Article: REPORT: Twins To Sign Jason Castro

[KirbyDome89]

 

An unspectacular move but the kind of prudent, smart move a team with a trash fire for a pitching staff needs going forward.

^^^^ This all day...

 

I'm lukewarm on the signing. Castro is an upgrade, albeit a slight one. The contract is good and he isn't exactly blocking a stud prospect. If the Twins (Molitor) can use the Castro/Murphy platoon effectively its a solid addition.

[jimmer]

 

^^^^ This all day...

 

I'm lukewarm on the signing. Castro is an upgrade, albeit a slight one. The contract is good and he isn't exactly blocking a stud prospect. If the Twins (Molitor) can use the Castro/Murphy platoon effectively its a solid addition.

we'd have to actually have some stud prospects in order for any to be blocked on this team ;-)

[jud6312]

So, have we established whether or not pitch framing is a skill? If someone could clarify for me, that'd be great.

 

I want to be excited by this, but I just can't. Pitch framing at the 5th best clip in baseball doesn't make up for the declining offensive numbers and declining CS %.

 

I hope I'm wrong and I'm sure several of you will tell me just how wrong I am, but I foresee this ending the same way the last FA catcher signing did.

[DaveW]

So, have we established whether or not pitch framing is a skill? If someone could clarify for me, that'd be great.

 

I want to be excited by this, but I just can't. Pitch framing at the 5th best clip in baseball doesn't make up for the declining offensive numbers and declining CS %.

 

I hope I'm wrong and I'm sure several of you will tell me just how wrong I am, but I foresee this ending the same way the last FA catcher signing did.

Yeah, this is my feeling, 1 or even 2 year deal would be fine, 3? Would the pohlads allow us to move on from another deal if Castro continues to decline?

 

I just hope this doesn't take the focus off the fact that they should be actively looking to get some legit catching prospects in the system as well.

[King]

 

So, have we established whether or not pitch framing is a skill? If someone could clarify for me, that'd be great.

 

I want to be excited by this, but I just can't. Pitch framing at the 5th best clip in baseball doesn't make up for the declining offensive numbers and declining CS %.

 

I hope I'm wrong and I'm sure several of you will tell me just how wrong I am, but I foresee this ending the same way the last FA catcher signing did.

Pitch Framing is definitely a skill (otherwise called receiving). That has been 100% established. Umpires play a factor as well as a few other things but for the most part those are accounted for in the numbers. Throwing out baserunners relies a lot on the pitcher, and there are some smart organizations like the Rays who very well ignore it by employing a catcher like Hank Conger, who can't throw out a runner to save his life (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/hank-congers-jon-lester-season-behind-the-plate/)

 

I don't think Castros offense is declining more than he has settled into what his true talent level is, ~85 wRC+ bat who hits for a low average with a good walk rate and has a decent amount of pop. The only thing I see to be concerned about is the rising strikeout rate, but his swinging strike% has been fairly steady aside from a spike in 2015 so it might just be nothing.

Edited November 23, 2016 by King

[jud6312]

 

Pitch Framing is definitely a skill (otherwise called receiving). That has been 100% established. Umpires play a factor as well as a few other things but for the most part those are accounted for in the numbers. Throwing out baserunners relies a lot on the pitcher, and there are some smart organizations like the Rays who very well ignore it by employing a catcher like Hank Conger, who can't throw out a runner to save his life (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/hank-congers-jon-lester-season-behind-the-plate/)

 

I don't think Castros offense is declining more than he has settled into what his true talent level is, ~85 wRC+ bat who hits for a low average with a good walk rate and has a decent amount of pop. The only thing I see to be concerned about is the rising strikeout rate, but his swinging strike% has been fairly steady aside from a spike in 2015 so it might just be nothing.

Got it. Pitch framing. Thanks for the clarification.

[South Dakota Tom]

I'm a big fan of this move.    Everyone's blueprint included improving the 2 spot, and we just did with the best framer available.

 

Just seeing the .gif of him receiving gave me a p*** shiver.    Ask a pitcher what it means to have someone frame every one of your pitches instead of sweeping their glove away from the strike zone as they receive a   ball tailing outside.    Confidence.   Is.   Ginormous.    This is a signing that tells your entire pitching staff "you aren't as bad as you were made to believe" and "we are out to fix this" simultaneously.    Hoping for Murphy/Centeno/Garver to cover that hole?    Hoping for an injured Ramos or what, exactly?    You want to criticize this move, run a happier scenario at catcher by me....

Edited November 23, 2016 by South Dakota Tom

[DocBauer]

I swear I posted earlier but I guess it didn't take. No matter. I like this move a ton. But I admit I'm shocked. I just didn't see it happening, or so quickly, and frankly, as rumors flew, I thought it would take more than $8M per.

 

In my blueprint, I talked about Castro. I just honestly didn't think it would happen, so I quickly moved on to other ideas/options.

 

Look, Castro is not a savior for the team as a whole, or the pitching staff as a unit. But a catcher who can call a game, throw decently, steal some strikes, etc, is a real quality get for this team. The fact that he bats LH and does well against RH pitching is a huge bonus. A catcher can't play every day. Murphy and Garver provide an interesting back up/platoon scenario that can work really well if the manager just approaches it logically.

 

Now, another infielder when Dozier is traded, one bullpen piece, and a competent 4th OF piece and I'm really encouraged. First step done!

[Kwak]

 

Sorry if I'm getting you mixed up with someone else Kwak, but weren't you making declarative statements that Castro would not sign here?

I responded to your quip (in another thread) "weak free agent class", with "...It appears Catcher is a target for a free agent signing (success probability isn't all that high sadly)." I don't consider that a declarative statement that Castro wouldn't sign here--only skeptical that the Twins would actually succeed at signing Castro. Skeptical vs. Declarative--quite different. 

[zchrz]

Great pitch framer, questionable blocking skills, noodle arm, mediocre bat.  Hes no world beater but he at least has one legit mlb skill and is passable at others.  Good catchers are very hard to acquire unless its through your minor leagues or through your wallet at the top of the free agent pool.

 

I like this addition, watching Suzuki/ Doumit for a few years made me pine for DruBu and his defense.  I do wish Castro was better against the running game but then he would have cost more and had a larger market.     

[HitInAPinch]

 

Yeah, this is my feeling, 1 or even 2 year deal would be fine, 3? Would the pohlads allow us to move on from another deal if Castro continues to decline?

I just hope this doesn't take the focus off the fact that they should be actively looking to get some legit catching prospects in the system as well.

From what I've seen, MN MiLB needs a lot of legit prospects, period.  Another rebuild job....

[diehardtwinsfan]

All this talk about framing makes me wish that baseball automated balls and strikes. I don't know if these metrics are accurate or not, but if being a better framer makes that much of a difference, then baseball really needs to rethink its approach to calling strikes.

[HitInAPinch]

From LEN 3's article on Castro:

 

"Framing pitches is Castro’s strength. He had 96 more strikes called last season than what was expected, according to StatCorner.com. That was fifth best among all catchers. Suzuki was minus-38 in the same category."

 

So, were looking at an improvement of +134 strikes called?

 

I honestly think, baring a trade,  this is the best solution the Twins could find.  There just aren't any Johnny Bench's or Pudge Rodriguez's around anymore.

 

If a Dozier trade actually goes down, I'd hope a catching prospect is part of it.  Murphy was supposed to be that guy.  And could still be.  I want some backup for the backstop position.

Edited November 23, 2016 by HitInAPinch

[roger]

Great signing. One question, Seth. This puts the 40-man back at 40. Who gets outrighted to Rochester to make room so they can make the #1 selection in the Rule 5?

[diehardtwinsfan]

A swing of a 134 is 1.3 strikes a game (assuming he catches 100 games).  Not sure that's nearly as a big of a deal if that's the case.

 

My two cents:

 

1) They clearly don't have confidence in Murphy/Turner/Garver.  Turner is already a big question mark with the bat as it is.

 

2)  3 years is likely what they had to pay to get him. I'd have preferred a 1 or 2 year deal as well, but I'm guessing that was the price you pay.

 

3)  There's not much out there for quantifying the value of a catcher defensively. If our staff takes a big 180, that's good evidence that there's something there that the metrics don't catch.

 

I don't hate the signing, though to be clear, I don't love it either. Castro is kind of meh for me. As bad as our defense was there, I'm not going to argue, and I don't see Castro's bat as any worse that Suzuki.  If anything, Castro can help Garver in particular on the defensive side of things, which could be very beneficial long term given that Garver will likely be an above average hitter at C.

[laloesch]

 

Pitch framing is a skill. Castro has the ability to turn close pitches that are balls into strikes. Suzuki did not have this ability (in fact, he was so bad that he turned close strikes into balls). I'm certain it will have a positive effect on the Twins pitching staff. It won't turn them into Houstons pitching staff magically (obviously), but it will have a positive effect.

 

I'd love to see a statistic of this "turned close strikes into balls."

[Mr. Brooks]

I responded to your quip (in another thread) "weak free agent class", with "...It appears Catcher is a target for a free agent signing (success probability isn't all that high sadly)." I don't consider that a declarative statement that Castro wouldn't sign here--only skeptical that the Twins would actually succeed at signing Castro. Skeptical vs. Declarative--quite different.

Yes, I apologize Kwak. I knew I should have gone back and checked first.

I got your post above confused with another in a different thread that said Castro will have bids from contending teams which excludes the Twins.

Sorry again.

[laloesch]

 

A swing of a 134 is 1.3 strikes a game (assuming he catches 100 games).  Not sure that's nearly as a big of a deal if that's the case.

 

My two cents:

 

1) They clearly don't have confidence in Murphy/Turner/Garver.  Turner is already a big question mark with the bat as it is.

 

2)  3 years is likely what they had to pay to get him. I'd have preferred a 1 or 2 year deal as well, but I'm guessing that was the price you pay.

 

3)  There's not much out there for quantifying the value of a catcher defensively. If our staff takes a big 180, that's good evidence that there's something there that the metrics don't catch.

 

I don't hate the signing, though to be clear, I don't love it either. Castro is kind of meh for me. As bad as our defense was there, I'm not going to argue, and I don't see Castro's bat as any worse that Suzuki.  If anything, Castro can help Garver in particular on the defensive side of things, which could be very beneficial long term given that Garver will likely be an above average hitter at C.

 

That's about how i feel as well.  This is a meh signing.  

 

I'm not excited about this signing for a number of reasons and let's stop sugar coating Castro as something he's not.  

 

First of all, his bat is bad, not mediocre... bad.  The last two seasons he's failed to hit higher than .211.  That atrocious even for a catcher.  On defense it doesn't get a whole lot better either.  I've seen a ton of hype here about pitch framing this, pitch framing that.  In 2015 base runners stole 42 out of 43 attempts and his weak arm is well document in Astros territory.  

 

So was this signing ONLY for pitch framing because he doesn't do a whole lot else particularly well?  Too me this is spending money for the sake of spending money on mediocre talent when we could have just rolled with Murphy and Garver or signed Drew Butera as a stop gap measure for two years 4 mil and gotten comparable results.      

Edited November 23, 2016 by laloesch

[luckycharmguy]

w00t!

[old nurse]

 

So, have we established whether or not pitch framing is a skill? If someone could clarify for me, that'd be great.

 

I want to be excited by this, but I just can't. Pitch framing at the 5th best clip in baseball doesn't make up for the declining offensive numbers and declining CS %.

 

I hope I'm wrong and I'm sure several of you will tell me just how wrong I am, but I foresee this ending the same way the last FA catcher signing did.

The proponents of pitch framing say yes while ignoring past studies showing that it is not a consistent skill. It is not called evenly,  with effects for score and inning.  

[twinssporto]

This is a decent signing.  The added defensive help and framing qualities Castro possesses is all positive. The bat could turn around too...After all, we will have a new hitting coach soon.  Maybe he can work a miracle with Castro's bat.

[laloesch]

 

This is a decent signing.  The added defensive help and framing qualities Castro possesses is all positive. The bat could turn around too...After all, we will have a new hitting coach soon.  Maybe he can work a miracle with Castro's bat.

 

Three straight seasons of sub .220 hitting.  Will have their work cut out for them.

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

I'd love to see a statistic of this "turned close strikes into balls."

 

 

http://www.statcorner.com/CatcherReport.php

 

zball% is percentage of pitches that should be a strike that are called a ball.

ostr% is the percentage of pitches that should be a ball that are called a strike.

 

 

[nicksaviking]

If this signing infuses the pitchers with more confidence, even if it's only a placebo, it's probably worth it. Not sure that it will, but signing a defensive catcher is really about getting the most out of your pitchers.

 

I'd like this deal a lot better if the team also signed Geovany Soto to complement him. Probably not in the cards but he'd be cheap and we really have no clue what is going on in Falvey's head.

[Pardon My Dinger]

Isn't pitch framing...like...cheating, kind of? 

[Vanimal46]

 

Isn't pitch framing...like...cheating, kind of? 

Woah man... It's way to early for our minds to be blown like this.

http://img.pandawhale.com/post-28553-Steve-Jobs-mind-blown-gif-HD-T-pVbd.gif

[ericchri]

Baby steps are okay, we have a long way to go.  A slight improvement is still a slight improvement, especially one that seems primarily geared to helping our pitching staff.  Sure a lot of days that 1 or 2 extra strikes may not have a huge influence on the game, but in 162 games (well, I suppose he'd be likely to start 100 or so of those), isn't it possible that it's the difference once or twice between the starter getting shelled and not making it out of the second inning vs. barely squeaking out of a mess and then managing a quality start or the like?  There's a lot of tiny benefits that will compound over the course of a season for something like that.

[Doomtints]

 

You're ignoring pitch framing in your WAR calculations, for whatever reason.

 

For good reason.  Castro's superior pitch framing means that he gets 0.92 strikes called per game that should be balls.  

That's such dominance it just makes one tremble inside.  A world series is inevitable.

 

[USAFChief]

That's about how i feel as well.  This is a meh signing.  

 

I'm not excited about this signing for a number of reasons and let's stop sugar coating Castro as something he's not.  

 

First of all, his bat is bad, not mediocre... bad.  The last two seasons he's failed to hit higher than .211.  That atrocious even for a catcher.  On defense it doesn't get a whole lot better either.  I've seen a ton of hype here about pitch framing this, pitch framing that.  In 2015 base runners stole 42 out of 43 attempts and his weak arm is well document in Astros territory.  

 

So was this signing ONLY for pitch framing because he doesn't do a whole lot else particularly well?  Too me this is spending money for the sake of spending money on mediocre talent when we could have just rolled with Murphy and Garver or signed Drew Butera as a stop gap measure for two years 4 mil and gotten comparable results.

 

Speaking of turning Castro into something he's not, you might want to double check your 2015 caught stealing data.

 

As an aside, consider adding data over and above batting average to evaluate offense.

[Doomtints]

 

Unfortunately, they get paid what the market dictates. Thin market drives up cost. That's why I feel such measuring sticks are silly.

 

Since the Braves were also chasing Castro, why not trade for the Braves catcher who was BETTER at pitch framing than Castro was and let them land Castro?  This would have saved money and the Braves are no doubt prospect hunting.  

 

Suzuki was signed many years ago and was still one of the highest paid catchers in the league -- more than Ramos.  So is it *really* true that the Twins are paying market value, or is this just what we want to believe?

 

Seeing as we are looking at a 1.1 WAR player who will get an 1 extra called strike per game, why not supplant him with trades for the #7 best paid player at each position?  This seems to be the bar.  Would any of these guys have a bigger impact than Castro?  

 

Freddie Freeman 6.5 WAR

Daniel Murphy 4.6 WAR

Martin Prado 3.8 WAR

Andrelton Simmons 4.2 WAR

Jon Lester 5.3 WAR

Lorenzo Cain 2.9 WAR

 

Don't get the wrong idea here.  I think the Castro signing is a good move and it's pushing things the right direction.  But we need to temper our enthusiasm a bit.  I don't want to hear people complaining for the next three years about how he can't hit and can't block pitches.  (May and  Berrios are both wild, remember).  And yeah, the Twins paid a premium price for him ... that needs to be called out.  I'm all for the Twins spending more, let's hope they're consistent about it and not throwing money into a hole by making this the one position where they open up the wallet.

Edited November 23, 2016 by Doomtints