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Article: Ninth Wonder: What To Do At Closer?


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When you're coming off a 100-loss season, the foremost concern is, flatly, finding ways to get more victories, as opposed to identifying someone who can close them out.

 

Still, the Twins need to figure out what they're going to do about the ninth inning in 2017.They have a three-time All-Star closer on their staff, but unfortunately they can't count on him. Glen Perkins is coming back from a daunting surgery to reattach his shoulder labrum, and if he returns anywhere close to his previous level of effectiveness, he'll be beating the odds.

 

In the latest update on the 33-year-old's recovery via Mike Beradino of the Pioneer Press, the only word was that Perkins is "making progress" several months after his operation. It still doesn't sound like he's throwing. Paul Molitor was measured in his assessment:

 

“We all know the odds and the numbers on those surgeries for people, and we’re just hoping for the best,” Molitor said. “I think they’ve been relatively pleased with the recovery from the surgery and the injury.”

Of course, "hoping for the best" is not where you want to be with the most traditionally important spot in the bullpen. The Twins need contingencies. In fact, they need more than that. Even if his rehab goes smoothly and he looks strong and healthy heading into spring training, the Twins should have someone else lined up for the ninth so that they can ease him back in. Evaluate Perk's post-surgery effectiveness during the early months, and assign him accordingly.

 

(I will add here that even if Perkins is somehow able to return to his peak dominance, I still would prefer not to return him to the closer role, in a strict sense. This postseason has only reinforced the way such a limiting usage pattern provides a competitive disadvantage. The Orioles fell out early because they were too fixated on using Zach Britton in a save opportunity. Meanwhile, the Indians have thrived while utilizing Andrew Miller as a true flexible bullpen ace.)

 

Even with my stated feelings on the above, I can't deny the importance of having a closer in place. And without question, the Twins also recognize it. They may evolve under new leadership in the front office, but they're not going to suddenly become a team that eschews the mainstream and puts no effort into designating a reliable and experienced ninth-inning guy.

 

Perhaps that guy is already on the roster. The first big test – and barometer – for Derek Falvey and his new general manager will be an earnest evaluation of Brandon Kintzler. The veteran right-hander was a classic Terry Ryan relief reclamation story, turning from minor league free agent signing into bullpen staple.

 

Kintzler was more than adequate while filling in as closer in the second half. He threw strikes, induced lots of grounders and kept the ball in the yard. In all, he converted 17 of 20 save chances, and that sounds just fine.

 

But let's not forget that Kintzler was replacing Kevin Jepsen, whom the Twins had no choice but to drop after he performed dreadfully for three months. They made the mistake of putting too much faith in Jepsen based on his short run of success in the previous second half. Are they going to do the same with Kintzler, who was considerably less impressive?

 

This is a good opportunity for the restructured front office to differentiate itself by being proactive rather than reactive. Head into next season with a plan that offers concrete long-term upside. There are plenty of ways to do so.

 

One way would be installing J.T. Chargois in the role. He was a closer in college, and in the minors. After shaking off some initial rookie struggles, he looked the part of a shutdown late-inning arm down the stretch with Minnesota. At this point in time, he undoubtedly profiles as the heir apparent behind Perkins.

 

But this feels like skipping a step. Chargois still only has 25 major-league appearances. Throwing him into the fire so quickly could prove detrimental. Why not take it a bit slower and let him work his way up? This would be a more characteristic Twins approach.

 

Another idea, and one that I don't expect to happen, would be giving Michael Tonkin a shot. He's coming off a rough campaign and is out of options. The Twins need to figure out what they have in him. They may already feel they know, following a 5.02 ERA during his first full year in an MLB bullpen, but that work came in an unfamiliar long relief role.

 

Tonkin was at his best when he was a Triple-A closer. Why not give him the reins – even with a short leash – then see how his body and confidence respond?

 

Look, I know many are unimpressed with what they've seen from Tonkin. But his minor-league numbers, and his ability to throw the ball past big-league hitters, are rare finds within a Minnesota bullpen. The team is much better served showing patience with a hurler like him than feeding innings to guys like Kintzler and Jepsen.

 

However, I do understand that players like Chargois and Tonkin fall short in one important category: experience. Neither has any, as a closer, in the major leagues. One might argue this doesn't matter too much given the level of expectation this team will have next year, but if Molitor is focused on winning a whole lot more games, he will probably want an option that makes him a little more comfortable at the end.

 

There is a path to both experience AND long-term upside in the role. It only requires that the Twins take an aggressive tack with some free agents that may carry significant risk.

 

The relief market offers a few excellent buy-low chances, which should particularly appeal to a Minnesota team that can afford to take some gambles.

 

Neftali Feliz is one such candidate. Back in 2010, the righty won Rookie of the Year while saving 40 games for the Rangers, and he added 32 more the following season. Then, Texas tried shifting him to the rotation, and he got hurt and underwent Tommy John surgery. His frequent trips to the disabled list led to a lukewarm free agent market last winter before he signed with Pittsburgh on a one-year, $3.9 million deal.

 

Feliz looked good as a setup man with Pittsburgh. His fastball velocity was as high as it's been since 2011, and he averaged 10.2 K/9 while holding opponents to a .207 average. Still only 28, he presents the rare free agent combination of youth, closing experience, and an extremely high ceiling. The Twins won't be Feliz's – or any coveted player's – first choice with all things being equal, but money talks.

 

If they want to find similar benefits but don't want to spend as much, the Twins could pursue Drew Storen. Unlike Feliz, he's not coming off a strong year, and in fact he's had a rough go of it in general lately. But he is a former 40-save closer who is younger than the typical FA at 29, and for the most part he has been an effective backend bullpen arm in his career. He has the potential to be a closer or a standout setup guy. The Twins could use either.

 

One final free agent name to monitor: Greg Holland. He notched 125 saves with a 1.97 ERA from 2013 through 2015 with the Royals, but sat out the 2016 season following Tommy John surgery. He will be 16 months removed from that operation on Opening Day next year, so he's a relatively safe bet. Holland might be predisposed to return to Kansas City but, again, money talks.

 

Ultimately, the point is that the Twins should be viewing their open closer job as an opportunity rather than a burden. There's no reason to spend big on a premier name like Aroldis Chapman or Kenley Jansen, but there's really no reason to run with someone like Kintzler who will do nothing but keep the seat warm. Aim higher.

 

What would be your preferred blueprint for addressing the ninth inning with Perkins in limbo?

 

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I would sign any of the top 3 or Holland or Feliz who might be cheaper. Twins will not be able to repair the starting rotation in one offseason, so lets build a bullpen from the backend out.

Other choice would be to obtain a closer in waiting plus a starter for Dozier. That may be a too tall order, since I would like a major league ready, young pitcher who has #1 or #2 written all over him.

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I'd be fine with them sticking with Kintzler in the closer role for now. He'll probably regress unless he improves his 5.80 K/9, but he did fine in the role this season (3.15 ERA, 3.61 FIP, 3.48 xFIP). Let him ride as long as he's doing an adequate job, and focus on improving in the setup roles in the meantime. You want your best relievers in more flexible roles, anyway, right?

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Kintzler is fools gold. Be happy you got what you did out of him, but no way he is a closer. 6th and 7th innings... see if he can repeat success. Personally, I doubt it very much. Unlike with Jepsen, do not be fooled!  Tonkin? NOOOOOOOOO. Perkins is cooked. This will not be limbo, it will be the end. Do not expect he will be of any value at all if he can return.

 

Holland? Take a chance. Chargois? Take a chance. I bet Falvey remakes the bullpen. I sure hope so. Other than the young prospects, I don't care if they are all gone. They were so horrible.

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Kintzler is fools gold, Be happy you got what you did out of him, but no way he is a closer. 6th and 7th innings... see if he can repeat success. Personally, I doubt it very much.

 

I don't much care to see Kintzler getting many high leverage innings next year, but I don't see why he couldn't easily repeat what he did this season. His numbers this year were effectively identical to his previous major league numbers.

 

It isn't as though he came out of no where and did something that he's never done before.

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I've been talking about this same idea for weeks now. Even on a young, rebuilding team, there is room for a more veteran presence or two. There is nothing wrong with this rebuilding team holding on to leads and winning games. I'd love to just trust Kintzler and somehow know he'd pitch the same in 2017 but I wouldn't count on it. Further, what would he so wrong with working young guys like Chargois in to the closers role?

 

I would push hard for someone like Perez and move Kintzler. He may offer the Twins help and value, but I believe there is only room/need for the one veteran, at least from the right side. As of now, I'd sign said veteran and look at Chargois and Pressly in the 7th and 8th inning roles, perhaps alternating, and being given 9th inning opportunities as they arise. Tonkin, for now, could be used as a 6th-7th inning guy with Duffey as a long and middle guy.

 

Roger's takes 1 of 2 LH spots. I'm not sure at this time who the other guy is. Do you look for another Abad or sort through the other LH options on hand?

 

Now, this is a bit tentative of a plan as there are several prospects ready or near ready to audition. But it's a place to start, assigns roles to players, and stabilizes the pen even as its being re-tooled.

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Kintzler had a half-dozen games where he was asked to pitch the eighth and come back out for the ninth and broke down.  These games skewed his stats.  I sat through two of these games and it was painful.  He should not be asked to be a multi-inning guy.  I put this on Molitor for mis-managing his bullpen.

 

Having said that, the Twins need both middle / late inning relievers and a solid closer. May should be a starter.  The Twins need to sign one free agent reliever who has potential to be a closer.  They need to groom Chargois (if they know how to do this) for the closer role.  Let Perkins fill a middle relief role along with Tonkin and a few others.  Closer for 2017 should transition from Kintzler to Free Agend to Chargois.  

 

Next year is a transition and set up for 2018,  Hope the Twins are fun to watch in 2017, but they will still have a losing record.

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I like the Holland, Storen, and Feliz names. In that order probably. 

 

Get May in the rotation unless you think his DL time this year was a fluke, and not due to pitching out of the bullpen.

 

If you don't get one of those three above, don't assign a "closer." Let Kintzler, Chargois, Pressly, and Tonkin have shots at it and let the chips fall.

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Kintzler had a half-dozen games where he was asked to pitch the eighth and come back out for the ninth and broke down.  These games skewed his stats.  I sat through two of these games and it was painful.  He should not be asked to be a multi-inning guy.  I put this on Molitor for mis-managing his bullpen.

 

Having said that, the Twins need both middle / late inning relievers and a solid closer. May should be a starter.  The Twins need to sign one free agent reliever who has potential to be a closer.  They need to groom Chargois (if they know how to do this) for the closer role.  Let Perkins fill a middle relief role along with Tonkin and a few others.  Closer for 2017 should transition from Kintzler to Free Agend to Chargois.  

 

Next year is a transition and set up for 2018,  Hope the Twins are fun to watch in 2017, but they will still have a losing record.

Agree.  Kintzler is a 1 inning pitcher.  I think Perkins has the same problem as Kintler.

 

Kintzler is also a sinkerballer.  So a "5.8 K/9 rate" isn't bad, just not what people want to see.  A WHIP of 1.233 is pretty good, even with those 8th inning appearances. 

 

I'm not promoting Kintzler as THE closer.  Chargois improved a lot through the end of the season.  I'd cross my fingers and put him in as A closer, i.e.  Dual Closers. 

 

Tonkin is the one, youngish RP I don't really trust.  I've seen him and a couple other young relievers choke when brought in with runners on.  I guess we should assign that to youth / inexperience.  I'm more for signing a Holland or Feliz to be in a co-closer role.

 

Either way, any way or whatever way,   Twins bullpen for next season is a fun topic!!

 

Thanks, Nick !!

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I don't much care to see Kintzler getting many high leverage innings next year, but I don't see why he couldn't easily repeat what he did this season. His numbers this year were effectively identical to his previous major league numbers.

 

It isn't as though he came out of no where and did something that he's never done before.

True, his performance this year was essentially the same as what he did 2012-2014 with the Brewers. I guess the point is more that I don't trust someone as hittable as him in that kind of role, and don't think having him there is useful in terms of big-picture evaluations. I'm certainly fine with bringing him back as a middle relief guy. 

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As Steve posted above, my priorities this offseason would be the same. Holland is the top target, followed up by Storen or Feliz. 

If none of them are signed, then go with a closer by committee and play the match up. I'd rather have Chargois, Rogers, Tonkin, or whoever come in when it's favorable to do so. This bullpen should be very fluid and not have defined roles at the beginning of the season. 

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I want more young players in the bullpen than mediocre, terrible, or even decent veterans. Seriously, just give the players in the minors a chance, there are plenty of options.

 

If they are going to sign a RP, sign the best one you can afford, not a couple of mediocre ones.

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I'm not against getting some free agent pen help, but I think it should be of the bounce-back variety. I don't see much logic in a 100 loss team spending big money on a closer.

 

My dark horse prediction. Phil Hughes gets the job and runs with it by the end of April if he comes back from his surgery (and maybe he doesn't, I have no clue how long it takes to recover from sawing out a freakin' rib). Prior to his decline, which one would hope was due to the nerve issue, he had decent velocity, which tends to increase in the pen. 

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I'm not against getting some free agent pen help, but I think it should be of the bounce-back variety. I don't see much logic in a 100 loss team spending big money on a closer.

How exactly can this team improve a historically bad pitching staff without spending some money? Considering the SP market is very bad, they could at the very least build up a very bad bullpen....  

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Closer: One of the above FA listed

Setup A: Chargois

Setup B: Pressly

6th-7th: Tonkin

Long-Mid: Duffey (who could still start or fill in)

LH A: Rogers

LH B: TBD (FA, Boshers, O'Rourke, Wheeler, Melotakis, etc)

 

This is how it starts for me initially. You have a closer and everyone else in a role instead of being asked to pitch "out of character". The second LH option is the area I'm unsure about. Even with a strong AFL, I'm prone to Melotakis starting the year at Rochester simply to continue to build up arm strength and additional experience after his strong AA season following surgery. But right now, he hasn't pitched back to back days in over a year.

 

Between being a FA, rule that, etc, some of the options can and will change here, but as of now, you start with the above and audition Light, Wimmers, Baxendale, Jones, Reed and Hildenberger.

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I'm not against getting some free agent pen help, but I think it should be of the bounce-back variety. I don't see much logic in a 100 loss team spending big money on a closer.

 

For July 31st.  That's the reason to do it.

 

Give somebody who has always wanted to close a chance and see if you can't spin that into a windfall at the deadline.

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Closer: One of the above FA listed
Setup A: Chargois
Setup B: Pressly
6th-7th: Tonkin
Long-Mid: Duffey (who could still start or fill in)
LH A: Rogers
LH B: TBD (FA, Boshers, O'Rourke, Wheeler, Melotakis, etc)

This is how it starts for me initially. You have a closer and everyone else in a role instead of being asked to pitch "out of character". The second LH option is the area I'm unsure about. Even with a strong AFL, I'm prone to Melotakis starting the year at Rochester simply to continue to build up arm strength and additional experience after his strong AA season following surgery. But right now, he hasn't pitched back to back days in over a year.

Between being a FA, rule that, etc, some of the options can and will change here, but as of now, you start with the above and audition Light, Wimmers, Baxendale, Jones, Reed and Hildenberger.

 

Couldn't disagree more. Rigid roles is a thing of the past, imo.

 

Also, no reason some of those last few names can't start in MN, imo. What more can they do in the minors at this point?

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For July 31st.  That's the reason to do it.

 

Give somebody who has always wanted to close a chance and see if you can't spin that into a windfall at the deadline.

Exactly. Relievers value the opportunity to compile saves and build up their value. You find a guy like Feliz who probably wouldn't have the opportunity to close elsewhere, and lure him in with money plus the ninth inning job. Then, if he has a big first half, you could either lock him up or deal him to a contender in July for quality prospects. The upside greatly outweighs the downside.

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How exactly can this team improve a historically bad pitching staff without spending some money? Considering the SP market is very bad, they could at the very least build up a very bad bullpen....  

 

But what good does a bullpen do for a bottom feeder team? Kenley Jansen would hardly ever pitch for this team as they never have the lead late in games, it seems like a major waste of resources.

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For July 31st.  That's the reason to do it.

 

Give somebody who has always wanted to close a chance and see if you can't spin that into a windfall at the deadline.

 

 

Exactly. Relievers value the opportunity to compile saves and build up their value. You find a guy like Feliz who probably wouldn't have the opportunity to close elsewhere, and lure him in with money plus the ninth inning job. Then, if he has a big first half, you could either lock him up or deal him to a contender in July for quality prospects. The upside greatly outweighs the downside.

 

These types of guys are fine by me, but is a guy like Feliz going to be getting big money? I guess these were the type of guys I was referencing as bounce-back pick ups.

 

I also like the idea of manufacturing closers and trading them at the deadline, I've been advocating it for years. The Twins could have done it with Perkins for several years and they never bothered to pull the trigger. They also did it with Kintzler last year and never moved him either.

 

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But what good does a bullpen do for a bottom feeder team? Kenley Jansen would hardly ever pitch for this team as they never have the lead late in games, it seems like a major waste of resources.

It worked out pretty well for Kansas City to acquire Wade Davis and James Shields in 2013... Helped them clinch a winning record in over 10 years.

It wasn't just the starting staff that lost 103 games. The bullpen blew plenty of leads last year.  

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But what good does a bullpen do for a bottom feeder team? Kenley Jansen would hardly ever pitch for this team as they never have the lead late in games, it seems like a major waste of resources.

If the Twins had taken a step last year for or even a slight step back from 2015 (not the enormous one) I would be on board with backing a dump truck of money up to a high end reliever like a Chapman or Jansen.  However, the Twins would essentially be wasting money on those two as leads were rare for this team.  As bad as the bullpen was, they didn't even have the chance to blow many leads. They did create bigger deficits to overcome, but that wouldn't be a good use of resources to bring in guys to hold 2 run deficits steady vs. 2 run leads.  

 

But it's not my money.

 

 

 

 

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