Article: Tom's Offseason Blueprint: Holding Pattern Until July

[Tom Froemming]

The offseason is officially underway and it's time to play everybody's favorite game: November Fantasy Front Office Madness! Er, I guess everybody else is calling this their offseason blueprint.

 

If you'd like to play along at home, the Twins Daily Offseason Handbook came out earlier this month, and along with an offseason blueprint from the Twins Daily regulars it includes everything you need to lay out your own future for the team. Several others have already joined in on the blueprint building, including Cody Christie and Cold Omaha's Brandon Warne, This is a lot of fun to do, if you don't like the blueprints I've laid below, head over to the forum (where there are already a few examples) or post a blog with your own plan, I love reading these things.

 

All right, lets get down to it. First things first, you have to know what you're working with. After the worst season in franchise history, I'd expect the Pohlads would want to cut some payroll. Attendance dropped about 11.5%, so I'll build a similar reduction into my budget, aiming for around $93 million.Now before I get into the moves, let's figure out what the goal should be. Even with the budget dropping, I'd still want to present a team that could have a conceivable chance at contending, at least if everything went right. The new front office is going to create some positive buzz, and you wouldn't want to lose that by staging a massive fire sale.

 

There's also the issue of building up the organization. Everything's about to change, and I'd prefer Derek Falvey and Thad Levine be able to devote as much time as needed getting the details right on how the org is structured and who else is hired even more so than building up the 2017 roster. I'd be fine with a quiet offseason if it meant amazing people were being hired into the front office, scouting department, etc.

 

Okay, on to arbitration. These would be mainly budget cuts, but I would non-tender Trevor Plouffe and Brandon Kintzler. Both players could provide value to this year's team, but I'm not sure if either could surpass even their projected arbitration salaries on the open market. After watching his career for so long, it will be tough to watch Plouffe go, but it's time. I like Kintzler, but it's easy to find scrap heap relievers willing to sign minor league deals.

 

I was tempted to let Hector Santiago go to open up some payroll, but with starting pitching being the team's biggest need I wouldn't want to downgrade the rotation any more than it already is. On top of that, I still think Santiago is a respectable pitcher. Yes, he'll walk his fare share of guys and give up homers, but he has a 103 ERA+ over six years. I think Santiago was tinkering with things when he first came to Minnesota (8.17 ERA in Aug.), but then went back to his usual formula at the end of the year (3.75 ERA in Sept./Oct.).

 

Even with non-tendering Plouffe and Kintzler there's not a lot of room left in the budget for free agents. I'd like to leave the door open for John Ryan Murphy, Mitch Garver or Stuart Turner to establish themselves but it's obvious the Twins need a major league catcher.

 

I think Geovany Soto represents the best buying opportunity in terms of bargain basement backstops in this year's free agent class. Soto, who turns 34 in January, signed a one-year, $2.8 million deal with the Angels last offseason and only played 28 games. Let's say we sign him for one-year, $2.25 million.

 

Staying on the field has been a huge issue for Soto the last four seasons, but when healthy he's played well. Over those last four years, Soto has only 567 plate appearances, but his .431 slugging percentage is actually ahead of top free agent catchers Wilson Ramos (.429) and Matt Wieters (.422) over that same span. His defense is probably average at best, but that would still be an upgrade over Kurt Suzuki.

 

An added bonus is Soto is Puerto Rican. To me, probably the most important thing of 2017 is the development of Jose Berrios. I think it could be extremely helpful to find a veteran to guide him as a player. It would be even better if that person could also relate to him personally and help him blossom into the beast we all believe he can become.

 

I'd also like to see a legit major league shortstop added, but the market is extremely thin. Ruben Tejada signed a one-year, $1.5 million deal last offseason, and while he barely played it wouldn't surprise me that due to the thin market and his age (he's only 27) he gets a decent raise. We'll also put him down for one-year, $2.25 million. You don't get much from the bat, but he's been productive against lefties (.362 career OBP), is a decent defender at shortstop and can play second and third as well.

 

And that's it. Those are the only major league contracts, at least. I'd bring in a few guys, particularly pitchers, on minor league deals and see what happens in spring training. I'd be particularly interested in a reunion with veteran Sean Burnett, who spent the bulk of last year pitching to a 2.15 ERA with Rochester.

 

So there's gotta be a big trade, right? Nope, sorry. Not right away at least. If I'm trading away Brian Dozier or Ervin Santana I'm assuming the team has no shot at competing in 2017 or '18. I'm not ready to do that out of the gate.

 

Pretty boring, I know. While there wouldn't be any ground breaking moves, it's the way the roster gets filled out where things get interesting.

 

Starting Lineup

C-Geovany Soto $2.25M

1B-Joe Mauer (vs. RHP) $23M

2B-Brian Dozier $6M

3B-Jorge Polanco $0.5M

SS-Eduardo Escobar $2.9M

LF-Eddie Rosario $0.5M

CF-Byron Buxton $0.5M

RF-Max Kepler $0.5M

DH-Miguel Sano $0.5M

 

Bench

Kennys Vargas (starting 1B vs. LHP) $0.5M

John Ryan Murphy $0.5M

Robbie Grossman $0.5M

Ruben Tejada $2.25M

 

Rotation

Ervin Santana $13.5M

Hector Santiago $8.6M

Kyle Gibson $3.5M

Jose Berrios $0.5M

Phil Hughes $13.2M

 

Bullpen

Tyler Duffey $0.5M

Trevor May $0.5M

J.T. Chargios $0.5M

Taylor Rogers $0.5M

Ryan Pressly $1.1M

Glen Perkins $6.5M

Michael Tonkin $0.5M

 

Adding in the $2.75M owed to Byungho Park, that's an Opening Day payroll of $92.55 million. Missing from this team is Danny Santana, who at this point I'd expect to clear waivers.

 

There are a lot of familiar faces in this bunch, but in slightly different places. Though I've committed positions to each guy in the starting lineup, it's open for a lot of flexibility.

 

What the signing of Tejada does is provide enough infield depth so you don't have to play Polanco at short or Sano at third. In the big picture, I could see Engelb Vielma being ready to be a glove-first MLB shortstop by midseason 2017 with Nick Gordon probably around a year behind him. So I'm not interested in trying to make Polanco stick at shortstop.

 

Putting Polanco at third may seem odd, but that is a weak position in the minors for the Twins. Unlike shortstop, it's difficult to look at the current crop of talent and see multiple options coming up the pipeline any time within the next year or two.

 

No, Polanco did not look good at third base in a short sample last season, but I think his skills translate better there than shortstop and with a spring training learning the position maybe we see better results. If he sticks, you have a legit long-term solution at third, so no need to try to make Sano work there. Just let him mash at DH.

 

Out in the bullpen, I'd combat any disappointment Duffey or May would have about not cracking the rotation by letting them duke it out for the closer role in spring training. If it were totally up to me, I'd probably have May in the rotation and instead give Hughes the opportunity to pitch at the back end of the bullpen. He's done it before. But with his contract, I doubt that if he's healthy he'll be doing anything but starting. We'll say that's an ownership decision, out of my hands.

Speaking of health, there are always extra days off in April, so even if Hughes and/or Perkins aren't back to 100 percent, you wouldn't have to lean on either of them early on. If you didn't feel confident even easing them in and they start the year on the DL, Adalberto Mejia becomes the fifth starter and either Ryan O'Rourke or Buddy Boshers joins the pen.

 

If we get to July and somehow this team is over .500, I'd aim to make major improvements to the bullpen and try to add another starting pitcher. You wouldn't want to sell off the farm, but operating under $100 million with a cost controlled core, this team would be well placed to take on salary. Sometimes that means you don't need to give up your top prospects.

 

If we get to July and this team is below .500, we're open for business. Dozier and Santana are traded for sure, along with any other vets with trade value. You maybe even listen on a young guy or two. And the returns I'd seek wouldn't be guys on the cusp of the major leagues, I'd aim for lower-level prospects who would be more likely to make an impact in 2018 or 2019.

 

What do you think? Should I tweet this out to Thad Levine?

 

Click here to view the article

[T_J]

This, to me, would be an excellent "blueprint" to get back to back number one picks.

[Tom Froemming]

 

This, to me, would be an excellent "blueprint" to get back to back number one picks.

I know this looks a lot like the team that lost 103 games, but it also looks pretty similar to the 2015 team that was in the playoff hunt all the way up to the last weekend of the season. My glass is half full right now, but I think it's realistic to expect the majority of the guys on that 25-man roster to perform better than they did last season.

 

But if that doesn't happen, heck yeah, hold a fire sale and basically make it the goal to land the number one pick. I'd give these guys one more shot, then do an Astros-style bottoming out.

[Cory Engelhardt]

I don't see what Geovany Soto adds to this team, other than he was born near the same place in the world that Berrios was. I would be disappointed if this were the twins offseason

[Cory Engelhardt]

Unless you want to get Soto and pair him with Castro? Soto does hit lefties really well for his career, something Castro does not. Then the twins could give more time to Murphy and Garver in aaa.

[DocBauer]

Well thought out and very logical. I will not argue the logic of your plan, or the fact that big FA moves are not what this team really wants or needs right now, not that there are a ton of difference makers out there, particularly rotation wise. I also agree that this team should be better than last season, just because a lot of bad things happened last season, and they'd almost have to be better than last year "just because". And with the new FO taking time to implement their new organizational direction, and needing time to really get to know what they have in the system player wise, I could see this scenario play out.

 

But I do have a few issues and comments:

 

* Tejada is a guy I considered when I listed my framework, and almost went with him over Drew. Not a bad choice at all.

 

* I also considered Soto as my veteran, short term catcher. And he could be an interesting bounce back candidate. He's just been so hurt and hardly played the last couple of years that I just wasn't sure there would be a point to signing him.

 

* It would be a huge boost to this team of Hughes could make it back, especially all the way back, but I just can't bank on it, especially to start the season, so I put May back in the rotation. I don't get the Mejia idea at this time. Not dismissing him as a prospect and eventual rotation member, but again, why not May when Mejia probably needs more time at AAA?

 

* I still absolutely don't like Sano at DH. Maybe he ends up there one day. Maybe he becomes the full time 1B in another year or so. But I still don't give up on him at 3B yet. Could better conditioning and a little harder work be necessary for him at 3B? But he also needs time and opportunity to play there, especially being able to concentrate on the position. I've watched guys like Gaetti and Koskie with the Twins have to develop at the position, Plouffe more recently. I watched future HOF Boggs struggle with Boston, and others similarly. Cabrera with the Tigers has never been accused of being a strong defender, but he's adequate with his big bat. I still don't move Sano off 3B yet.

[jimmer]

 

I know this looks a lot like the team that lost 103 games, but it also looks pretty similar to the 2015 team that was in the playoff hunt all the way up to the last weekend of the season. My glass is half full right now, but I think it's realistic to expect the majority of the guys on that 25-man roster to perform better than they did last season.

 

But if that doesn't happen, heck yeah, hold a fire sale and basically make it the goal to land the number one pick. I'd give these guys one more shot, then do an Astros-style bottoming out.

That 2015 team was incredibly lucky in sequencing.  

Edited November 11, 2016 by jimmer

[Doomtints]

Moves on the margins are fine for a team that is performing at the mean or better.  Using this approach when the team is at the bottom is what got Ryan fired.  

 

I disagree with the small moves for positional players, but I can respect being cautious as some of them have potential.  The pitching needs to be blown up, however.  Half goes now, the other half gets a year to prove themselves.  Harsh but it needs to be done.  The Twins have a lot of work to do.

 

Kudos for putting Sano at DH, though.  The Twins will look very smart if they sew up DH for the next decade.  They'll look incredibly dumb if the derail his career by forcing him to play the field and dealing with fluke injuries and carnival defense.  

Edited November 11, 2016 by Doomtints

[Tom Froemming]

 

I don't see what Geovany Soto adds to this team, other than he was born near the same place in the world that Berrios was. I would be disappointed if this were the twins offseason

Soto would be more of a stop gap, and while he's not anyone to grab headlines, he would represent an upgrade over Suzuki (not saying much I know). The ideal situation is he would be in a 60/40 split with one of the "younger" guys to open the year before rolling back into more of a bench role.

 

I put younger in quotes because Murphy, Garver and Turner will all be either 25 or 26 this season. It's time to give them an opportunity, they shouldn't need anymore time in the minors. Garver's great season has carried over into the AFL and both Murphy and Turner had encouraging finishes to the MiLB season.

[mazeville]

I don't mind holding off on many major moves until the trade deadline. That is particularly true with someone like Ervin Santana who would likely fetch a better return at the time. And you're right: It'd be better to build the team's front office at this point.

 

But the Twins have to look at trading Dozier in the offseason because there will be many more potential suitors now than there would be at the trade deadline. It is what it is. 

[HitInAPinch]

Tom:  Your blueprint probably crossed the posting of this article from the StarTribune:

http://www.startribune.com/arizona-trip-for-gm-meetings-was-a-twins-baptism-for-new-bosses/400778211/

 

You're right on the 'things probably won't change much' front.

 

They have done their thing in AZ between spa visits.  Sounds to me like the strategy is much like yours:  Stand pat while we figure things out.  From the article:

 

"their next objective once they return to Target Field won't be strengthening the Twins' 40-man roster but the organizational chart. Falvey and Levine have been given the go-ahead by owner Jim Pohlad to greatly expand the team's management, adding expertise in a number of areas it has lacked."

 

"We're going to be active on the major league front. We have a good grasp on some possibilities for us to explore," Levine said. "But there is no mandate that we do anything dramatic right away."

 

I'm still hoping for some trade movement....

 

Edited November 11, 2016 by HitInAPinch

[Vanimal46]

Even though the Twins are standing pat here, this feels like a very risky proposition.

 

We're assuming here that Ervin stays hot and keeps his value high until July... It could happen! Or he could have a clunker year too and lose that momentum we have right now.

 

Same thing with Dozier, though I don't believe he's as risky as Santana to keep. Don't think there's a right or wrong answer, it just feels like we're taking on more risk doubling down on another very good season from Ervin and Dozier.

[Tom Froemming]

One last thing regarding Soto, here's an overview of him vs. the top free agent guys:

 

OPS 2013-2016

Soto .744

Ramos .734

Wieters .724

Castro .709

 

Framing 2013-2016

Castro 30.8

Soto 1.2

Ramos -2.8

Wieters -28.1

 

Career CS%

Ramos 34%

Wieters 33%

Soto 27%

Castro 26%

[Mike Sixel]

I really can't endorse a plan that assumes they compete next year.

[Vanimal46]

 

Tom:  Your blueprint probably crossed the posting of this article from the StarTribune:

http://www.startribune.com/arizona-trip-for-gm-meetings-was-a-twins-baptism-for-new-bosses/400778211/

 

You're right on the 'things probably won't change much' front.

 

They have done their thing in AZ between spa visits.  Sounds to me like the strategy is much like yours:  Stand pat while we figure things out.  From the article:

 

"their next objective once they return to Target Field won't be strengthening the Twins' 40-man roster but the organizational chart. Falvey and Levine have been given the go-ahead by owner Jim Pohlad to greatly expand the team's management, adding expertise in a number of areas it has lacked."

 

"We're going to be active on the major league front. We have a good grasp on some possibilities for us to explore," Levine said. "But there is no mandate that we do anything dramatic right away."

 

I'm still hoping for some trade movement....

I understand that's what Falvey's focus is on, the long-term outlook of the organization and building the organizational departments. Isn't Levine supposed to be the one focused on the roster along with wheeling and dealing? 

Edited November 11, 2016 by Vanimal46

[awinter]

I'm with Tom.

 

The Twins were awful last year because their pitching was staff was last in ERA in the AL... by more than half a run. I don't think it's because their pitchers are that much less talented than the rest of the league. I think it has more to do with coaching & organizational philosophy. Let's all hope that with Falvey and Levine now in charge, we start to see a shift in both coaching & philosophy.

 

If the Twins can 1) get their team ERA AL ranking up to 13 or 14, 2) have their young core of position players take the next step (I'm looking at you- Buxton, Sano, Kepler, and even Polanco) and 3) gain some consistency out of their everyday players, then I think they have a chance of winning 80+ games.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'm with Tom.

 

The Twins were awful last year because their pitching was staff was last in ERA in the AL... by more than half a run. I don't think it's because their pitchers are that much less talented than the rest of the league. I think it has more to do with coaching & organizational philosophy. Let's all hope that with Falvey and Levine now in charge, we start to see a shift in both coaching & philosophy.

 

If the Twins can 1) get their team ERA AL ranking up to 13 or 14, 2) have their young core of position players take the next step (I'm looking at you- Buxton, Sano, Kepler, and even Polanco) and 3) gain some consistency out of their everyday players, then I think they have a chance of winning 80+ games.

 

So, the plan is everything works our perfectly, and they go from 30th to above average in runs allowed? That seems like a plan not too likely to work out....

 

where does Polanco play, if you keep Dozier?

[Lonestar]

I disagree with the assumption that the Twins should lower payroll from $102M to $96M. The MLB median is more like their 2011 payroll ($113M). There is room to do sign some free agents that cost nothing but Pohlad's money. Those free agents could improve the on-field product, help the development of youngsters, and possibly be flipped for more talent.

[nicksaviking]

I'm OK with the Soto signing as well and it sounds pretty plausible. Lavine traded for Soto once back in 2012 and a familiar reliable defensive backstop seems like something a new GM would target.

 

It was also the Rangers who made him a platoon catcher so I'd guess Lavine wouldn't go back on that.

[KirbyDome89]

Molitor loses his favorite player Dantana?!!? Nooooooo......

 

On a serious note though, I'm ok with a majority of the plan. The largest disagreement I have is whether the team will be competitive. I think its a pipe dream at best to hope this team is anything close to resembling competitive. I would rather all FA decisions be made with the idea that in 2-3 years they could theoretically challenge for a playoff spot. Soto might be a stopgap, but for what exactly? The Twins don't have any stud prospects coming up at the position. If you sign Soto this year, you're in the same position next year; looking for catching help. If they can get a deal done with Castro or Wieters and lock up an important position for the next 3-4 they should do it. 

 

I would rather see Sano get another shot at 3B but if he can't, I've advocated for Polanco to see time at 3B. I like that you had a backup plan early in the season for Hughes and Perkins. Hughes is a massive question mark and Perkins hasn't been able to stay healthy the last few years so theres a good chance the Twins get nothing out of both of them. Mejia as the 5th starter is meh, I would rather see May. They can hopefully do better than putting Boshers back in the bullpen if that scenario plays out. I would much rather seem them sign a low risk high reward reliever and have the chance to flip that person at the deadline when the Twins are out of contention. 

 

I'm not a big Santiago fan but I understand why people would want him back. I've said it before, but tendering him a contract makes that Nolasco trade even more confusing. You trade a bad pitcher who is "expensive," and a top prospect you've failed to develop, for a starter who is slightly less awful but just as "expensive." The fact they could non tender Santiago and save money along with moving Nolasco was supposed to be enough to make the deal palatable. Instead, it looks like they'll tender Santiago that contract so they save no money, they have a pitcher who is marginally better and a team that looks like it could lose 100 games again. Oh, and they gave up a player who was once one of their top prospects to do so. That makes zero sense to me.   

[Brandon]

I think the Team with sign a reliever to a major league contract and sign some depth and get a catcher hopefully castro.  I actually hope we keep  Plouffe if he can build value he could get us something at next years trade deadline if there are injuries to contenders.  I also think he is a better defender than Sano who needs to move to 1b to not be a DH at this point.  He and Mauer can switch out at 1b  and DH. 

[Jordan1212]

I don't want Soto are you kidding me! You really want the games to be like that 1 at target field where there were 8 people in the stands all year long come on man

[operation mindcrime]

This, to me, would be an excellent "blueprint" to get back to back number one picks.

Then we can add Seth Beer to the team!!! \m/

[HitInAPinch]

 

I understand that's what Falvey's focus is on, the long-term outlook of the organization and building the organizational departments. Isn't Levine supposed to be the one focused on the roster along with wheeling and dealing? 

 

I believe both will be focused on roster changes right now.  And I expect those changes will be minimal until Falvey get's this part of the organization organized.  Falvey has already stated that there will be expanding the scouting, metrics and other parts of the organization, along with changes on how things are taught in the MiLB.  The easy translation of that is:

 

"We need time to catch up with the rest of the league in those departments."

 

From that same article, they are asking around the league what other's think of Twins players.  Throw in their own 'outsider' evals from their Cleveland and Texas days, that's a pretty great start.

 

I also think that with the influx over the past 2 years of a not so insignificant number of MiLB'ers is a reason to pause before jumping into anything resembling a full rebuild. 

 

 

[mdonaghue]

I wonder how much better Sano would be at third with better scouting and a good bench coach doing the positioning.

[Mr. Brooks]

Firing Terry Ryan seems like a huge waste of time if this is the plan.

 

I don't see how anyone can think this team is Soto and Tejada away from a World Series run.

[jimmer]

 

I wonder how much better Sano would be at third with better scouting and a good bench coach doing the positioning.

He'd still drop easy infield fly balls and have range 2-3 steps to the left or right :-)

[awinter]

 

So, the plan is everything works our perfectly, and they go from 30th to above average in runs allowed? That seems like a plan not too likely to work out....

 

where does Polanco play, if you keep Dozier?

Didn't say above average- 13th or 14th in the AL. My point is that I think pitching can improve with a change in organizational philosophy. When the pitching has been this bad for so long, I don't think it's a stretch to think something is wrong with the coaching/training/philosophy. And I'm not asking for much- they just need to be NOT dead last in the AL (had they accomplished that last year, team ERA would have been 0.50 better). This roster won't win because of the starting pitching. If their young core of hitters can improve, that will be what wins them games.

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Didn't say above average- 13th or 14th in the AL. My point is that I think pitching can improve with a change in organizational philosophy. When the pitching has been this bad for so long, I don't think it's a stretch to think something is wrong with the coaching/training/philosophy. And I'm not asking for much- they just need to be NOT dead last in the AL (had they accomplished that last year, team ERA would have been 0.50 better). This roster won't win because of the starting pitching. If their young core of hitters can improve, that will be what wins them games.

 

ah, I read 13/14 in MLB! apologies.