Article: Dozier Trade Talk Heating Up?

[Nick Nelson]

If history is any indication, then our likelihood of seeing the first trade executed by Minnesota's reconfigured front office within the next couple of weeks is pretty good.

 

So let's sift through the latest rumors and rumblings.Now that kitchen stoves are cooling down after a long weekend of roasting and baking, baseball's Hot Stove is about to heat up. The Winter Meetings will get underway in Washington DC next week, and this is annually the most active period of the offseason.

 

Last year, Terry Ryan and the front office struck unusually early, completing a trade for Yankees catcher John Ryan Murphy just 10 days after the conclusion of the World Series. But in 2012, the Denard Span deal went down on November 29th and Ben Revere was sent out a week later. Two years earlier, the regrettable JJ Hardy trade was announced on December 9th.

 

With these precedents in mind, it's probably time to start honing our antennas for reports and tidbits relating to the Twins, and especially Brian Dozier. Unsurprisingly, the slugging second baseman's name has already been floating around in rumors. At the GM Meetings earlier this month, MLB Network's Jon Morosi reported that Dozier received interest from multiple teams.

 

In the Offseason Handbook, we extensively examined Dozier's most likely trade suitors, focusing on three different clubs with a distinct need and the means to get something done.

 

One of those teams is now likely out of the running. The Mets extended a qualifying offer to incumbent second baseman Neil Walker and he accepted it, so he'll be coming back on a one-year pact.

 

Another team, the Pirates, could enter the bidding but I have seen no public reports indicating that has happened yet.

 

It's the Los Angeles Dodgers that have been linked to the Twins and Dozier most substantially, and this comes as no surprise. They led off the "Dealing Dozier" section in the Handbook because they are clearly the most logical match.

 

Why Dozier Makes Sense For The Dodgers

 

Now that the Cubs have finally ended their infamous drought, you'd be hard pressed to find a club more desperate for a championship. The Dodgers fell just short of the World Series this year, and haven't appeared in the Fall Classic since 1988. They're bankrolling the highest payroll in baseball. Clayton Kershaw, the game's best pitcher, turns 29 next March and can opt out of his contract after the 2018 season.

 

It's go-time, and Dozier represents exactly what LA needs. Howie Kendrick has been traded and Chase Utley is an aging free agent, leaving second wide open. Meanwhile, their best right-handed power hitter, third baseman Justin Turner, may land elsewhere as he explores the open market.

 

For all of these reasons, the fit is unmistakable. There is also this wrinkle: facing a mandate to reduce debt, the Dodgers are apparently focused on cutting down spending significantly over the next couple of years. With his relatively affordable contract ($15 million through 2018), Dozier could carry added appeal.

 

Why The Dodgers Make Sense For The Twins

 

They are motivated buyers with some quality assets on hand. The Dodgers have reportedly had talks with the Tigers regarding Ian Kinsler, but Minnesota might be a preferable partner since they wouldn't require as much MLB-ready impact talent in return. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine are transparently taking a long-term view, which would enable them to justify flipping Dozier for prospects who are a bit further out.

 

With that said, this trade can't happen without at least one player who is in the majors or extremely close.

 

Who To Target In A Trade

 

Mike Berardino (whose Twitter account has been a steady stream of Twins updates and notes, always appreciated during the slower stretches of winter), relayed a suggestion from an AL scout that Cody Bellinger might make sense as a centerpiece for a Dozier deal. The idea, evidently, is that the power-hitting prospect could eventually replace Joe Mauer at first base.

 

Berardino has also dropped names like outfielder Yasiel Puig and shortstop Gavix Lux.

 

They're intriguing possibilities. But, does it really make sense to build a Dozier return package around anything other than pitching? I would say no.

 

In our Twins Daily offseason blueprint within the Handbook, one of the moves we suggested was trading Dozier to the Dodgers in exchange for a package featuring Jose De Leon.

 

Presuming the Dodgers deem Julio Urias – who became the youngest pitcher ever to start a postseason game in October – untouchable, but De Leon is a worthy target. Like Jose Berrios, he is a Puerto Rican right-hander with a hard, spinning fastball and quality secondaries. Ideally, the two would form a potent young combo at the head of Minnesota's resurgent rotation. De Leon ranked 32nd on MLB.com's midseason top prospect update, and 25th per Baseball America.

 

Berardino, for his part, opines that De Leon's shoulder inflammation scare this year presents too much risk. However, there is little reason to think those issues, which hindered his early-season workload and contributed to him totaling fewer than 100 innings, were still affecting him in any way by the latter portion of the summer, when De Leon was eviscerating Triple-A lineups prior to his first MLB call-up. Alas, finding a premium arm with zero health concerns might be impossible.

 

If the Twins could strengthen their odds by adding a couple of other high-ceiling prospects to the mix, this move would seemingly be a no-brainer. But of course, it takes two to tango. So, just how motivated are the Dodgers?

 

We might find out next week. Or even sooner.

 

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[Seth Stohs]

Two things...

 

1.) Can't help but wondering if MLB's statement that the Dodgers need to start paying their hundreds of millions of dollars of debt will play into this.

 

2.) Dave Mona said that Dozier was on the Sports Huddle this morning, and when asked, Dozier said that he still hasn't talked to Falvey and Levine. Another indication that they are trying very hard to trade him. Or maybe not. 

[bluechipper]

I think pitching has to be the main return for Dozier in order for a trade to make sense.

 

Bellinger is a good prospect, but a strikeout prone first basemen isn't enough for me to give up Dozier.

 

[Cory Engelhardt]

Alvarez, Puig and Sheffield. Or trade out Puig for a different prospect.

[tobi0040]

The new GM and President have not talked to the best player over the last few years? A guy getting MVP votes? That is all you need to know

 

My Twins source thinks he moves at or shortly after the winter meetings

[tobi0040]

My other thought is I don't know why Puig would be a fit. An under performing OF with a larger contract would seem to be the last type of guy we would want

[DaveW]

 

 

 

2.) Dave Mona said that Dozier was on the Sports Huddle this morning, and when asked, Dozier said that he still hasn't talked to Falvey and Levine. Another indication that they are trying very hard to trade him. Or maybe not. 

It makes no sense for those two to talk to Dozier, both have been on the job for less than a month pretty much, no? They need to be working 24/7 on how to improve the team. Dozier is under contact for the next couple years, so honestly, there is no reason for them to meet with him during this very busy time during early FA, GM meetings etc.

[DaveW]

 

My other thought is I don't know why Puig would be a fit. An under performing OF with a larger contract would seem to be the last type of guy we would want

Puig wouldn't be the centerpiece of any deal, and likely the Dodger would pick up a few bucks anwyays I bet. With that said though, Puig would be a GREAT high upside/buy low candidate. 

Behind Buxton and Kepler the Twins OF depth over the next couple years is pretty weak anyways, Rosario took a step back last year and is still a ways away from being a reliable corner OF in the majors.

Puig-Buxton-Kepler could be an elite OF if all hit their ceiling.

I'd still want two high upside pitchers back in return though, for sure. No desire for a future 1B/DH type, those grow on trees...

[h2oface]

Julio Urias is the only player to trade with the Dodgers for Dozier. The ONLY player.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Puig would not be of any value. Not against picking him up, but I'm not offering value for him b/c as it stands right now, he carries quite a bit of risk along with a high price. I'm all for picking up a contract like that hoping that the scenery change, and if that is the price needed to get a sexy list of prospects to go with it, I'm certainly game... but as a headliner... absolutely not.

[nytwinsfan]

Yah, no thanks on Puig unless he is a secondary part of the trade AND the Dodgers foot part of the bill.

[NE Gopher]

Pitching, pitching and more pitching should be the return.

 

My guess is our new leadership will do everything possible to avoid the appearance of getting the short end of any deal so I doubt that they would accept a Urias for Dozier straight up swap.

 

I would. And that's why it's good that I am no where near a front office of any MLB team

[Thrylos]

 

 

1.) Can't help but wondering if MLB's statement that the Dodgers need to start paying their hundreds of millions of dollars of debt will play into this.

 

If anything, it will help them, since Dozier's contract is under valued.  They will need to shed some $ after next season, but they really do not have much commitment after 2018, and in 2018, other than Kershaw, Gonzales, Kasmir, & McCarthy are the issues.  Can they flip one of them after next season?  Maybe. 

 

2017 payroll does not matter to them really.  Another tactic they can use is to take on bad contracts that expire after 2017.  That might be kind of an opportunity for the Twins to flip someone like Santiago for someone like Ryu who is due a bit less than $8M in each of 2017 and 2018, so the Dodgers can save $8M in 2018 and the Twins can end up getting a better pitcher than Santiago for the next 2 seasons. 

 

Same with Puig who is owed $8.2 and $9.2 M the next 2 seasons.  Can the Twins trade someone like Park (due $9M the next 3 seasons, $8M savings for the Dodgers) for him?  Maybe, if they add someone.  Does it make sense for the Twins to do it?  I dunno...

 

 

[DaveW]

If the Twins wanted to get rid of Santiago they could have simply non tendered him.

[jimmer]

I think pitching has to be the main return for Dozier in order for a trade to make sense.

 

Bellinger is a good prospect, but a strikeout prone first basemen isn't enough for me to give up Dozier.

strikeout prone? 20% is strikeout prone?

[Thrylos]

 

If the Twins wanted to get rid of Santiago they canould have simply non tendered him.

 

FTFY.  They still can;  deadline to tender a contract is midnight December 2nd.

 

But I suspect that they still will be shopping him around (like the rest of the arbitration-eligibles) to see whether they can get anything back, before they decide to tender or not.

[Platoon]

Short of trading one of the building block young players the Twins have almost no other means of acquiring some talent in the starting pitching dept other than trading Dozier. And with our dirth of SP I would take the best offer out there this off season. With another player, I might roll the dice and wait for 2017 to see if we could capitalize on his value with a contender desperate for help in the middle of the year. But Doziers history of lengthly cold spells makes that a real gamble. Which BD would one be trading next July? In this case I would go with the bird in the hand option.

[beckmt]

I am guessing more like spring, now clubs want to pay as little as possible, in the spring holes will be seen and price will rise.

[gunnarthor]

I think Puig would be a really nice fit for us, actually.  He isn't perfect and I think he'd have a bit of culture shock going from LA to MPLS but, in a down year, he still had an 101 OPS+ and doesn't strike out too much. He needs to start taking a few more walks again but .... We'd have him for his age 26 and 27 seasons and (I think) he'd be a nice upgrade over Rosario and Rosario could be an intriguing fourth OFer option.  

 

 

[HitInAPinch]

Oh to be a fly on Falvey and Levine's wall.....

[nytwinsfan]

 

I think Puig would be a really nice fit for us, actually.  He isn't perfect and I think he'd have a bit of culture shock going from LA to MPLS but, in a down year, he still had an 101 OPS+ and doesn't strike out too much. He needs to start taking a few more walks again but .... We'd have him for his age 26 and 27 seasons and (I think) he'd be a nice upgrade over Rosario and Rosario could be an intriguing fourth OFer option.  

Yeah, but he's more than a bit more expensive than Rosario. If he's a secondary part of the deal, then fine, would take him, but he can't be one of the primary pieces, otherwise we're not getting what we need/deserve for Dozier.

[gunnarthor]

 

Yeah, but he's more than a bit more expensive than Rosario. If he's a secondary part of the deal, then fine, would take him, but he can't be one of the primary pieces, otherwise we're not getting what we need/deserve for Dozier.

Yeah, I wouldn't want him straight up for Dozier.  

[clutterheart]

Trading Dozier is the right long term move.  - I just hope Falvey and Levine have had time to self scout the organization.

[gunnarthor]

 

Trading Dozier is the right long term move.  - I just hope Falvey and Levine have had time to self scout the organization.

Both probably have notes from TX and CLE on the Twins minor league systems.  I think Levine has strong scouting background as well.  And, as Klaw has stated, the Twins scouting system is well respected so I don't think they're going in blind.

[tobi0040]

Bringing back Puig would be an all too familiar Ryan-Esque move that lacks commitment to a strategy. Unless he is viewed as a deadline flip of course.

[nicksaviking]

I'd like the Twins to get some pitching back for Dozier, but power hitting 1B prospects just seem to be a dying breed. That's not to say there aren't power hitting 1B in the league, it just seems that most of them didn't come up as 1B, they used to play something else.

 

If Bellinger ends up being the target, I really hope Falvey already has multi-year game plans written in pencil for Sano, Vargas, Park, Kepler and Mauer. Bellinger is really appealing though, he sure looks a lot like Anthony Rizzo.

 

Also a thought, if the Dodgers have to cut payroll what would people think about throwing in Santiago and taking back Scott Kazmir? He's got a couple of ugly years left on his contract but it's not like the Twins are going to be hurting for payroll flexibility in the next couple years. Taking on his contract might really sweeten the offer from the Dodgers if they truly have their backs against the wall in terms of debt.

[Dave The Dastardly]

I don't get all this excitement over the possibility of trading Dozier.  We (the Twins) finally get a genuine power hitter, after not having one for years, and the first thing we want to do is swap him for a pitching prospect? What? We don't have any pitching prospects in our minor league system? Oh, wait a minute, we supposedly have a half dozen or so exciting prospects already in the minors. If we want to believe the hype. And if we believe the hype, why do we want another prospect? Does that word "prospect" mean something different than what I think it means?

 

Trading Dozier reminds me of folks already in debt up to their elbows getting a new credit card; temporary euphoria because they can keep buying new stuff, but a long-term problem when they realize they gave away the farm for a cheap temporary thrill.

 

I noticed the author of this article termed the JJ Hardy trade as "regrettable". I think the Dozier trade, if it happens, will wind up with the same characterization when all the "experts" start complaining about the lack of power in the lineup.

 

The point is you can't build a winning team by exchanging one component for another. Especially when the newly acquired component may or may not pan out.

 

Unless our long term plan is to trade some of our pitching prospects for a power hitting prospect in a year or two (swapping out components again), I say keep a known quantity (Dozier) and build your new team around him. Otherwise you're merely playing whack-a-mole.

 

 

[gunnarthor]

 

 

 

Unless our long term plan is to trade some of our pitching prospects for a power hitting prospect in a year or two (swapping out components again), I say keep a known quantity (Dozier) and build your new team around him. Otherwise you're merely playing whack-a-mole.

I think this is why we're seeing reports that Falvey/Levine are asking for a very high return on Dozier.  They aren't going to give him away and the hope is that the players he gets back will be a better fit for the Sano/Buxton/Berrios nucleus.  But if the best return is a couple non-top 100 prospects, you keep Dozier because you don't have to trade him now.  He's cheap, he's a pretty good player and you can always reexamine trading him during the season.  

[Nick Nelson]

 

I don't get all this excitement over the possibility of trading Dozier.  We (the Twins) finally get a genuine power hitter, after not having one for years, and the first thing we want to do is swap him for a pitching prospect? What? We don't have any pitching prospects in our minor league system? Oh, wait a minute, we supposedly have a half dozen or so exciting prospects already in the minors. If we want to believe the hype. And if we believe the hype, why do we want another prospect? Does that word "prospect" mean something different than what I think it means?

Look up the dictionary definition of "prospect" and you'll see synonyms listed such as likelihood, hope, odds, possibility. Prospects are never sure things (and I think you're getting carried away with the "hype" surrounding the current Twins pitching pipeline) so it's always beneficial to stack up more of them. 

 

 

I noticed the author of this article termed the JJ Hardy trade as "regrettable". I think the Dozier trade, if it happens, will wind up with the same characterization when all the "experts" start complaining about the lack of power in the lineup.

As long as they don't trade Dozier for a pair of bad minor-league relievers I doubt there will be strong comparisons made.

 

The Twins hit 200 home runs this year and lost 103 games so do you really think any knowledgeable experts are going to be lamenting a move that subtracts power hitting in exchange for power pitching? 

[Mike Sixel]

 

I don't get all this excitement over the possibility of trading Dozier.  We (the Twins) finally get a genuine power hitter, after not having one for years, and the first thing we want to do is swap him for a pitching prospect? What? We don't have any pitching prospects in our minor league system? Oh, wait a minute, we supposedly have a half dozen or so exciting prospects already in the minors. If we want to believe the hype. And if we believe the hype, why do we want another prospect? Does that word "prospect" mean something different than what I think it means?

 

Trading Dozier reminds me of folks already in debt up to their elbows getting a new credit card; temporary euphoria because they can keep buying new stuff, but a long-term problem when they realize they gave away the farm for a cheap temporary thrill.

 

I noticed the author of this article termed the JJ Hardy trade as "regrettable". I think the Dozier trade, if it happens, will wind up with the same characterization when all the "experts" start complaining about the lack of power in the lineup.

 

The point is you can't build a winning team by exchanging one component for another. Especially when the newly acquired component may or may not pan out.

 

Unless our long term plan is to trade some of our pitching prospects for a power hitting prospect in a year or two (swapping out components again), I say keep a known quantity (Dozier) and build your new team around him. Otherwise you're merely playing whack-a-mole.

 

Rebuild your team around Dozier? He is signed for 2 more years....and he will be over 30.....

 

If you don't trade valuable pieces, you don't get value back.

 

As for the SPs in the minors, NONE look like legit number 2 types. How do you propose acquiring good/great pitchers, if you won't trade for them?