Article: Seth's Offseason Blueprint

[Seth Stohs]

Many of you have taken the 40 seconds needed to download the Twins Daily Offseason Handbook. In it, you were able to read the run-downs on free agent options, some trade ideas and much, much more. In the end, you saw our consolidated blueprint for the Twins offseason. Today, I am going to post mine.

 

I don’t expect you to agree with each aspect of it. In fact, I may not agree with all aspects of it. What I do encourage you to do is think about what you would recommend the Twins do this offseason and write up a Blog posting or post it in the forum to get feedback from others.We’ll start with the 40-man roster decisions (which will be made on Friday) and work through the arbitration decisions, free agency and a couple of trades. In the end, we’ll see what kind of payroll we’re looking at for 2017.

 

 

40-Man Roster Decisions

 

Earlier this week, I wrote an article showing the top ten players (or more) that the Twins have to consider adding to their 40-man roster or risk losing in the Rule 5 draft.

 

The team is currently sitting at 36 players on their 40-man roster. At this time, I would remove Juan Centeno, Danny Santana and Buddy Boshers to reduce that number to 33.

 

I would then ADD pitchers Fernando Romero and Felix Jorge, catcher Mitch Garver, shortstop Engelb Vielma and outfielders Daniel Palka and Zack Granite to the 40-man roster. That puts the team at 39, allowing them to make a Rule 5 draft pick.

 

Arbitration Decisions

Trevor Plouffe ($9M): Decline. Certainly I would try to trade him, or include him in a trade first, but I think that it makes the most sense for the Twins to non-tender him.

Hector Santiago ($8M): Accept. Not an easy choice, but Santiago posted ERAs of 3.75 or less all four years from 2012-2015. 2016 didn’t go as well, but I’ll take my chances. Again, the Twins need pitching, and he’s been solid.

Eduardo Escobar ($3.5M): Accept. Really a pretty easy choice, but I like the fact that he’s a great team player and has found success in a utility role. The fact that he can play a solid shortstop also is valuable with question marks at the position.

Kyle Gibson ($2.5M): Accept. He was the Twins pitcher of the year in 2015, and injury and ineffectiveness and inconsistency all describe his 2016. So, 2017 is a big year for the right-hander. For the price, worth the time to find out.

Brandon Kintzler ($2.5M): After missing a lot of 2015 with a knee injury, Kintzler came to the Twins on a minor league deal. He was up with the Twins within about a month and ended up their closer. He may not be the prototype for a closer, but he hits 94, throws strikes, lots of grounders. Again, for the money, no reason not to bring him back.

Ryan Pressly ($1.5M): Former Rule 5 pick frequently hit 96-98 on the radar gun a year ago. Pitched way too much early and it certainly affected him as the season went on. However, his stuff is good, and definitely worth keeping around.

 

FREE AGENCY

 

CATCHER

I’m in agreement that the Twins should sign a catcher. I just have a hard time handing out a long-term, big money contract to a catcher who either is, or is about to reach, 30 years old. So, count me out on the likes of Wilson Ramos and Matt Wieters, and I’m thinking that the market for Jason Castro will cause him to potentially get a fourth year or more per year than many think.

 

So, what do I want in a catcher? Ideally, I’d like to see a good defensive catcher. With John Ryan Murphy and Mitch Garver in the picture, I would like to see a left-handed bat on a one-year contract. Enter the likes of Dioner Navarro and Alex Avila. Give me Avila on a one-year deal with a base between $2-2.5 million with some incentives based on playing time. He’s a smart catcher who plays good defense. He also knows the American League Central well.

 

I would like to see nearly a 50-50 split between John Ryan Murphy and Alex Avila to start the season, taking advantage of platoon splits as appropriate. Mitch Garver is close, so he can be recalled if (or when) there is an injury. Murphy is good defensively, and he will (most likely) hit much better than he did last year. Plus, he’s still going to be 25 years old until the middle of May.

 

BULLPEN

 

First, I hope Glen Perkins comes back and becomes the reliever we remember. I also feel that assuming that will happen is a little naive (maybe) and should not be relied upon, at least not to start the season. So, I won’t include him, and I will hope really hard that he is able to come back.

 

Second, I believe in the young arms that are working their way up. However, as we have seen, it doesn’t always happen as fast as we want. AA and AAA aren’t necessarily easy, and despite college or low-minor league level success, adjustments need to be made and lessons learned. Of course, injuries also factor into the timeline. JT Chargois, Mason Melotakis, Nick Burdi, Zack Jones, and others have all missed significant time due to injuries. Trevor Hildenberger missed August with an elbow injury. So, as much as I would like to see these guys all come up and become what we think they can be, we need to have alternate plans. That said, I am hopeful that we will see Burdi, Melotakis, Hildenberger and Jake Reed by midseason.

 

So, I want to bring in one hard-throwing, strikeout reliever. I’ve been a big fan of David Hernandez since well before his 2013 Tommy John surgery. In 2016, he struck out 80 (and walked 32) in 72.2 innings for the Orioles. His overall numbers aren’t great, so I’d offer him a 1 year, $3.75 million deal which includes an option for 2018 at $4.5 million (with a $250,000 buyout). I would give him the opportunity to close, along with Ryan Pressly and JT Chargois.

 

TRADE

 

I am not a fan of trading Brian Dozier. At all. Losing him would certainly hurt the team’s offense significantly. Moving Jorge Polanco to second based and putting someone else at shortstop will hurt offensively especially. So, in order for me as GM to deal him, I will have to receive a top young starting pitcher. Someone who is right up there with Jose Berrios (or higher) in prospect rankings but also at or very near the big league level. And more, since as we know, there is no such thing as a pitching prospect.

 

Recently, it was reported that the Dodgers are exploring the idea of acquiring Ian Kinsler from the Tigers. Kinsler has a no-trade clause, and he’s five years older than Dozier. Certainly the Falvey/Levine regime has already had some sort of discussion with the Dodgers regarding Dozier.

 

One of Nick’s ideas in the Offseason Handbook for a Dozier Deal involved Jose De Leon. Like Jose Berrios, De Leon is a right-hander from Puerto Rico. He was the Dodgers 24th round pick in 2013 out of college in Louisiana. MLB Pipeline currently ranks De Leon as their #32 prospect, the 6th best right-handed pitching prospect in baseball. This is the same range that Berrios was a year ago.

 

It would take a bit more for me to pull the trigger on the deal though. I would like Ross Stripling, who turns 27 next week, who had a solid debut in 2016. He pitched for Chattanooga in 2013 before missing the entire 2014 season and the first half of the 2015 season following Tommy John surgery. Another year post surgery and there is a chance he can be a mid-rotation starter.

 

The other player I would ask for is veteran Scott Van Slyke. The 30-year-old outfielder has been a part-time player throughout his career. However, in his career, he has hit .262/.366/.479 (.845) against left-handed pitching. I would like to see him platooned with Eddie Rosario in left field. With Rosario and Kepler able to play centerfield at times to give Buxton a day off, the Twins don’t really need a traditional fourth outfielder. Van Slyke is in his first year of arbitration. His 2016 season ended in early August with a wrist injury. (If the Twins can get Van Slyke I would DFA Robbie Grossman. If the Twins can’t get Van Slyke, Grossman remains the 4th outfielder.)

 

I would add Michael Tonkin to the deal as well. (Don’t get me wrong. I fully admit that if Tonkin isn’t traded in the offseason, he would be removed from the 40-man roster, if it were me. But a deal to the Dodgers would at least send him to a winning team in his home state. With Justin Turner potentially being lost via free agency, the Dodgers may have interest in Trevor Plouffe.

 

And if I don’t get a top, near-ready pitching prospect and a second-tier, near-ready starting pitching for him, I have a hard time trading him. I would happily keep him on the roster.

 

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Before getting to my Roster Blueprint, be sure to download a copy of the Offseason Handbook so that you can create your own Twins blueprint.

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Seth’s Blueprint Roster

 

HITTERS

 

C - John Ryan Murphy - $0.5M

C - Alex Avila - $2.5M

1B - Joe Mauer - $23.0M

2B - Jorge Polanco - $0.5M

3B - Miguel Sano - $0.5M

SS - Engelb Vielma - $0.5M

LF - Eddie Rosario - $0.5M

CF - Byron Buxton - $0.5M

RF - Max Kepler - $0.5M

DH - Kennys Vargas - $0.5M

IF - Eduardo Escobar - $3.5M

OF - Scott Van Slyke - $1.3M

PH/1B - Byungho Park - $2.75M

HITTER TOTAL - $37.05M

 

The theme is much more defense-minded, which should also help the pitching. Murphy and Avila will help behind the plate. Polanco should be better at second base than shortstop. The outfield is young, has great range and good arms. Finally, the name that stands out is Engelb Vielma. Will he hit? Will he hit for power? Nope. Don’t even think about it. Will he play great defense, showing hands, range and a big arm? Yes. The offense will take a step backwards, but the defense should be leaps and bounds better. Except at third base where it will be all about the offense. There are several platoon opportunities including first base DH and left field. Having Escobar will be important as Vielma transitions to the big leagues.

 

 

PITCHERS

 

SP - Ervin Santana - $13.5M

SP - Hector Santiago - $8.0M

SP - Kyle Gibson - $2.5M

SP - Ross Stripling - $0.5M

SP - Jose De Leon/Adalberto Mejia/Jose Berrios - $0.5M

STARTING PITCHERS TOTAL - $25.0M

 

Weird things seem to happen, whether it is injury or poor performance. Having plenty of depth at starting pitcher is important. At some point, De Leon, Mejia and Berrios will be part of the rotation. Trading Santana this winter doesn’t make sense to me, but I would consider trading him at the deadline in July. The same can be said for Santiago. The five starting pitchers who began the season in Ft. Myers and ended in Chattanooga (Stephen Gonsalves, Kohl Stewart, Tyler Jay, Randy Rosario and Felix Jorge) along with Fernando Romero likely won’t be ready until at least 2018. This gives them a chance to develop at their own, appropriate pace, while the three (or four) younger starters mentioned above get their shot in the big leagues.

 

RP - David Hernandez ($3.75M)

RP - Brandon Kintzler ($2.5M)

RP - JT Chargois ($0.5M)

RP - Ryan Pressly ($0.5M)

RP - Taylor Rogers ($0.5M)

RP - Trevor May ($0.5M)

RP - Tyler Duffey ($0.5M)

BULLPEN PITCHERS TOTAL - $8.75M

 

In the bullpen, there are some solid arms with a lot of talent and velocity who need innings and situations in the big leagues. That will soon be the case for others, like Pat Light, Reed, Burdi, Hildenberger, and Melotakis who should all surface in 2017 as well. The bullpen could be dominant in 2018. I would retain Ryan O'Rourke as the guy ready to come up when the Twins are ready to face a lot of lefties or just need an arm.

 

Also under contract - Glen Perkins ($6.5M) and Phil Hughes($13.2M).

 

Total Roster Salary - $90.5M

 

SUMMARY

 

$90.5 million. Yeah, that’s right. And when some read that, it will not be taken well. But I’m thinking 2018 and 2019 more than I’m thinking 2017. So I have a mix of youth with a few veterans. But it’s all about development of the young players, whether that is at-bats or innings pitched in the big leagues, or allowing a little extra time in AA or AAA to be more ready.

 

Think about a 2018 rotation that includes Jose Berrios, Jose De Leon, Adalberto Mejia and Stephen Gonsalves, all guys who could be Top 100 prospects sometime between 2016 and 2017. Add in the potential of Fernando Romero and the pitching staff has the ability to be different and exciting by the second half of 2019.

 

While the focus was mostly on defense with my moves at catcher and shortstop, the offense should be OK, even with the losses of Dozier and Plouffe. Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario, Kennys Vargas and Byungho Park could all be better offensively too.

 

I strongly considered Jason Castro, but it seems like he is going to wind up getting more than the three years, $21 million that we predicted. His defense is great, but his offense isn’t worth the extra year or extra annual salary he will get. I couldn't justify that for a guy who will turn 30 during the middle of year one of such a deal.

 

I did also consider Ian Desmond as a free agent signing at shortstop. He had a nice 2016 in his one-year, make-good deal with the Rangers. He played in the outfield and hit pretty well. But, he isn’t a great defensive shortstop and his offense went downward for three straight seasons before 2016. So, four years and $60 million (or more) seemed too much. If he would sign for two years and $32-35 million, I would strongly consider it.

 

It’s not the time for the Twins to sign one of the not-so-great starting pitching options. It doesn’t make sense to spend a ton of money on a closer. It’s time to let the players that Terry Ryan and his regime developed play in the big leagues. In doing so, it’ll likely mean ten to 15 more wins than in 2016. And, maybe spend that extra $10 million adding to the front office staff, the analytics team, the medical staff and other areas in need of being beefed up.

 

So, what do you think? 2017 is about improvement and development. It’s an opportunity for Derek Falvey and Thad Levine to evaluate everything, from the players on the field to the size and functionality of the front office.

 

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[ToddlerHarmon]

Headed in the right direction, with the right people being pushed to stay on the roster by the almost-readies mentioned. Love the idea of being aggressive with Vielma. Quibbles would be not mentioning that May should get a chance to start, and that Park and ORourke will have to perform in order to stick. Also, I would not demand too much for Santana/Santiago. Having opportunities for the young starters is worth a lot in itself.

[sorney]

Not a bad blueprint at all, and probably fairly reasonable.....but UGH!  It just goes to show how far off the Twins are.

[mazeville]

This is the best one yet.

 

I especially like the Vielma inclusion: If you're going to trade Dozier, give the defense a shot. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Headed in the right direction, with the right people being pushed to stay on the roster by the almost-readies mentioned. Love the idea of being aggressive with Vielma. Quibbles would be not mentioning that May should get a chance to start, and that Park and ORourke will have to perform in order to stick. Also, I would not demand too much for Santana/Santiago. Having opportunities for the young starters is worth a lot in itself.

 

In my original, I had Trevor May in the starting rotation. But once I made the (non-real) trades and had two more starters, I decided to say that he's just going to work out of the bullpen. I think he can be a decent starter, a #3 or #4, but I think he can be a very good reliever. The injuries have been a concern, but maybe all this new medical information will help with that. 

 

I think the Park/O'Rourke needing to perform is a given. O'Rourke would know that Mason Melotakis is getting close, or really any of the relievers. Also, the health of Glen Perkins factors into that as well. 

 

I guess I refuse to just give away Santana, and I do like the idea of a couple of veterans on the pitching staff. Santiago is from Puerto Rico, which is where both Berrios and De Leon are from. I see that as a positive, and I think Santiago can be better than what we saw last year. Santana is just a good, solid #3 starter. Very reliable. Has always been durable, and with the market for bad starting pitchers being so high, the Twins should be able to get something good for Santana. They shouldn't settle. At the trade deadline, they can evaluate where the team is.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Not a bad blueprint at all, and probably fairly reasonable.....but UGH!  It just goes to show how far off the Twins are.

 

But based on them coming off of a 103-loss season, I don't think they're in all that bad a situation. They have a lot of Top 100 type of talent, with several other key prospects in situations. (Like, Chargois, Rogers, Melotakis, Garver, Rosario, Reed, Burdi, Hildenberger, etc... weren't Top 100 guys, but they can be very good role players on a good team still.)

 

I get that I'm a glass half-full guy. I get that they don't all pan out. I'm OK with that, but the sheer number of potential big leaguers who are now getting an opportunity is encouraging. 

 

I could see this being a fairly competitive team in 2018. Obviously a lot would need to go right for that to happen.

[Thrylos]

 

 

Ryan Pressly ($1.5M): Former Rule 5 pick frequently hit 96-98 on the radar gun a year ago. Pitched way too much early and it certainly affected him as the season went on. However, his stuff is good, and definitely worth keeping around.

Data makes this not a true statement, since his second half was pretty similar, if not better, to his first half, and pretty there with his career numbers.

2016
1st half: 3.75 FIP, 3.88 ERA
2nd half: 3.73 FIP, 3.41 ERA

career: 3.70 FIP, 3.55 ERA

He is a mediocre bullpen arm in his prime.  Can he be usefull as the last guy out of a competitor's pen.  Sure.  So could be Kintzler (3.61 FIP/ 3.15 ERA 2016, 3.67 FIP, 3.33 ERA career). 

To compete, pick one and keep him at the end of your pen (got to get rid of replacement level O'Rourke, 4.11 FIP/ 3.96 ERA 2016, 4.42 FIP/4.98 ERA career, as well.)  Then add 6 pitcher better than them ahead of them, if you want to build a pen that would help you contend. I'd pick Pressly because he is the younger and cheaper of the two (and his periferals are better), but Kintzler has to go, esp. if Molitor is planing to use him as a set up man.

 

Also, where is Duffey?  He could be one of these 6 arms  in the pen, and he could be a real asset there... 

 

If the Twins do not trade Santana this season, when his value is relatively high and there are not too many good FAs, it will be a failure.  An 103 loss team has no business trotting a 34 year old with half a UCL who would be a decent number 4 in a competitor, as their "Ace".   I'd definitely put May in the rotation as well.

[Monkeypaws]

Nice plan - my quibble: I'd like the 4th outfielder to provide speed and great defense, neither of which is Grossman.

[DocBauer]

A solid blueprint Seth. Not much different than mine, but with a name change or two. I'd be fine with Castro, but a 4th year would shut that idea down, IMO, and I think he'll have multiple suitors.

 

Not sure I buy Vielma at this point. I still think a FA or smaller trade for a SS/utility guy is in order here.

 

I'm not in a hurry to trade Santana either, and have no problem starting the season with him. I also don't think Santiago is bad at all. I think he just got off on the wrong foot (arm?) with the Twins last season. But with an arm for Dozier, if not two, and May, Berrios and Gibson, I'm not sure it's necessary or prudent to keep both Santana and Santiago.

 

And as someone else asked, where's Duffey?

[Seth Stohs]

 

Also, where is Duffey?  He could be one of these 6 arms  in the pen, and he could be a real asset there... 

 

I knew I forgot someone. I put Duffey in the bullpen. His two-pitch mix should work well in short bursts. That leaves us with just one lefty in the bullpen, but I'm OK with that. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Nice plan - my quibble: I'd like the 4th outfielder to provide speed and great defense, neither of which is Grossman.

 

I didn't include Grossman. Though I don't think Scott Van Slyke is a burner either. But again, Rosario (and Kepler) can play CF if needed. Another option would be giving a guy like Rajai Davis $8-9 million. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

1) I don't love acquiring older players in a Dozier trade (van slyke is a year older than Dozier is, and if he is just going to be a 4th outfielder, facing only lefties, I'd rather acquire a 21 year old with upside who will be at Cedar Rapids or Fort Myers next year.

 

2)I also don't love stripling, but if the front office likes him I am good with that.

 

3) I hate having May back in the bullpen. I think he is a better starter than Gibson and Santiago, and maybe Mejia. I would have high hopes for Berrios and DeLeon (who if this is how it played out, would absolutely be in my rotation day 1, along with May and Santana.

 

4) I hate the "upgrade" of Avila to catcher. He is worse at pitch framing than Suzuki has been. If the front office wants an upgrade, and they can't get Castro (who, I say, who cares about payroll, get him to whatever contract he wants and figure it out later on) I would rather trade for an Austin Barnes or Derek Norris before going with Avila. 

 

5)  I would love an extra signing for the bullpen and for the field, preferably outfield or ss. That's just me. Thanks for putting this out there!

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

Seth, I like the blueprint. I agree with you that I would want to see a big haul in return for Dozier.

 

I see Thrylos caught this above, but I think you forgot Duffey. I would love to see him full-time in the bullpen (you know, like he did in college that got the team interested in the first place). I can imagine a few extra MPH added to his fastball to go with his dominant curve. Two pitches are more than adequate out of the bullpen. He could be your closer right there. Think K-Rod and his curve or (pie-in-the-sky) Hoffman and his changeup. Pair Duffey with the 100-mph guys and he'd be a lights-out change of pace.

[Dantes929]

I don't care if the total payroll is 50 mil with Mauer making half of it.    I like your blueprint.     I would not like it if I didn't believe Sano, Buxton, Kepler, Rosario, Berrios, Duffey, Gibson and May could be better in 2017 than in 2016.   I have always believed that just improving at each position even if it is without changing the roster can have a profound effect on the results.   These are all guys we have been told are talented enough so that improvement is a reasonable expectation

[Mike Sixel]

Not in love with keeping Santana, but not violently opposed to not trading him either.

 

I would want one more young player back from LA......

 

The Vielma part makes me nervous, but it is only a year or so....

[Seth Stohs]

 

I don't love acquiring older players in a Dozier trade (van slyke is a year older than Dozier is, and if he is just going to be a 4th outfielder, facing only lefties, I'd rather acquire a 21 year old with upside who will be at Cedar Rapids or fort Myers next year.

 

I think getting a platoon outfielder as the 3rd guy in a trade where you get two MLB starters (one with big upside) is a steal. They do have to play this season and I'd like them to be somewhat competitive.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I think getting a platoon outfielder as the 3rd guy in a trade where you get two MLB starters (one with big upside) is a steal. They do have to play this season and I'd like them to be somewhat competitive.

 

I actually like this part a lot....

[mazeville]

 

I guess I refuse to just give away Santana, and I do like the idea of a couple of veterans on the pitching staff. Santiago is from Puerto Rico, which is where both Berrios and De Leon are from. I see that as a positive, and I think Santiago can be better than what we saw last year. Santana is just a good, solid #3 starter. Very reliable. Has always been durable, and with the market for bad starting pitchers being so high, the Twins should be able to get something good for Santana. They shouldn't settle. At the trade deadline, they can evaluate where the team is.

 

I think Santana would probably be worth more in a trade at the deadline, anyway - though the Twins should absolutely listen on any offers for him this offseason. 

[HitInAPinch]

I like it.  With a couple mild exceptions.

 

I would not keep Gibson.  I can live with him if he were more than a .500 pitcher that can handle more inning that he does.  More simply put, I'd want Berrios in the rotation more than Gibson. 

 

May:  if not a starter, I see no value as a reliever.  May has back issues that have [apparently] been an issue throughout his career. 

 

Personally:

I'm not counting on either Hughes or Perkins.  Kintzler did just fine last year.

De Leon and Stripling PLUS a mid-high prospect for Dozier.  Considering Kinsler won't waive No Trade, price, age, etc. I think Twins may be in an excellent position to bump up the trade of Dozier.

Vielma?  IDK.  Highest MiLB level, AA. 

 

Overall, I like the emphasis on defense.  Should be a lot of emphasis on that in Spring Training, too.

[beckmt]

Would package Gibson with Dozier to the Pirates for Tallion and other prospects.

If that fails circle back to Dodgers.

[beckmt]

Would package Gibson with Dozier to the Pirates for Tallion and other prospects.

If that fails circle back to Dodgers.

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

I think getting a platoon outfielder as the 3rd guy in a trade where you get two MLB starters (one with big upside) is a steal. They do have to play this season and I'd like them to be somewhat competitive.

 

But wouldn't it be better to get a 20 or 21 with upside who could be more than a platoon player in 2018 or 2019? Then, if you have that (instead of Van Slyke) you can always sign Rajai Davis (or comparable) to be that guy for this year?

[TheLeviathan]

I like this offseason plan, nice work Seth.

 

I like Hernandez as an option.  I think I'd still pony up for Storen or someone like that in hopes of a July trade.  We have room for Storen and hernandez.

[Seth Stohs]

 

But wouldn't it be better to get a 20 or 21 with upside who could be more than a platoon player in 2018 or 2019? Then, if you have that (instead of Van Slyke) you can always sign Rajai Davis (or comparable) to be that guy for this year?

 

We're already pushing it in getting two MLB starters. What are the odds that they would add anyone with potential upside as the third option?

[Cory Engelhardt]

I think pretty high. Dozier is a valuable commodity, and other teams will be offering similar packages. It's not like the Twins have to GIVE him away (even if I want them to find a good deal.)

[Doomtints]

Good to go young with the position players, but I would look for a geriatric looking for one final year like what the Twins did with Hunter.  The start of 2016 was disastrous for the hitting and I think a part of that was they were missing the old timer who could tell them to stop worrying about being perfect.  As you are going even younger than the Twins were in 2015 and 2016, I would supplement with a veteran.

 

As far as pitching, it's almost like there are no wrong answers at this point.  I have yet to see anyone with the magic bullet as unfortunately there isn't one. This is why my feeling is to just blow it all up.  Cut/trade half of what we have, and the other half have a 1-year trial period.  Finish the job next offseason.  

Edited November 17, 2016 by Doomtints

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

I hate the idea of trading Dozier - he's the best player on the team. ONLY if the Twins get at least two MLB ready starters and a third prospect would I even consider trading him. If he's not traded, bring up Vielma and have him and Polanco split duties at SS. Plouffe should be traded. I am not looking for another outfielder – we have a couple waiting in the wings (Palka, Walker). 

 

A good blueprint, though. I like it.

[Jacksson]

Why stop at just Dozier?  Bundle him with Ervin Santana (Dodgers have to match up their rotation against the Giants), Trevor Plouffe ( to replace free-agent 3B Turner at a more affordable price), Stuart Turner, JR Murphy,(for depth - see below), Ryan Pressley (If he is kept, use him to start innings only as he usually puts the first batter on via hit or walk) or Tonkin.

So what do the Twins get back?

C Austin Barnes, C Will Smith, P Brock Stewart, P Julio Urias, OF Yasiel Puig.  If needed, Twins could take on the contract of SS Erisbel Arrebarrera who is not on the 40 man roster and would save the Dodgers some bucks and an embarrassing contract.  Even Danny Santana or Escobar could be sent along to fill the role of the departed Howie Kendricks.  Lots of room for negotiation here. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Doomtints]

 

I hate the idea of trading Dozier - he's the best player on the team. ONLY if the Twins get at least two MLB ready starters and a third prospect would I even consider trading him. If he's not traded, bring up Vielma and have him and Polanco split duties at SS. Plouffe should be traded. I am not looking for another outfielder – we have a couple waiting in the wings (Palka, Walker). 

 

A good blueprint, though. I like it.

 

I think the Twins have players with more potential than Dozier, though sure right now he is one of the best if not the best player on the team.

But at the same time, Dozier is not an elite player.  If the best player on the team has a career OPS+ of 108, you're in trouble.  You won't lose much by letting him go. 

If the market is ripe to dump off a 108 OPS+ guy who is overrated defensively and come out ahead, I don't think any GM would hesitate to trade him.  Dozier is a great player for a team looking to plug that last hole, but on his own he's not going to lead a team to the playoffs.  

Edited November 17, 2016 by Doomtints

[CesarTovar]

Any blueprint needs to start with addressing team defense, which Seth's does.  Simply, better defense makes for better pitching.  Defensive upgrades at catcher, shortstop, and outfield should be a priority.  Second, team speed should also be a priority.  A fourth outfielder cannot have Grossman-like speed.  Should be more like a Royals Dyson-type, someone who can actually steal a base once in a while (Rajai Davis?).  Lastly, obviously, is starting pitching.  Absolutely have to get all starters to go 6+ innings consistently.  If can't find that or do that, then make sure we have a stout bullpen built not from retreads but proven arms with a mix of promising youth.  We could almost trash the entire bullpen and start over.