Article: Ninth Wonder: What To Do At Closer?

[Taildragger8791]

I don't really understand the aversion to spending the Pohlad's money. I don't think their budget is strained, and there won't be any new money spent on SP or the lineup this next year. So who cares about a few extra bucks spent on the bullpen?

[Rosterman]

We have to wait to see the direction the new front office will be going. Otherwise, as it MAY be a total rebuilding team, closer by committee is the answer. You either have to look at someone being the closer of the future or not at this point.

 

Perk can still close. Kintzler can close (both should be 8th inning set-up guys at first). But closers tend to be made, rather than come up thru a system.

 

Sadly, our closer of the future might just be...dare I say...Jose Berrios!

 

Look at the record of similar guys!

 

Right now, the Twins NEED to see what they have developing in folks like Zack Jones, Nick Burdi, Jake Reed, Tom Hildenberger and others. they NEED A PLAN. They will need to establish roles for guys over the next 3-5 seasons if they build from within AND THEN supplement any weaknesses with outside help.

 

But until the team is winning and a bonafide closer needs to pitch, say, two out of three days somewhat consistently (like winning streaks), you can try to mix and match a little.

[Mike Sixel]

 

 

I don't really understand the aversion to spending the Pohlad's money. I don't think their budget is strained, and there won't be any new money spent on SP or the lineup this next year. So who cares about a few extra bucks spent on the bullpen?

 

 

I think the aversion is to spending money on long term deals, when you are this far from competing, and when you have about 10 legit RP prospects in AA and AAA and maybe even A ball that could pitch here next year...

[Teflon]

Based on the limited exposure during a save opportunity, any decent pitcher can convert them at nearly the same success rate as a high-paid closer - it is one of the most over-valued positions in baseball. The Twins realized this years ago when they converted guys like Guardado, Nathan, and Perkins - who were not closers - into very serviceable back-end guys. DO NOT spend money on a closer. Spend it in general on good middle relief and find a decent option from that group.

[Dantes929]

Seems like Kinzler is the guy you want to come in when there are guys on 1st and 2nd with less than two out.   His sinker gets double plays and he has good control.    I am not saying it would have turned their season around but Perkins and Jepsen blew at least 5 save chances before the Twins even won 10 games so I am guessing the negative psychological effects and the actual 5 blown saves and no good outings from two guys that were expected to be good was significant.    Sorry for the run on sentence.  

Considering I was relying on Perkins, Jepsen and May to be good and they were essentially horrible and then non factors I thought the pen was decent once they were gone.   Not good but better than I expected from filler roles.

May should be a starter.   He is a decent reliever but has no dominant pitches.   HIs good mix of fastball, changeup, curve ball and great control speaks toward efficient innings eater.    

[Taildragger8791]

 

I think the aversion is to spending money on long term deals, when you are this far from competing, and when you have about 10 legit RP prospects in AA and AAA and maybe even A ball that could pitch here next year...

 

I'd agree with that, but I don't think hardly anyone is seriously advocating for a long-term big money FA for the bullpen. Nick's suggestions, and most of those I've seen in this thread, were talking about buy-low 1- or 2-year deals on bounce-back veterans. With the additional consideration that said veteran could be flipped for trade value if they reestablish themselves. Any thoughts of getting a Jansen/Chapman type sounded pretty tongue-in-cheek to me.

[DocBauer]

Couldn't disagree more. Rigid roles is a thing of the past, imo.

 

Also, no reason some of those last few names can't start in MN, imo. What more can they do in the minors at this point?

When I talk about roles, I don'the say they have to be "rigid" necessarily, other than a closer closing. But Tonkin, as an example, seemed to be used very much out of his element as a mid/long reliever often. We've seen O'Rourke be used oddly before as well. I think relievers work better when used to their strength, and with an idea when and how they will usually be used.

 

I also see no reason why some of the other names I listed couldn't begin the year with the Twins. My initial list is just that, initial, and how ST probably opens. I would absolutely audition all of the names I mentioned and go with the best options. KY point is a starting place and go from there. If one or more of the kids is ready, so much the better. But whether they are are aren't with the Twins when camp breaks, you have a well-staffed bullpen in Rochester to draw from, audition from, etc.

[Mike Sixel]

I agree Tonkin was used out of his natural role. Misunderstood. 

[DocBauer]

But what good does a bullpen do for a bottom feeder team? Kenley Jansen would hardly ever pitch for this team as they never have the lead late in games, it seems like a major waste of resources.

You have a point Nick, but I want my re-building team to improve, preferably with a continuation of young talent joining them. But one way for the team to improve is the bullpen, which blew WAY too many leads this year. And when my young, re-building team has a lead,mid like them to keep it. I want them to win together and experience success where they can. I would be greatly adverse to the Twins going out and buying a new bullpenumber. But I love a short term, bounce-back, near the end of his career 1-2 year guy to help set the pen up for success, (with the idea how could possibly be flipped or extended depending).

 

To me, signing a closer would be akin to acquiring a veteran SS to compete with Escobar and help solidify the infield for a season or two while guys like Gordon advance and develop and prepare for 2018. The team, hopefully, performs better, wins more, the kids win together, and no-one is blocked long term.

[dxpavelka]

If May is not in the rotation he's your closer.  And somebody should be fired.

[Thrylos]

It would make no sense for a rebuilding team to go out an waste money on a free agent closer, unless for some reason they are competitive come July and they have issues in the closer position. (*)

 

Re: experience.  It is a catch-22.  If you are not going to close, you will not get experience.  So it is time that the Twins allow the younger players who are coming to their primes, experience in the position:

 

They should let, Chargois, Duffey, Burdi, Jones battle it out at Spring Training.

Tonkin was never any good and he is not getting any better.  He is at the AAAA Casey Fien level.  Got to go.

 

(*) The Twins are stuck with Hughes contract, and this is a biggr issue than Perkins'.  Depending on how he returns from surgery, I always thought that he would make a better closer than a starter, plus he has experience (with great results) setting up Rivera.  Only if they cannot trade him and/or are competing.

Edited October 17, 2016 by Thrylos

[Taildragger8791]

 

It would make no sense for a rebuilding team to go out an waste money on a free agent closer, unless for some reason they are competitive come July and they have issues in the closer position. (*)

 

 

Acquiring a closer in mid-season is way more difficult and expensive, and leaves winnable games on the table that can make or break your season. Similar to what happened in 2015 when we went into the year with a shoddy bullpen, tried to patch it up mid-year, and missed a playoff spot by a few games as a result.

 

I don't expect that to happen next year considering how abominable and unsalvageable our rotation is, but the scenario you described is a too-little too-late approach. It's not prohibitively expensive to get a one or two year deal on a bounce-back candidate free agent, and there's room in the bullpen to add a piece. Why not cover your bases and give yourself a chance? There will still be plenty of opportunities to break in young pitchers without over-relying on them to be ready. Then, if we have another 102-loss team on our hands you can hopefully trade that veteran for something if they managed to establish some value.

[Vanimal46]

I'd be curious to know if Holland, Storen, or Feliz would demand to be the closer in their FA negotiations. Or if they'd be open to pitching in any high leverage inning, whether that be the 6th, 7th, or 8th inning. 

If they do turn out to pitch in the 9th and get the save, great! Like Mike and others on the thread, I'm believing more and more that etched in stone roles in the bullpen should be a thing of the past. Maybe the turning point in the game happens in the 7th inning. Maybe it's the 8th inning the next day. I'd like to have the best pitcher out there when the game is on the line, no matter the inning. 

Hopefully Cleveland is proving that traditional bullpen roles are a thing of the past with how they're using Andrew Miller this postseason. 

[TheLeviathan]

 

It would make no sense for a rebuilding team to go out an waste money on a free agent closer, unless for some reason they are competitive come July and they have issues in the closer position. (*)

 

Re: experience.  It is a catch-22.  If you are not going to close, you will not get experience.  So it is time that the Twins allow the younger players who are coming to their primes, experience in the position:

 

They should let, Chargois, Duffey, Burdi, Jones battle it out at Spring Training.

Tonkin was never any good and he is not getting any better.  He is at the AAAA Casey Fien level.  Got to go.

 

You can do both.  We have money to use and we need more talent.  Investing money and innings into a guy that wants to prove he can close is a low risk, high reward proposition.  You invest those innings and dollars, reap the rewards in July, and then give the last two months of the season to the young guy who has pitched the best so far in the season as the closer.  

 

Good rebuilding teams look for ways to use open roles they have to create more value than they invest.

[mlhouse]

"But this feels like skipping a step. Chargois still only has 25 major-league appearances. Throwing him into the fire so quickly could prove detrimental. Why not take it a bit slower and let him work his way up?"

 

Because they could have done that ALL SEASON in 2016, but decided they preferred mediocrity over the unknown. 

I am sure that wiull be the plan for 2017.  Use Chargois in a set up role and Kintzler as the closer.  Of course, what value using a 33 year old closer will have over the future is debatable and you really cannot tell how a guy is going to hadle the closer role until, well, you make him the closer.  Everything else is just simulation to a degree.

 

One of the problems with the Twins is that they seem to pretend that some of these guys are 19 year olds.  JT CHargois will be 26 years old before the start of the 2017 season.  How much more "seasoning" does he need before he is going to contribute?  I realize that injuries have delayed his progression through the minors, but there comes a time thta a "prospect" needs to either sink or swim.  

[wavedog]

An argument for signing a free agent or 2 would be what  the Yankees did this past season.   Relief Pitching is always in high demand at the trade deadline.  The Yanks were able to trade Miller and Chapman for multiple prospects (granted those were 2 studs).  Say we signed Feliz and/or Holland this year and they built up some "save" value.    if we are out of the race come the end of July and we have built up some of our young relief pitchers - Feliz or Holland could be flipped for a good return - obviously less value than Miller and Chapman would get but still good.   They would serve as an insurance policy and buffer so the young guys can build up their confidence in less stressful pitching situations.    

[Mike Sixel]

Well, I've been all in on 1 year deals for pitchers for about 4 years now.....so I guess I should endorse signing at least 1.

[DocBauer]

You can do both.  We have money to use and we need more talent.  Investing money and innings into a guy that wants to prove he can close is a low risk, high reward proposition.  You invest those innings and dollars, reap the rewards in July, and then give the last two months of the season to the young guy who has pitched the best so far in the season as the closer.  

 

Good rebuilding teams look for ways to use open roles they have to create more value than they invest.

EXACTLY what I'm saying. There is, to me, a difference between rebuilding a team...which they ARE doing and began with better earnest last season...and just tossing nothing but prospects in to each and every role with a sink or swim attitude. To me, if my young team has a chance to win a game, I want them to feel they can win the game. Let someone come in, be that closer, let someone else slide in to that role here and there, rotate all these prospects in and out, off and on the roster, if someone underperforms or gets hurt, and you probably have another trade chip mid season. And what happens if the guy they would sign is less than 30 and performs well? You could decide to keep him, potentially, and he could, potentially, still be a part of the next winning team.

 

Best of all world's here.

[Loosey]

 

I'd be curious to know if Holland, Storen, or Feliz would demand to be the closer in their FA negotiations. Or if they'd be open to pitching in any high leverage inning, whether that be the 6th, 7th, or 8th inning. 

If they do turn out to pitch in the 9th and get the save, great! Like Mike and others on the thread, I'm believing more and more that etched in stone roles in the bullpen should be a thing of the past. Maybe the turning point in the game happens in the 7th inning. Maybe it's the 8th inning the next day. I'd like to have the best pitcher out there when the game is on the line, no matter the inning. 

Hopefully Cleveland is proving that traditional bullpen roles are a thing of the past with how they're using Andrew Miller this postseason. 

The "Save" stat is about as useless the "Win" stat in my opinion.  Let say it's a tie game with runners on 2nd and 3rd with one out in the 7th or 8th inning.  You bring in a reliever who strikes out the first guy and then induces a lazy grounder on the next.  Now you're out of the jam.  If your team scores 3 runs in the 8th to take a 3 run lead, your "closer" gets to come in in the 9th inning and get save if he gives up less than 3 runs.  I think the 7th inning guy was more important in that scenario.

 

But Saves are sexy to some I guess.

[darin617]

How about not worrying about the 9th inning and focus on innings 1-7. Having a shut down closer like Chapman is a waste if you cannot get him the ball with the lead. I am aware the market is thin for starters this year but please set it up where the Twins could be better in 2-3 years.

[Mike Sixel]

 

How about not worrying about the 9th inning and focus on innings 1-7. Having a shut down closer like Chapman is a waste if you cannot get him the ball with the lead. I am aware the market is thin for starters this year but please set it up where the Twins could be better in 2-3 years.

 

i hope they do more than 1 thing to make the team better.....do you not think they can do more than 1 thing?

[Nick Nelson]

 

How about not worrying about the 9th inning and focus on innings 1-7. Having a shut down closer like Chapman is a waste if you cannot get him the ball with the lead. I am aware the market is thin for starters this year but please set it up where the Twins could be better in 2-3 years.

Obviously, building leads to protect is the foremost concern for this club, as acknowledged in the first sentence of the post. But that doesn't mean they should be "not worrying" about other blatant holes on the roster. 

[Kwak]

Use "bullpen by committee" strategy. That opens the door for competition between pitchers by providing opportunities for to display who can succeed in key situations. There is no need to rush a decision defining roles for pitchers who have yet to prove they are worthy of a permanent role on a major league team.

[darin617]

I could only see signing a decent new if he is not getting much interest in the market and then of course flip in July for prospects. Kind of like Atlanta has done lately.

[snepp]

 

True, his performance this year was essentially the same as what he did 2012-2014 with the Brewers. I guess the point is more that I don't trust someone as hittable as him in that kind of role, and don't think having him there is useful in terms of big-picture evaluations. I'm certainly fine with bringing him back as a middle relief guy. 

 

I completely agree. I don't want to see him at the back end of the bullpen routinely getting called on in high leverage spots. As a $2 million dollar middle reliever that can (likely) provide a bunch of reliable innings, he'd be just fine, and cheap enough to jettison if/when a better option comes along.

[Brandon Warne]

Pressly

[h2oface]

Twins' fans have forgotten how to aim high. Trained themselves. Convinced themselves. Yuk. And not the funny yuk.

 

Why folks think May will excell anywhere baffles me. Tonkin too. Some seem to think we are forever trapped and can't escape them, so they keep talking themselves into hoping. The staff needs replaced! Not retreaded. I like Hughes to the pen, though. Always have - especially to start each and every season. Aim high, Mr Falvey.

[Riverbrian]

Flood it

 

Bring them in by the bunches and compete for the position. 2nd and 3rd place can set up. We don't just need a closer. We need a complete rebuild.

[SadMinnySportsFan]

Good read. I think all these options are plausible. Regarding the FA's Feliz would be a great stop gap closer with some upside, I think JT is destined for the job but agree might be much to hand it too him out of spring training. Id also be fine with Tonkin, assuming he pitches well in Spring Training. He dominated AAA as a closer and think he was severely mismanaged being the "long relief" guy pitching 2-3 innings clearly burned him out towards the end of the season. Kitzler should not be the closer, he did an ok job filling in and I'm ok bringing him back as a middle reliever but he's a sinker baller who does not strike many people out, we're seeing in the post season elite relievers with strikeout abilities are critical to success.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Good read. I think all these options are plausible. Regarding the FA's Feliz would be a great stop gap closer with some upside, I think JT is destined for the job but agree might be much to hand it too him out of spring training. Id also be fine with Tonkin, assuming he pitches well in Spring Training. He dominated AAA as a closer and think he was severely mismanaged being the "long relief" guy pitching 2-3 innings clearly burned him out towards the end of the season. Kitzler should not be the closer, he did an ok job filling in and I'm ok bringing him back as a middle reliever but he's a sinker baller who does not strike many people out, we're seeing in the post season elite relievers with strikeout abilities are critical to success.

 

Welcome to the site. Nice first post.