Article: Dozier Trade Talk Heating Up?

[zenser]

I would assume the Dodgers view Urias as untouchable, but it doesn't hurt to ask.  I am sure the Dodgers realize it will take a haul for Dozier so raise the bar high.  Then I wouldn't back down from my ideal return of DeLeon, Alverez, plus one of Buehler/Sheffield/Lux/Barnes.  Its not that I wouldn't like Bellinger or Puig, I would just rather have pitching.  In this case the Dodgers keep their best young pitcher and hitter, but the Twins get a haul in terms of pitching and maybe a wild card.  

[jimmer]

If the Twins are requiring DeLeon, Alvarez and Buehler/Sheffield/Lux/Barnes for two years of 30 year old Dozier, he isnt going to the Dodgers.

[mazeville]

 

Yes, Sano was a big factor, but ops doesn't take fielding into account and he played only 80 games.  Because fielding should be taken into account, his war is lower than Dozier's.  So you are absolutely wrong, Dozier was the single biggest factor in 2015. The fact that Dozier's 2015 was significantly lower in 2015 than in 2016, 2014 and 2013 only adds to his value as a player.

 

Replacing Polanco is a very minor problem when you consider the Twins other problems, and I think I framed it in that context by listing their bigger problems.  Would he be a problem for a good team?  Sure he would, but the Twins aren't a good team.  As far as defense is concerned, the ten shortstops in MLB that played the most innings averaged a dwar of 1.  Polanco was a -.52, so, theoretically, his fielding cost the Twins half of a game last year, but he's -1.5 below the top ten inning SS last year.  But his war is .6, and he was 22 years old, and his MiLB stats show a history of improvement.  So, no.  He's not a big problem, the problems that I listed are bigger problems.  

 

You mention 3b, rf, lf, and I'll throw in 1b.  You say they're not as important as SS.  The reason that statement is wrong is that there is an expected offense for each position on the field.  SS is not a position that great offense is expected, but 1B, 3B, LF, and RF are.  Keppler had a great month last year, but his MiLB stats don't come close to supporting those numbers.  Mauer should retire, we don't have a 3B, and LF is weaker than SS if you consider expected offense for that position.

 

Then consider pitching.  

 

So, no.  In the scheme of things,  SS is a minor problem for the Twins

 

Late replying to this ...

 

First, Sano played half the season, which is why his WAR was lower that year. But his emergence in the second half of the season was THE biggest reason that team stayed in the hunt for as long as they did. 

 

And we DO currently have a third baseman. His name is Miguel Sano. He has not even had a full year's worth of experience playing third at the major league level, so he definitely needs the chance to get some time there. Also, he has an absolute rocket for an arm and once he gets his head on straight should be fine defensively.

 

You can find decent first basemen all the time. The Twins could go into next year by platooning Joe Mauer and Kennys Vargas at first base and you'd have a pretty solid corner infielder there. Actually, you'd have a stud: Mauer had a .793 OPS versus right handed pitchers last year; Vargas had a 1.200 OPS versus lefties. Mauer is nearly gold glove caliber there, and I admit I don't know much about Vargas' fielding but I'll take some garbage for those games he faces lefties with that 1.200 OPS. First base is not remotely a problem for the Twins. How they use the assets they have there has been a problem.

 

As for pitching, I agree they need several pitchers. But your pitchers get better with good defense -- by your own admission -- and you just do not tolerate bad fielding at shortstop. You don't. 

 

And, the best way you're going to be able to obtain good pitching is through a trade, because there are very few decent free agent pitchers out there. By far the Twins' best trade chip is Brian Dozier. While I would rather keep Dozier, he will not have any better market value than he does this offseason, and so if I'm the Twins I trade him to get that pitching.

 

Polanco can fill in nicely at second, and you can run out a guy like Eduardo Escobar in the meantime or go with fielding and insert Engelb Vielma there, as Seth suggests, until Nick Gordon is ready for the big time.

 

As for corner outfielders, give me a break. Those guys practically grow on trees. Shortstop is a much more valuable position than corner outfielders, and the Twins have a couple of decent prospects out there as it is.

[markos]

 

I think the sentiment is that this would not be enough. Puig is pretty high risk high reward. You don't trade sure things for that. Taking him as a lotto ticket to help LA eat some salary and get rid of a problem is fine, but he's not worth anything on the trade market. De Leon for Dozier is heavily biased to LA.  I think we are getting more if those two are in the deal.

Is it really the conventional wisdom that Puig is a negative asset at this point? If he was a free agent this winter, I think he would get way more than a 2yr-$17M contract with a team option, which is essentially what his current contract is.

 

Did he pass through waivers unclaimed last summer or something? Despite everything that has gone wrong for him the past two seasons, he has still been basically a league-average player when on the field. He's only 26 and clearly has a very high ceiling. Fangraphs is currently projecting him to be solidly above-average (3 WAR). I think teams would line up for him if he was freely available.

 

Just so there is no confusion, I don't want Puig as part of any package for Dozier, particularly as the headliner. But that is because of roster fit and how he would fit in the Twins contention window, not because I think he doesn't have any value.

[gunnarthor]

Twins should start by asking for Alvarez, of course, but I don't think the Dodgers can trade Alvarez.  He's (arguably) their best prospect but they also made a huge financial commitment to him - nearly 16m + a huge tax penalty.  I think he and Urias are their only untouchables.  

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Is it really the conventional wisdom that Puig is a negative asset at this point? If he was a free agent this winter, I think he would get way more than a 2yr-$17M contract with a team option, which is essentially what his current contract is.

 

Did he pass through waivers unclaimed last summer or something? Despite everything that has gone wrong for him the past two seasons, he has still been basically a league-average player when on the field. He's only 26 and clearly has a very high ceiling. Fangraphs is currently projecting him to be solidly above-average (3 WAR). I think teams would line up for him if he was freely available.

 

Just so there is no confusion, I don't want Puig as part of any package for Dozier, particularly as the headliner. But that is because of roster fit and how he would fit in the Twins contention window, not because I think he doesn't have any value.

 

MLB caught up to him two years ago and he hasn't adjusted. You're right in that he's not abysmal (roughly a .750 OPS the last two seasons), but you add to it that he's got a negative reputation, there's definitely quite a bit of risk. I don't mind Puig in MN as a lotto ticket, but Puig is not what the team needs to be competitive, and getting him instead of what we really need (pitching) isn't worth it. 

 

Like I said, I'd take him as a flier, but no way as any center piece.

[markos]

 

MLB caught up to him two years ago and he hasn't adjusted. You're right in that he's not abysmal (roughly a .750 OPS the last two seasons), but you add to it that he's got a negative reputation, there's definitely quite a bit of risk. I don't mind Puig in MN as a lotto ticket, but Puig is not what the team needs to be competitive, and getting him instead of what we really need (pitching) isn't worth it. 

 

Like I said, I'd take him as a flier, but no way as any center piece.

Okay. I think we are on the same page here. 

[mazeville]

 

MLB caught up to him two years ago and he hasn't adjusted. You're right in that he's not abysmal (roughly a .750 OPS the last two seasons), but you add to it that he's got a negative reputation, there's definitely quite a bit of risk. I don't mind Puig in MN as a lotto ticket, but Puig is not what the team needs to be competitive, and getting him instead of what we really need (pitching) isn't worth it. 

 

Like I said, I'd take him as a flier, but no way as any center piece.

 

As a secondary part of the deal I think Puig would be a great buy-low candidate. If the Twins pick up his full salary -- and they should -- then they could perhaps get the Dodgers to throw in some better pitching prospects. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

As a secondary part of the deal I think Puig would be a great buy-low candidate. If the Twins pick up his full salary -- and they should -- then they could perhaps get the Dodgers to throw in some better pitching prospects. 

exactly. I don't think I send Dozier out without two of De Leon, Urias, and Alvaraz.  That's me personally. If we have to pick up Puig and possibly send a lower tier prospect like Stewart over for it, by all means.  But at a centerpiece, no way.

[Linus]

I would go after Urias and would have no problem throwing in Kohl Stewart to get it done.

[tobi0040]

I hope the Twins aren't approaching these discussions with the assumption that a team like the Dodgers has any untouchable players.

 

Dozier has been worth nearly 20 WAR the last four years and is coming off a 40 HR year at 2B. And he doesn't make much or have veto rights.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Quote:

"Dozier has peaked"

 

Based on?

 

 

Please forgive me for not using the quote feature here. Win Twins

dozier has peaked based on lots of well respected research that says baseball players peak between 27 and 30 and the logic that when a 28 year old takes a really big step and the assumption that the research is correct, then "he isn't going to take another big step" seems very straight forward

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9933

[SadMinnySportsFan]

De Leon and Puig would excite me. Obviously Urias would make me giddy, but sounding like hes untouchable. A top 50 pitching prospect for Dozier would be perfect. I think it'd be awesome if we could get Puig in there. Hes so talented...and twins are in a perfect situation to take a shot on him. Less stress in a smaller market, cant get into much trouble as in LA. He is type of "high upside failed prospect" that the cubs took chances on in prior years. Make it happen!

[tobi0040]

dozier has peaked based on lots of well respected research that says baseball players peak between 27 and 30 and the logic that when a 28 year old takes a really big step and the assumption that the research is correct, then "he isn't going to take another big step" seems very straight forward

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9933

Oh yeah. Barry Bonds didn't peak at 27-30. So we should expect the same out of Dozier.

[Lonestar]

 

MLB caught up to him two years ago and he hasn't adjusted. You're right in that he's not abysmal (roughly a .750 OPS the last two seasons), but you add to it that he's got a negative reputation, there's definitely quite a bit of risk. I don't mind Puig in MN as a lotto ticket, but Puig is not what the team needs to be competitive, and getting him instead of what we really need (pitching) isn't worth it. 

 

Like I said, I'd take him as a flier, but no way as any center piece.

I think  Puig has adjusted.  After putting up a Dozier-like line of .229/.260/.333/593 in 96 AB's in May, he put up a .333/.371/.455/826 line in 30 AB's in June and .283/.389/.417/806 line in 60 AB's in July.  The Dodgers demoted him for August where he raked, then he put up a .360/.362/.620/982 line in 50 AB's in September.

[Lonestar]

 

MLB caught up to him two years ago and he hasn't adjusted. You're right in that he's not abysmal (roughly a .750 OPS the last two seasons), but you add to it that he's got a negative reputation, there's definitely quite a bit of risk. I don't mind Puig in MN as a lotto ticket, but Puig is not what the team needs to be competitive, and getting him instead of what we really need (pitching) isn't worth it. 

 

Like I said, I'd take him as a flier, but no way as any center piece.

I think  Puig has adjusted.  After putting up a Dozier-like line of .229/.260/.333/593 in 96 AB's in May, he put up a .333/.371/.455/826 line in 30 AB's in June and .283/.389/.417/806 line in 60 AB's in July.  The Dodgers demoted him for August where he raked, then he put up a .360/.362/.620/982 line in 50 AB's in September.

[Lonestar]

 

Twins should start by asking for Alvarez, of course, but I don't think the Dodgers can trade Alvarez.  He's (arguably) their best prospect but they also made a huge financial commitment to him - nearly 16m + a huge tax penalty.  I think he and Urias are their only untouchables.  

Fangraphs loves Alvarez.  Sickles loves him too, just not as much as de Leon.  MLB Pipeline has him at the bottom of their 100, below Gonzalves and way below de Leon.  By their reckoning, the Twins could trade Gonzalves for Alvarez 1:1.  I don't know BA's current thinking.

 

What the Dodgers paid to sign Alvarez is a sunk cost.  The Dodgers have shown a willingness to move on from sunk costs (at least when it is a mistake).

[Lonestar]

There are [at least] two unknowns:

[1] Will the Dodgers go after Chris Sale or other frontline pitcher?

[2] What other team will make a competitive offer for Dozier?

 

If the Dodgers have their entire prospect horde and have to compete for Dozier, the Twins should fare well.

 

If the Dodgers spend some of their young talent (perhaps including Urias) and they are only competing with themselves for Dozier, the Twins might end of keeping Dozier.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I think the Dodgers already spent some of their prospect cache in the Hill/Reddick trade. If a few of their guys really are untouchable, there probably isn't a worthwhile package to be had there anymore.

[Platoon]

Sure they hide bad gloves in the corners, But why?  It wouldn't be hard to comb MiLB and pick up the absolute best fielding team in MLB.  Every single position, including every pitcher.  Why don't they do that?  Because they need hitting, and they also need pitchers that can get people out... so there are tradeoffs.  They generally get their hits from LF, RF, 1B, and 3B, but the Twins don't.  They get them from 2B.  I would trade a +1 oWAR SS that hits 240 with no power, for a -.5 oWar SS that hits 280 with some power every day.  I'm not saying that Polanco is a 280 hitter, but I think he has a real chance of hitting 280, and I also think his fielding will improve because there's evidence of that in his MiLB history.  Oh, and I'd take Nunez's last year with the Twins every year if I could get it, because he more than made up for any fielding (and .983 isn't bad at all) with his bat.

 

Range stats are one of the weakest stats that can be considered.  They're generally only a measure of putouts or assists per game.  They don't measure range at all, and range isn't something that you can judge by watching.  What's more, a guy with the greatest REAL range is likely to commit more errors because he's touching balls that other guys don't and he's likely throwing while moving at a greater speed, or while he's off balance.

 

So no.  It's not as simple as saying that every successful team has to have strong defense up the middle, any more than saying bunting is really important, or saying that switch-hitting is really important, or that steals are really important, or left-handed pitchers are really important.  All of those are bull  because they can be off-set by other things.

 

All in all very valid, and well written. But it ignores one simple fact. The team is not winning with its offense at second base. Nor will it improve greatly if you keep Dozier, and replace the at least 15 HR's he won't hit this year with Sano's, Buxtons and Keplers. It's still going to leave you weak up the middle, and short of pitching. Now if you replace Dozier with a pitcher, and find Polancos second base defense a wash, and his hitting for a higher avg and plenty EBH's , and superior speed, you still have what better be an improved Sano et al in place, plus I would hope at a minimum a #2 starter. And move on a defensive SS upgrade ASAP. There's nothing wrong with keeping Doziers hitting, but frankly he's needed for bigger things. Pitching. As for the Twins relying on BD for power, if in two years he's your best power hitter, the problems this team now faces, are minsicule.

[DocBauer]

DodgersDodgersDodgersDogers....every single indication seems to indicate this is the best match for BOTH teams. Not saying not to play it up or look around, but this is anot almost perfect fit. BOTH teams have to give up what they don't really want to, but are better off in the end because of it.

 

Puig is NOT a part of this package up front. He is a talented, potential lottery ticket who is a problem and headache in LA, and may be a problem here, but someone who the Twins could take back as the 3rd or 4th player in a deal, to rid LA of a problem at a reasonable salary, who could possibly find fit and freedom and fun again in Minnesota. It's an interesting idea, and I like it. But I absolutely balk if he's any sort of #2 piece in this trade situation.

[TKGuy]

Bob Nightengale of the USA Today is now reporting that the Dodgers are aggressively pursuing Dozier and that the Twins interest is now been "piqued."

 

In other words, the Dodgers look ready to overpay

[ashbury]

But I absolutely balk if he's any sort of #2 piece in this trade situation.

Shall we grant that the headlines nationally and probably in both cities would read "Dozier for Puig plus prospects" in the scenario that this outfielder is even part of a deal?

[nytwinsfan]

 

Bob Nightengale of the USA Today is now reporting that the Dodgers are aggressively pursuing Dozier and that the Twins interest is now been "piqued."

In other words, the Dodgers look ready to overpay

Fantastic. 

 

I think it has to be De Leon (Urias untouchable) + either Verdugo or Alvarez or Diaz-PLUS.  They are not going to trade De Leon and Bellinger, and the Twins don't need a Willie Calhoun type player. Alvarez has really high upside, even though he is a ways away, so I would think the Twins would quickly do De Leon plus Alvarez. If the second part of the package is Diaz, I would think the Twins would want something more, such as Puig (maybe Twins would throw in Rosario) or one of the "lesser" pitchers like Buehler or Sheffield or maybe Gavin Lux if the Twins' scouts like him at SS.

Edited December 4, 2016 by nytwinsfan

[Platoon]

Late replying to this ...

 

First, Sano played half the season, which is why his WAR was lower that year. But his emergence in the second half of the season was THE biggest reason that team stayed in the hunt for as long as they did. 

 

And we DO currently have a third baseman. His name is Miguel Sano. He has not even had a full year's worth of experience playing third at the major league level, so he definitely needs the chance to get some time there. Also, he has an absolute rocket for an arm and once he gets his head on straight should be fine defensively.

 

You can find decent first basemen all the time. The Twins could go into next year by platooning Joe Mauer and Kennys Vargas at first base and you'd have a pretty solid corner infielder there. Actually, you'd have a stud: Mauer had a .793 OPS versus right handed pitchers last year; Vargas had a 1.200 OPS versus lefties. Mauer is nearly gold glove caliber there, and I admit I don't know much about Vargas' fielding but I'll take some garbage for those games he faces lefties with that 1.200 OPS. First base is not remotely a problem for the Twins. How they use the assets they have there has been a problem.

 

As for pitching, I agree they need several pitchers. But your pitchers get better with good defense -- by your own admission -- and you just do not tolerate bad fielding at shortstop. You don't. 

 

And, the best way you're going to be able to obtain good pitching is through a trade, because there are very few decent free agent pitchers out there. By far the Twins' best trade chip is Brian Dozier. While I would rather keep Dozier, he will not have any better market value than he does this offseason, and so if I'm the Twins I trade him to get that pitching.

 

Polanco can fill in nicely at second, and you can run out a guy like Eduardo Escobar in the meantime or go with fielding and insert Engelb Vielma there, as Seth suggests, until Nick Gordon is ready for the big time.

 

As for corner outfielders, give me a break. Those guys practically grow on trees. Shortstop is a much more valuable position than corner outfielders, and the Twins have a couple of decent prospects out there as it is.

Sometomes I regret that TD only allows a simple like, not one that can be elevated to say a 10. One of the hardest things to find is an elite glove at SS. Simply trying to justify substandard leather at that position, with offensive chops borders on delusional. We have spent so many years looking at mediocre defensive SS, we have become complacent about the importance of the position.

[ashbury]

or maybe Gavin Lux if the Twins' scouts like him at SS.

Lux was a 2016 draft pick so they'd have to wait until next June to swap him, don't they?

 

I don't know how long a PTBNL can remain pending after a trade.

[nytwinsfan]

 

Lux was a 2016 draft pick so they'd have to wait until next June to swap him, don't they?

 

I don't know how long a PTBNL can remain pending after a trade.

 

They changed the rule. Now you can trade a player drafted that year the DAY after the World Series:  http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/05/all-drafted-players-now-eligible-to-be-traded-after-world-series.html

[ashbury]

They changed the rule. Now you can trade a player drafted that year the DAY after the World Series:  http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/05/all-drafted-players-now-eligible-to-be-traded-after-world-series.html

[TKGuy]

I don't think the Dodgers can afford to take on Sale with their mandate to get the debt ratio correct. That's why sending Puig with prospects would wash out the salaries then

[Squirrel]

I don't think the Dodgers can afford to take on Sale with their mandate to get the debt ratio correct. That's why sending Puig with prospects would wash out the salaries then

Sale is still under control for what, two, three more years? And he's not that expensive considering the pitcher he is. If a trade could be worked out, I don't think the financial considerations would be the issue. If I were the White Sox I'd be wanting a return at least twice what we'd get for Dozier.