Article: What Experts Are Saying About Potential Top Pick Hunter Greene

[DocBauer]

BPA, whoever that turns out to be. Preferably a SP. Whoever they select will almost certainly be 2-3 years away from regular ML duty. Just the nature of the beast, development time on a professional level.

 

While it would be awesome to see the #1 guy be a stud college arm, they still won't help for a year or two and won't solve anything for next season. Go with the top guy, best prospect, highest potential, etc. if it's Greene, so be it.

[h2oface]

No to another high school prospect. No no no. Coupled with having to decide if he is a position player or pitcher, this would spell trouble. 

[beckmt]

Found article quoted from the Pioneer Press about Neil Allen's take. I found it to be interesting. Think it is time to look not only at stuff, but command of that stuff, which the Twins do not seem to be following.

Maybe we find a pitcher that not only has stuff, but some idea how to use it. They will be closer to the major leagues, but not a pitch to contact type.

[Mike Sixel]

 

No to another high school prospect. No no no. Coupled with having to decide if he is a position player or pitcher, this would spell trouble. 

 

There's not deciding....he's a SP. He could play SS, but that's not his path to stardom.

[markos]

Something to think about with regard to high school pitchers: How often does the consensus best high school arm going into the draft actually turn into the best pitcher? For some examples:

 

2007: Best HS arm (according to BA) was Rick Porcello, who was #2 pitcher overall after David Price. 4th best HS pitcher (9th best pitcher overall, and 6th pitcher taken) was Madison Bumgarner.

 

2010: Best HS arm was Jameson Taillon, who was considered neck-and-neck with Manny Machado for #2 prospect behind Bryce Harper. At pick #34 and #38 the Blue Jays draft Aaron Sanchez and Noah Syndergaard.

 

2011: Best HS arm was Dylan Bundy (and best overall pitcher according to BA) in loaded 2011 class. 5th best HS pitcher (12th best pitcher, 20th best overall, 7th pitcher taken overall) was Jose Fernandez.

 

I'm not say that the Twins should avoid Greene at all costs. If it turns out that he is clearly the best player in a lackluster class, then by all means pick him. But if there is serious doubt about the best player, I think the better strategy is to take the position player 1-1 and load up on high-upside arms in the later picks.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Something to think about with regard to high school pitchers: How often does the consensus best high school arm going into the draft actually turn into the best pitcher? For some examples:

 

2007: Best HS arm (according to BA) was Rick Porcello, who was #2 pitcher overall after David Price. 4th best HS pitcher (9th best pitcher overall, and 6th pitcher taken) was Madison Bumgarner.

 

2010: Best HS arm was Jameson Taillon, who was considered neck-and-neck with Manny Machado for #2 prospect behind Bryce Harper. At pick #34 and #38 the Blue Jays draft Aaron Sanchez and Noah Syndergaard.

 

2011: Best HS arm was Dylan Bundy (and best overall pitcher according to BA) in loaded 2011 class. 5th best HS pitcher (12th best pitcher, 20th best overall, 7th pitcher taken overall) was Jose Fernandez.

 

I'm not say that the Twins should avoid Greene at all costs. If it turns out that he is clearly the best player in a lackluster class, then by all means pick him. But if there is serious doubt about the best player, I think the better strategy is to take the position player 1-1 and load up on high-upside arms in the later picks.

 

How do you ever develop pitching, if you pass on it out of fear?

 

Have you looked at success rates of SPs and position players, both? 

 

 

[markos]

 

How do you ever develop pitching, if you pass on it out of fear?

 

Have you looked at success rates of SPs and position players, both? 

As a rebuttal, I might ask you how do you ever create a winning team by trading 3-WAR position players for 2-WAR pitchers.

 

It's not passing out of fear - it's trying to make an informed decision based on the risk/reward of different player profiles. Personally, I think developing pitching is all about casting a broad as net as possible rather than focusing on one or two singular talents. In the case of the top of the draft, I think the evidence shows that there is traditionally much better luck with hitters than pitchers. And selecting a really good position player with the top pick is a great way to free up a lot of resources to focus on pitching via other avenues (other draft picks, trades acquisitions, free agency, international markets). Lots of teams (ex. Cleveland) have put together excellent pitching staffs without using top picks.

 

While there isn't a definitive study that I'm aware of, the general consensus from a wide range of research is that pitchers are riskier and have lower expected value at an equivalent pick/ranking. For example, see 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/tht-live/analyzing-the-mlb-draft-using-war/

http://www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/mlb-prospect-surplus-values-2016-updated-edition/

 

The first article, looking at first round picks, showed that pitchers (college and high school) end up producing roughly 50% less value than position players:

College hitters– 1.336 WAR/year
High School hitters– 1.204 WAR/year
College pitchers– .649 WAR/year
High School pitchers– .878 WAR/year

 

The second article focuses on prospect lists rather than draft picks, but even with the additional year(s) of knowledge of the players' performance in pro-ball, the results show that equivalently ranked pitchers produce less WAR in total and are busts more often.

 

I think there are a lot of limitations with all of the draft analysis over the past few years for a number of reasons, so please don't assume that I'm taking these numbers as gospel truth. But I do think there is enough evidence that SOME discount needs to be applied when trying to calculate the future value of pitchers. The 1-1 pick is super valuable - expected value of 15-20 WAR during pre-free agency seasons - so applying even a small discount (say 20%) to that, and you end up losing 5 WAR by picking a pitcher over an equivalently talented hitter. That's a lot of value - by some measures that's equivalent to a pick in the 10-15 range, or trading a 3-WAR player for a 2-WAR player. But if one thinks that Greene (or any other pitcher) is significantly better than any other position player, then by all means take him.

[laloesch]

 

No to another high school prospect. No no no. Coupled with having to decide if he is a position player or pitcher, this would spell trouble. 

 

I'm weary of another high school pitcher.  Unless he absolutely knocks your socks off and you REALLY think he's the one, I would shy away from using the #1 pick on him.

 

I'd be looking at the best college pitcher available .  If the idea is to try and get better pitchers up here soon and complement the young core before they get to far along (Sano, Buxton, Polanco, Kepler, etc.) we need to draft college level starters that are more refined and could make it in the next two seasons.  

 

A high school pitcher (unless he's an enigma) is going to toil away in the minors for 4 or 5 years at least (realistically) due to age and maturity differences.  

 

That means your #1 draft pick high school starter will like not reach the bigs until 2020 at the earliest.  Too long IMO.  Go with either the best position player available or best college starter available.

Edited October 19, 2016 by laloesch

[laloesch]

 

I'm weary of another high school pitcher.  Unless he absolutely knocks your socks off and you REALLY think he's the one, I would shy away from using the #1 pick on him.

 

I'd be looking at the best college pitcher available .  If the idea is to try and get better pitchers up here soon and complement the young core before they get to far along (Sano, Buxton, Polanco, Kepler, etc.) we need to draft college level starters that are more refined and could make it in the next two seasons.  

 

A high school pitcher (unless he's an enigma) is going to toil away in the minors for 4 or 5 years at least (realistically) due to age and maturity differences.  

 

That means your #1 draft pick high school starter will like not reach the bigs until 2020 at the earliest.  Too long IMO.  Go with either the best position player available or best college starter available.

 

 

The other thing too is the lack of specialization here.  He's a pitcher but also a potential shortstop or vice versa?  This to me is red warning flags.  I mean what is he?  A pitcher or an infielder and why the dual tract?  Has he not decided which direction he wishes to go? Just smells fishy to me.

 

People are always wooooed and wowweeed by the the headline "elite prospect throws upper 90's!!! Potential 95-120 mph fastball", in flashing neon lights.  To me this is hook line and sinker and really a sign that the prospect is a make work project that needs tons of time in the minors developing due to lack of control.  The Twins have a very poor record of developing guys like this (Alex Meyer comes to mind).    

Edited October 19, 2016 by laloesch

[Mike Sixel]

 

The other thing too is the lack of specialization here.  He's a pitcher but also a potential shortstop or vice versa?  This to me is red warning flags.  I mean what is he?  A pitcher or an infielder and why the dual tract?  Has he not decided which direction he wishes to go? Just smells fishy to me.

 

People are always wooooed and wowweeed by the the headline "elite prospect throws 98-100 mph fastball", but to me this is hook line and sinker and really a sign that the prospect is a make work project that needs ton of time in the minors developing due to lack of control.  The Twins have a very poor record of developing guys like this (Alex Meyer comes to mind).    

 

Lots of HS kids pitch and play other positions. He just happens to be great at both.

 

He's being considered for 1:1.....this isn't some random guy....

[laloesch]

 

Lots of HS kids pitch and play other positions. He just happens to be great at both.

 

He's being considered for 1:1.....this isn't some random guy....

 

Yeah..... but usually if your that good at one position you pick one or the other not both.  I played sports in high school and college and that was very rare, at least the schools i went too.  I mean if the team was a stinker it was much more common and it also depended on the sport too.

Edited October 19, 2016 by laloesch

[Cory Engelhardt]

FYI, Florida is playing at Vanderbilt April 13, 14 and 15. I don't know if I could make that trip with two young kids at home, but that would certainly be a fun road trip with the possibility of seeing 4 of the top potential picks in the draft (Faedo, Schwarz on Florida and Wright and Kendall on Vanderbilt. Plus Nashville is a pretty fun town, or so I have heard.

[laloesch]

 

I'm with Thrylos. I like guys that show command of good secondary stuff. The "aces" in MLB are more than just guys with velocity, but have great secondary pitches.

 

Agreed.  Control is everything and multiple offerings is the difference between a flame throwing relief pitcher and an ace starter.  If he was a bit further along with the secondary offerings it would be a no brainier pick, but at this point it's iffy.

[h2oface]

Notre Dame High School in Sherman Oaks is minutes away from where I live! Their season starts soon. Hey glunn, do you want to join me and catch Hunter Greene before he has Tommy John surgery? I think I will catch a couple high school games.