Article: Falvey, Levine Well-Suited To Solve Roster Riddles

[Doomtints]

 

i have watched him play a lot AND by looking at his advanced metrics, they match what my eyes have seen. I see A very good defender having a poor defensive offseason (of which i have watched every game), which many of my friends who are cubs fans, including one of my best friends, also say.

Bte, sano is horrible with DRS and is negative at UZR. The eyes say the same as the metrics.

 

Negative Total Zone and UZR, sure.  But it's not tragically negative and it is based on a small sample size.  Those numbers are weighted for an entire season.  A small negative in a small sample suddenly becomes -8 when stretched to a full season.  And -8 over a full season isn't a big deal.  I'm assuming you knew straight up that the theory with Sano was that his offense would overcome his defensive liability.  And even though he was not offensively great last year, that did happen.  

[Mike Sixel]

 

For being such a stupid, dumb move... how does it compare to starting Carlos Santana in LF during the WORLD SERIES when he has never started a game in the OF before?

Never mind a full offseason and spring training to get ready. If Santana is 5'11", 210 as listed, then I'd be listed at something like 5'11", 105.

It didn't work out, but it wasn't nearly as terrible of a move as many here try to make it out to be...

 

It was just two games, though, and it was because they are an AL team playing in an NL park....so, ya, it is totally different that doing it on purpose for a full year, at the beginning of the year...100% not comparable at all.

[gunnarthor]

Good grief.  Moving players around at the ML level happens all the time through out baseball history.  Dale Murphy was a catcher in the minors and played literally one inning in the OF before Atlanta made him their center fielder.  Dave Winfield was drafted as a pitcher, played firstbase in college and never spent a day in the minors.  He learned the OF at the ML level. Mookie Betts didn't play in the OF at all until he was pressed into service in Boston.  Craig Biggio was a minor league catcher who was moved to CF and 2B in the majors.  etc, etc.

 

All of these guys - like Sano - had ML ready bats pretty fast.  The argument against Sano is that he was too big but that's not much of an argument.  We already see some pretty big OFers out there - Stanton, Trout, Hamilton all look like NFL linebackers out there.  Players are rapidly changing and getting much bigger - 270 pound outfielders will happen.  The days of 6', 180lb Jack Clark LFers are long gone.  

 

The Twins had two choices with Sano - play him at third or play him in right.  If they played him at third, it would have meant dropping Plouffe for nothing - there was no market for him.  No team is going to make a 22 year old kid the permanent DH without eliminating every other option, especially when they are concerned about his weight.  So they put the better defender at third.   It didn't work.  

 

There were a lot of reasons why it didn't work out - I think the chief one was how little Sano prepared for it.  Despite what the Twins said, Twins reporters reported that he didn't do much before ST and didn't seem to be very enthused about the move.  Heck, several TD posters noted his apathy in ST toward the move.  But the idea that the Twins were wrong to try this because he didn't play it in the minors - esp when he missed a full year in the minors but still made the majors at 21 - is ridiculous.  

[Doomtints]

 

 

There were a lot of reasons why it didn't work out - I think the chief one was how little Sano prepared for it.  Despite what the Twins said, Twins reporters reported that he didn't do much before ST and didn't seem to be very enthused about the move.  Heck, several TD posters noted his apathy in ST toward the move.  But the idea that the Twins were wrong to try this because he didn't play it in the minors - esp when he missed a full year in the minors but still made the majors at 21 - is ridiculous.  

 

That's right.  Most outfielders in the majors start as infielders and transition to the OF because those positions are considered easier and the teams are more interested in the player's bat.

 

Usually this does not happen on the center stage in the majors, with a young player who is already going to be prone to mistakes.  Usually it happens in the minors (where fans simply don't see it) or with older players who lose the physical ability to play in the infield.  

 

Bill James wrote a long chapter about the "defensive spectrum" and how players can, if given a full season, transition to the OF from the infield.  The transition from the OF to the IF is, in his words, impossible.  But James wasn't able to find a clear example of a player not being able to move from the IF to the OF.  It seems frightfully strange that Sano would be the first one.  Fans can be as loud about Sano's failure as they want, it doesn't change anything.

Edited November 1, 2016 by Doomtints

[TheLeviathan]

Because other teams throughout history chose to forsake defense to get a kid to hit doesn't make it a good idea.  Most failed conversions to other positions happen long before a player reaches the major leagues.  

 

Hell, experimenting like that are what the minors should be for.  Not your major league outfield.

 

I'm kind of done forsaking defense.  And we know how much of a problem is causes.  The Twins were wrong because they willfully hurt their team by their own roster construction.

Edited November 1, 2016 by TheLeviathan

[Mike Sixel]

Did you just compare amazing athletes to Sano?

 

They absolutely could have had him in the OF in the minors. Heck, they didn't play Polanco at SS the whole year, then called him up to play......SS. This is a misalignment between the minors and the majors and not having plans, IMO.

 

But, feel free to say our opinions are ridiculous.

[Squirrel]

Okay, come on, guys, really. Quit being so dismissive of and disrespectful to one another. It gets so old.

 

And I won't even get into how jacked this thread got, starting with post #2.

[jimmer]

Negative Total Zone and UZR, sure. But it's not tragically negative and it is based on a small sample size. Those numbers are weighted for an entire season. A small negative in a small sample suddenly becomes -8 when stretched to a full season. And -8 over a full season isn't a big deal. I'm assuming you knew straight up that the theory with Sano was that his offense would overcome his defensive liability. And even though he was not offensively great last year, that did happen.

and -8 DRS in only 313 innings in RF, which if extrapolated to, say, 950 innings or so would have had him dead last for qualifying RFs. Even without extrapolating, only two qualifing RFs had a DRS worse than -3. Bruce at #16 of 17 qualifying RFs had -11 DRS, of course, he played almost 4 times as many innings out there.

 

42 players had 300 or more innings in RF this year, 3 had a worse DRS. I already mentioned Bruce as one, another was Trumbo who had -9, and more than twice as many innings out there.

Edited November 1, 2016 by jimmer

[Doomtints]

 

and -8 DRS in only 313 innings in RF, which if extrapolated to, say, 950 innings or so would have had him dead last for qualifying RFs. Even without extrapolating, only two qualifing RFs had a DRS worse than -3. Bruce at #16 of 17 qualifying RFs had -11 DRS, of course, he played almost 4 times as many innings out there.

42 players had 300 or more innings in RF this year, 3 had a worse DRS. I already mentioned Bruce as one, another was Trumbo who had -9, and more than twice as many innings out there.

 

The -8 is the extrapolated number.  

[jimmer]

The -8 is the extrapolated number.

no it isnt. DRS is adjusted by play (the number will move up and down through the season)and Sanos DRS stopped at -8 when he stopped playing RF. If he had kept playing, it likely ends up in the -20s.

 

Unlike UZRs extrapolated number, UZR/150, there is no DRS/150

Edited November 1, 2016 by jimmer

[Doomtints]

 

his is a misalignment between the minors and the majors and not having plans, IMO.

 

Very true.  This is a symptom of a bigger problem.  Sano learning OF in the majors blew up in Ryan's face, even if his failure was exaggerated.  This should have been done in the minors and they should have communicated their plans to Sano.  Without Sano buying into the idea it was not going to work.

Polanco has been treated bizarrely by this team for a long time.  Fans have bought into the idea that he's a marginal player, this in spite of his great performance in the organization 4 years running.  A fresh front office will help Polanco more than anything and fans will figure him out over time.    

Edited November 1, 2016 by Doomtints

[gunnarthor]

 

Did you just compare amazing athletes to Sano?

 

They absolutely could have had him in the OF in the minors. Heck, they didn't play Polanco at SS the whole year, then called him up to play......SS. This is a misalignment between the minors and the majors and not having plans, IMO.

 

But, feel free to say our opinions are ridiculous.

Sano is probably a better athlete than Murphy and Winfield.  The players today are so much bigger, faster, stronger and just better than those from even the 90s.  Dale Murphy said this:

 

"“I don’t think I could have played today,” he says. “Hey, I’d love to play now. But, you know what? These kids are better than us. They’re better players. We might not want to admit it, but we go back and look at old highlights of ourselves and compare it to these kids now: No comparison. Everybody throws 95 mph-plus. Their swings are so much more fine tuned. They’re in so much better condition. And they make plays — I watch them and I say, ‘Wow.’ Athletically, I don’t think I could compete today.”"

 

They could have moved Sano to the OF in 2013.  Sure.  But I don't see why.  He was still playing third and learning the game. You don't move players down the spectrum until you have to.  They didn't have to and they didn't know he'd miss all of 2014 and be in the majors in July 2015.

[Mike Sixel]

Wait, Dave Winfield, drafted by the NBA, NFL and MLB was a worse athlete than Sano, for the era? 

 

We will just disagree on that, I guess.

[gunnarthor]

 

Wait, Dave Winfield, drafted by the NBA, NFL and MLB was a worse athlete than Sano, for the era? 

 

We will just disagree on that, I guess.

Sure.  He is also a better athlete than Noel Jenke, Mickey McCarty and Dave Logan.  

 

Murphy is right - the differences between players today and the 80s (and the 70s in Winfield's case) is stunning.  Offensive linemen didn't weigh 270, now some of them push 400 and run speed drills under 5 seconds.  Baseball players are getting bigger and stronger.  Sano is among the top tier for that right now but he's not unique and other players will eventually be bigger than him.  

[dxpavelka]

 

Just look at the set back it was to Miguel Cabrera's career when the moved him to the outfield to start his career. Bottom line - no matter where Sano plays, he is a bad fielder. It's his bat they need in the lineup.

The only thing that has any bearing on Miguel Sano's career is where HE plays. 

[dxpavelka]

 

For being such a stupid, dumb move... how does it compare to starting Carlos Santana in LF during the WORLD SERIES when he has never started a game in the OF before?

Never mind a full offseason and spring training to get ready. If Santana is 5'11", 210 as listed, then I'd be listed at something like 5'11", 105.

It didn't work out, but it wasn't nearly as terrible of a move as many here try to make it out to be...

Totally different.  Established, 7 year veteran with a thousand big league games under his belt only asked to start 2 games. 

[TheLeviathan]

 

Sure.  He is also a better athlete than Noel Jenke, Mickey McCarty and Dave Logan.  

 

Murphy is right - the differences between players today and the 80s (and the 70s in Winfield's case) is stunning.  Offensive linemen didn't weigh 270, now some of them push 400 and run speed drills under 5 seconds.  Baseball players are getting bigger and stronger.  Sano is among the top tier for that right now but he's not unique and other players will eventually be bigger than him.  

 

But this speaks more to the point that back then they were ok putting crappy fielders around because the degree of athleticism was so small that there wasn't much of a difference.  I think if we could go back and eye test your examples you wouldn't be so quick to prop them up as good examples.  

[Willihammer]

Dave Winfield got a full scholarship to the U of MN - for basketball. Sano is not more athletic than Dave Winfield.

[Doomtints]

 

Dave Winfield got a full scholarship to the U of MN - for basketball. Sano is not more athletic than Dave Winfield.

Nor is he a better ballplayer, so far....

[Tom Froemming]

Soooo ... thinking I should probably write something about Miguel Sano this week, since that's all anybody seems to want to talk about

[gunnarthor]

 

Dave Winfield got a full scholarship to the U of MN - for basketball. Sano is not more athletic than Dave Winfield.

Sure he is.  Sano is a lot more athletic than many athletes from the 70s.  Here's some video of the 1972 ALCS - 

 

Those guys are not at the level of athletes we see today.  It's not even close.  It's nice that Winfield got a scholarship for basketball but so did Flip Saunders. 

[gunnarthor]

 

It's a Simpsons reference.  But seriously, you're citing team decision making from a range 20-30+ years in the past.  That doesn't seem flakey to you?

Or, you know, two years ago with Betts to show that it's been a constant thing throughout baseball history but feel free to ignore the examples that you don't like.

[gunnarthor]

 

Is there not a difference between "teams do it" and "should teams do it?"

 

You seem caught in the fallacy of thinking they are the same thing.

Profar never played first in the minors.  Ian Desmond played 8 innings in the OF in the minors before TX put him in CF this year.  Teams do it all the time.  Players move down the defensive spectrum.  Puckett to right, Yount to the OF, Betts to CF, Napoli to first.  As explained above, the Twins had a few options - cut Plouffe for nothing or play Sano in RF.  Moving Sano down the defensive spectrum isn't that controversial.  The reason it didn't work is probably not because Sano is too big but probably because Sano didn't work hard enough to make the change work.  

[TheLeviathan]

 

 Teams do it all the time. 

I think this just confirms that you don't see the distinction.  

[Vanimal46]

 

Soooo ... thinking I should probably write something about Miguel Sano this week, since that's all anybody seems to want to talk about

Why waste high quality material at the beginning of the off-season? It's best to save those gems during January when literally nothing else is going on... That'll kill a couple of weeks while we wait for real baseball to start again! 

[USAFChief]

 

Sure he is.  Sano is a lot more athletic than many athletes from the 70s.  Here's some video of the 1972 ALCS - 

 

Those guys are not at the level of athletes we see today.  It's not even close.  It's nice that Winfield got a scholarship for basketball but so did Flip Saunders. 

Athletes in general have gotten gradually bigger and marginally faster since the 70s.  That much is true.

 

But Sano is not "more athletic" than Dave Winfield.  Winfield led the Big Ten in rebounding one year.  He was a fantastic college pitcher in addition to outfielder.  He was drafted by TWO different professional basketball leagues, an NFL team, and of course the Padres in MLB.  

 

And for what it's worth, Flip Saunders was VERY athletic.  He was a starting Big Ten point guard, ferpetesakes.

 

There were athletes in the 70's, too.  Good ones.

 

As they say..you could look it up.

[jimmer]

In the 70s, how good were 3Bs at catching pop-ups in the IF? :-)

[Mike Sixel]

 

Athletes in general have gotten gradually bigger and marginally faster since the 70s.  That much is true.

 

But Sano is not "more athletic" than Dave Winfield.  Winfield led the Big Ten in rebounding one year.  He was a fantastic college pitcher in addition to outfielder.  He was drafted by TWO different professional basketball leagues, an NFL team, and of course the Padres in MLB.  

 

And for what it's worth, Flip Saunders was VERY athletic.  He was a starting Big Ten point guard, ferpetesakes.

 

There were athletes in the 70's, too.  Good ones.

 

As they say..you could look it up.

 

Three leagues, also the NBA, sir. 

[Willihammer]

 

In the 70s, how good were 3Bs at catching pop-ups in the IF? :-)

They were worse but scorekeepers were more lax in those days, didn't usually go as an error.

[Mike Sixel]

It's clear that athletes today are generally, nearly always, better than back in the day......but I guess I was comparing Winfield to his peers, relative to Sano to his peers......and that's no contest.

 

I'm not sure Sano is better even w/o taking into account 40 years of genetics and training and whatnot...what was this thread about, again?