Article: Arbitration Decisions Looming

[Seth Stohs]

December is upon us. If you’re from the Upper Midwest, you have recently felt winter’s wrath. Some have had more snow than others. Some have had freezing rain. And temperatures have finally fallen. The calendar has changed. Baseball’s Hot Stove is upon us.

 

December 1st was the deadline for reaching a new Collective Bargaining Agreement. On Wednesday evening, news came out that the players and the owners had reached an agreement on a new, five-year deal. There has not been a work stoppage in MLB since games resumed early in the 1995 season. It’s good to know it’s not something we need to worry about again until (at least) after the 2021 season.

 

On Sunday night, executives from nearly all of the professional baseball teams - Major League, Minor League, Independent teams and more - will head to Houston. On Monday, baseball’s annual Winter Meetings will commence. You’ll definitely want to keep up with Twins Daily for any trade rumors or transactions. And you’ll want to familiarize yourself with our Free Agent Tracker.Before then, the Twins have one more decision to make. On Friday night (December 2), teams need to determine whether or not to offer their arbitration-eligible players a contract for 2017. The Twins have to make that decision on five more players and the decisions aren’t necessarily as easy as we might think.

 

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If you haven’t already downloaded the Twins Daily Offseason Handbook, now is the right time! In its 57 pages, there is a chapter written by Nick on the arbitration-eligibles. There is also a lot of information on free agents, some trade scenarios and some special stories written by the Twins Daily founders. So download the Offseason Handbooktoday. It’s FREE, or you can choose whatever price you would like.

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Of course, in the Handbook you’ll notice that there are six players that the Twins needed to make an arbitration decision on. Now there are just five. Two weeks ago, the Twins made their decision on 3B Trevor Plouffe. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine outrighted the veteran, thus removing him from the 40-man roster. When he cleared waivers, he became a free agent.

 

Here are the five players that Falvey and Levine still have to make the decision on, or at least make those decisions official.

 

STARTING PITCHERS

 

HECTOR SANTIAGO

The left-hander came to the Twins at the July trade deadline in exchange for Alex Meyer and Ricky Nolasco. He really struggled in his first month with the Twins, then pitched pretty mediocrely in September. He was an All-Star in 2015. From 2012-2015, he posted ERAs between 3.30 and 3.75. He made 33 starts in 2016 and threw 182 innings. He will turn 29 in two weeks.

 

2016 Salary - $5.0 million,

Twins Daily Projection for 2017 - $8.0 million.

MLB Trade Rumors Projection for 2017 - $8.6 million

 

KYLE GIBSON

The right-hander was the Twins Pitcher of the Year in 2015 when he went 11-11 with a 3.84 ERA in 194.2 innings. He fought a shoulder injury in 2016 and fell to 6-11 with a 5.07 ERA. The Twins first-round pick in 2009 turned 29 since the season ended.

 

2016 Salary - approximately $0.55 million

Twins Daily Projection for 2017 - $2.5 million

MLB Trade Rumors Projection for 2017 - $3.5 million

 

These two starters would typically both be easy choices to bring back.Under a previous regime, both would have been obvious choices to tender. However, with Falvey and Levine, it’s hard to know what their thoughts are on these veterans. We also don’t know what their blueprint is for the offseason, what they would hope to do in free agency, and who they might try to acquire in a trade (specifically a Brian Dozier trade). It all ties together, but I would personally bring back both because having depth at starting pitcher, quality depth, is a good thing.

 

RELIEF PITCHERS

 

BRANDON KINTZLER

The former St. Paul Saints pitcher spent parts of 2010 through 2015 in the big leagues with the Brewers. He missed most of 2015 with a knee injury. The Twins signed him to a minor league contract a year ago. He spent a month in Rochester before coming up and becoming the Twins most reliable reliever. He even did well as the team’s closer.

 

2016 Salary - $1.1 million

Twins Daily Projection for 2017 - $2.5 million

MLB Trade Rumors Projection for 2017 - $2.2 million

 

RYAN PRESSLY

The Twins selected Pressly out of the Red Sox organization in the 2012 Rule 5 draft. He spent all of 2013 with the big league club - as per the Rule 5 rules. He was in the minor leagues in 2014 until late July. He was pitching very well in 2015 until an injury shut down his season in early July. He was one of the most used relievers in the league in 2016. He touches 98 and 99 and has a good breaking ball. He will turn 28 years old in two weeks.

 

2016 Salary - approximately $0.55 million

Twins Daily Projection for 2017 - $1.5 million

MLB Trade Rumors Projection for 2017 - $1.1 million

 

The Twins have a lot of relief pitchers in the upper levels of the minor leagues, names we’ve been reading and hearing about for a couple of years. They’ll get there at some point. Glen Perkins is under contract, and he’ll likely be back at some point in 2017. But at the end of the day, these two are easy decisions to add because Kintzler has been reliable when healthy, and Pressly still has a lot of potential.

 

HITTERS

 

EDUARDO ESCOBAR

After playing very well in 2014 and 2015 once given an everyday gig, Escobar was the shortstop heading into the 2016 season. Unfortunately for him, he was hurt very early in the season and when he returned Eduardo Nunez had taken off. Escobar was back on the bench and was unable to get things going. Escobar will turn 28 in early January.

 

2016 Salary - $2.15 million

Twins Daily Projection for 2017 - $3.5 million

MLB Trade Rumors Projection for 2017 - $2.9 million

 

Will Brian Dozier be back? Depending on that, where will Jorge Polanco play. With no Plouffe, how much can they rely upon Miguel Sano at third base? Having a solid veteran who can play three infield positions, including shortstop, will be very important.

 

 

So there you have it. The five players that the Twins need to either tender or non-tender a contract to by Friday night are mentioned above. Discuss below what you think the Twins should do in each case. Be sure to explain why.

 

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[Oldgoat_MN]

I believe they will all be tendered contracts and I believe they should be tendered contracts.

 

I know some will say we should let go of Santiago, but he has been an above average pitcher from 2011 through 2015 and our depth just took a potential hit as we leave Baxendale and Wheeler open to the Rule 5 draft.

 

I know Hector is not a top of the rotation pitcher, but let's not forget our Voltaire ("The perfect is the enemy of the good"). 

 

Letting guys like Santiago go is how a team winds up with guys like Albers and Dean as the starting pitchers in MLB games.

[Cory Engelhardt]

I can be swayed either way on Gibson and Escobar. I know the previous regime had a lot of pull with Gibson (they drafted him) and I know that Escobar is an easy call if he is healthy. But man, they certainly didn't do anything last year to make anyone think that a full bounce back is in the cards.

 

I could also see Santiago being traded for a non top 100 A ball pitcher with any level of upside before Friday. He is certainly a better option as a #5 starter than, say, Andrew Albers or Pat Dean, but if the Twins need an emergency starter this year they will have Mejia/Gonsalves et al including anyone they acquire in trades.

 

I think Kintzler and Pressly are easy adds. They don't make much, and you can always trade bullpen arms. Pressly's slider spin rate is almost as high as Andrew Miller's, and if he starts to throw it 35-40% of the time, he will be much more difficult to hit.

[ashbury]

Santiago is the only hard choice to tender. If you had a 25-man roster of players getting what Kintzler will get, for instance, your total payroll would be down in Rays/Marlins/A's territory. A team of Kyle Gibsons would still be below $100M in pay. A team full of Santiagos, by contrast, would be up in the Large Market world. Not that that's how to evaluate payrolls, merely a back-of-the-envelope way of looking at it.

 

It depends on whether the front office can find a better use for that $8+ million. My suspicion is that they can, but I don't have a specific recommendation myself. (I'd probably combine it with other savings such as Plouffe, and use it to pay for the salary of a better starting pitcher I'd go after in trade. But maybe the front office bean counters already feel they combined Plouffe and Suzuki money to sign Castro.)

 

I'm probably most bothered that this kind of money gets us a guy who can succeed only when he nibbles. It looked like Neil Allen talked him into throwing strikes after he came over to the Twins, and Hector got pounded. When he went back to walking guys, he did somewhat better. That's not an asset I would pay a lot to have. I'm also not encouraged that Allen's first attempt at tinkering backfired on this pitcher - is there any reason to think Allen will find the key to unlocking hidden riches on his second try?

 

But the team is not strapped for cash, as the payroll limit they seem to have set for themselves is pretty arbitrary. Paying Santiago should not really bar them from any moves they would like to make. So I won't get mad if that's what happens. But, he won't be much of a mid-season trade chip; at that salary he will be overpriced (unless he steps up his game, in which case the Twins won't want to trade him), and his next team will face the same off-season decision, so no one will give much to get him. He's not fungible. If the Twins tender him, they are stuck with him.

[mazeville]

I tender all of them.

 

Santiago is the big decision because he'll be expensive and was not very good last year. But he has a good track record based on typical numbers and you can't get enough pitching. 

 

I might consider trading him in the right circumstances - adding him, say, to Dozier in a trade to the Dodgers or another team, for instance. But I definitely tender Santiago.

 

Everyone else is a no-brainer. 

[Vanimal46]

I'd tender everyone except Kintzler. He did well last year, but I'm having flashbacks of Casey Fien thinking about him. I'd rather give the spot to one of the awesome RP prospects we've been waiting for the last 2 years. 

[laloesch]

Ideally I'd like to see management let Santiago and Gibson go.  Santiago is consistently mediocre.  Gibson crashed last season.  The good news is that they are not tied to them long term (yet).  So I don't take too big of an issue to tendering them contracts as long as they don't block other prospects.  

[wavedog]

I would tender all given this outsider's opinion.  Depending on your thoughts on pitch-framing - Castro and Murphy/Garver should help Santiago nibble better and could also help Gibson as well.  Kintzler and Pressly are inexpensive for what they can provide.  Barring other trades or signings, Escobar is a need - he can fill-in at 3B or SS and is probably the best SS on the roster.   Unless the new regime has a trade or signing that brings in a SS - Escobar needs to be retained.   

[DocBauer]

Kintzler is the only question mark for me. I've been advocating signing one of a few bounce back potential closer options and still believe it's a good idea; shores up the pen, buys time for the prospects, helps the Twins actually win the games theyou can, may be flippable, etc. I don't think you need/keep Kintzler if this is the case. But then again, doubt this happens quickly enough.

 

Escobar is a yes, He showed what he is/may be capable of in 2014-15 and could be a solid everyday SS for now, or a high quality utility guy.

 

Pressly showed me enough to believe he will be solid if not overworked. Also a pair of yes's to Gibson and Santiago. Unless/until a Dozier trade we need the arms and we can afford them. Gibson's previous two seasons were solid. I know Santiago pitched lousy when he first came over, and is no savior, but his previous three seasons were solid with an all star appearance mixed in. For now, at least, we need arms. There can be trades made later if we, gulp, actually find ourselves with depth via Hughes, May, Berrios, traded for TBD, etc.

[mikelink45]

The test of the Twins new front office is to have a list like this in the future look like players every team would want, not just fillers for the poorest team in baseball.  The level these players represent is the fifth starter, bottom of the bullpen, and last seat on the bench, but for now the questions are - do we have anyone better?  Are they blocking a prospect?  If not sign them and start the trade packages and planning for the future. 

[Loosey]

I would non-tender Santiago.  Not because I think he is expensive or bad, but because I don't think he will be a part of this team when they are ready to contend.  I would use the money on a longer-term asset if one is available now.  He will only get more expensive year after year.

 

Non-Tender him, make a trade or sign a piece that could be here for next 3-4 years.

[HitInAPinch]

I am up in the air on Santiago and Gibson.  Winning wise, I see not much beyond a couple +- .500 pitchers.  If there are not much in starting pitching ready in the MiLB for the beginning of the season,  I'd keep Santiago and Gibson for the only thing they seem capable of:  innings eaters.

 

Of the rest:  Definitely keep Escobar.  Probably the starting SS.   Probably keep Kinsler.  Had a good year last year; suffered some with over use at end of the season.  Pressly:  No.  At 28 he has potential? 

 

[Dantes929]

From 2012-2015, he posted ERAs between 3.30 and 3.75.    5 of his last 7 starts were quality.    He was mediocre in 2015 but the prior 3 years are certainly upper middle of rotation numbers.    We have the payroll room, he may be a tradeable asset and I don't think there are 5 starters that are better than him.   I really liked the perfection is the enemy of good quote.  Its part of the reason we lost Liriano.     He wasn't the ace some thought he could or should be so he was written off..

[Mr. Brooks]

The test of the Twins new front office is to have a list like this in the future look like players every team would want, not just fillers for the poorest team in baseball. The level these players represent is the fifth starter, bottom of the bullpen, and last seat on the bench, but for now the questions are - do we have anyone better? Are they blocking a prospect? If not sign them and start the trade packages and planning for the future.

Just about every team's arbitration list is back of the roster guys.

If you are a player every team would want, you get a contract extension before, or shortly into arbitration years.

[Thrylos]

I'd try to trade all of them really hard right now, in conjunction with a Dozier and a Santana trade.  If there are no takers (and there should be based on the price for pitching), I'd non-tender Santiago (I'd rather see what Mejia can do) and Kintzler (who is blocking a whole bunch of arms) and think hard about whether I can find better replacements within the organization for Escobar (Goodrum?).  I'd give Pressly (who is not the worst reliever on the 40-man, Tonkin, Boshers, Kintzler. Perkins are) and Gibson one more chance just because, unlike the rest of the bunch, have some upwards potential

[d-mac]

Isn't the opportunity to non-tender Santiago the reason we traded away Alex Meyer? Why in the world would any team pay Santiago $8+ mil to a pitcher with a career 4.78 xFIP and hasn't even had a sub 5.00 xFIP since 2014? I doubt he'd get that on the open market. Personally, I think non-tendering him is a no-brainer.

 

The only defensible reason I could see for keeping him around would be if they plan on trading Ervin this offseason and want some extra depth. Even then I'd probably still be against it. 

[Rosterman]

It all depends if they think Santiago is worth $8 or is there another pitcher out there for the same (or less) that MIGHT just give you more. Gibson you can stomach, because you need the depth. Kintzler and Press are both good set-up men and cheap for the short-term and you pretty much know what to expect. Yes, the Escobar situation can hinge on Dozier, but unless you truly need the roster spot, he is a possible flip player. Any otehr team would grab him for roughly that amount to be a backup.

 

None of them have any trade value at the moment. Gibson NEEDS to pitch well...and then I would dangle him out there in mid-season.

 

Santiago is a big question. Personally, I would go forward and NOT offer him arbitration. I doubt he would sign with the Twins then for less or even a multi-year, which he probably would get from anyone else. The evils of arbitration. A gamble on worth now. And he ahs done nothing FOR THE TWINS in the past to deserve a higher reward.

 

Plouffe WOULD'VE DESERVED the higher reward but became a subject of no place to play in the grand scheme of things (I would rather have kept Plouffe over Mauer at this point BECAUSE Plouffe could play first/DH and third, as well as the outfield in a pinch...for $8 million he would've been an expensive utility player, though).

[Danchat]

 

I'd tender everyone except Kintzler. He did well last year, but I'm having flashbacks of Casey Fien thinking about him. I'd rather give the spot to one of the awesome RP prospects we've been waiting for the last 2 years. 

Flashbacks of the 2-3 good seasons Fien had, maybe? It makes no sense to give up on Kintzler when his value is the highest. If he pitches like he did last year, then the Twins should move him at the deadline for a prospect or two. If he turns into 2016 Fien, then say goodbye midseason.

 

I've also had a change of heart about Santiago... since there are virtually no talented starters on the free agent market, I guess they should hand $8M to Santiago and give him a rotation spot. Hopefully he will regress to the mean and match his career numbers, and maybe you could trade him midseason. If not, it's only a one year deal, and you move on.

Edited December 1, 2016 by Danchat

[Vanimal46]

 

Flashbacks of the 2-3 good seasons Fien had, maybe? It makes no sense to give up on Kintzler when his value is the highest. If he pitches like he did last year, then the Twins should move him at the deadline for a prospect or two. If he turns into 2016 Fien, then say goodbye midseason.

 

I've also had a change of heart about Santiago... since there are virtually no talented starters on the free agent market, I guess they should hand $8M to Santiago and give him a rotation spot. Hopefully he will regress to the mean and match his career numbers, and maybe you could trade him midseason. If not, it's only a one year deal, and you move on.

I'm having flashbacks of the same arguments we were making last year.... That being Fien is cheap and pitched well last year (last year being 2015), let's roll the dice again! 

Don't know this as fact, but I would assume that Kintzler was floated around as trade bait and no one was hooked. Though it's possible they didn't float him at all and wanted him on the team all season. 

[Mr. Brooks]

Flashbacks of the 2-3 good seasons Fien had, maybe? It makes no sense to give up on Kintzler when his value is the highest. If he pitches like he did last year, then the Twins should move him at the deadline for a prospect or two. If he turns into 2016 Fien, then say goodbye midseason.

 

I've also had a change of heart about Santiago... since there are virtually no talented starters on the free agent market, I guess they should hand $8M to Santiago and give him a rotation spot. Hopefully he will regress to the mean and match his career numbers, and maybe you could trade him midseason. If not, it's only a one year deal, and you move on.

Regression to the mean would likely mean matching his xFIP- which would be a bad thing.

I think it would be more accurate to say that we need to hope he defies regression to the mean as he did in 12 through 15.

[Mike Sixel]

I'd probably tender them all, but I understand why some would not tender Kintzler or Santiago. That said, if you think you are trading ESan....you tender Santiago for sure, imo.

 

I think Kintzler is replaceable from the minors....and I'd roll those dice this year.

 

Giving up on Gibson, imo, is silly. He has talent. Give Allen 1 more year to fix him. It's not like there are tons of other options. 

[jimmer]

Ugh, Gibson...

[Mr. Brooks]

I'd probably tender them all, but I understand why some would not tender Kintzler or Santiago. That said, if you think you are trading ESan....you tender Santiago for sure, imo.

 

I think Kintzler is replaceable from the minors....and I'd roll those dice this year.

 

Giving up on Gibson, imo, is silly. He has talent. Give Allen 1 more year to fix him. It's not like there are tons of other options.

As you know, I'm not a believer in Gibson. Never was, even during his 15 season.

But yeah, his tender price is so insanely low for a starting pitcher that I think you have to bring him back.

If he had the $8 million tag, I'd say it's an easy non tender.

[bcs4]

I'd be more than willing to have all of them back if it weren't for the Twins unwillingness to eat salary and release players that aren't contributing.  I don't want to see dead weight plugging up the pipeline.  

 

I would love to see the new management bring up new prospects a bit more quickly and let them play with less micromanagement such as what they did to Barrios (letting Bert and seemingly anyone else just walking by to give advice, and actually making a pretty major change in how far he brought his right hand behind his back), and their great need to force them to learn to bunt (used way too much), hit to opposite fields (one of the biggest fallacies in the Twins organization), and reduce Ks significantly (Ks don't matter nearly as much as other stats).  

 

If you give a kid too much to think about, you're going to screw him up. Their main concern should be to make them as comfortable as they can be in their transition.

[Physics Guy]

I really don't understand the hate on Gibson.    In 2014/15 he was a 2.3/2.5 fWAR and 2.0/3.2 bWAR player.    While that isn't great, he's still a solid starter.    He stunk in 2016, but also wasn't healthy.    He will still be cheap, so I see no reason to non-tender him.    In my opinion, he still has some upside and they would be crazy to cut bait on him.

Edited December 1, 2016 by Physics Guy

[Darius]

I believe they will all be tendered contracts and I believe they should be tendered contracts.

 

I know some will say we should let go of Santiago, but he has been an above average pitcher from 2011 through 2015 and our depth just took a potential hit as we leave Baxendale and Wheeler open to the Rule 5 draft.

 

I know Hector is not a top of the rotation pitcher, but let's not forget our Voltaire ("The perfect is the enemy of the good").

 

Letting guys like Santiago go is how a team winds up with guys like Albers and Dean as the starting pitchers in MLB games.

Is Santiago really that much better than Albers or Dean?

 

Either way, you're not winning a whole lot of you have any of the 3 throwing significant innings.

[Darius]

I really don't understand the hate on Gibson. In 2014/15 he was a 2.3/2.5 fWAR and 2.0/3.2 bWAR player. While that isn't great, he's still a solid starter. He stunk in 2016, but also wasn't healthy. He will still be cheap, so I see no reason to non-tender him. In my opinion, he still has some upside and they would be crazy to cut bait on him.

Agreed. If he gets healthy and his stats regress a little (to the mean), he's one of the best options this team could hope to have at this point.

[laloesch]

 

Ugh, Gibson...

The good news is that he's ARB-1 this season and technically not a free agent until 2020.  That said he's gonna start getting real expensive soon.  He better step up.

[DocBauer]

Is Santiago really that much better than Albers or Dean?

Either way, you're not winning a whole lot of you have any of the 3 throwing significant innings.

Just off the cuff my answer would be yes. I know wins and ERA don't tell the entire story, but Santiago actually has some quality ML experience and some decent numbers, far superior to Dean or Albers. Is he a long term solution? I would say absolutely not.

 

But we don't know about Hughes at this point. I think the world of Berrios and his potential as well as his future, but he's still young and getting his feet on the ground. I feel good about a HEALTHY May. But we don't know for sure if Santana will be kept, or traded now or during the season. Same for Dozier. Mejia isn't probably ready just yet, nor is Gonsalves. Our other prospects will be in AA and AAA to begin the season. We need starters for now, options, and during ST, or before depending in trades, or during the season someone like Santiago may be moveable.

[jimmer]

Agreed. If he gets healthy and his stats regress a little (to the mean), he's one of the best options this team could hope to have at this point.

IMO, that speaks more to the horrible state of our rotation and our current farm system than it is an endorsement of Gibson.