Article: Twins Have Unmatched Run Of Instability At DH

[Seth Stohs]

Much has been made about the Twins' aversion to making young slugger Miguel Sano an everyday designated hitter. But it hasn't been just Sano, The club has avoided committing regular DH at-bats to any single player for several years now.

 

There were five teams that had a player DH at least 100 games in 2016: the Red Sox (David Ortiz, 140), Tigers (Victor Martinez, 138), Royals (Kendrys Morales, 138), Angels (Albert Pujols, 123) and Mariners (Nelson Cruz, 107). Four more teams had a DH meet that mark in 2015: the Yankees (Alex Rodriguez), Rangers (Prince Fielder), Astros (Evan Gattis) and A's (Billy Butler).

 

That's nine of the 15 AL teams who've had a player meet the century mark in games at DH the last two seasons. How about the rest of the league?You have to go back to 2011 to the last time the Orioles (Vlad Guerrero) and Rays (Johnny Damon) had a 100-game DH, and 2010 for the Blue Jays (Adam Lind) and Indians (Travis Hafner). The White Sox have had their share of veteran sluggers, but the last time they had a player DH in 100 games was 2008 (Jim Thome, who also reached 99 games at DH in '09).

 

That would be the longest drought without an "everyday" DH, except for the fact the Twins have them beat ... by a decade. The last Twins player to DH 100 games? Paul Molitor in 1998 (he also accomplished the feat in '97 & '96). The last time the Twins even had a guy DH in half their games was in 2009 (Jason Kubel, 82).

 

Things were especially unstable at DH last season. Miguel Sano and Byungho Park shared the team lead in appearances at DH with just 36. Joe Mauer (34), Robbie Grossman (19) and Kennys Vargas (13) also had at least 10 games at DH. The only other teams to fail to have a player reach even 60 games at DH were the Yankees (led by A-Rod's 57 games) and A's (led by 53 games at DH for Khris Davis).

 

But it's not like that was all by design. Of course, if Park continued his hot start Paul Molitor would have gladly penciled him in at DH 100-plus times last season. Park had a .900 OPS through his first month and a half in the big leagues before falling apart.

 

And maybe Terry Ryan would never have brought in Park if the team didn't feel it was too early to make 23-year-old Sano an everyday DH. To be fair, that was an entirely sensible approach to take (deciding to put him in right field is another discussion). Even the greatest designated hitters of all-time spent many of their younger years in the field.

 

Any discussion about great designated hitters has to start with David Ortiz, right? Despite being in his mid-20s, the Twins were primarily DHing Ortiz in his last three years in Minnesota, but he played first base in 79 games over his first two seasons in Boston. Once he turned 29, Ortiz never played in more than 10 games in the field in a season.

 

Chili Davis mostly played outfield prior to coming to Minnesota in 1991 and switching to DH as a 31-year-old. Jim Thome was a third baseman through age 25 and didn't switch to DH until joining the White Sox at age 35. Paul Molitor played all over the diamond before becoming a primary DH at age 35.

 

Edgar Martinez primarily played third base until he was 32. Harold Baines was an outfielder before he switched to DH in his age 28 season. Frank Thomas was one of the biggest dudes to play the game, but even he played more first base until he was 30.

 

One last bit of DH info fun, since the DH was instituted in 1973 the Twins have had a 100-game DH 12 times. That's the exact number of seasons David Ortiz played at least 100 games as a DH.

 

Here is the list of Twins' leader in DH games for each season (over 100 games in bold):

 

16: Miguel Sano/Byungho Park 36

15: Miguel Sano 69

14: Kennys Vargas 40

13: Ryan Doumit 49

12: Ryan Doumit 48

11: Jim Thome 59

10: Jim Thome 79

09: Jason Kubel 82

08: Jason Kubel 85

07: Jason Kubel 36

06: Rondell White 54

05: Matt LeCroy 63

04: Jose Offerman 39

03: Matt LeCroy 63

02: David Ortiz 95

01: David Ortiz 80

00: David Ortiz 88

99: Marty Cordova 85

98: Paul Molitor 115

97: Paul Molitor 122

96: Paul Molitor 143

95: Pedro Munoz 77

94: Dave Winfield 76

93: Dave Winfield 105

92: Chili Davis 125

91: Chili Davis 150

90: Gene Larkin 43

89: Jim Dwyer 73

88: Gene Larkin 86

87: Roy Smalley 73

86: Roy Smalley 114

85: Roy Smalley 56

84: Randy Bush 88

83: Randy Bush 104

82: Randy Johnson 66

81: Glenn Adams 62

80: Jose Morales 85

79: Jose Morales 77

78: Glenn Adams 100

77: Craig Kusick 85

76: Craig Kusick 79

75: Tony Oliva 120

74: Tony Oliva 112

73: Tony Oliva 142

 

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[Rosterman]

There is nothing wrong with having a professional designated hitter on a team. Just think, the Twins could've kept Ortiz and paid him less than they are paying, say, Joe Mauer. In the end, imagine what that would've given THIS team. H

 

appily keeping Matt LeCroy as the main DH in two of the three years since Ortiz worked, because LeCroy could also catch.

 

Would it be bad to have Sano DH for 15 years? (Or even, Arcia, at one point).

[Tom Froemming]

 

There is nothing wrong with having a professional designated hitter on a team. Just think, the Twins could've kept Ortiz and paid him less than they are paying, say, Joe Mauer. In the end, imagine what that would've given THIS team. H

 

appily keeping Matt LeCroy as the main DH in two of the three years since Ortiz worked, because LeCroy could also catch.

 

Would it be bad to have Sano DH for 15 years? (Or even, Arcia, at one point).

Big Papi made plenty of money in his career, but I was pretty surprised to look back as see the biggest financial commitment the Red Sox ever had to make him was a 4-year, $52 million extension that had another club option year.

[DocBauer]

I have never felt a team HAD to have a full time DH to use the spot successfully. Not saying you can't plug a tremendous hitter in that spot, especially an older player who's bat is strong but who's defense has begun to wane, I've just never held the belief it was necessary if you have a talented and we'll balanced ballclub.

 

Tom Kelly used his lineup very well, back in the day, IMO, and the chart above would seem to suggest I am right. Randy Bush, for example, was very often the Twins DH for a few years, but also played 1B and OF, but there were other quality players there that were primary starters, so it was a way to get his LH bat in the lineup and get other guys a half day of rest. This also applies somewhat to Larkin and Smaller.

 

With the potential of the Twins current OF, I could easily see someone like Palka, in the near future, being able to play 1B and both corner OF spots but being the regular DH. Bit of a hornets nest here, but if Mauer were to retire or be injured again, a healthy Park and Vargas could potentially share 1B/DH duties daily with Sano filling in once in a while and Escobar playing 3B possibly.

 

I think the "regular DH" discrepancy the Twins have had the past several years is more due to overall lack of talent than having that ONE GUY for the job. Willingham, for instance, could have perfect for the spot with an occassional start in the OF. But they didn't have anyone else as good or better to start in the OF at the time.

 

I have no problem with a Thome, Winfield, Davis or Molitor slated in to the DH spot daily. But personally, I'd like to have a nice, complete and talented roster where we have an OF or 1B with a good bat who deserves to be in the lineup daily and we use him there while rolling him in to the field as well.

[TheLeviathan]

There is a serious lack of Jason Tyner references in this.....

[DocBauer]

There is a serious lack of Jason Tyner references in this.....

Oh, he crossed my mind to be sure! Wasn't sure he should be the player version of Brian Duensing. Lol

[old nurse]

Unscientifically, because I am not trusting their filter, fangraphs leader board by team has the Twins with  117+ wrc for DH from 2011-2016. Good for 6th place in the AL.  They would then have as a team WRC batting of 92. How they have used the DH would be, if those numbers are accurate,  decent enough. Better if they had kept Ortiz, but there is no saying that Ortiz would have had the same last 7 years either.

[diehardtwinsfan]

yeah, I'm not seeing the big deal here.  I don't think it's unreasonable to expect a ball player to have a position. That gives the manager some flexibility.  That and I heard a rumor that Ortiz might qualify for that whole Hall of Fame thing.  Not saying that Sano cannot be that type of hitter (though the expectations are certainly unreasonable at this point), but expecting a twenty some year old kid to play defense in his 20s isn't unreasonable.

[mdonaghue]

I realized hinsight is 20/20, but...

 

Mauer's contract has created a mess for this team.  If he was out of the picture, they could have done the following in 2015:

 

1.  Plouffe starts at 1B

2.  Sano starts at 3B

3.  Vargas makes the team as a backup 1B/DH

4.  Arcia as RF/DH

4.  Park starts the year in AAA to get used to the American game.

 

As it played out, Vargas would have started at 1B due to Plouffe's injury.  Arcia was released and replaced by Kepler.  Park got hurt.  

 

Sano would probably have had a MUCH better year because he would have played 3B/DH.  We would have had a full season sample size on Vargas - so the team knows what to do with him.  Kepler is now entrenched in RF (at least for 17).  The team would at least know what is going on with three key positions.

 

The key is they have to move Mauer.

[jimmer]

Unscientifically, because I am not trusting their filter, fangraphs leader board by team has the Twins with 117+ wrc for DH from 2011-2016. Good for 6th place in the AL. They would then have as a team WRC batting of 92. How they have used the DH would be, if those numbers are accurate, decent enough. Better if they had kept Ortiz, but there is no saying that Ortiz would have had the same last 7 years either.

if you dont trust their filters, why use them to try and make a point? Makes no sense. Like saying, I have an opinion about something, and I'd like to prove it to you by using data I have zero faith in.

 

P.S., I have no idea why you wouldn't trust Fangraphs' filter other than just not trusting info from Fangraphs in general.

Edited November 4, 2016 by jimmer

[Shaitan]

I feel like more of the AL is moving in the Twins direction here, using DH as a "half day off" for regulars instead of carrying a mediocre bat. Of course an Ortiz is nice, but the majority of DHs are not that level.

 

I see no issue with a player taking 80-120 games while rotating through everyone else.

[jimmer]

I feel like more of the AL is moving in the Twins direction here, using DH as a "half day off" for regulars instead of carrying a mediocre bat. Of course an Ortiz is nice, but the majority of DHs are not that level.

 

I see no issue with a player taking 80-120 games while rotating through everyone else.

it depends on how the team is constructed. If a player can mash the ball, but clearly cant play defense (and is hurting his team by doing so), then DH is a perfectly reasonable spot for that player on an AL team, regardless of age.

 

Thing is, with all the new info available to teams, teams are realizing how important defense is. The idea that a player shouldnt be a DH when he's young because other teams havent done that in the past is no reason to not do it.

 

BTW, In the last three years, the team with the best UZR in MLB got to the World Series and the last two years the team with the best UZR in MLB won the World Series.

Edited November 4, 2016 by jimmer

[HitInAPinch]

No "Kennys Vargas Bandwagon" yet?  Surely you must be kidding!

[jimmer]

No "Kennys Vargas Bandwagon" yet? Surely you must be kidding!

oh his bandwagon is there, it is just steered towards starting 1st baseman.

[laloesch]

 

No "Kennys Vargas Bandwagon" yet?  Surely you must be kidding!

 

?

[wsnydes]

I don't have a problem with a rotating DH or having a set DH.  There are pros and cons of each.  I like the flexibility rotating provides, but if you've got a guy with a great bat that can't play a lick of defense, I don't see an issue with having him as the primary DH either.  To me, it largely depends on roster composition.  What works for one team, may not work for others.

[Willihammer]

I'd love to see the Twins settle into an everyday DH.

[Doomtints]

The Twins had a guy who really only fits at DH (Sano), had another guy who there is only room for at DH (Vargas), but then went and signed a full time DH (Park). 

 

And yet some of us here feel that the Twins use the DH position to provide semi-days-off for hitters.  

 

Very confusing, no?

[jimmer]

For me, the bigger picture problem is the fact that a team can only have 25 players.

 

Now that teams have five starting pitchers instead of four, and need larger bullpens (for reasons such as pitch counts limiting starters' innings and new info about effectiveness of starters the more times a lineup sees them) only having 25 spots on the roster severely limits options for a team like never before (especially AL teams which start a game with 10 players instead of 9.) A lot of teams simply cant afford to have a permanent DH due to further cramping roster flexibilty during the game. If baseball took a look at how the game has changed and then expanded rosters to 27 (while limiting the amount of pitcher to, say, 13) I think more teams employ a more permanent DH.

Edited November 4, 2016 by jimmer

[wsnydes]

 

For me, the bigger picture problem is the fact that a team can only have 25 players.

Now that teams have five starting pitchers instead of four, and need larger bullpens (for reasons such as pitch counts limiting starters' innings and new info about effectiveness of starters the more times a lineup sees them) only having 25 spots on the roster severely limits options for a team like never before (especially AL teams which start a game with 10 players instead of 9.) A lot of teams simply cant afford to have a permanent DH. If baseball took a look at how the game has changed and then expanded rosters to 27 (while limiting the amount of pitcher to, say, 13) i think more teams employ a more permanent DH.

I almost wonder if teams would use a rotating DH more if rosters expanded.  In some cases, I wonder if the manager would use the DH spot to keep some of the more offensive minded bench players sharp at the plate for when they do start or are needed for PH duty.  It could go either way, but I think you bring up a good point.  

[Tom Froemming]

 

There is a serious lack of Jason Tyner references in this.....

You're right, had a feeling I missed something.

 

Tyner was the DH 12 times in 2006 and was second in DH appearances in '07 with 26, which was only 10 away from the team leader, Jason Kubel. Of course, that was under Gardy.

 

Here are some interesting guys Molitor has used at DH the past two seasons: Eduardo Nunez (22 total), Eduardo Escobar (10 total), Danny Santana (9 total), Shane Robinson (5), Kurt Suzuki (4) and Juan Centeno, Logan Schafer and Chris Herrmann all had one appearance as a DH.

[Willihammer]

Molitor's September lineups were the final kidney punches of last season. Kurt Suzuki started 3 times at DH and James Beresford 4 times at 1B.

[Doomtints]

 

Molitor's September lineups were the final kidney punches of last season. Kurt Suzuki started 3 times at DH and James Beresford 4 times at 1B.

 

Hopefully that will be the last hurrah of the "wtf were they thinking?" actions we see from Twins management for a long time.  

[Willihammer]

One of the beat writers asked Molitor about playing the veterans instead of the kids in Sept and his response was "we don't' know who's going to be back next year."

[jimmer]

One of the beat writers asked Molitor about playing the veterans instead of the kids in Sept and his response was "we don't' know who's going to be back next year."

his answer had to be a joke, right? Cause that makes no damn sense. Edited November 4, 2016 by jimmer

[Minniman]

It is nice to have a DH play a majority of games if he is a big bat. Like other players, he needs to play and see pitches to be effective. When he needs a day off, that is when someone else is slotted as the DH and gets the "half day" game.

 

I said at the time that releasing Ortiz was a big mistake. A few Red Sox World Series wins later, a future Hall of Fame nomination to come, and the breaking the Curse of the Bambino makes this move one of the worst in Major League Baseball history.

 

A couple seasons ago, I wanted the Twins to push hard to sign Nelson Cruz for DH duty. Two seasons of 40 home runs and a good average in Seattle show that would have been a good move.

 

If Mauer showed power, he would be a good fit for DH. That is moot because he only showed power that one contract year.

 

If the DH is not good enough to be a solid 1st through 5th bat, you need another DH.

[Minniman]

 

One of the beat writers asked Molitor about playing the veterans instead of the kids in Sept and his response was "we don't' know who's going to be back next year."

 

Isn't that why you play them ... to see who should be back?

 

I am not sure I understand the concept.

 

[markos]

 

P.S., I have no idea why you wouldn't trust Fangraphs' filter other than just not trusting info from Fangraphs in general.

I'm not sure it is completely obvious how the positional filters work. For example, for individuals, if you filter by DH, does that include all hitters that had at least 1 at bat as a DH? Or is there a certain qualification level (min PA? games?)? Or maybe majority PAs or games at DH? And does it just show their stats as DH, or include their full-season stats across all positions? 

 

At the team level, how are the above decisions aggregated together? 

 

Example:

AL teams, 2011-2016, DH filter, sorted by wRC+:

Twins are #6 with 111 wRC+

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=dh&stats=bat&lg=al&qual=0&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=2011&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=16,d

 

Click on 'Twins' in the list, and you get this list of players:

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=dh&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=2011&ind=0&team=8&rost=0&age=0

 

AL teams, 2011-2016, Split - DH, sorted by wRC+:

Twins are #8 with 102 wRC+

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=al&qual=0&type=1&season=2016&month=44&season1=2011&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=16,d

 

Click on 'Twins' in the list, and you get a very different list:

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2016&month=44&season1=2011&ind=0&team=8&rost=0&age=0

 

I think the latter list (Split - DH) is the correct list for this discussion.

 

In general, I ignore the filter position options and only use the Split - <position> dropdown box when trying to look at performance at a single position. It's not that I don't trust the Fangraphs data; I just don't know the nuances of their filtering algorithm and so I'm never exactly sure what it is displaying.

[old nurse]

 

if you dont trust their filters, why use them to try and make a point? Makes no sense. Like saying, I have an opinion about something, and I'd like to prove it to you by using data I have zero faith in.

P.S., I have no idea why you wouldn't trust Fangraphs' filter other than just not trusting info from Fangraphs in general.

They have a program to filter and sort.  Any program  is only as good as the effort that went into it. The number just seems off. The total AB of the teams are very different. The filter could be including all of the AB of a person who played DH. The same time period though shows how underperforming the Twin's bats have been  So it seemed unlikely that they were using all of the AB of the player or the Twins were really effective in their use of the DH given the players they had. There are people out there who have access to better tools might be inspired to look rather than take fangraphs word for it.  Like this response, I really didn't want to spend any more time on it.

 

[jimmer]

They have a program to filter and sort. Any program is only as good as the effort that went into it. The number just seems off. The total AB of the teams are very different. The filter could be including all of the AB of a person who played DH. The same time period though shows how underperforming the Twin's bats have been So it seemed unlikely that they were using all of the AB of the player or the Twins were really effective in their use of the DH given the players they had. There are people out there who have access to better tools might be inspired to look rather than take fangraphs word for it. Like this response, I really didn't want to spend any more time on it.

but you still managed to use the info to try and back up your opinion on the production of Twins DH from 2011-2016. If that data is unreliable, in your opinion, why bother to use it at all? See my point?

 

You want to respond telling me why you think its unreliable, while avoiding the larger question which was why use the info to support an opinion if you dont trust the info?

Edited November 4, 2016 by jimmer