Article: Top Five Twins Bounce Back Candidates

[Cody Christie]

Minnesota had lots of issues during the 2016 campaign. Pitchers didn't pitch well, hitters were inconsistent, and there were defensive gaffes. After nearly making the playoffs in 2015, the 2016 season was tough to swallow. The 2015 Twins likely overachieved and the 2016 Twins underachieved. Hopefully, the 2017 Twins find a spot somewhere in a middle.

 

Here are five candidates who could rebound in 2017 and help the Twins get back to respectability.

 

Jose Berrios

2016 Stats: 3-7 W-L, 8.02 ERA, 1.87 WHIP, 49 SO, 35 BB, 58.1 IP

Berrios dominated the upper levels of the minor leagues so it was hard to swallow the rough start to his MLB career. One of the biggest problems might have been that Berrios was tipping his pitches. Another issue was his increased walk rate. In the minors, he was touted for his excellent control, 2.5 BB/9, but that number more than doubled (5.4 BB/9) in the majors. Minnesota has been in search of an ace and there's still hope for him to be a front of the rotation hurler.

 

Kyle Gibson

2016 Stats: 6-11 W-L, 5.07 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 104 SO, 55 BB, 147.1 IP

At the end of the 2015 season, Gibson was named the Twins Daily Pitcher of the Year. He finished that season with a respectable 3.84 ERA and 145 SO in 194.2 IP. Gibson started 2016 with a 0-5 record and a 6.05 ERA over his first seven starts. This included missing six weeks with a shoulder injury. From June 28-August 17, he won five of his seven decisions while posting a 4.19 ERA. If he can avoid injury and return to his 2015 form, Gibson should fit back into the middle of the rotation.

 

Trevor Plouffe

2016 Stats: .260/.303/.420, 12 HR, 13 2B, 60 SO, 19 BB, 84 G

The 2016 season was the first time Plouffe failed to play over 110 MLB games since 2011. He suffered through an oblique strain, a strained intercostal muscle, a cracked rib, a groin strain, some knee soreness, and another intercostal strain. When he was on the field, Plouffe put up some respectable numbers. However, he needs show he can stay healthy since next year will be his age-31 season. Plouffe will be a free agent at the end of the season so it would be nice for the Twins to be able to get something for him before the deadline.

 

Eddie Rosario

2016 Stats: .269/.295/.421, 10 HR, 17 2B, 91 SO, 12 BB, 92 G

Rosario hit .294/.340/.484 in seven minor league seasons. On his way to the big leagues, his hit tool was praised and many thought it would translate to baseball's highest level. There were some positive signs in his rookie campaign as he combined for 46 extra-base hits including a MLB leading 15 triples. His average and OBP rose this season but his slugging percentage dropped by almost 40 points. If he can continue to mature as a hitter, he could be the Twins breakout player in 2017.

 

Miguel Sano

2016 Stats: .236/.319/.462, 25 HR, 22 2B, 178 SO, 54 BB, 116 G

In 80 games during the 2015 campaign, Sano hit .269/.385/.530 (146 OPS+) with 17 doubles and 18 home runs. He turned a lot of heads as he hit 13 home runs over his final 48 games. Expectations were high entering 2016 and it was tough for Sano to reach those lofty heights. The year started with the team trying to transition him to the outfield. This experiment failed and it's hard not to think that some of his defensive struggles followed him to the plate. Sano should spend 2017 as a DH and a third baseman and this could be trouble for American League pitchers.

 

Who will have the biggest bounce back season in 2017? Would you add someone else to the list? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

 

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[Cory Engelhardt]

I liked this article. Thank you for posting it. There is always hope.

 

I don't know if the Twins will allow for Rosario and Plouffe to get the available playing time to fully bounce back. If they sign a veteran outfielder, don't you think Rosario is the one to take a platoon/bench spot? And Plouffe, I don't know how much I believe he will be on the team come April, but we'll see. If he is healthy he can contribute, but at what cost to the rest of the roster?

[theBOMisthebomb]

Byung Ho Park would be a wonderful bounce back candidate. If he can get healthy and post some good numbers it could really help. Now, if that happens what to do with Joe Mauer?

[Vanimal46]

Sano and Berrios are the top priorities for bounce back seasons since they're integral players for the future. 

The Twins need any and all pitchers to do well, so let's go Gibson! 

Plouffe's gotta go. 

[mikelink45]

Buxton - we started to see the uptick at the end and if he can be the player that we have expected for the last two years it will be a great move forward.

 

Hughes and Perkins - if either of them comes back to what they were we will have added quality without doing anything but waiting. 

[beckmt]

I believe Plouffe will be gone soon. If you keep him what do you do with Vargas/Park? Most major league clubs know this, so he has no value.

[brvama]

Good article. Just wondering how many you had eliminate to get to the final five. Might have been easier to list the five that aren't in line for a bounce-back season. That is if you can find that many. Seriously, the Twins performance in 16 featured many that could have better years, like those already mentioned.

[ThejacKmp]

This is more of a mini-bounce but Mauer's BABIP from 2004 to 2014 was .348. In 2015 it was .309 and in 2016 it was .301. This hasn't been accompanied by a spike in GB rate and he actually had a career-best LD rate last year so he doesn’t seem to be hitting balls that are more easily turned into outs. He just seems to have been a bit unlucky over the past two years (of course along with an erosion of his hitting tool).

There are some reasons this might drop (I can think of The Shift – though he’s faced that for more than the last two years so there isn't an easy causal relationship) but he's never been a guy who depended on his speed for infield hits so age shouldn’t erode his BABIP. If Mauer gets a bit more luck with the BABIP and returns to closer to normal (say .345) or even has a bit of extra luck (say .370), he could have a nice bounce-back season at age 34 (an .800 OPS?).

[Ernestfickle22]

If Tyler Duffy can come close to his rookie year numbers that would be a huge win for the bullpen or even the rotation lets just hope all these guys can have quality years in 2017!

[Mike Sixel]

 

This is more of a mini-bounce but Mauer's BABIP from 2004 to 2014 was .348. In 2015 it was .309 and in 2016 it was .301. This hasn't been accompanied by a spike in GB rate and he actually had a career-best LD rate last year so he doesn’t seem to be hitting balls that are more easily turned into outs. He just seems to have been a bit unlucky over the past two years (of course along with an erosion of his hitting tool).

There are some reasons this might drop (I can think of The Shift – though he’s faced that for more than the last two years so there isn't an easy causal relationship) but he's never been a guy who depended on his speed for infield hits so age shouldn’t erode his BABIP. If Mauer gets a bit more luck with the BABIP and returns to closer to normal (say .345) or even has a bit of extra luck (say .370), he could have a nice bounce-back season at age 34 (an .800 OPS?).

 

I wonder what his hard hit ball rate is right now......I'd bet that's the issue.

[gunnarthor]

I'm not sure if Sano, Buxton, Berrios really fit into the 'bounce back' category.  They are all young guys adjusting to the league.  They'll be fine.  I think guys like Gibson, Hughes, Perkins etc are more the bounce back types we need to do well.  I'm not sure what to expect from them but I do think the young guys on the team will be better because 1) they are very talented and 2) players get better with experience.  

 

[Halsey Hall]

Plouffe won't be bouncing back around here.  He's gotta go.

 

Hopefully Hughes will bounce back, as we need starting pitching to even think of nearing the .500 mark.  Gibson needs to bounce forward also. 

[DocBauer]

I echo Hughes and Park as good bounceback candidates. So is Plouffe, but for another team LIMO.

 

I also can't call for a "bounce back" for Rosario, Sanyo or Berries. Not in the classic sense. These guys are so young and still developing that I have a hard time classifying them as bounce back. Rosario and Sano still have less than 800ML AB. Rosario was much better after his recall from Rochester and Sano was still one if the team's top sluggers. I put these guys in a "step forward" colum.

[Shaitan]

If Rosario can't learn to take a walk it's hard to see him improving. He doesn't have to be a "patient" hitter, but his walk rate would be comical if he wasn't on my team.

 

[nicksaviking]

 

I wonder what his hard hit ball rate is right now......I'd bet that's the issue.

 

You talking about Mauer?

 

Or Gibson? Or Berrios?

 

Edit: Interestingly, both Mauer and Gibson had a hard hit % of 31% last year. Mauer was trending up, Gibson regressed. A lot.

[Mike Sixel]

 

You talking about Mauer?

 

Or Gibson? Or Berrios?

 

Edit: Interestingly, both Mauer and Gibson had a hard hit % of 31% last year. Mauer was trending up, Gibson regressed. A lot.

 

Mauer....and his babip went down while his hard hit went up? Huh....but then, maybe those aren't as correlated as I think they are.

[KirbyDome89]

I agree that Plouffe should be bouncing back somewhere else next season. Its likely that Berrios and Sano have better seasons in 2017 so expecting more from them makes sense. Unless Rosario has an epiphany and realizes that strike zone control and going into ABs with a plan are important I can't see him being anything other than the guy he was last year. Its disappointing, if he could find a way to reach base more often and his slugging percentage did creep back up near .460 the Twins would have an incredible outfield moving forward. As it stands now he is a solid 4th outfielder/not bad starting LF for a rebuilding team.

 

I'm not sold on Gibson at all. I think at this point we know what he is; an inconsistent 4-5th starter. 2015 was a good year for him, but it was sandwiched between two uninspiring years. Looking at his 2015 season as the true Gibson and hoping he hits that again is like banking on Hughes repeating his 2014 season. He very well could have runs of success next season but they are almost certain to be followed by equally terrible starts. Seriously, the guy is actually Jekyll and Hyde.   

[Taildragger8791]

I don't know if Park qualifies as a "bounce back" candidate since he hasn't really set a baseline to bounce back to yet. He hit some long homeruns and had a couple short stretches that looked competent, but otherwise flailed a lot and was demoted as a result. I'd put him in the same category as the young guys that are still developing and establishing who they're going to be (Sano, Kepler, Vargas, Buxton, Rosario, Berrios, Duffey). Most of them will be ok and find a role on the team, a couple will fizzle out. That's just the nature of the game.

 

When it comes to guys I think of as actual bounce back candidates (Hughes, Gibson, Perkins, Plouffe, Mauer), I don't have faith that any of them will get back to even their median performance levels. Plouffe likely needs to be moved to clear roster space and save Molitor from himself. The rest of them will get their opportunities but I certainly don't want to depend on them. There needs to be a Plan A that doesn't require gambling on these guys to be key contributors. That kind of "planning" is how we ended up with a persistent tire fire on the pitching mound all year instead of actual big league pitchers.

[nicksaviking]

 

Mauer....and his babip went down while his hard hit went up? Huh....but then, maybe those aren't as correlated as I think they are.

 

I could see that happening for aging hitters who end up "cheating" on pitches. Seemed to me that kind of thing happened to Craig Biggio, Dave Winfield and Eddie Murray. Those guys were probably older than Mauer is now though when they gave up on being great all-around hitters and started going with the old "grip-it-and-rip-it" approach.

 

Though typically those types of hitters acknowledge that their contact skills are diminishing due to age and slower reaction time so instead take advantage of the fact that power/strength doesn't typically deteriorate at the same degree and actually quite often increases in healthy males (i.e. not me).

[ScrapTheNickname]

 

I wonder what his hard hit ball rate is right now......I'd bet that's the issue.

I don't think his BABIP will go up in the future because defenses know almost exactly where he is going to hit the ball, and they've known it for a long time. Further decline in my crystal ball.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

This is more of a mini-bounce but Mauer's BABIP from 2004 to 2014 was .348. In 2015 it was .309 and in 2016 it was .301. This hasn't been accompanied by a spike in GB rate and he actually had a career-best LD rate last year so he doesn’t seem to be hitting balls that are more easily turned into outs. He just seems to have been a bit unlucky over the past two years (of course along with an erosion of his hitting tool).

There are some reasons this might drop (I can think of The Shift – though he’s faced that for more than the last two years so there isn't an easy causal relationship) but he's never been a guy who depended on his speed for infield hits so age shouldn’t erode his BABIP. If Mauer gets a bit more luck with the BABIP and returns to closer to normal (say .345) or even has a bit of extra luck (say .370), he could have a nice bounce-back season at age 34 (an .800 OPS?).

 

Mauer has been a bounce back candidate for 3 seasons now... I think it's fair to say that what you saw this years is probably what you're going to get. I hope I'm wrong here, but I'm not holding out much hope. He was pretty decent this season, but not worth anything close to the contract, nor an extension 2 years from now if the 1B/DH glut continues.

[Thrylos]

I hope that Plouffe bounces back with another team. 

 

Rosario did not drop.  That's what he is, so not much bounce there.

 

My number one bounce back candidate is Hughes.  Second, Park.

[mdonaghue]

Um, shouldn't the whole team be the bounce back candidate?

[EddieMatthews]

My pick for Twins top five bounce back seasons are Plouffe, Arcia, Nolasco, Suzuki, and Jepsen.  If you can pick players (Plouffe) who will not be on the 2017 roster, so can I.  

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

My bounce back players for the TWINS are:

Buxton – we need his bat;

Sano – We need him at 3B, and at the plate;

Park, to reach his potential;

Gibson, and Hughes for their starting pitching.

We need Berrios, Rosario, and others to improve. 

[Darius]

You could probably make the case to include anyone on the 53-man, with the exception of a handful of guys (Dozier, Santans, Kintzler, Polanco).

[Darius]

I think Park gets healthy and looks a lot better. I could see him hitting a lot of home runs for this team from the 6-7 hole.

 

Escobar is another guy that I would expect to be better. But, not sure if he'll play.

 

Tyler Duffey is another I haven't seen mentioned a while lot, but I would bet on him being better.

[ThejacKmp]

Mauer has been a bounce back candidate for 3 seasons now... I think it's fair to say that what you saw this years is probably what you're going to get. I hope I'm wrong here, but I'm not holding out much hope. He was pretty decent this season, but not worth anything close to the contract, nor an extension 2 years from now if the 1B/DH glut continues.

I'm not taking the savings to Vegas on this one, just saying that there's a statistical basis for hoping that Mauer might trend up in 2017. The offseason is a time for optimism!

[Thrylos]

 

You could probably make the case to include anyone on the 53-man, 

 

I'd take the whole practice squad

[Dantes929]

Gibson, Duffey, May, Berrios, Sano.     Notice 4 of them are pitchers.   Sano just having better at bats in key situations would be a plus.