Article: Three-Bagger: Heat, Holland & Handbook

[Nick Nelson]

In 1991, the Minnesota Twins and Atlanta Braves battled to the bitter end in a World Series for the ages. Now, 25 years later, the Cleveland Indians and Chicago Cubs are on their way to another epic Fall Classic, with Tuesday's Cubs victory sending this thrilling series to a decisive Game 7.

 

While we wait for the offseason to officially get underway, here's a smattering of Twins notes.* In his Q&A column at Baseball America on Tuesday, JJ Cooper was asked about mino leaguers capable of hitting triple digits on the radar gun. His lengthy list includes two Twins. The first is Pat Light, whose powerful yet erratic fastball was on display in Minnesota this year after he was acquired from the Red Sox in the Fernando Abad deadline deal. The second is Fernando Romero. That name might not be too familiar to casual fans, but it will be soon.

 

When Seth released his season-ending Top 50 Twins prospects list a month ago, Romero ranked second, ahead of such vaunted talents as Alex Kirilloff, Nick Gordon and Tyler Jay. This may seem stunning given that Romero was nowhere to be found on our preseason Top 20 list.

 

But the hard-throwing righty has quickly placed himself squarely back on the radar after being AWOL for a lengthy stretch. Signed out of the Dominican Republic as a teenager back in 2011, he opened some eyes with his rookie ball performances before missing most of 2014 and all of 2015 due to elbow and knee surgeries. This year he returned with a sparkling 1.89 ERA and 90-to-15 K/BB ratio in 16 starts between Cedar Rapids and Fort Myers.

 

While he has touched 100 MPH, Romero typically works in the mid-90s as a starter, with quality secondary offerings to boot. He might be the only pitcher in the system right now boasting true "ace" potential.

 

* When I wrote a few weeks ago that the Twins need to get creative in their pursuit of pitching help this offseason, one of my suggestions was to target a buy-low free agent starter like Derek Holland. I figured there was a good chance that the veteran lefty, who has made only 35 starts for Texas over the past three years due to injuries, would have his $11 million team option for 2017 bought out.

 

The Rangers may still do that, but it looks like they'll see if they can find a trade partner first. This is noteworthy of course because the club's assistant GM, Thad Levine, is reportedly heading to Minnesota to assume general manager duties.

 

Holland lacks enough upside to generate much excitement, but he was a solid young pitcher for the Rangers before running into his extended injury woes. Texas wouldn't be able to command much of anything in exchange for him, but therein lies the appeal. This will be a situation worth keeping an eye on.

 

* Late last week we teased our newest Offseason Handbook, noting that it will be officially released at the conclusion of the World Series, per usual.

 

The fact that this series has been pushed to seven games means that the Handbook's release has been delayed, but with things ready to wrap up in Cleveland, the Handbook will definitely be out by night's end. As we explained in our teaser post, this year's version will feature a dynamic pricing structure, enabling you to get it for free if you so please.

 

Make sure to check in tonight after the game or first thing tomorrow morning to grab your copy!

 

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[Mike Sixel]

Good stuff. I like these.

[mikelink45]

Not excited by Holland.  If we are going to put a no upside starter in the rotation lets roll with a young guy already in the system or many of them.  With Holland in the rotation we would still have a good shot at 90 losses.  If we do not get a true 1 or 2 don't bother.  

[Vanimal46]

Holland is a buy low pitcher I'd certainly be interested in acquiring. Toss them a prospect or 2 and see if he can bounce back. 

[Winston Smith]

Buy low at $11 mill a year? What is this world coming to?

[Vanimal46]

 

Buy low at $11 mill a year? What is this world coming to?

You may want to shield your eyes when some of these FAs sign this winter.... Also, don't even bother looking at basketball contracts. Those will make you question whether we're living in a fantasy land. 

[Monkeypaws]

I was wondering why the Twins would want to sign the singer from the Offspring for their pitching staff, then I realized it was Derek Holland, not Dexter.

[HitInAPinch]

If the Twins had a couple good+ starters already, I'd take a flyer on Holland.  Right now, with the veterans we're already locked into, I'd rather keep on the 'promote from within' track that was started last year with the INF / OF. 

[Vanimal46]

FWIW, this was on the MLBTradeRumors chat:

Adam

3:11 Who do you see the Rangers trading Holland for?

 

Steve Adams
3:12 No one that great. Someone will pick up the tab on him and either send back a reliever with a not-insignificant price tag or some borderline prospects. Holland is a decent upside play because of the 2018 option, but with all of the shoulder injuries and knee problems over the past three years, his contract doesn't have much in the way of surplus value for 2017. I think exercising it (or trading him to a team that will) is the right call though.

Edited November 2, 2016 by Vanimal46

[Cory Engelhardt]

I'd absolutely trade for him and let him make 15-20 starts (if healthy) and then the Twins can absolutely net something better for him at the deadline than they would be trading for him this offseason. That would be the reason to pick him up.

Course, if he isn't healthy, it's a wash. That's the worst that can happen.

[brvama]

I don't know if Holland would be a good move. I think I'd be more inclined toward Clay Bucholz if Boston declines his option.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Bucholz could be a good buy low candidate too. No argument there.

[Tom Froemming]

Looks like Holland's option is $11 million. So compared to Hector Santiago he's more expensive, older and has a worse career ERA+. Pitching staff needs to improve, but I'm not so sure Holland's the guy I'd be after.

[Vanimal46]

 

Looks like Holland's option is $11 million. So compared to Hector Santiago he's more expensive, older and has a worse career ERA+. Pitching staff needs to improve, but I'm not so sure Holland's the guy I'd be after.

Understandable. My thought process is acquiring someone like Holland gives the Twins more flexibility to shop Santana and not rely on Mejia/Gonsalves to come in right away. For the price of a borderline prospect such as ABW, there's not a lot of risk to acquire Holland. 

[markos]

 

Understandable. My thought process is acquiring someone like Holland gives the Twins more flexibility to shop Santana and not rely on Mejia/Gonsalves to come in right away. For the price of a borderline prospect such as ABW, there's not a lot of risk to acquire Holland. 

That makes sense to me. A lot depends on the direction the team goes. As you said, if they decide on a tear down and Santana is traded, they still need innings. Holland is a pretty decent lottery ticket. A decent 3-4 months and they could easily get more value back at the deadline. But if they decide to try to get better this year, I don't think he makes as much sense.

[markos]

Random thought: I wonder if a Santana-for-Holland+Profar trade makes sense for both clubs.

[Cory Engelhardt]

If we are talking buy low trade candidates, what do people think it would take to acquire Taijuan Walker of the Mariners?

[Winston Smith]

Buy low? I bet we could get Pelfry really cheap from the Tigers.

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

Buy low? I bet we could get Pelfry really cheap from the Tigers.

 

I was hoping for people that potentially still have potential.

[GP830]

I was wondering why the Twins would want to sign the singer from the Offspring for their pitching staff, then I realized it was Derek Holland, not Dexter.

Their names are close, which is why you've gotta keep 'em separated.

[DocBauer]

Looks like Holland's option is $11 million. So compared to Hector Santiago he's more expensive, older and has a worse career ERA+. Pitching staff needs to improve, but I'm not so sure Holland's the guy I'd be after.

 

Beat me to it.

 

Holland is 30, Santiago is 28. Holland does have more total wins, while Santiago has the better ERA and they have almost identical WHIPs. Santiago, of course, is cheaper and doesn't necessitate a trade. (I know some prefer advanced stats, I'm just covering the basics here).

 

I understand the arguement for someone like Holland to help "cover" ourselves for a potential Santana trade. And I can see that point. But assuming we get a ML ready SP for Dozier, we'd also have Gibson, Santiago, May and Berrios with Wheeler a possible, Mejia and Gonsalves in the wings, Duffey still a candidate, and Hughes as a possible candidate at some point. (Though I'm not holding my breath on Hughes).

 

I think I'd pass, even if we do move Santana. And, as I've stated previously, I'm not opposed to keeping Santana, even if it's until the deadline.

[jimmer]

Holland's FIP is like a half run lower than Santiago's

 

Santiago has been helped by pitching in a a better park for pitchers.  Holland has pitched in Ranger's park, an offensive haven.

 

Not that I suggest having Holland, but he's probably a better pitcher than Santiago regardless of ERA.

Edited November 3, 2016 by jimmer

[TheLeviathan]

Here's something.....would you trade Ervin Santana for Holland and Profar?  Maybe with another prospect from Texas in it?