Article: Following The Cubs' Blueprint

[Cody Christie]

Only two short seasons the Cubs were in the midst of five straight seasons of 87 losses or more. This included a 101-loss season in 2012. Flash-forward to the present day and the Cubs have been rebuilt and are four wins away from their first World Series title in over 100 years.

 

Minnesota is in a similar spot to the Chicago teams from 2010-14. Can the Twins mount a similar turnaround in the years to come? How can Derek Falvey, the Twins new chief of baseball operations, follow the Chicago blueprint?Find Pitching

One simple message is plastered across the conference room wall for Chicago's baseball operations staff... "FIND PITCHING." Three-fifths of the Cubs rotation was signed as free agents. NLCS co-MVP Jon Lester signed a six-year, $155 million in December 2014. Jason Hammel signed a two-year deal ($32 million)in the same off-season as Lester and John Lackey joined the rotation this past off-season.

 

Two of Chicago's best starting pitchers joined the team in very favorable trades. Jake Arrieta, the 2015 NL Cy Young winner, was acquired for catcher Steve Clevenger and right-handed pitcher Scott Feldman. Kyle Hendricks, the hero of the NLCS clinching game, came to Chicago for right-handed pitcher Ryan Dempster. A change of scenery and new coaches helped both of these pitchers develop into front of the rotation arms.

 

Minnesota's recent search for pitching has left plenty to desire. Ricky Nolasco signed a four-year, $49 million deal before the 2014 season. During his three years in Minnesota, he posted a 5.44 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP while being worth a -0.3 WAR. Phil Hughes looked great in his first season in Minnesota so the Twins signed him to a long-term deal. He struggled in 2015 before missing most of 2016 with an injury. Ervin Santana, another free-agent signing, was the team's best pitcher this season but there weren't many options.

 

Falvey and the team he assembles are going to have a mission and that mission will be to find pitching.

 

Youth Movement

When a team is playing poorly, it's easy to say let the young prospects play. This isn't always the best strategy as there are plenty of ups-and-downs and sometimes patience can be the key. The Cubs have a young core including Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, and Javier Baez. Some patience has been required along the way.

 

Baez, the NLCS co-MVP, spent most of 2014 and 2015 going back and forth between the minor leagues and the big league roster. Bryant lead the National League in strikeouts a year ago and he will likely win the 2016 NL MVP award. Russell has yet to hit over .242 in a season but raised his OPS from .696 last year to .738 this season. Patience seems to have paid off.

 

Epstein has even referenced Kansas City's approach with young players to build a World Series roster. Players like Alex Gordon, Mike Moustakas, and Eric Hosmer took years to develop into solid everyday players. "You experience a lot of valleys along the way, whether it's being demoted or having a difficult month or year," Epstein told Sporting News. "In the end, they were rewarded for their patience."

 

Minnesota will need to follow a similar strategy with their young core. Miguel Sano finished third in the 2015 AL Rookie of the Year voting before struggling through parts of 2016. Byron Buxton has been demoted multiple times before a strong final month of the season. Jose Berrios has dominated Triple-A but his MLB starts have been disappointing.

 

Twins fans have waited for this young core to show promising signs. However, fans will need to continue to show patience.

 

Managerial Switch

When the Twins let Terry Ryan go, ownership made it clear that Paul Molitor would be the Twins manager entering the 2017 season. Molitor surprised many during his rookie managerial season by leading the Twins to the cusp of the playoffs. This ended a streak of four straight 90 loss seasons. Things got worse in 2016 as the Twins lost a team record 103 games which was the worst record in baseball.

 

Since Epstein joined the Cubs in 2011, Chicago has employed three different managers. Dale Sveum averaged over 98 losses per season. Rick Renteria posted a more respectable 73-89 record but he was only given one season to turn the team around. Joe Maddon, considered by many to be one of baseball's best managers, took the reigns last season. In both seasons, he's had the Cubs in the NLCS with an average of 100 wins per season.

 

Molitor might be the right man for the job but Falvey could want his own man at the helm. Even if Molitor survives the coming season, it's hard to know what the future will hold. Changing managers worked in Chicago but Maddon isn't going to come knocking in Minnesota.

 

This is just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to the blueprint for changing things in Minnesota. Epstein has worked his magic with multiple organizations and his ideas have spread throughout baseball. What do the Twins need to do? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

 

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[gunnarthor]

It seems that we should probably focus on what teams in our payroll (and maybe our league) are doing - maybe the last two WS teams? 

 

I get that that Cubs are the "it" team but they really aren't a good comparison to what the Twins can do.

[KirbyDome89]

 

It seems that we should probably focus on what teams in our payroll (and maybe our league) are doing - maybe the last two WS teams? 

 

I get that that Cubs are the "it" team but they really aren't a good comparison to what the Twins can do.

I disagree. The Twins certainly can develop young talent, make good trades, find a manager who is can be patient with the young players, and make good mid level FA pitching signings. I wouldn't even rule out the possibility of an "ace," pitcher acquisition until Falvey takes over and we have a better idea of what the plan is for this team. 

[Penthang]

The Twins are always going to have to build from within, but we have seen them go and add through free agency. What they can't do is have another Nolasco like signing. When they do spend those free agent dollars they need to get value back. Ryan could very often turn low wattage free agent signings into something but wigged too many times when he handed out bigger, longer contracts. I am hoping that Falvey and his team can make their free agent splashes count for more while keeping the young core together as they get more expensive, and when they get too expensive choosing the right ones to keep.

[theBOMisthebomb]

Start building the bullpen into an asset where when the starting pitcher makes it into the 5th inning or later with a lead that lead is secure. It should be easier to build a bullpen quicker than a starting rotation. Ideally build both a new bullpen and starting rotation, you just have to start somewhere.

[hybridbear]

If only the Twins had hired Maddon back when the Cubs did...

[big dog]

Maddon opted out and was interviewing in Chicago about 20 minutes later.  I don't think anyone else, especially the Twins, had any chance.

 

Payroll discrepancy is pretty large, except for 2014 (figures from Baseball Prospectus).  Money well-spent, by and large, but a lot of it spent.

 

Year   Cubs $   Twins $

2012  $111        $100

2013  $107        $ 82

2014  $ 93         $ 93

2015  $120        $108

2016  $172        $105

 

Total five-year gap is $115 million.  That's only a difference of one top player, say Jon Lester, and a role player, and clearly the talent gap is just a little bit wider than that.

 

[ThejacKmp]

 

I disagree. The Twins certainly can develop young talent, make good trades, find a manager who is can be patient with the young players, and make good mid level FA pitching signings. I wouldn't even rule out the possibility of an "ace," pitcher acquisition until Falvey takes over and we have a better idea of what the plan is for this team. 

 

Disagree with your disagreement :-)

 

The Cubs (wisely) eschewed a lot of pitching development knowing that they had the resources and draw to go sign the Lesters and Lackeys when their position players started to develop. The Twins aren't a draw for guys like Lackey and they don't have the financials to sign guys like Lester.

 

We can try to emulate the Arrieta/Hendricks aspects (though really, what teams aren't trying to do that? It's easier said than done.) Perhaps Ervin Santana fits that Ryan Dempster-type who can be flipped for some solid pitching prospects. But again, easier said than done and there's a fair amount of luck involved in it.

 

The better comparison would be the Indians, who developed much of their pitching in house. Hopefully the new GM can get better results from the Twins many intriguing pitching prospects and add in a few of outside lottery ticket types that may pan out.

[ThejacKmp]

 

If only the Twins had hired Maddon back when the Cubs did...

 

Yeah, the Twins had no chance. I'm not sure that Maddon would have gone to MN no matter the amount they threw at him. The Cubs job was such a great job and it was Maddon's for the taking. Hard to compete.

[markos]

 

Disagree with your disagreement :-)

 

The Cubs (wisely) eschewed a lot of pitching development knowing that they had the resources and draw to go sign the Lesters and Lackeys when their position players started to develop. The Twins aren't a draw for guys like Lackey and they don't have the financials to sign guys like Lester.

 

We can try to emulate the Arrieta/Hendricks aspects (though really, what teams aren't trying to do that? It's easier said than done.) Perhaps Ervin Santana fits that Ryan Dempster-type who can be flipped for some solid pitching prospects. But again, easier said than done and there's a fair amount of luck involved in it.

 

The better comparison would be the Indians, who developed much of their pitching in house. Hopefully the new GM can get better results from the Twins many intriguing pitching prospects and add in a few of outside lottery ticket types that may pan out.

I don't disagree that the Twins can't exactly mimic the Cubs when it comes to building a pitching rotation. But almost every good rotation has pitchers that are still under team control that were acquired from other organizations. The majority of Cleveland's rotation are all guys acquired from other organizations: Kluber, Carrasco and Bauer. The Mets have Thor and Wheeler. The Nats have Roark and Gonzales. The Red Sox have Pomeranz and Rodriguez. Given that they aren't going to go out and sign a Price/Lester/Cueto/Scherzer, they will almost assuredly need to successfully identify, acquire and develop pitchers that are currently in other organizations.

 

Also, I do think that if the Twins win 97 games with a super-young roster, there will be free agents like Lackey interested in coming to Minnesota. 

[KirbyDome89]

 

Disagree with your disagreement :-)

 

The Cubs (wisely) eschewed a lot of pitching development knowing that they had the resources and draw to go sign the Lesters and Lackeys when their position players started to develop. The Twins aren't a draw for guys like Lackey and they don't have the financials to sign guys like Lester.

 

We can try to emulate the Arrieta/Hendricks aspects (though really, what teams aren't trying to do that? It's easier said than done.) Perhaps Ervin Santana fits that Ryan Dempster-type who can be flipped for some solid pitching prospects. But again, easier said than done and there's a fair amount of luck involved in it.

 

The better comparison would be the Indians, who developed much of their pitching in house. Hopefully the new GM can get better results from the Twins many intriguing pitching prospects and add in a few of outside lottery ticket types that may pan out.

You might have me on the big FA signing. Maybe its wishful thinking on my part (definitely is), but I'm not ready to let that go until we have a better idea of what Falvey is working with. I agree, identifying and trading for pitchers like Arrieta and Hendricks isn't easy and it won't always work out but its within the means of a competent FO to make deals like that happen. You won't always get a Cy Young pitcher in return, but you can certainly upgrade your pitching in this way, and the Twins absolutely are capable of doing it. Lackey was a solid but unspectacular signing. I don't see the Twins having that much trouble signing a player of that caliber. 

 

You're right the Indians are a closer match. I was just pointing out that basic principals the Cubs followed (save maybe signing a big FA) are definitely repeatable by the Twins. I think people have this idea that because the Cubs payroll is higher the Twins can never emulate anything that they do. Obviously their money helps in signing FAs, covering up bad signings (Heyward!?), moving on from bad trades, ect... Such is life in a sport with no cap. The Twins have to be more careful about where they allocate their money, but following the Cubs blueprint isn't as improbable as some believe. 

 

It would be great if the Twins could develop all their pitching in house, but I just see no way that happens. The closest thing they have to a front line pitcher at this point is Gonsalves? I haven't given up on Berrios but he's looking more like a mid rotation guy right now. The Twins would need to hit on pitchers in the next couple drafts, as well as have pitchers like Gonsalves, Jay, Berrios, and Stewart all reach their ceiling just as an attempt to put together a competitive staff by the time the young core is moving into their prime years. I don't like those odds. The Twins are going to have to be involved in the FA market or make significant trades to bring back top tier pitching. I don't see how the rotation can improve to playoff quality without doing one or both. 

[Willihammer]

Start building the bullpen into an asset where when the starting pitcher makes it into the 5th inning or later with a lead that lead is secure. It should be easier to build a bullpen quicker than a starting rotation. Ideally build both a new bullpen and starting rotation, you just have to start somewhere.

I think you are on something or onto something. Maybe they can even turn a couple of the suspects in the rotation into bullpen assets. I'm thinking about Gibson and Duffey especially. Then maybe they do the same on defense- move Sano to first or DH and plug something resembling a major league catcher and shortstop onto the field. Those are moves a mid-market team ought to be able to accomplish in an offseason. Edited October 25, 2016 by Willihammer

[jimmer]

As a mid-market team, we're doomed, and we should just accept our doom.

Edited October 25, 2016 by jimmer

[Kwak]

The Twins need to eliminate the "I can't ..." attitude. Second on the list to eliminate is "good enough".

 

No team will win the series every year--or even have a winning record every year--but no team with an "I can't ..." attitude will win the series. Likewise for a "good enough" attitude. Sure, making the playoffs is a whole lot better than being "dead last". Fans remember the championship years ('87 and '91) but seriously which teams have reunions for winning a division then losing in the playoffs? 

[Doomtints]

Seems like the Twins are hoping to follow the Indians blueprint rather than the Cubs blueprint.  

 

Maybe that's smart to build from a template from another AL team.

 

Both clubs hired high profile, top tier, and expensive managers, by the way.  

[Lonestar]

_{The Cubs have hardly had a misfire since hiring Theo.  Some part of that is good luck.  Most of the bad luck they have had is Scwarber getting hurt.}

 

_{I give Theo's organization much of the credit.  Falvey can be just as good, just not as lucky.}

 

_{Then there is the difference in payroll.  And the change in free agent economics (nothing like Lester on the market this year).}

Edited October 25, 2016 by Lonestar

[Thrylos]

I think that the Twins should try to follow the Indians' and not the Cubs' blueprint.  The Indians are positioned for sustained success, the Cubs will be relying on new Free Agents when these get ineffective (and have albatross contracts.)  

 

Guess the organization feels this way too, since the new baseball head comes from the Indians and not the Cubs...

[big dog]

I will begin by wishing for a new blueprint.  Indians or Cubs, I'm happy to give it a shot.

 

Maybe not Padres or Diamondbacks, though.

[jimmer]

 

I think that the Twins should try to follow the Indians' and not the Cubs' blueprint.  The Indians are positioned for sustained success, the Cubs will be relying on new Free Agents when these get ineffective (and have albatross contracts.)  

 

Guess the organization feels this way too, since the new baseball head comes from the Indians and not the Cubs...

This Cubs team is set for years and years to come.

[old nurse]

 

This Cubs team is set for years and years to come.

Depends on who they replace Lackey and Hammel with and how Lester and Arietta age.  Underwood bombed in AA, anyone else is a ways off. Zobriest is 35. Montero is 32, Fowler is a FA and the wrong side of 30. Years and years might be 2

[jimmer]

-Fowler is a FA, they have plenty of OF including very young Almora.  

-Montero is 32, Contreras is very young.  

-Zobrist is 35, Baez is young.

-Lester should be in talks for CY this year and only 32.  Arrieta only 30.  Hendricks, Hammels.

 

Rizzo, Bryant, Russell, Schwarber.  All young.

 

Their team is embarrassingly loaded and extremely deep.  Farm system is also loaded (players like Torres and Happ) and some players will traded from there. Team will be contenders for many years.  Well built team by someone who knows how to build them.

Edited October 26, 2016 by jimmer

[TheLeviathan]

Why can't there be elements of the Cubs build we emulate and some we can't?

 

The truth is, we won't ever be dropping multiple giant contracts on guys like Lester and Heyward and still afford guys like Zobrist, Chapman, etc.  That's just reality.  We can't emulate that.  Arguing or denying that just looks silly.

 

What we can do is be smart about investing in upside here in the early years.  Try to find bullpen arms or other avenues to give available spots we have to guys that can build value and be traded.  We can make smart trades like Rizzo and Arrieta.  Some of that is luck, but you can make your own luck by targeting upside.  

 

We can also focus on drafting hitters with high picks because they have more reliable profiles. We can focus on defense.  We can know when to sell like the Cubs did with Smarj and others.  (Like we currently have with Dozier and Santana that some of you seem hell bent on ignoring)

 

So, take some of the good ideas we can replicate and be creative to fill in the rest.

[joemama]

Apparently nobody wants to emulate the Royals anymore? The bottomline for the Twins is that they (we) need to improve our ability to evaluate pitching, then develop what we have within our system and try to get undervalued guys from other organizations. Then, if (hopefully when) we get good enough to challenge for the World Series, we supplement with a FA signing or trades. We also need good leadership - as noted by Doomtints above. I'm convinced it's NOT Moli...he may be a great individual and a great baseball mind but I don't see any way a talented manager leads a team to its worst record in over 50 years. Our talent was poor, but not that poor.

[twinssporto]

Remember the sign that is plastered on the conference room wall in Chicago?  "Find pitching".  If the Twins focus on that one thing it should come together well. 

 

"Find pitching" doesn't mean FA market only.  It means good drafting, trading and coaching.  

 

Here are some current positives:

 

1. The Twins have a good core of young talent now. 

2. There are some strong minor league players in the system.

3. We have had some decent draft positions and get the #1 pick this year.

 

Just focus on the pitching.

 

Oh, and maybe a catcher too...

[Mike Sixel]

 

As a mid-market team, we're doomed, and we should just accept our doom.

 

That seems to be what some here believe, yes. We just should expect multiple years of being one of the worst teams in the league, and even if they get lucky, we shouldn't expect it to last more than a year or two before they are terrible again. 

[Platoon]

As a mid-market team, we're doomed, and we should just accept our doom.

You forgot to add, "Oh woe is me"

[Monkeypaws]

I don't see the Twins making a signing like Lester. That kind of money is reserved for the biggest markets.

 

The rest of it could certainly be within their grasp.

 

The Orioles might have got Hardy for Hoey, but that shrinks in comparison to giving Arrieta to the Cubs.

[Platoon]

The Twins can move up a couple notches on the ladder simply by putting defensive players in defensive positions. Basically, stop worrying if your catcher or SS hit .245 or .205. Worry more about them generating defensive outs. Then move on to some very difficult roster decisions which will churn the tummies of many on TD. It's not going to be easy, but with a little luck they could look like an actual MLB team by the end of 2017, making it possible to fine tune in 2018.

[jimmer]

 

You forgot to add, "Oh woe is me"

I hold that truth to be self-evident ;-)

[jimmer]

I like how Mark DeRosa is quoting the important stats when comparing players: BA, HR, RBI and doubles ;-)