Article: Life After Plouffe

[Nick Nelson]

"Don't get too attached to your favorite Twins" was the leading advice in Phil Miller's column for the Star Tribune late last week, his primary takeaway from an annual question-and-answer session between the front office and season ticket holders.

 

It didn't take long for the warning to ring true.After speaking about "very difficult decisions" on Thursday, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine made their first one on Friday, announcing the release of Trevor Plouffe after a dozen years in the organization.

 

Plouffe was a first-round draft pick out of high school back in 2004, and successfully turned himself into a quality power-hitting corner infielder in the majors. However, after emerging with a breakout 24-homer campaign in 2012, he never really improved.

 

And so, facing a 2017 price tag that was going to approach $9 million, Minnesota's new braintrust elected to move on.

 

Let's examine the fallout of this decision:

 

Who's on Third?

 

In their Q&A session Thursday, Levine foreshadowed the outrighting of Plouffe by stating that third base was "most logically" where Miguel Sano would end up.

 

Now there is nothing standing in Sano's way, so it appears that he'll now have the chance to entrench himself at the hot corner. While others like Eduardo Escobar and Jorge Polanco could be in line for occasional starts, Sano is in all likelihood going to be the man at third base for the foreseeable future.

 

He showed good flashes in his time there this year amidst a medley of errors. Hopefully with a full offseason to focus on honing his skills (and tightening up his physique), the cannon-armed Sano can fulfill his potential defensively at a position where he has spent most his time as a pro.

 

Replacing a reliably solid commodity in Plouffe with a question mark like Sano does magnify the importance of having a strong glove to the right at shortstop. In my opinion, Polanco should not be an option. We'll see if Falvey and Levine agree.

 

Dominoes in the Infield and Lineup

 

With Sano presumably heading to third base while Joe Mauer remains at first, the designated hitter spot is open. Right now Kennys Vargas looks like the favorite to be penciled in as DH. Despite batting just .230 during his limited time with the Twins in 2017, he provided enough power and patience to be a quality producer.

 

As a switch-hitting slugger who can frequently spell Mauer at first base, Vargas is a good fit in the lineup. With Byung Ho Park coming back from wrist surgery and looking to rebound, there will be healthy competition for the job. The Twins would be ill advised to give up on another talented power hitter after letting Adam Walker slip away to the Brewers last week.

 

Speaking of power, the Twins are losing some with Plouffe, who could be counted on for 20 to 25 homers when healthy. But pop from the right side is already a strength in the Minnesota lineup with Sano and Brian Dozier (for now) in place. Between Vargas and Park, making up for the loss of Plouffe's thump shouldn't be an issue.

 

Payroll Implications

 

Shedding Plouffe's 2017 commitment provides the Twins with dramatically more financial flexibility. Wherever their spending cap lies, the front office now has considerably more room before reaching it.

 

As you can see in the payroll breakdown below from the Offseason Handbook, releasing Plouffe will free up about $9 million. That would of course be helpful toward signing a free agent like Jason Castro, who has now received an offer from the Twins according to Darren Wolfson.

 

Download attachment: payroll1.png

 

With Plouffe out of the picture, the current estimated payroll stands at around $90 million, which is $15 million short of where they started in 2016. (Worth noting: it sounds like the Twins are viewing the $4 million they shipped to the Angels along with Ricky Nolasco as an expense toward next year, so the current figure may sit closer to $95 million.)

 

What's Next for Plouffe?

 

After accruing nearly 3,000 plate appearances as a Minnesota Twin, Plouffe is now a free agent. He shouldn't have a hard time finding work.

 

The 30-year-old is a professional hitter who is streaky in spurts but extremely consistent overall. Everyone who has watched him during his time in Minnesota has seen Plouffe light it up during red-hot slugging streaks (most memorably a power surge in 2012 that saw him blast 18 homers in 40 games) and flounder during prolonged slumps.

 

But year after year, he ends up within shouting distance of his lifetime .727 OPS. Even this season, while injuries forced him to miss nearly half the games and nagged him on the field, he finished with rate stats that were essentially identical to his career averages.

 

Plouffe made 13 of his 80 starts at first base this year and looked very capable, helping his case as a versatile piece. Plenty of teams are seeking help at corner infield spots and would welcome some extra power in the lineup. His career .809 OPS could appeal to those seeking platoon assets.

 

Coming off an injury-riddled campaign, it's highly unlikely that the veteran infielder will receive a salary exceeding $8 million, as he would have through arbitration, but he might be able to land a multi-year deal given his age and track record.

 

What's Next for the Twins?

 

Plouffe was one of six arbitration-eligible Twins players, leaving five more that the team must make decisions on: Hector Santiago, Kyle Gibson, Brandon Kintzler, Ryan Pressly and Eduardo Escobar. At this point it seems safe to say the front office is planning on keeping all of those players, because otherwise they would have likely cleared out their spaces on the 40-man roster.

 

The non-tender deadline is a week from Friday, so Falvey and Co. have until then to make those final judgments.

 

For now, we at Twins Daily bid a fond farewell to Plouffe, who we've enjoyed watching in a Twins uniform for the last seven years.

 

Share your favorite memories of Plouffe, as well as thoughts on the decision and where he might end up, in the comments.

 

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[jimmer]

Vargas was horrible in 2015 and then he was very good in July before going right back to his 2015 ways. He's not some young prospect either.  He's 26, not some young prospect.  We have a great option for DH, Vargas isn't it.

Edited November 21, 2016 by jimmer

[Cory Engelhardt]

Vargas isn't out of options anymore, the twins were granted a 4th option year for him this past week. That said, he hits lefties really well and is just ok against righties. If they wanted to pair someone with him who hits righties really well (say, Mauer?) that would be a useful spot at 1st. They could also let Park be the dh in that role too

[Nick Nelson]

 

Vargas isn't out of options anymore, the twins were granted a 4th option year for him this past week.

Good call, I missed that. Updated the article thanks.

[Nick Nelson]

 

Vargas was horrible in 2015 and then he was very good in July before going right back to his 2015 ways. He's not some young prospect either.  He's 26, not some young prospect.  We have a great option for DH, Vargas isn't it.

He also had a 16% BB rate in Triple-A before coming up. I wouldn't be inclined to give up on a player with his patience and raw power combo, regardless of age.

[TheLeviathan]

Now if we could just open up the other corner and move on....

[Circus Boy]

I see a lot of Papi-potential in Vargas. Hope he lights it up.

[wavedog]

Plouffe had a good run - I remember when he started at 3B there were quite a few fielding misadventures but he made himself into a respectable fielder and found his power stroke.  He is not worth $8M a year so I am totally onboard with the Twins decision but hope he finds a good home and has a few more good seasons playing ball. 

[HitInAPinch]

 

Who's on Third?
 

 

INCORRECT !!!

 

In 1938, the scouting team of Bud Abbot and Lou Costello have clearly defined this:

 

"Who" is on 1st.  "I don't know" is on 3rd.

 

Funny how 78 years ago, the comedy team of Abbot and Costello knew how the Twins would look like in 2016!

 

[Vanimal46]

Plouffe was a valuable piece for the roster when he was hitting in the .750 OPS range making $1-4 million. He's no longer valuable at $8 million without improvement at the plate, and declining skills in the field.

I could see the Brewers or some other rebuilding team giving him a shot to start at 3B for 2 years in the $10-14 million range. He may have to wait until March to sign that kind of contract though.    

[Thrylos]

Unfortunately this happened a year too late.  He should have been traded during last off-season, get something in return, and avoid the Sano to RF embarrassment.   Happened to Pierzynski and Mientkiewicz when better younger players were coming along.  Nothing new here... 

 

It has been noted in several places that Plouffe was a "team leader" and that the Twins will miss him in the locker room.  Just looking at the records of those Twins' teams (when Hunter was not around) and that would be another good reason to cutting the cord...  Time for the "leaders" of the losing teams of this decade to start going... 

Edited November 21, 2016 by Thrylos

[Doomtints]

 

Plouffe was a valuable piece for the roster when he was hitting in the .750 OPS range making $1-4 million. He's no longer valuable at $8 million without improvement at the plate, and declining skills in the field.

I could see the Brewers or some other rebuilding team giving him a shot to start at 3B for 2 years in the $10-14 million range. He may have to wait until March to sign that kind of contract though.    

 

Plouffe could easily be worth $8M if he stays healthy.  Fangraphs has his mediocre 2015 pegged at being worth $19.5M.  Plouffe going back to his 2015 form is not out of the question as that is not exactly a high bar.

 

As fans we need to realize that this move has nothing at all to do with Plouffe and everything to do with Sano.  This doesn't mean it was the wrong move, mind you.  Whichever team lands Plouffe will get a good deal unless he gets injured.  

 

Edited November 21, 2016 by Doomtints

[EddieMatthews]

First and Third base are positions that should be held by productive bats.  The Twins have had a career .727 OPS at third and a post-concussion Mauer at first.  A quick look at other AL teams shows that most have plus .800 OPS at third.  Moving Plouffe off the roster opens up the position for Sano.  We'll see how he handles it.  The money saved by releasing Plouffe should get us a catcher who can handle the pitching staff.  Go Twins!

[Rosterman]

He just became too expensive. Even though we do have someone else that is also too expensive and causing a logjam on the playing field. Sad.

 

[Rosterman]

The logistics of baseball. Ploufee is not worth $8 million a year, or buying into free agency and giving him a multiple year contract. Why? Well, we have a logjam in the 3B/1B/DH and possibly outfield, so he is expendable. Yet we can pay $8 million for multi-years for a catcher. I'm not arguing against the catcher. Just the worth of the player. The team ahs to feel the guy is worth the money, otherwise why do it. He fulfills a need, so you can be competitive and maybe overspend to fgill a perceived weakness. But don't overpay if you don't have a place for a longtime employee.