Article: REPORT: Twins To Sign Jason Castro

[Shaitan]

I don't love the 3rd year, but you always overpay in free agency.

[tobi0040]

Agree completely DieHard. This whole process of feeling out what the defense will give you. Is it inside today? Outside? Low. It is really silly.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Yeah, this is my feeling, 1 or even 2 year deal would be fine, 3? Would the pohlads allow us to move on from another deal if Castro continues to decline?

I just hope this doesn't take the focus off the fact that they should be actively looking to get some legit catching prospects in the system as well.

 

I would assume the hope is that he's a backup catcher by the 3rd year on this deal. $8 million seems like a lot for a backup catcher now but baseball deals keep getting bigger so in two years, that may very well be the market value of a strong backup catcher. Until then, it's not like the Twins would use that money elsewhere (they're not realistically getting an ace starting pitcher, paying for elite relievers is dicey and they don't have a lot of needs in position players because they're young all over the place). If this keeps them from signing the next Mike Pelfrey, that's an extra bonus. To me this is taking money out of the Pole-dads coffers and using it for something useful. I'm all for it.

 

That said, I'm a bit sad about what this means for Garver. I was hoping to see him aggressively pushed next year and now with JRM ahead of him, he's more of a "Cup of Coffee in September" guy than a June guy. Obviously the Twins FO and staff have so much more insight into his development so they likely see a lot of things he needs to work on but on a personal level, Garver was a guy I got excited about for 2017 and I'm a bit sad.

 

Also sad (but less sad) about JRM. I know last year was awful but I was hoping he'd have a nice bounce-back year since his prior trajectory suggested he could hit well for a catcher. Hopefully he'll be a little less backup and a little more platoon this year under the new FO. I'd like to see what we have in him.

[mikelink45]

 

He's not a very good hitter, but he's one of the best pitch framers in the game. Going from the worst in Suzuki to one of the best should do something for you. Having good offense from the position would be nice, but the pitching is the problem, and this hopefully will help with that.

My fear is that he is now entering the age when catchers regress and we are on the hook for three years.  2017 is not the year we contend and by 2018 regression might be a factor.  I hope I am wrong. 

[Doomtints]

 

Also sad (but less sad) about JRM. I know last year was awful but I was hoping he'd have a nice bounce-back year since his prior trajectory suggested he could hit well for a catcher. Hopefully he'll be a little less backup and a little more platoon this year under the new FO. I'd like to see what we have in him.

 

I think the Twins got duped with JRM.  The Yankees already traded off a catcher this year too, one who looks better than JRM ever did.  

Sure, give JRM a shot in spring training.  But if he still can't block pitches, throw out runners, or hit the ball, let's hope they don't hesitate to make Garver the backup and leave JRM at AAA.

Edited November 23, 2016 by Doomtints

[ThejacKmp]

 

If a Dozier trade actually goes down, I'd hope a catching prospect is part of it.  Murphy was supposed to be that guy.  And could still be.  I want some backup for the backstop position.

 

Oh man, disagree. If they trade Dozier, I want it to be entirely focused on pitching prospects - the more and the higher rated the better.

 

The Twins with Castro are fine at catcher. Twins fans have been spoiled with a decade of Mauer - most teams never really have elite catchers. Castro/JRM/Garver/Turner/Rortvedt is a perfectly acceptable amount of catching depth. It's not going to be a position of strength unless Garver or Rortvedt take big jumps but it's not going to be what keeps the team out of the playoffs.

 

Pitching will be. The Twins need an influx of pitching prospects. If you trade Dozier (and you should) that's got to be the focus. We aren't signing the next Jon Lester, we need to find pitching within.

[ThejacKmp]

 

 In 2015 base runners stole 42 out of 43 attempts and his weak arm is well document in Astros territory.     

 

In 2015 he caught 24 out of 66 baserunners for 36%, an above rate (32% was league average). In 2016 he caught 14 out of 59 for $24% (29% was league average). He's been about league average over his career for this stat (which is highly variable BTW).

 

Not sure where you got your stats but it would be hard for them to be more wrong.

[DJL44]

"From what I've seen, MN MiLB needs a lot of legit prospects, period."

 

The top pick in the 2017 draft and the biggest international bonus pool should help.

[Vanimal46]

 

I think the Twins got duped with JRM.  The Yankees already traded off a catcher this year too, one who looks better than JRM ever did.  

Sure, give JRM a shot in spring training.  But if he still can't block pitches, throw out runners, or hit the ball, let's hope they don't hesitate to make Garver the backup and leave JRM at AAA.

If there's any consolation in that trade, Aaron Hicks was pretty bad too. So no blood lost in this trade battle. 

I do agree that the clock is ticking for JRM. He probably gets one more shot next year to prove he's a worthy backup. Otherwise he'll be AAA fodder and Garver takes over the backup spot. 

[Rosterman]

Avoiding the question of where do you play him if he can't catch, could the Twins have gotten WIlson Ramos for a similar price. 

 

And question #2. Is there anyone in the system that will step forward and be the Twins full-time catcher in 2018 or 2019, or even 2020. This buys us some time.

[Vanimal46]

 

My fear is that he is now entering the age when catchers regress and we are on the hook for three years.  2017 is not the year we contend and by 2018 regression might be a factor.  I hope I am wrong. 

He may or may not regress. There are plenty of catchers in their 30's that are doing a fine job behind the plate. Bottom line is this 3 year contract isn't going to cripple the payroll for the Twins.

 

There's a solid 3 year window before Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Berrios, and pick your flavor prospect become multi-millionaires. This is a perfect time to pay a premium price for someone who they feel is going to help a young pitching staff, and bring stability to a positional need in the organization. 

[laloesch]

 

Speaking of turning Castro into something he's not, you might want to double check your 2015 caught stealing data.

As an aside, consider adding data over and above batting average to evaluate offense.

 

 

Quote away.  blow me away with stats chief. 

 

I don't really care what his other offensive stats are.  Managing no better than a .222 batting average in three seasons is bad any way you look at it.

Edited November 23, 2016 by laloesch

[HitInAPinch]

 

If this signing infuses the pitchers with more confidence, even if it's only a placebo, it's probably worth it. Not sure that it will, but signing a defensive catcher is really about getting the most out of your pitchers.

 

I'd like this deal a lot better if the team also signed Geovany Soto to complement him. Probably not in the cards but he'd be cheap and we really have no clue what is going on in Falvey's head.

 

http://i256.photobucket.com/albums/hh186/Retleo/python-my-brain-hurts.jpg

[nicksaviking]

 

For good reason.  Castro's superior pitch framing means that he gets 0.92 strikes called per game that should be balls.  

That's such dominance it just makes one tremble inside.  A world series is inevitable.

 

It's probably just as much about the pitchers thinking that they can get those calls as actually getting the calls. I think the Twins and probably all Minnesota teams self-fulfilling prophesies have been of the negative variety for a long time, swinging that the other way might create more wins than anything else they can do this offseason.

[laloesch]

 

In 2015 he caught 24 out of 66 baserunners for 36%, an above rate (32% was league average). In 2016 he caught 14 out of 59 for $24% (29% was league average). He's been about league average over his career for this stat (which is highly variable BTW).

 

Not sure where you got your stats but it would be hard for them to be more wrong.

 

My mistake to not double check. 

The Houston source was quoting Hank Conger stats alongside Castro's.

Edited November 23, 2016 by laloesch

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I swear I posted earlier but I guess it didn't take. No matter. I like this move a ton. But I admit I'm shocked. I just didn't see it happening, or so quickly, and frankly, as rumors flew, I thought it would take more than $8M per.

 

In my blueprint, I talked about Castro. I just honestly didn't think it would happen, so I quickly moved on to other ideas/options.

 

Look, Castro is not a savior for the team as a whole, or the pitching staff as a unit. But a catcher who can call a game, throw decently, steal some strikes, etc, is a real quality get for this team. The fact that he bats LH and does well against RH pitching is a huge bonus. A catcher can't play every day. Murphy and Garver provide an interesting back up/platoon scenario that can work really well if the manager just approaches it logically.

 

Now, another infielder when Dozier is traded, one bullpen piece, and a competent 4th OF piece and I'm really encouraged. First step done!

im with you, I hope for a big upgrade in one rotation spot as well as the middle infielder is a good fielding shortstop.

[Dantes929]

 

It is a good signing if you plan on contending soon. Does anyone see this team contending in 3 years? I am a dire hard fan but I don't see this turning around that soon.

I don't see them contending in 3 years.   I see them contending the next  3 years.  I think there is talent on this team and I expect talented players to play well.   That was not the case last year.   Berrios, Sano, Buxton and May playing well and others just playing better can make a profound difference.    What's happening in 3 years that can't happen this year?

[Gagne Fan]

John Ryan Murphy is an advanced catch and throw guy who can't hit, Castro will just give us a left-handed versiin

[Blake]

I was against a 3 year deal for someone like Castro simply due to the age factor.

 

However, now that I think about it, signing Castro says the front office does not believe there is anything in the pipeline close to MLB ready.

 

Signing Castro also tells me a lot about the Murphy trade.

 

It's looking like an interesting off-season.

 

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I don't see them contending in 3 years.   I see them contending the next  3 years.  I think there is talent on this team and I expect talented players to play well.   That was not the case last year.   Berrios, Sano, Buxton and May playing well and others just playing better can make a profound difference.    What's happening in 3 years that can't happen this year?

 

The hitting core is here now.  If we are 3 years out from contending, then Falvey/Levine failed in bringing in that pitching that we need.. and they failed in developing those young starters that we currently have.  Personally, I think 2018 is very reasonable for contention.  If we're lucky, 2017 will mirror 2015.

[Loosey]

Here is possibly a dumb question I have. 

 

Now that a lot has been made of Castro's pitch framing ability, are umpires going to take notice and squeeze him a bit on those borderline outside pitches?  I hope they wouldn't try to guess, but if they know Castro can basically expand the zone by 2 inces (that's a random guess by me, I have no idea if it is actually 1 centimeter or 1 foot) will they call it ball now knowing he has that ability, taking away his biggest strength?

[jorgenswest]

Castro's signing shows what Falvey values in a catcher and defensive metrics. It is a 180 degree turn from the Ryan era.

 

Falvey does seem to be getting a pass on this one as those critical of the signing and skeptical of framing metrics are leaving Falvey out of the discussion for the most part. This is his first mark on the organization.

 

Unfortunately, it is no longer possible to acquire a weak hitting catcher with good receiving skills at a bargain contract. The Twins missed the boat on that one and now Falvey and the Twins are paying full retail for the skill.

[nicksaviking]

 

Here is possibly a dumb question I have. 

 

Now that a lot has been made of Castro's pitch framing ability, are umpires going to take notice and squeeze him a bit on those borderline outside pitches?  I hope they wouldn't try to guess, but if they know Castro can basically expand the zone by 2 inces (that's a random guess by me, I have no idea if it is actually 1 centimeter or 1 foot) will they call it ball now knowing he has that ability, taking away his biggest strength?

 

I would guess it's the opposite, otherwise good pitch framers would likely suffer extreme swings year-to-year once it's known that they are good pitch framers and I don't think that happens.

 

I think umpires appreciate good defensive catchers and I also think they would prefer a 3 hour game if possible. I think if the umps know that if they are working with a good catcher, they tend to give him the benefit of the doubt.

[Loosey]

 

It is a good signing if you plan on contending soon. Does anyone see this team contending in 3 years? I am a dire hard fan but I don't see this turning around that soon.

This exact team?  No.  But I assume the Twins brought in Falvey and Levine to take the young core of this team and add pieces necessary to make them a contender in 3 years, hopefully less.  How they use those core pieces is mostly up to them.  Some may become assets used to get new core pieces and some will become mainstays that help them win.  

 

So to answer your question, yes I see them contending in 3 years.

[Loosey]

 

I would guess it's the opposite, otherwise good pitch framers would likely suffer extreme swings year-to-year once it's known that they are good pitch framers and I don't think that happens.

 

I think umpires appreciate good defensive catchers and I also think they would prefer a 3 hour game if possible. I think if the umps know that if they are working with a good catcher, they tend to give him the benefit of the doubt.

Thanks, that makes sense.

[Steve Lein]

Love the move. Think it will help the pitcher more than many realize. Not a world-changer in that regard, but will help move their needle.

 

I didn't dislike Suzuki because of his hitting ability, or lack therof, just like I won't dislike Castro because of his hitting.

 

I didn't like Suzuki because he was a bad defensive catcher. I probably disliked him even more because the front office tried to keep telling us he was good. 

 

As a lefty hitter, he'll also make a pretty good platoon with Murphy or Garver I think. Can keep each hitter away from their weaknesses, and keeps Castro as the primary catcher.

[DJL44]

The things that make a catcher a "bad" pitch framer are things like moving up and down when the ball is received (bouncing), pulling your glove through the zone while receiving and setting up too far away from a pitch which makes you reach. Good receivers minimize the motion required to catch the ball. They also tend to naturally move each pitch toward the center of the zone by extending their arm toward the pitcher when they receive. Keeping your thumb pointed toward the center of the zone is another technique. Good receivers do this without a lot of effort.

[wsnydes]

 

Avoiding the question of where do you play him if he can't catch, could the Twins have gotten WIlson Ramos for a similar price. 

 

And question #2. Is there anyone in the system that will step forward and be the Twins full-time catcher in 2018 or 2019, or even 2020. This buys us some time.

In my view, Ramos makes no sense for this team.  He's after a shorter term deal because of his knee injury.  A one year deal makes absolutely no sense for this or any other team, and a two year deal puts them basically in the same situation after 2018.  That's why I think they went with a 3 year deal with Castro. 

[Miraclebat]

 

Oh man, disagree. If they trade Dozier, I want it to be entirely focused on pitching prospects - the more and the higher rated the better.

 

The Twins with Castro are fine at catcher. Twins fans have been spoiled with a decade of Mauer - most teams never really have elite catchers. Castro/JRM/Garver/Turner/Rortvedt is a perfectly acceptable amount of catching depth. It's not going to be a position of strength unless Garver or Rortvedt take big jumps but it's not going to be what keeps the team out of the playoffs.

 

Pitching will be. The Twins need an influx of pitching prospects. If you trade Dozier (and you should) that's got to be the focus. We aren't signing the next Jon Lester, we need to find pitching within.

Agree on the pitching needed...but we had similar catching prospects (to Castro) in Herrmann and Butera....except they both hit better than Castro over the last three years.

[ThejacKmp]

 

I think the Twins got duped with JRM.  The Yankees already traded off a catcher this year too, one who looks better than JRM ever did.  

Sure, give JRM a shot in spring training.  But if he still can't block pitches, throw out runners, or hit the ball, let's hope they don't hesitate to make Garver the backup and leave JRM at AAA.

 

I think it's way too early to say they got duped. That said, it was a terrible year.

 

It's hard to quantify the catching part of it - there aren't easy stats and you end up in scouting reports and hearsay. But the hitting part is something I think he'll bounce back on. Over 99 MLB games and 257 PA in 2014 and 2015, JRM put up a .718 OPS. He also hit every step up through the majors, posting .700+ OPS each level. Last year was awfulness for a full year but just as we all were cautious when Danny Santana had one great year in a series of average years, we should be wary of dismissing JRM for one awful year in a series of decent years. He should be able to hit at an above-average rate for a catcher.

 

So I think he's a fine backup catcher and would rather see Garver down in AAA catching and playing every day. If Garver has an impressive 1/2 to 2/3 of a year, maybe he can force a platoon that helps his development.