Article: Dozier Trade Talk Heating Up?

[Thrylos]

 

Runs, slug, RBI, and HRs are pretty much improving every year, while BA and OBP pretty much has remained the same.  If you mean erratic as in his stats are changing every year, then yes they ar,.  They're getting better. 

 

Hate to say this before they trade him, but the one number that is unsustainable and begs for regression is his HR/FB (and you better look at it in monthly splits, because Dozier's first half in 2016 was pretty lukewarm)

 

[jimmer]

 

Hate to say this before they trade him, but the one number that is unsustainable and begs for regression is his HR/FB (and you better look at it in monthly splits, because Dozier's first half in 2016 was pretty lukewarm)

that and the fact runs and RBI are not solely a function of what he does but what his teammates do in conjunction with what he does.  shouldn't look at those numbers and conclude anything about the player's talent.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Runs, slug, RBI, and HRs are pretty much improving every year, while BA and OBP pretty much has remained the same.  If you mean erratic as in his stats are changing every year, then yes they ar,.  They're getting better.  I guess I'm just not understanding who these multiple players will be.  You do understand that the more prospects that we get for a player, the lower average quality they will be, right?  Maybe you could pick a team and make up a package that you think is a fair trade?

 

I mean erratic because he's a borderline bench player for two months and then out of his mind for 3 months.  And we've seen two years of that.   

 

I want a headline piece and one or two other pieces back in the deal.  And I hope that headline piece is a pitcher, but I'll take any blue chipper. 

 

Let me make this clear: It is highly unlikely that Dozier will be here when we are next contending unless he's an overpaid, declining talent into his 30s.  So deal him now, at peak value, or regret it later.  That's really as simple as it is.  

 

I can't understand the mentality of sit around and wait for this 103 loss team to just transform into a contender.  That's not how it works.

Edited November 29, 2016 by TheLeviathan

[bcs4]

 

Vargas is 26, doesn't play good D,  had a horrible 2015, only had one good month this year (in 18 games) and then reverted back to 2015.  I don't think much of him.

 

Palka is a K machine and doesn't get on base. I don't consider him any kind of prospect and he's certainly not a top 10 Twins prospect (and our farm system isn't exactly heavy in elite prospects.

 

Neither of the above are anywhere near Bellinger.

 

I didn't consider Sano because he's not a 1B prospect.  He may end up there (more likely DH), but he hasn't yet.  Also, he's not a prospect anymore.  He lost his rookie status in 2015 and then spent the whole year in the majors this year. He's a major leaguer.

 

I never said we should target Bellinger.  I'd LIKE it if we could get him, but I'm all about getting pitching for Dozier.  And I've given what I thought was a realistic trade package from the Dodgers. Bellinger wasn't in it (nor was Alvar

Palka hits more HR per AB, has a 1 point better BA, and 3 points less OBP, and Palka strikes out roughly 30% compared to Bellinger's  27%.  Almost identical.  Vargas hit HRs at a better pace than either Palka or Bellinger and his OBP was 40 points higher than either one.  His overall annualized MLB stats for last year were more productive than either Bellinger or Palka in the minors.  I didn't say you were targetting Bellinger.  You were implying that he was a better prospect than anything that the Twins had.  He just isn't.

[bcs4]

 

Dozier has NOT been on a steady incline in offensive production.

 

Dozier's 2014 was better than his 2015 and then 2016 was easily his best season.  He's at his peak right now. 

 

The time is NOW to trade him.

That's an interesting take on the stats, and trends. I guess I don't understand your definition of peaked.

 

 

[jimmer]

 

Palka hits more HR per AB, has a 1 point better BA, and 3 points less OBP, and Palka strikes out roughly 30% compared to Bellinger's  27%.  Almost identical.  Vargas hit HRs at a better pace than either Palka or Bellinger and his OBP was 40 points higher than either one.  His overall annualized MLB stats for last year were more productive than either Bellinger or Palka in the minors.  I didn't say you were targetting Bellinger.  You were implying that he was a better prospect than anything that the Twins had.  He just isn't.

Bellinger has only had a K% at 27% ONCE. In 2015 at age 20.  He hasn't been over 24% at any other time. So how is he at 27%?  He isn't. For his career, he's at 23.7%. Palka is at 31.3%

 

Bellinger when getting promoted dropped his K rate from 21% to 20%, raised his BB rate, and his numbers weren't helped by BABIP..  Palka struck out almost 40% of the time this year, his BB rate dropped, and his BABIP was like 40 points higher than Bellinger.

 

And, again, huge age difference.  Bellinger is much younger than Vargas and Palka and a quality defender, That has to be looked at too.

 

Those reasons, amongst others, are probably why Bellinger is one of the top prospects in baseball, and Palka doesn't sit in OUR top 10 list of prospects.  You may think Vargas and Palka compare favorably to Bellinger, but you're wrong.

Edited November 29, 2016 by jimmer

[jimmer]

 

That's an interesting take on the stats, and trends. I guess I don't understand your definition of peaked.

His WRC+ in 2014 was 117, in 2015 it was 102 and this year it was 132. That's not a steady increase. 132 is WAY higher than anything he's done and he just turned 30.  

Edited November 29, 2016 by jimmer

[bcs4]

 

I mean erratic because he's a borderline bench player for two months and then out of his mind for 3 months.  And we've seen two years of that.   

 

I want a headline piece and one or two other pieces back in the deal.  And I hope that headline piece is a pitcher, but I'll take any blue chipper. 

 

Let me make this clear: It is highly unlikely that Dozier will be here when we are next contending unless he's an overpaid, declining talent into his 30s.  So deal him now, at peak value, or regret it later.  That's really as simple as it is.  

 

I can't understand the mentality of sit around and wait for this 103 loss team to just transform into a contender.  That's not how it works. 

 

A war of 4 or 5 during those exact years takes the inconsistency into account.  We may just be missing each other if your talking about a real #3 pitcher with control for 2 or 3 years.  I'd be for that, but there aren't many teams that deep in pitching.

 

[bcs4]

 

Bellinger has only had a K% at 27% ONCE.  Hasn't been over 24% at any other time. And How is he at 27%?  He isn't.  Palka is at 31%

 

I like to look at most recent rates.  Bellinger when getting promoted dropped his K rate to 20%, raised his BB rate, and his numbers weren't helped by BABIP..  Palka struck out almost 40% of the time last year, his BB rate dropped, and his BABIP was like 40 points higher than Bellinger.

 

And, again, huge age difference.  Bellinger is much younger than Vargas and Palka and a quality defender, That has to be looked at too.

 

Those reasons, amongst others, are probably why Bellinger is one of the top prospects in baseball, and Palka doesn't sit in OUR top 10 list of prospects.  You may think Vargas and Palka compare favorably to Bellinger, but you're wrong.

I've been wrong before, but it's likely moot.  Sano will be playing 1B in 2018.

 

[jimmer]

 

I've been wrong before, but it's likely moot.  Sano will be playing 1B in 2018.

Maybe, or he'll DH if defense is somewhat important to the new bosses.

 

BTW, welcome to the boards.

Edited November 29, 2016 by jimmer

[bcs4]

 

His WRC+ in 2014 was 117, in 2015 it was 102 and this year it was 132. That's not a steady increase. 132 is WAY higher than anything he's done and he just turned 30.  

No trend line is straight.  Thirty is not that old.  There is no indication of a peak, but even if it flattens, he's much more valuable than some + pitching prospects, or some lesser position player with no fairly strong trends and a + pitching prospect. I would never say never, but they need to get a lot for him or it's just not a good trade.

[bcs4]

 

Maybe, or he'll DH if defense is somewhat important to the new bosses.

 

BTW, welcome to the boards.

Thanks for the welcome.  It's always good to talk with an educated Twins fan.

[jimmer]

 

No trend line is straight.  Thirty is not that old.  There is no indication of a peak, but even if it flattens, he's much more valuable than some + pitching prospects, or some lesser position player with no fairly strong trends and a + pitching prospect. I would never say never, but they need to get a lot for him or it's just not a good trade.

Well having a career year at age 30 usually means peak.  There are exceptions, but most position players start trending down on offense (and even more on defense) when they hit the 30s.

 

Doesn't matter if he's valuable for us for the next two years, we aren't going to be good.  Then he becomes a FA and if he's still good, goes somewhere else for more money and we get nothing back that's near MLB ready that WILL help us when we are good.

 

And if the idea is wait one more year before trading him, what if he trends back to more regular Dozier?  Still valuable, but now the gaining team only has one year of him and he DIDN'T just have a career year. 

 

We've been holding on to players at least one year too many for ages now, selling low or not selling at all.  Dozier, right now, is a great chip (so is Santana). Neither will be with us when we are a contender.  No point in keeping them when we can get players who will help us for many years.

 

Edited November 29, 2016 by jimmer

[Baseball Bat]

Give me Puig, De Leon, and Bellinger

[TheLeviathan]

 

A war of 4 or 5 during those exact years takes the inconsistency into account.  We may just be missing each other if your talking about a real #3 pitcher with control for 2 or 3 years.  I'd be for that, but there aren't many teams that deep in pitching.

 

I don't want to take a #3 pitcher.  I want a young player with upside.  Someone who could help transform this rotation.  We already have a #3 in Ervin Santana and we should be dealing him too.

 

I don't see next year as anything worth fussing over.  This team is too far away for that.  Deal the guys who are likely at peak value, who are old enough not to build around, and try to get some pieces that you can.

 

Keep Dozier and Santana and you can expect the next two years when you have them to be, at best, mediocre.  Deal them for the right players you can control for 6 or more years?  Now you have some hope to be better than that.

[Mike Sixel]

While I don't agree with bcs4....I love how he/she posts. passion and logic...

[shs_59]

Bellinger plus Verdugo and De Leon for

 

Dozier and Perkins ? who says no?

[nytwinsfan]

 

Bellinger plus Verdugo and De Leon for

 

Dozier and Perkins ? who says no?

The Dodgers do. No way they do that. I'd be thrilled with two of those three (assuming one is De Leon) for just Dozier.

Edited November 29, 2016 by nytwinsfan

[laloesch]

 

The Dodgers do. No way they do that. I'd be thrilled with two of those three (assuming one is De Leon) for just Dozier.

I don't think the Dodgers are going to give up De Leon or Julio Urias.

They would likely be willing to part ways with Frankie Montas and Grant Holmes.

Edited November 29, 2016 by laloesch

[Mike Sixel]

 

I don't think the Dodgers are going to give up De Leon or Julio Urias.

They would likely be willing to part ways with Frankie Montas and Grant Holmes.

 

They aren't getting a really good player back w/o giving up De Leon, or 4 others.....no way a team trades a player like Dozier w/o 1 great upside player (or lots of really good prospects). 

[Lonestar]

I don't think the Dodgers are going to give up De Leon or Julio Urias.

They would likely be willing to part ways with Frankie Montas and Grant Holmes.

They traded Montas and Holmes for Hill.

[nicksaviking]

 

They traded Montas and Holmes for Hill.

 

Who was a 36-year-old rental making the same amount Dozier is now.

 

Dozier should command far more.

[gunnarthor]

 

They traded Montas and Holmes for Hill.

Didn't the A's trade Reddick and Hill together?  They got 6 starts from Hill and 47 games from Reddick and gave up three pieces.  Grant Holmes (entered the season as BA #72 prospect although BP and mlbpipeline had him higher), Frankie Montes (entered the season as BA #95 prospect) but injured and Jharel Cotton (an undersized starter who made 5 solid starts for the A's last year). 

 

I think Dozier being both better and cheaper than the Reddick/Hill combo as well as having much more team control should be able to top that return.  

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Didn't the A's trade Reddick and Hill together?  They got 6 starts from Hill and 47 games from Reddick and gave up three pieces.  Grant Holmes (entered the season as BA #72 prospect although BP and mlbpipeline had him higher), Frankie Montes (entered the season as BA #95 prospect) but injured and Jharel Cotton (an undersized starter who made 5 solid starts for the A's last year). 

 

I think Dozier being both better and cheaper than the Reddick/Hill combo as well as having much more team control should be able to top that return.

 

I am therefore assuming that these trade ideas coalescing are slightly unrealistic, and the Twins would either need to part with a prospect themselves or eat part of a problem contract.

[gunnarthor]

 

I am therefore assuming that these trade ideas coalescing are slightly unrealistic, and the Twins would either need to part with a prospect themselves or eat part of a problem contract.

Why?  Dozier's contract is better and the trading team gets him longer.  Seems like the Twins should aim higher than the Hill/Reddick return.  

[nicksaviking]

 

I am therefore assuming that these trade ideas coalescing are slightly unrealistic, and the Twins would either need to part with a prospect themselves or eat part of a problem contract.

 

I don't think they would have to.

 

However throwing in a lesser prospect or eating some of Dozier's $12 million isn't a deal breaker for me if the Twins are getting back an elite prospect(s).

[Gheggs08]

I saw a report that the Cardinals were interested in Justin Turner and if they could sign him they would need to move Peralta. If we could move Dozier and slide Polanco to 2B we should go after Peralta, as I think he could be had for fairly cheap. Veteran leadership and a very sure handed SS. 

 

Thoughts?

Edited November 29, 2016 by Gheggs08

[gunnarthor]

I think the big disconnect seems to be what is Dozier worth going forward?  WAR is clunky as hell and teams have better internal stats but for back of the envelope math, it might work.  Dozier has two years left and I think any team trading for him would assume that he'll be worth at a minimum 6 WAR over the next two years.  (If a team thinks he'll fall off and be a 2 WAR player, they wouldn't trade for him).  But Dozier's been a pretty good player four years in a row now (3.7, 5.2, 2.5, 6.5).  So the team might think he's worth 8 or more WAR the next two years (or the Twins might and hold out accordingly).

 

It's hard to find trades that are comparable but there have been some strange trades the last few years.  The Astros traded quite a bit for 1.5 years of Gomez and 3.5 years of Fiers.  I don't know what the Astros expected but 8 WAR seems overly optimistic.  They also traded a crap ton for Ken Giles, a dominant closer with 4 years of control left and avg 2 WAR his first two years.  I'm not sure the WAR math works here since closer is very specialized but they probably didn't expect more than 8 WAR out of their end of the deal (although there could be non-WAR value in creating a strong back end bullpen).  The Royals traded Sean Manaea for half a season of Zorbrist.  

 

BA has a list of all trades made each year.  Here's the 2015 list.  But it does seem that teams trading away players have gotten some surprisingly strong returns the last few years for mere rentals.  (David Price and Zorbrist).  If the Twins are dealing with the Dodgers, they should certainly begin by asking for their top guys like Alvarez or Bellinger.  I'm not sure if they'll get them but there have been stranger trade returns.  I think that a respected national writer thinks Alveraz would have to go back is a good sign.

Edited November 29, 2016 by gunnarthor

[Loosey]

I still think the Twins should target pitching in return for Dozier.  HOWEVER, if they were to get Bellinger or a position player where we already have talent and depth I would be ok with it if they in turn are willing to flip either the incumbent or even Bellinger (or whoever they get) in return for areas of need like pitching.  Would a team needy on position prospects be willing to trade a young near major league ready pitcher for prospect like Bellinger or Kepler if the Twins decided to keep Bellinger in this scenario?

 

If so, i'd be on board.

[jimmer]

While I don't agree with bcs4....I love how he/she posts. passion and logic...

indeed