Article: 40-Man Roster Decisions: The Pitchers

[Seth Stohs]

On Monday the Minnesota Twins announced that five players had been outrighted to AAA Rochester. Tommy Milone has already said he has become a free agent. Andrew Albers and Pat Dean can also become free agents following the completion of the World Series as minor league free agents. The Twins could re-sign them, if they choose to do so.

 

There are a lot decisions the Twins front office needs to make. Many of those decisions will likely wait until after the World Series because that is when Derek Falvey officially takes over as the Twins Chief of Baseball Operations.

 

There are a lot of decisions to be made. Who will take over as the general manager, or could Falvey keep Rob Antony on the job on an interim basis for the time being, or maybe even for the 2017 season? What about other front office personnel? We’re told that the coaching staff is in limbo as we await the arrival of Falvey.

 

But for today, I want to focus on players and the 40-man roster. And after reading today’s article, we are going to want your thoughts and opinions on who should be added.Even with Tommy Milone being outrighted and electing free agency, the Twins have six arbitration-eligible players, including four pitchers. There are other articles on this topic for debate and there will be more in the Twins Daily Offseason Handbook. (Coming soon!).

• Kyle Gibson
• Brandon Kintzler
• Ryan Pressly
• Hector Santiago

Just one player currently on the 40-man roster will automatically become a free agent after the World Series. That player is catcher Kurt Suzuki.

 

There are three players who are currently on the 60-day disabled list: Phil Hughes, Glen Perkins and Danny Santana. These players will need to be added back to the 40-man roster before the Rule 5 draft. So the Twins officially have 35 players on their 40-man roster, but with those three added back, there really are 38 spots accounted for.

 

So I want to look at the current 38 players on the 40-man roster. How many of them are "givens" to remain on the roster? Any of the arbitration-eligibles? Who are the guys on the proverbial roster bubble? For this, we are going to assume no trades for now. It is, of course, possible that the Twins make a trade or two before the Winter Meetings which may affect this as well.

 

THE GIVENS

• Jose Berrios - Despite his struggles, he is a given to remain on the roster. He is a very important fixture in the Twins future.
• JT Chargois - He struggled early in his MLB career. However, he figured things out in September and the hope is that he will be a reliable man at the back-end of the Twins bullpen.
• Tyler Duffey - Again, tough season for the right-hander after he ended 2015 as the Twins best starter. Long-term, can he be a starter, or should he be in the bullpen? That will play itself out, but it’s clear he’s got enough stuff - in the two pitches he has - to at least be a solid reliever.
• Phil Hughes - He’s got the contract. He’s coming off an injury. He is going to remain on the roster.
• Pat Light - The numbers in the big leagues have been really non-good. Despite Trackman verifying that he was hitting 100 in Rochester, we didn’t see that in the big leagues. He was hit hard and struggled with secondary pitches. There’s a reason he was available in a trade for Fernando Abad. But there’s still upside here.
• Trevor May - Starter or bullpen? To be determined, but he’s a given to remain on the roster. Has really good stuff. Can be a dominant reliever, or a mid-rotation starter. We’ll see which.
• Adalberto Mejia - Acquired in July for Eduardo Nunez, Mejia was in Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects at mid-season. The left-hander made one appearance with the Twins in August before being shut down. He has a chance to be a solid mid-rotation starter.
• Mason Melotakis - He is essentially one year behind JT Chargois in terms of recovery and return from Tommy John surgery. He got through his first year back, and should be used and developed in 2017 similarly to Chargois was in 2016. Too talented.
• Glen Perkins - He’s untradeable due to recovery from shoulder injury. He has a contract. If healthy, he can be a terrific reliever in the late innings for the Twins, even if he’s 90% of what he was during his three straight All-Star seasons.
• Taylor Rogers - He was an easy choice to add to the 40-man roster last year at the time, and he proved the Twins correct by having a very nice rookie season in 2016. It was his first work out of the bullpen, so there’s a good chance he could continue to improve in the role going forward.
• Ervin Santana - He was the Twins pitcher of the year in 2016, and it was an easy choice. Could he be traded this offseason? Sure.

There are eleven pitchers who are "givens" to be on the Twins 40-man roster. In addition, of the arbitration-eligible pitchers, it is my opinion that Kyle Gibson, Ryan Pressly and Brandon Kintzler are givens to be offered arbitration. I’d probably put Hector Santiago as more of a 50/50 selection.

 

Here are the pitchers remaining on the 40-man roster who remain question marks for the roster at this point. Remember, room still needs to be made on the roster for players who need to be added to the 40-man roster or potentially lost to the Rule 5 draft. Of the below names, the front office will need to determine if they prefer to keep the current guy or go with a potential Rule 5 selection. There are a lot of difficult decisions.

 

ON THE BUBBLE

• Buddy Boshers - A nice story in 2016, he pitched well in AAA and - with the exception of just a couple of appearances - in the big leagues. Left-handed. His improved breaking pitches have to be evaluated to determine if he’s worth a roster spot.
• Ryan O’Rourke - See Boshers, Buddy. O’Rourke made a concerted effort to improve his numbers against right-handed hitters to make himself more valuable on a roster. However, he was removed from the 40-man roster early in the season, but he did well in AAA and earned his way back on the roster.
• Randy Rosario - Another left-hander. He has a chance to start, which is what he did the first three-plus months of the season in Ft. Myers. He moved to the bullpen, and that’s where he is pitching in the Arizona Fall League. 2016 was his first full season back from Tommy John. He’s got terrific stuff and potential, but lack of strikeouts make him a question mark.
• Yorman Landa - In the Florida State League All-Star game, he threw several pitches over 100 mph, and that’s what he can do. However, he didn’t pitch after mid-July because of a shoulder injury, an injury he has missed significant time with before.
• Michael Tonkin - Simply put, his AAA dominance has not translated to the big leagues in his four years of opportunities. There are certainly times that he showed his upside, but for the most part he really struggled.
• Alex Wimmers - Former first-round pick who earned an opportunity to pitch in the big leagues the final six weeks of the season. Aside from two consecutive appearances in which he walked a combined six batters, he was very good. But what will the new regime think?

POTENTIAL 40-MAN ROSTER ADDS

 

Real quickly, here is an incomplete list of pitchers who would need to be added to the Twins 40-man roster or risk being lost in the Rule 5 draft (with my thoughts on likelihood of them being added):

• Fernando Romero - GIVEN
• Felix Jorge - HIGHLY LIKELY
• DJ Baxendale - BUBBLE
• Lewis Thorpe - BUBBLE
• Jason Wheeler - BUBBLE
• Zack Jones - BUBBLE
• Ryan Eades - UNLIKELY
• Williams Ramirez - UNLIKELY

So there you have it, a crib sheet review of the pitchers on the Minnesota Twins current 40 (or 38?)-man roster. As I see it, there are 11 easy choices to keep on the roster. There are four pitchers who are arbitration-eligible. In my opinion, three of them are givens. There are six pitchers that I believe are on the 40-man roster bubble. And there are several pitchers who need to be considered for addition to the 40-man roster.

 

Tomorrow, I'll do the same thing with the 16 hitters currently on the Twins 40-man roster. For now, discuss your thoughts on the above as well as what you would do. Or, if you prefer, if you were asked to provide Derek Falvey with your roster recommendations, what would you present?

 

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[Cory Engelhardt]

I would argue Rosario over Pat Light, but that's just me

[roger]

How many pitchers do you think the Twins will have on the 40-man roster, Seth?

[beckmt]

I would add Thorpe and Jones.  Tonkin would be a goner and would look to trade or possibly non-tender Gibson as his spot is needed for new pitching talent.  Don't know if we need both Boshers and O'Rourke.  I would keep Wimmers for the time being as the long man in the bullpen.  Given you add Romero and Jorge maybe you take the risk of losing Rosario(this is close).  Landa could be a health issue, but that would make him easier to stash on a major league roster.  

Lots of tough decisions, that will make this forum fun for the next month or two.  I could see the Twins losing several prospects in the rule 5, so maybe you cut a few more close players and keep some of the more talented further away ones.

[beckmt]

Santigo looks like he could be a #3 starter, so I would keep him.  Remember he will have good starts and bad starts, but this year he had more good than bad.

[Thrylos]

My thoughts on Twins' 40 man additions are here.

 

As far as pitchers go, for a rebuilding team keeping Kintzler makes no sense.  It is the opportunity cost.  The Twins can find a replacement level pitcher like him, and likely they have him already (albeit 5-6 years younger in their minors.)   So I would give AJ Baxendale & Zach Jones a chance over Kintzler for sure.  I think that the Twins should look hard at Perkins.  Does it look like he is going to return to his 2013 level this season?  If not, they should cut the cord right now and DFA him.  A rebuilding team does not need him to block other players that need to have a look, and a contending team cannot afford the 2015 Perkins (who single-handedly trashed the post-season hopes of the team.)  If Perkins were from Oklahoma, instead of Minnesota, he would have been Blackburned.

 

Pressly and Light are in the bubble for me.  As are the non-mentioned Slegers (as a reliever) and Brandon Peterson.

 

I do like to see what Jason Wheeler would do (and the fact that Antony preferred and promoted Albers over him last season, should be the final nail in his coffin.)

 

No way I would protect Thorpe:  He has not pitched for 2 years, last pitched at Cedar Rapids and was mediocre (4.24 FIP, 1.37 WHIP).  Nobody will take a chance on him.

 

Boshers, O'Rourke, Wimmers, Tonkin should not even be mentioned.  Lucky that they did not go with the other cuts, but I guess they did not need the room yet.

 

Gibson, Santana, Santiago are tradeable and should be traded esp. since this years FA class is so bad, someone will spend a ton of $ to pick up a pitcher who put Milone-like numbers in Korea.

 

edit:  Another name that is worth mentioning is Alan Busenitz.  Antony traded Alex Meyer for him, so they might add him for political reasons, if Antony has a job in the organization when the World Series is over.

Edited October 20, 2016 by Thrylos

[Shane Wahl]

Tonkin and Wimmers are easy choices, and flip a coin between Boshers and O'Rourke. Also, in no way would I waste any time with Kintzler. That is a disaster waiting to happen and there are going to be a lot of internal options in the minors to sort through this year. Romero, Jorge, Baxendale, and Wheeler or Jones could be added here.

[beckmt]

Do not disagree that trading a starter from this club for a good return.  Would just prefer it to be Gibson.  Santana should bring a good haul as he is a good if not better than the top of the FA market.  Just would depend on what clubs were wanting to give in return.  All returns should be in the form of upside pitching prospects.  

Look at Cleveland.  Whether they win or not they have gotten there with pitching.

[clutterheart]

 

think that the Twins should look hard at Perkins.  Does it look like he is going to return to his 2013 level this season?  If not, they should cut the cord right now and DFA him.

 

Can an injured player stay on the 60 day list during the offseason?

[clutterheart]

Romero &  Jorge - Yes

Take Off:

Light

Kintzler

Pressly

 

[Vanimal46]

The 11 names on the given list work for me. 

From the bubble list, if they let all 6 go I wouldn't care all that much. If they want to keep a couple I'd flip a coin between Buddy and O'Rourke, and keep Wimmers.

Add Romero and Jorge. If another team selects the others, good luck to them with their new team.  

[wsnydes]

I think I'm less concerned with actual names as much as I am direction of the team.  I'd prefer to remove guys like Kinzler and Boshers from the 40 man in order to protect younger guys that will help in the future.  I think holding onto older players at the risk of losing younger, promising players is a mistake and something I'd be concerned about.

[Steve Lein]

Of the bubble guys I'd only keep Tonkin and Wimmers on.

 

Romero I would add. I wouldn't feel all that bad if Jorge was lost by not protecting him. 

 

Think Light and Kintzler could be left off as well. Kintzler likely won't be though, unless Falvey just blows it all up saying you guys have been doing this wrong for so long (which I hope he does in some way).

 

The thing about bad teams, is that means there are bad players that can be replaced pretty easily. Kintzler was exactly that type of addition last year.

 

I wouldn't just keep someone on at this point because they were there last year and performed okay. The Twins need to reach higher.

[Seth Stohs]

 

How many pitchers do you think the Twins will have on the 40-man roster, Seth?

 

Without looking, I would think most teams would have 19-22 pitchers on their 40-man rosters.

[Seth Stohs]

 

 

Lots of tough decisions, that will make this forum fun for the next month or two.  I could see the Twins losing several prospects in the rule 5, so maybe you cut a few more close players and keep some of the more talented further away ones.

 

It's a fine line because players added to the 40-man roster in November can't come off the 40-man roster until around spring training. That's why you don't see many teams filling out their roster but also keep some question marks on there too. If they sign a free agent, those players can come off the 40-man roster then.

[HitInAPinch]

Overall, I think the Twins [and Twins fans] need to get over this 100 mph thing.  Occasionally throwing 100?  Yeah, OK.  But there's a lot more to pitching than just that. 

 

Bosher, Kintzler, etc. are band-aids.  I'm not 100% all-in on 'tearing off the band-aids', but I'm also not on the side of holding back a MiLB'er if they have a great showing in spring training. 

 

In the end, it will be waiting on the Indians playoff run to end and hear and see what new PoBO Falvey has in mind and the marching orders he gives to Antony.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Santigo looks like he could be a #3 starter, so I would keep him.  Remember he will have good starts and bad starts, but this year he had more good than bad.

 

I would (personally) probably tender him a contract. The Twins need all the pitching they can get. Santiago's a back-end of the rotation guy but it's not like the Twins have had a ton of great options in recent years. As we've seen, the young guys come up and sometimes need to go back and forth a few times, and in a (probable) losing season in 2017, I'd rather have Santiago take his lumps than someone like Gonsalves get pushed up too fast and possibly mess up his long-term development. 

 

But who knows who Falvey would bring in to establish his starting five. No one is sure what to expect at this point. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Can an injured player stay on the 60 day list during the offseason?

 

They have to be added back to the 40-man roster sometime before the Rule 5 draft (late November, or there may be an earlier date for that). But yes, they have to be added back.

[old nurse]

Pitching for a bad team does not help determine if a relief pitcher can hold a lead. For a career on poor teams Kintler has not blown leads at a rate any worse than the better relief pitchers do in terms of blown saves to holds and saves. It is not pretty, he is not lights out, but effective.  Ryan O"Rourke has pitched in 54 games in the majors. He has neither a save, hol, or a win. Low leverage pitching .  I don't think he or Boshers would get claimed.   If they did, there would likely be some else similar available.

[Thrylos]

 

Can an injured player stay on the 60 day list during the offseason?

 

Has to be taken off the DL as soon as the WS ends...  So either 40-man or DFA

[Mr. Brooks]

I don't understand how Light is a lock.

For me he wouldn't even be a bubble guy.

This isn't a mph competition, it's pitching.

Light has the upside of Jim Hoey.

[Loosey]

 

Has to be taken off the DL as soon as the WS ends...  So either 40-man or DFA

So in theory could the Twins DFA Hughes?  If someone else picks him up great for the Twins and him.  But if he passes through waivers they go to AAA.  Hughes could then be added back in Spring Training after they move guys around.  Basically it's more of a clerical DFA?  No one will pick him up, at his contract and injury.

[beckmt]

 

So in theory could the Twins DFA Hughes?  If someone else picks him up great for the Twins and him.  But if he passes through waivers they go to AAA.  Hughes could then be added back in Spring Training after they move guys around.  Basically it's more of a clerical DFA?  No one will pick him up, at his contract and injury.

I believe Hughes could elect free agency given his major league service time.  He would be signed to a contract by another club after he clears waviers.  It would only cost a couple of million, plus the Twins would have to pay his full salary.  Non starter at this point.

[nicksaviking]

 

They have to be added back to the 40-man roster sometime before the Rule 5 draft (late November, or there may be an earlier date for that). But yes, they have to be added back.

 

I would assume they would not if they are issued their out right release or reassigned. I could see some merit in DFA'ing Santana.

 

Also, if the labrum surgery that Perkins had truly has a success rate of around 10%, I don't see why he doesn't get released. Is he really going to pitch in 2017 and if he does, what are the odds that he would even be league average? His 2018 buyout is only 700K. If he isn't likely to come back before the AS break, I don't see much reason keeping a roster spot for him based on the extreme long-shot odds that he can be just OK for the back half of 2017.

 

The Perkins stuff is only based on the bleak outlook elsewhere discussed about his injury. If it's more like a 50/50 recovery and we know he'll be back in 2017, then sure, keep him.

[Mike Sixel]

What I would do:

Locks to keep:
Jose Berrios -
JT Chargois
Tyler Duffey –
Phil Hughes –
Trevor May
Adalberto Mejia
Mason Melotakis –
Taylor Rogers
Kyle Gibson (trade value is too low, new approach might work)
Fernando Romero

 

 

Trade bait, though it has to be a great offer:
Ervin Santana –

 

 

Probably keep:
Michael Tonkin—put him in short relief, give him a shot for bleep sake

 

 

No need to keep, won’t lose sleep if they are gone:
Pat Light
Buddy Boshers
Ryan O’Rourke
Randy Rosario
Yorman Landa
Alex Wimmers
Felix Jorge –
DJ Baxendale –
Lewis Thorpe
Jason Wheeler
Zack Jones
Ryan Eades
Williams Ramirez

 

No idea what to do:
Glen Perkins – I can’t count on him at all to be healthy. He hasn’t been for three years. I offer some kind of buyout, and tell him to retire and be healthier in the long run.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Pitching for a bad team does not help determine if a relief pitcher can hold a lead. For a career on poor teams Kintler has not blown leads at a rate any worse than the better relief pitchers do in terms of blown saves to holds and saves. It is not pretty, he is not lights out, but effective.  Ryan O"Rourke has pitched in 54 games in the majors. He has neither a save, hol, or a win. Low leverage pitching .  I don't think he or Boshers would get claimed.   If they did, there would likely be some else similar available.

 

Kintzler's a given. As much as we want to see certain guys, sometimes it's best for their development ot get some AAA time and sometimes more AAA time. They're all different.

 

Hildenberger, Reed, Burdi... we like to think they're all close, and they may be, but Reed has a month in AAA... Burdi missed nearly the full season, and Hildenberger missed hte last month with an elbow problem. It's good to have guys.

 

No one thinks Kintzler is more than what he is just because he got some saves and did a nice job in the second half, but the stuff, movement, ground balls and the fact that he was healthy mean that he can be a solid reliever for longer. And, at most he'll cost like $2 million. That's nothing. And, it's low enough that if he struggles or if 3-4 of those young guys prove ready, they can let him go. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

I don't understand how Light is a lock.
For me he wouldn't even be a bubble guy.
This isn't a mph competition, it's pitching.
Light has the upside of Jim Hoey.

 

For me, he's got a couple of options left... he's got good, dominating AAA numbers. I'm willing to give him more time... but if he's on a bubble rather than being a given, I'm ok with that.

[Seth Stohs]

 

I believe Hughes could elect free agency given his major league service time.  He would be signed to a contract by another club after he clears waviers.  It would only cost a couple of million, plus the Twins would have to pay his full salary.  Non starter at this point.

 

Yeah, I believe the signing team would only have to pay him the league minimum. The Twins would pay the rest. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

I would assume they would not if they are issued their out right release or reassigned. I could see some merit in DFA'ing Santana.

 

Also, if the labrum surgery that Perkins had truly has a success rate of around 10%, I don't see why he doesn't get released. Is he really going to pitch in 2017 and if he does, what are the odds that he would even be league average? His 2018 buyout is only 700K. If he isn't likely to come back before the AS break, I don't see much reason keeping a roster spot for him based on the extreme long-shot odds that he can be just OK for the back half of 2017.

 

The Perkins stuff is only based on the bleak outlook elsewhere discussed about his injury. If it's more like a 50/50 recovery and we know he'll be back in 2017, then sure, keep him.

 

Regarding Santana... he'd have to be removed from the 60-Day and placed on the 40-man roster... at the point, he absolutely could be DFAd.  Just like anyone else on the 40-man. 

 

Regarding Perkins... I'm certainly willing to let him go through rehab and see where he's at. 

[nicksaviking]

 

Regarding Santana... he'd have to be removed from the 60-Day and placed on the 40-man roster... at the point, he absolutely could be DFAd.  Just like anyone else on the 40-man. 

 

Regarding Perkins... I'm certainly willing to let him go through rehab and see where he's at. 

 

I guess I'd like to know when rehab is. The guys with season ending injuries where they are initially penciled in to be ready in the spring have lately tended to end up not being ready until late the next season, if at all.** If he's supposed to be start throwing again in January, great, if it's June, I don't see the point in holding a spot for him. It's not like the Twins can't re-sign him in 2018 should they so choose.

 

**Which is good, get healthy, don't wreck your future to get back early.