too long, they may run out of suitors.

 

And then there will be a bunch of minor league signings. Teams need to fill out their AA and AAA rosters and they'll want to do so with guys that can do something at the big leagues if they were needed.

 

On that front, Darren Wolfson of KSTP-TV and 1500 ESPN radio, tweeted the following:

 

 

Paulsen has spent parts of the last three seasons with the Colorado Rockies. He was removed from the 40-man roster and became a free agent. He has played the corner outfield positions and some first base.

 

My initial thought was Meh. And my second thought and any subsequent thoughts were Meh. I mean, no minor league signing is going to create a lot of excitement. But it certainly can get some thoughts going. I mean, The Twins have corner outfielders in Eddie Rosario and Max Kepler and Robbie Grossman in the big leagues. Eddie Rosario and Robbie Grossman could be a pretty solid platoon. At 1B/DH, the Twins have Joe Mauer, Kennys Vargas, Byungho Park all in contention for a couple of big league spot.

 

But maybe the Falvey/Levine combo might be willing to trade Eddie Rosario or Kennys Vargas or Byungho Park. Kennys Vargas gets the extra option season, which is valuable to the Twins, but it's valuable to other teams as well.

 

Then consider the AAA roster. Adam Brett Walker was lost. Daniel Palka will be in Rochester. Zack Granite will be in Rochester. Will Travis Harrison and/or Dalton Hicks make the jump to AAA? There is no harm in signing a guy like Paulsen who will likely spend most of the season in Rochester, but has had success in the big leagues.

 

Enough about Ben Paulsen. Let's talk Brian Dozier.

 

Yesterday's thread was led by the Bob Nightengale tweet yesterday morning about the Dodgers being the leader in the Dozier sweepstakes, and that they have now piqued the Twins interest.

 

Later in the day, Jon Heyman tweeted the following:

 

 

Again, the Dodgers remain the leaders, but wouldn't it be fun to have an idea of who those other four or five teams might be?

 

Adding some fun to the discussion, Brian Dozier is scheduled to be at the Winter Meetings on Monday. He is there for a marketing commitment for Under Armour, but the timing is still interesting, of course. Maybe he can finally get some time and meet Derek Falvey and Thad Levine. We'll see what comes of it, if anything.

 

It will also be fun to see what happens around the AL Central. Cleveland is obviously going to be good for awhile. Will they do much?

 

The Royals were up to $135 million last year, and they're projected to be at $148 million. Sources told Ken Rosenthal that their break-even point is between $115-120 million, so they will likely be looking to deal some of their key players. They've got a lot of players in that group that are just starting to make some really good money. So, which will they keep and which will they trade?

 

The Tigers are rumored to be shopping JD Martinez and Ian Kinsler. Miguel Cabrera said he's willing to be traded, but that is unlikely.

 

The White Sox are clearly shopping Chris Sale. Atlanta and Washington are the two teams most mentioned. Dealing Sale would certainly hurt the White Sox short-term, but they could get a huge return for him as he is easily one of the top 10 starting pitchers in baseball. The White Sox have one of the worst farm systems in baseball, so they would add some talent.

 

A few more notes:

• Yesterday we wondered about Andrew McCutchen going to the Nationals. We just mentioned that Chris Sale has been mentioned with the Nationals. For what it's worth, the Nationals said on Sunday that they feel they have the players to get both.
• Matt Holliday, who missed most of the 2016 season with injury, signed a one year, $13 million deal with the New York Yankees. Obviously he can hit when healthy. More important, the one year deal isn't prohibitive to the Yankees, who don't want to be paying into the luxury tax.
• Joe Nathan, who is 42, says that he wants to pitch again in 2017. He pitched just one game in April of 2015 (against the Twins) and needed Tommy John surgery. He signed with the Cubs and pitched in three games for them before they let him go. He signed with the Giants and pitched in seven games for them.
• Where will Edwin Encarnacion and his stupid imaginary parrot wind up?
• Which of the Big Three closers will sign first? Mark Melancon, Aroldis Chapman or Kenley Jansen?

So there is some stuff to discuss to get things started this morning. Discuss any of these topics and keep checking back as more rumors come and go throughout the day.

 

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[mazeville]

I think the Kansas City news is interesting. With them potentially getting rid of some players, Detroit considering trades, the White Sox looking to trade Chris Sale ... the door could be opening for the Twins if Falvine can get some pitching and bolster the defense. 

 

And I don't know whether I'm confident or not that Dozier gets traded. There's an awful lot of smoke. But there are also a lot of "buts" involved, like "... but he's only there for a marketing commitment" or a "but it's more rumor than substance."

 

Still, four or five teams suggests a modest bidding war that could get the Twins the package they'd want. 

[Seth Stohs]

Derek Falvey on MLB Radio this morning:

 

 

[HitInAPinch]

I'd be really interested to see a list of the KC players that would be made available.  And the 4-5 teams looking into a Dozier trade.  Fantastic that Dozier is at the meetings, no matter how he got there.

 

EDIT:  actually, the KC moves are already happening:

 

https://kingsofkauffman.com/2016/11/24/kc-royals-releasing-c-tony-cruz-clarifies-payroll-picture/

Edited December 5, 2016 by HitInAPinch

[Baseball Bat]

 

Derek Falvey on MLB Radio this morning:

 

Might be reading too much into this, but based on that small conversation I would say that Falvey might even be thinking that more likely than not Dozier will be traded. Anyone else agree?

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Might be reading too much into this, but based on that small conversation I would say that Falvey might even be thinking that more likely than not Dozier will be traded. Anyone else agree?

yes, I agree completely. Short interview but I loved everything Falvey said.

[Vanimal46]

Twins fans could go back and forth about who to trade and what to target in the past, but know nothing really was going to happen.

 

This year with the new regime is a different feeling. I do think Falvey and Co. could trade Dozier in the next couple of days, and maybe make another splash at these meetings.

[HitInAPinch]

I just listened to the interview.  Falvey is not showing his cards.  He's letting teams know that a trade is possible, but has no problem going into 2017 with Dozier on the team. He did a good job.  Now, let's see what happens.

Edited December 5, 2016 by HitInAPinch

[Monkeypaws]

Ryan did Falvey a nice favor by signing Dozier to that extension. What a chip to play with during your first winter meetings in charge.

[Vanimal46]

There's all these rumors out there that the Nationals are interested in acquiring both Sale and McCutchen. Along with being involved in both Melancon and Jansen for the open closer role.

 

Are they coming to the conclusion that they won't be able to afford Harper and are trying to go for it right now?

[Pardon My Dinger]

 

There's all these rumors out there that the Nationals are interested in acquiring both Sale and McCutchen. Along with being involved in both Melancon and Jansen for the open closer role.

 

Are they coming to the conclusion that they won't be able to afford Harper and are trying to go for it right now?

I think they've come to the conclusion that they're going to have to beat the Cubs somehow. 

[markos]

 

There's all these rumors out there that the Nationals are interested in acquiring both Sale and McCutchen. Along with being involved in both Melancon and Jansen for the open closer role.

 

Are they coming to the conclusion that they won't be able to afford Harper and are trying to go for it right now?

Most definitely. They structured both Scherzer's and Strasburg's contracts with massive outlays in 2019 - ~$80M between the two of them. Adding Ryan Zimmerman's $18M and they will have almost $100M tied up in 3 players. Much of the rest of the roster will be gone (Murphy, Gonzales, Werth, Espinoza, Norris) or on the cusp of leaving (Rendon and Roark). I don't think there is any way to fit a Harper deal (assuming he gets the $40M+ he is looking for) and still be able to fill out a competitive roster, especially on the position player side. They have one blue-chip position prospect (Robles), but basically every other interesting prospect is a pitcher.

 

My guess is that they go for broke for the next two years and then pick up the pieces after 2018.

[Seth Stohs]

Left without comment:

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Yesterday's thread was led by the Bob Nightengale tweet yesterday morning about the Dodgers being the leader in the Dozier sweepstakes, and that they have now piqued the Twins interest.

Probably also worth noting that Wolfson said Nightengale's "pique" tweet was "more rumor than substance".

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

Ryan did Falvey a nice favor by signing Dozier to that extension. What a chip to play with during your first winter meetings in charge.

 

Just think if they would have bought out a free agent year (or two) or had a team option (or two).

[DaveW]

Just think if they would have bought out a free agent year (or two) or had a team option (or two).

Yuuuuuupppp

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Ryan did Falvey a nice favor by signing Dozier to that extension. What a chip to play with during your first winter meetings in charge.

It worked out OK, but I'm not sure it mattered that much to his current trade value.  What would Dozier be slated to receive in arbitration?  I really don't know.  An extra $3 mil this winter, maybe?  Maybe another extra $3 mil next winter, if he has a good 2017?  Not nothing, of course, but not really much of a factor -- the Dodgers, Nationals, etc. really aren't going to see their interest shift, of their offers significantly improve, based on that amount.

 

As Jeremy notes, an extra year or two of control (or options) would have been a big factor.  TR could have possibly gotten that if he had been willing to commit a year earlier, perhaps?

[bluechipper]

Mark Melancon is signing with the Giants. No big surprise there, as that really helps fill out their team. Maybe an upgrade in the outfield is the next move for them.

[Seth Stohs]

Looks like Mark Melancon is signing with the Giants.

[markos]

 

It worked out OK, but I'm not sure it mattered that much to his current trade value.  What would Dozier be slated to receive in arbitration?  I really don't know.  An extra $3 mil this winter, maybe?  Maybe another extra $3 mil next winter, if he has a good 2017?  Not nothing, of course, but not really much of a factor -- the Dodgers, Nationals, etc. really aren't going to see their interest shift, of their offers significantly improve, based on that amount.

 

As Jeremy notes, an extra year or two of control (or options) would have been a big factor.  TR could have possibly gotten that if he had been willing to commit a year earlier, perhaps?

Would extra guaranteed years move the needle very much? Say he got something along the lines of Jason Kipnis or Matt Carpenter, so ~$14M for his FA years. I'm not sure their is a ton of surplus value for a 32-33yo Dozier at that cost. There is probably some, as he would be slightly underpaid if he didn't deteriorate too severely into his mid-thirties. But that extra value, two seasons away, is dwarfed by the near-term value as a significantly underpaid elite player. 

 

Now, there is some value there - I'm not trying to deny that - I just don't think it is a huge amount. For example, I don't think adding two more years to his contract at $14M per - even as team options - would be enough to put Urias in play. Maybe the secondary pieces would be better, but I don't think it changes the basic framework very much.

[mazeville]

For what it's worth, LaVelle also used the word "piqued" in his post on the Winter Meetings today ...

 

http://www.startribune.com/day-1-for-twins-at-winter-meetings-brian-dozier-set-to-arrive/404783686/

 

Of course, he also said he doesn't expect the Twins to make a major move and "as of now" doesn't think that Dozier will be modeling a Dodgers uniform this week. 

[Mr. Brooks]

Would extra guaranteed years move the needle very much? Say he got something along the lines of Jason Kipnis or Matt Carpenter, so ~$14M for his FA years. I'm not sure their is a ton of surplus value for a 32-33yo Dozier at that cost. There is probably some, as he would be slightly underpaid if he didn't deteriorate too severely into his mid-thirties. But that extra value, two seasons away, is dwarfed by the near-term value as a significantly underpaid elite player.

 

Now, there is some value there - I'm not trying to deny that - I just don't think it is a huge amount. For example, I don't think adding two more years to his contract at $14M per - even as team options - would be enough to put Urias in play. Maybe the secondary pieces would be better, but I don't think it changes the basic framework very much.

It would have a lot of value.

Even if he doesn't outperform his value in an extra year or two into his FA years, he's not likely to underperform them. And there is a ton of value in getting him at 32 and 33 at a fair price without having to commit to his later years- which is what someone is going to have to commit to in free agency.

[nicksaviking]

 

For what it's worth, LaVelle also used the word "piqued" in his post on the Winter Meetings today ...

 

http://www.startribune.com/day-1-for-twins-at-winter-meetings-brian-dozier-set-to-arrive/404783686/

 

Of course, he also said he doesn't expect the Twins to make a major move and "as of now" doesn't think that Dozier will be modeling a Dodgers uniform this week. 

 

From La Velle's piece:

 

--But there's no rush here to move Dozier. If the Twins don't like the names they are hearing, they can hold on to Dozier and see who caves at the trade deadline.--

 

I think La Velle somehow forgot about Dozier's first two regrettable months last year. Dozier's 1st half/2nd half splits tend to be monumental and you never know which end is going to be the hot one. That doesn't make for a risk I'm overly comfortable taking, and I'm generally a risk taker when it comes to stuff like this.

 

Unless the offers are genuinely lopsided against the Twins right now, Brian Dozier is NOT a guy I'm going into the year with assuming I'll be able to trade him for better value in July. Clearly they weren't blown away with offers last July.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Would extra guaranteed years move the needle very much? Say he got something along the lines of Jason Kipnis or Matt Carpenter, so ~$14M for his FA years. I'm not sure their is a ton of surplus value for a 32-33yo Dozier at that cost. There is probably some, as he would be slightly underpaid if he didn't deteriorate too severely into his mid-thirties. But that extra value, two seasons away, is dwarfed by the near-term value as a significantly underpaid elite player. 

 

Now, there is some value there - I'm not trying to deny that - I just don't think it is a huge amount. For example, I don't think adding two more years to his contract at $14M per - even as team options - would be enough to put Urias in play. Maybe the secondary pieces would be better, but I don't think it changes the basic framework very much.

But arbitration suppresses salaries pretty well, especially a second-time arb eligible player like Dozier would have been this winter. It's difficult to be THAT significantly underpaid at that point. So the "cost control" aspect of the contract is only saving ~$3 mil at this point, maybe a few more million next winter depending on his 2017 performance.

 

Obviously, there is nothing we could change about this contract that would bring Urias into play (other than perhaps replacing Dozier's signature with Mike Trout's ).

 

But he's really not that much better of a trade piece today, owed $15 mil over the next 2 years, than he would have been owed ~$21 mil or whatever through arbitration over the same time.  ~$30 mil for 3 years of control would probably make him a little better trade target, and of course an option year would have been best.  (Still no Urias, though!)

Edited December 5, 2016 by spycake

[Vanimal46]

Closer Mark Melancon signed with the San Francisco Giants for 4 years, $62 million. 

[mazeville]

 

From La Velle's piece:

 

--But there's no rush here to move Dozier. If the Twins don't like the names they are hearing, they can hold on to Dozier and see who caves at the trade deadline.--

 

I think La Velle somehow forgot about Dozier's first two regrettable months last year. Dozier's 1st half/2nd half splits tend to be monumental and you never know which end is going to be the hot one. That doesn't make for a risk I'm overly comfortable taking, and I'm generally a risk taker when it comes to stuff like this.

 

Unless the offers are genuinely lopsided against the Twins right now, Brian Dozier is NOT a guy I'm going into the year with assuming I'll be able to trade him for better value in July. Clearly they weren't blown away with offers last July.

 

I generally agree with this. If I'm the Twins I probably trade him. But I certainly make it SOUND to other teams like I'm perfectly happy going into the season with him in a Twins uniform because desperate sellers get worse deals.

 

That said, in trading Dozier the Twins will open up a hole at shortstop, potentially, in that Polanco will move to second and then you're counting on Escobar who may or may not be a decent player at this point. So you definitely want a good return, without question.

 

But yeah, Dozier's notorious in-season inconsistency makes me want to trade him this offseason. And his value won't get any higher.

[Baseball Bat]

From a fan standpoint, I think it is fair to show a strong eagerness to want to move Dozier. He is coming off a career year that will likely never be repeated, and he is entering his age 30 season with 2 years remaining on a team friendly deal in his prime. He almost certainly does not fit into the Twins long-term plans after 2018, so he really should be moved when his value is at his peak (this offseason). Personally, I think it would be a big mistake to not move him this offseason, unless the market for him is abnormally weak. 

 

However, from a team and front office standpoint I think Falvey and Levine are playing this exactly right. They cannot show a strong urgency to move Dozier because that alone diminishes his value. Players have higher values if the team they are currently on is fielding calls instead of vice versa. If the front office shows a strong urgency then that turns into desperation and other teams are smart enough to sense that. That is why I take articles like LaVelle's with a grain of salt because what else is the front office supposed to be saying? I am sure Falvey and Levine would absolutely love to move Dozier for a pair of top prospects as they seem much more keen on capturing maximum return while it is there than Terry Ryan ever was. That type of deal takes time as the market has to take shape before they can get a couple of teams in a bidding war. Bidding wars are key to someone eventually overpaying for a player. Players like Dozier are historically where teams end up overpaying. Players in their prime, coming off career years, and on team friendly deals. It might just take time and I am excited to see how this week takes shape. It is definitely a positive that Jon Heyman is reporting 4 to 5 teams being in on Dozier to maybe drive up the asking price a bit. 

[clone52]

 

Sure would be nice if the Twins were in on the Chris Sale talks. He would be hard to get with the asking price but I think the Twins have the players and prospects to pull it off.
I would do Eddie Rosario, Brian Dozier, Santiago and Jose Berrios for Chris Sale, and a shortstop prospect. Yes I would do it for only the two years of team control. This team desperately need's an Ace that will set everyone else up.
To me Chris Sale is like Johan Santana was a dominant front line starter. He would set up Phil Hughes and our current Ervin Santana to be a top notch three starters deep rotation.
You need three starters deep with a true Ace to win in this league.

 

I don't think your offer comes even close to getting Sale.  The White Sox are rebuilding.  They might want Dozier just to trade him again, but otherwise, they wouldn't want him at all.  My guess is any Twins offer would have to include Buxton and/or Sano along with Berrios.

[nicksaviking]

 

Sure would be nice if the Twins were in on the Chris Sale talks. He would be hard to get with the asking price but I think the Twins have the players and prospects to pull it off.
I would do Eddie Rosario, Brian Dozier, Santiago and Jose Berrios for Chris Sale, and a shortstop prospect. Yes I would do it for only the two years of team control. This team desperately need's an Ace that will set everyone else up.
To me Chris Sale is like Johan Santana was a dominant front line starter. He would set up Phil Hughes and our current Ervin Santana to be a top notch three starters deep rotation.
You need three starters deep with a true Ace to win in this league.

 

I don't think removing those four and adding Sale makes the Twins a playoff team in 2017. Even if you took Sale off of the White Sox last year, that was still likely a better team than the Twins have now. I'd rather look for an ace when the team is ready to win, assuming they didn't already find one. Chris Sale on a couple of more .500 or worse teams doesn't get me excited.

 

Also, I can't see the White Sox having any interest in taking on Santiago's salary and they'd likely just look to flip Dozier, which in all likelihood would mean a three team trade where the prospects the Twins get for Dozier go to the White Sox.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I don't think you have to be as generous as my initial offer, but I think the White Sox would have some interest in doing a Dozier, and Berrios trade for Chris Sale.

In addition to the comments above, Jose Berrios isn't exactly a hot commodity right now.  He still has value, of course, but he's not going to contribute to a major trade package at the moment like Jose De Leon or Dansby Swanson, or some other top prospect not coming off an 8.02 ERA season.

 

For that matter, I'm not sure how much value 2 years of Brian Dozier would offer the White Sox -- they already have a couple average-ish guys in the middle infield.  The only way Dozier makes any sense is if they are going for it in 2017-2018, in which case trading Sale doesn't make any sense.  If they are going for it in 2017-2018, it would make much more sense to keep Sale and try patching the black holes on their roster, like catcher, CF, and the back of the rotation.  (Arguably that's what they have been trying to do the last few years -- the Sale talks are an indication they are willing to break from that to rebuild with an elite prospect package.)