Seattle gives up on Alex Jackson

[gunnarthor]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/11/braves-acquire-alex-jackson.html

 

Strange trade.  Seattle got a couple arms back for Jackson, the 6th overall pick right behind Nick Gordon.  Jackson has really struggled in the low minors (.233/.327/.399 combined).  He'll be 21 next season and likely remain in A ball. Seattle gets back low ceiling but fairly decent arms.  I guess Atlanta is betting on Jackson but I'm surprised they gave up even that much for him.  

[Vanimal46]

103 strikeouts in 381 plate appearances for Jackson.... Sounds familiar for us Twins fans. I guess I can see why both teams wanted to take this risk. 

[Willihammer]

Wonder if the Braves will try moving him back to C.

[gunnarthor]

Fangraphs write up here ---> http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scouting-the-prospects-in-the-alex-jackson-deal/

 

The hot take on Jackson "With parts of three pro seasons now under his belt, Jackson’s stock has tanked. He was held back in extended spring training to start the year for performance reasons. His body has developed poorly and some of the quick-twitch elements of his swing have disappeared. Questions about Jackson’s makeup have been circulating since he signed."  

 

I can see Atlanta's side here - put him back behind the plate and maybe we have a nice steal - but I guess I'd bet against it.

[KirbyDome89]

If I'm a Braves fan I'm excited by this move and as a Twins fan I'm jealous. They swapped two potential relief pitchers, one of whom might not have the fastball to even pitch out of the bullpen, for the 6th overall pick in the 2014 draft. Jackson has struggled but he has less than 2 years of professional baseball under his belt. Even if he completely flames out this year Atlanta isn't out much; this is a good gamble for the Braves.  

[Mike Sixel]

I like the gamble on upside a lot more than the Seattle end....but I can't fault Seattle for making this trade...

[nicksaviking]

I'll put my money on none of us remembering this move in four years.

 

This looks to me like the Twins trading Anthony Swarzak and Kyle Waldrop for Donovan Tate. That happened right?

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'll put my money on none of us remembering this move in four years.

 

This looks to me like the Twins trading Anthony Swarzak and Kyle Waldrop for Donovan Tate. That happened right?

 

Oh, I agree on that....

[Otto von Ballpark]

Jackson has been a disappointment so far, but he's not a BJ Garbe level bust yet or anything.  A 120 wRC+ in his first full season of A ball last year at age 20, 140 in a partial season of A- last year.

 

If he adds some positional versatility, he could be on a MLB track.  Successfully switching back to catcher would be huge for that.  Still pretty unlikely, but the Braves didn't give up much to take that chance -- in fact, they have freed up a 40-man roster spot to use somewhere else.  (And Jackson, like Nick Gordon, will not require a 40-man spot for another 2 seasons.)

 

[gunnarthor]

 

Jackson has been a disappointment so far, but he's not a BJ Garbe level bust yet or anything.  A 120 wRC+ in his first full season of A ball last year at age 20, 140 in a partial season of A- last year.

 

If he adds some positional versatility, he could be on a MLB track.  Successfully switching back to catcher would be huge for that.  Still pretty unlikely, but the Braves didn't give up much to take that chance -- in fact, they have freed up a 40-man roster spot to use somewhere else.  (And Jackson, like Nick Gordon, will not require a 40-man spot for another 2 seasons.)

Actually, Garbe put up similar numbers as a 20 year old in A+ with a lot less strike outs.  Not sure what his wRC+ would have been.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Actually, Garbe put up similar numbers as a 20 year old in A+ with a lot less strike outs.  Not sure what his wRC+ would have been.

A .659 OPS is similar to a .740 OPS?  For context, I know Garbe was in the FSL, but it looks like Garbe had a higher league OPS too (.697 vs .672).  Admittedly A+ is a step above A, but it does appear that Jackson has shown some power skill so far that Garbe never demonstrated.

[gunnarthor]

 

A .659 OPS is similar to a .740 OPS?  For context, I know Garbe was in the FSL, but it looks like Garbe had a higher league OPS too (.697 vs .672).  Admittedly A+ is a step above A, but it does appear that Jackson has shown some power skill so far that Garbe never demonstrated.

Yeah, Jackson had a few more extra base hits but their avg/obp were pretty close and Garbe showed much better bb/k ratios while playing in more games.  I think that's fairly comparable.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Yeah, Jackson had a few more extra base hits but their avg/obp were pretty close and Garbe showed much better bb/k ratios while playing in more games.  I think that's fairly comparable.

Prorated to Garbe's PA, Jackson had 44 XBH to Garbe's 24.  15 HR to Garbe's 6.  That's a pretty massive advantage, no?  And a similar difference in their age-19 seasons.  And Jackson didn't lose that playing time due to health, his team chose to hold him back in extended spring training.

 

Part of Garbe's better K rate is also due to his era -- his league's K rate was 3.4% lower than Jackson's league K rate.  Although Garbe still has an advantage in that department, it's not as big as a straight comparison would suggest.  (Likewise in BB%, while Jackson trails Garbe slightly, he actually outpaces his league BB% by a slightly greater margin than Garbe too.)

 

Garbe was pushed a step further up the ladder those years, but still, I see some semblance of a skill (power) in Jackson's performance to date. Obviously not enough to put him on a MLB track alone, but something is better than nothing.

[biggentleben]

I know you all were on pins and needles awaiting my reaction.

 

There's really two levels to this trade. The first is Jackson. From a Braves perspective, I'm not exactly enthralled, though at the same time, this is the sort of deal they need to do - getting guys developed to the point of the cusp of the majors and flipping them for high-upside talent if they're not "needed" at the MLB level.

 

Alex Jackson makes Austin Riley look like he has a quick bat. Jackson has good bat speed once his bat is in the zone, but he's had extremely long load and over-exaggerated follow through, attempting to add loft that was added since high school, when he did legit have an incredibly fast bat.

 

He's added significant build from the time he was in high school in his legs due to his ability to do such while being in the outfield. That will be a ROUGH thing to transition to catcher. That move would likely end up a very long-term process to first get his body right, then to learn the nuances of professional catching, then get the bat at a point of being major league ready. You're not looking at seeing him before 2020 on that plan.

 

If you're down on Braxton Davidson, you should absolutely not like Alex Jackson. Same draft class. Braxton is 6 months younger. Braxton has played two years in full season ball, finishing in high-A this year. Jackson has never made it above low-A.

 

Braxton: .224/.344/.360, .136 ISO, .120 OBP delta, 0.39 BB/K in high A at 19 (turned 20 in June)
Jackson: .243/.332/.408, .165 ISO, .089 OBP delta, 0.33 BB/K in low A at 20

[biggentleben]

Now, getting into Whalen and Povse. I'm not as high as most on Povse because I've seen a lot of him, and the stats lie on him. He keeps it in the zone, sure, but he has the issue that most guys have at his height of repeating his mechanics. When he misses his spots in his mechanics, he drags his arm to keep the ball in the zone, but that kills any movement he has. He got lucky this season in that he seemed to have a TON of balls hit right to fielders (not to mention in AA having one of the two "outfield of no falling hits" in the Braves system).

 

Whalen hurts. I had a great DM convo with him last night where he thanked me for the kind words over the last year and good conversation. I want guys like Whalen on the Braves. Guys who put in the time, the effort, above and beyond, to get on the field and do what they can to help the team. His entire offseason (which started last year in SEPTEMBER, not November like most) was spent working hard to be in the best physical shape of his life and to bring more to the table than just his physical tools. He talked about watching milb.tv all offseason and studying hitters. We laughed about how I scout that way, and he gave me some great player perspective on what I can catch that a scout at the game doesn't through my way of scouting and where the holes are in my scouting.

 

Whalen is a guy whose mind is absolutely his best tool. Great work ethic, great attitude, thinking on the mound about how to attack each hitter and plotting his plan starting as soon as he's done with his previous start through video work and study on the lineup of his next opponent. He's worked with coaches on how his grips can produce different movement, effectively giving him 8 pitches to use, 2 types of fastballs, 2 variations of his curve, 2 variations of his slider, and 2 variations on his change, all based on his grip. He was also working on a pure cut fastball this offseason to add into things. Rob told me when Joseph Odom got to Mississippi, he met with Whalen and asked about what he threw. When Whalen kept going and going, Odom said, "Rob, I only have 5 fingers to put down!"

 

I'll admit if/when I'm wrong on Whalen, but we saw with Kyle Hendricks (who honestly has lesser raw stuff than Whalen, but sequences and locates to play his stuff up well as well) how a guy with Whalen's profile can have elite-level success even in the modern game. No one's calling him Maddux, but there's plenty of room in the game for guys who know how to pitch rather than just throw, and Whalen is absolutely one of those.