Article: What Experts Are Saying About Potential Top Pick Hunter Greene

[Tom Froemming]

The 2016 season mercifully came to an end, and Twins fans hope to someday be rewarded for suffering through the worst season in team history. Because in baseball, sometimes in the long run it pays to lose.

 

Thanks to their impressive ability to rack up losses, the Twins "won" the first overall pick in the 2017 Draft. Yes, it will be several years before we'll see the team's top pick play at Target Field, but that doesn't change how exciting it is that the team will have the opportunity to add a franchise-changing talent to the organization.Who the Twins may take with the first selection will probably be speculated about right down to draft day. Last week, Jeremy Nygaard did a great job of outlining a handful of players the Twins are likely looking into as potential No. 1 picks.

 

Draft day (June 12, 2017) is still a long way away, but it appears at the moment that Hunter Greene has broken out as the guy with the highest ceiling in the class. The question is should that be what the Twins target, or should they look for more certainty and lower risk? If the Twins are searching for a player to make a more immediate impact, they'll likely pass on Greene, who will be just 17-years-old on draft day.

 

A standout pitcher and shortstop for Notre Dame High School in Sherman Oaks, Calif, Greene can flirt with 100 mph on the mound and has a home run derby crown to his credit, hitting moonshots out of Wrigley Field at the Perfect Game All-American Classic.

 

And he appears to be a bright kid, as he was recently boasting about getting a 31 (out of a possible 36) on the ACT. For more on Greene's backstory, look no further than Hudson Belisky of Baseball America's excellent and thorough profile.

 

Time will tell if he can maintain the 1-1 buzz, but below are quotes from some credible sources with first-hand knowledge of Greene. Each of these was pulled from articles with more information on Greene and some have reports on other players in the mix to be the No. 1 overall pick, so I would encourage you to check them out. Also, with Greene being such a high-profile player already, there's tons of video of him on YouTube to drool over.

 

 

"Greene was 96-98 mph in his inning of work with a super loose arm and little effort. His delivery is too quick, so while he stays online, and threw strikes on Saturday, to remain a starter he's probably going to have to slow it down and get a consistent rhythm. But this kind of arm -- present plus velocity without substantial effort -- is rare."

 

-Keith Law, ESPN.com, on Greene's performance at the Under Armor All-American Game [link]

 

 

"Likely at the top of most boards right now. A shortstop and a pitcher, there is some debate over where he has more potential. Keep in mind a high school right-handed pitcher has never been taken No. 1 overall."

 

-Jonathan Mayo, MLB.com [link]

 

 

 

"His fastball is absolutely electric, sitting in the mid-90s and touching as high as 98 with good extension and movement that plays in the zone. I think Greene’s heater would be effective in the big leagues right now and, though the rest of his repertoire is middling, his body and athleticism make the entire package worthy of top-of-the-draft consideration."

 

-Eric Longenhagen, Fangraphs [link]

 

 

"Greene’s delivery starts with an athletic, well-coordinated leg lift. He folds his front leg and brings his knee to the height of his sternum, and then his hands break just as his leg comes down and his lower half begins to generate torque. He has an easy arm action, with a slight wrap in the back and explosive arm speed as he fires through his three-quarters slot. Greene lands online and spins off his front toes as his back side comes through. He gets his torso extended over his front side, giving him additional extension towards home plate. His arm decelerates well, finishing across his body without recoil or violence, and his head stays still throughout the process."

 

-Hudson Belinksy, Baseball America [link]

 

 

"Greene has an athletic-yet-sturdy build at 6-foot-3, 195 pounds to go along with his emerging three-pitch repertoire and clean delivery. He ran his fastball up to 98 mph more than once this summer, settling into the mid-90s in short stints. His low-80s slider isn’t consistent yet but flashes plus potential, and he’s also shown an advanced change-up."

 

-Jesse Burkhart, Today's Knuckleball [link]

 

 

"He has shown two potential plus pitches and another bonus is that he will still be 17 on draft day. On upside alone, there is not a better player in this class."

 

-Jeff Ellis, Scout.com [link]

 

 

"He sat at 94-96 mph with his fastball with considerable movement and touched 98. His slider was inconsistent at best during the Under Armour All-American Game the previous month, but it flashed plus here, and he was able to locate the pitch for strikes for the most part. He also showed a change in the mid-80s that he buried down with good arm speed, and although he didn't have great feel for it, you can see the makings of a quality third offering."

 

-Christopher Crawford, ESPN.com, on Greene's performance at the Area Code Games [link]

 

 

Of course, Greene's status as a potential top pick isn't written in stone. It's more like written in sand at high tide. There's another dozen or so players who have the opportunity between now and the draft to establish themselves as the top pick between now and June.

 

 

Whoever ends up with that honor will hopefully one day help Twins fans make this 103-loss season worth all the suffering.

 

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[Pardon My Dinger]

Is it too late to coin the term 'tanky panky'?

[HitInAPinch]

"Keep in mind a high school right-handed pitcher has never been taken No. 1 overall."

 

I can't figure this out.  Why would this matter?

 

Anyway, there's several things mentioned that I really like:

 

Loose arm

Fastball with considerable movement

Everything Belinksy said about his delivery

 

Only wish he was a few years older  

[gunnarthor]

I certainly won't complain if the Twins take that risk but we have a while before we have to really narrow it down.  He has season to pitch yet and some of the college arms could break out as well.  I hope they go BPA and I'm hoping that BPA is a college arm.

[gunnarthor]

 

"Keep in mind a high school right-handed pitcher has never been taken No. 1 overall."

 

I can't figure this out.  Why would this matter?

I think it suggests that the industry weighs the risk of the HS arm a bit more than we fans do.  A few LH starters have gone 1-1 (including Brady Aiken) but LH starters are rarer.  

[Loosey]

I like Greene at #1 for a few reasons:

 

1) He seems to have the potential to be a true #1 starter with electric stuff.

2) He is young and hopefully will get much better than he already is and more refined

3) He is probably 5 years away from seeing time in the Majors - So 2021 or 2022 is when he would make his debut.  Which (if things work out the way we hope for the Twins) will be around the time when perennial all-stars Sano, Buxton, Berrios will be approaching free agency.  Also if the Twins are winning they won't be getting high picks so timing Greene with possibility of losing an all-star will be a nice timing for reloading instead of rebuilding. 

[Mike Sixel]

There is no chance it takes him 5 years to make the majors if he's the pitcher people think. No way.

[Thrylos]

The problem I have with Greene is that he has one pitch that is above average at this moment, and that is the fastball (which is plus, actually.)   Unless his secondary stuff improves by draft time, the Twins should be better of passing, because there are better arms out there, and Greene looks like a reliever right now.

[gunnarthor]

 

There is no chance it takes him 5 years to make the majors if he's the pitcher people think. No way.

Well, barring injury of course.  

 

That said, he sounds to me a bit more like (a better) Kolak than Bundy.  Bundy was nearly a finished product when he was drafted in 2011.  Greene might need more work but his arm is amazing.  

[Monkeypaws]

In the words of Calvin Griffith, " I really like that kid."

 

Hey, Dwight Gooden broke into the majors at 19. Give him a couple years in the minors to work on the secodary offerings and boom, potential ace.

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

The problem I have with Greene is that he has one pitch that is above average at this moment, and that is the fastball (which is plus, actually.)   Unless his secondary stuff improves by draft time, the Twins should be better of passing, because there are better arms out there, and Greene looks like a reliever right now.

Agreed. Everything says his slider could potentially become plus, but by no means is it there yet. He has a changeup too, but who knows. If Falvey and company truly believe they can mold him, then I'm all for it. But there is obvious risk associated with someone who is a pitcher and only has 1 true pitch. Still, at 17, there is a ton of development that can still happen, and he is very athletic, so he has all of that going for him.

That said, if there were a college arm with 2 plus pitches and even an average 3rd that could become plus, that would be an easy pick come draft day.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Well, barring injury of course.  

 

That said, he sounds to me a bit more like (a better) Kolak than Bundy.  Bundy was nearly a finished product when he was drafted in 2011.  Greene might need more work but his arm is amazing.  

 

True, but injuries can happen to anyone. He's not some guy that overthrows, and he's not had surgery before.....

 

I do agree he might need more work, but it won't be 5 years......heck, if Berrios had appeared last year like he should, that would have been 3 years....and if Gonsalves pitches next year in MN, that is 4 years. 

[Thrylos]

 

 

That said, if there were a college arm with 2 plus pitches and even an average 3rd that could become plus, that would be an easy pick come draft day.

 

What if that player was a High Schooler with 2 plus pitches (one borderline plus plus) and an above average third?  Alex Scherff has all of that, plus a great approach to the game.

[Dman]

I like Greene for the pick.  I like that he is really young and can be molded through the system.  I think his upside is just too hard to ignore.  Go big or go home.  Time for this franchise to take chances for high potential players.  

 

With another high school pitcher we should have a nice class of guys coming up together at the same time.  Hopefully he shows some good development next year and doesn't get hurt but this is the guy I like best by a wide margin right now.

Edited October 14, 2016 by Dman

[Kwak]

The real risk in drafting the High-School pitcher is the reliance on the Twins' internal pitcher development system. Many years of operation by substantially the same people has yielded disappointing (just keeping it clean!) results. A college-aged pitcher who has shown at least two plus pitches and a functional third pitch is an entirely different player. As tempting as it sounds to take the "highest upside" (the definition of which is vague) the team is depending on its own staff to do the developing of said pitcher. I am not convinced the Twins are up to the task to transform a raw talent into a star.

[gunnarthor]

 

The real risk in drafting the High-School pitcher is the reliance on the Twins' internal pitcher development system. Many years of operation by substantially the same people has yielded disappointing (just keeping it clean!) results. A college-aged pitcher who has shown at least two plus pitches and a functional third pitch is an entirely different player. As tempting as it sounds to take the "highest upside" (the definition of which is vague) the team is depending on its own staff to do the developing of said pitcher. I am not convinced the Twins are up to the task to transform a raw talent into a star.

Do you know who the Twins pitching development people are?  Do you know how long they've doing those jobs?  

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

What if that player was a High Schooler with 2 plus pitches (one borderline plus plus) and an above average third?  Alex Scherff has all of that, plus a great approach to the game.

 

That all sounds good to me. I'd be all for it. Can't say I've heard his name much before you started mentioning him. I'll have to read up more about him. Thanks!

[Halsey Hall]

No matter who they pick, and how good they turn out, it won't ease the pain of 103 losses.

[Loosey]

 

There is no chance it takes him 5 years to make the majors if he's the pitcher people think. No way.

Five years from Today.  He won't be drafted until next June and then gets 2 months there.  Then I don't think it's unreasonable to think he will be in the minors 2018,2019,2020.  

 

Looking back at my math its bad.  But 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 if he needs to refine secondary stuff more 2021.  Five years.

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Five years from Today.  He won't be drafted until next June and then gets 2 months there.  Then I don't think it's unreasonable to think he will be in the minors 2018,2019,2020.  

 

Looking back at my math its bad.  But 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 if he needs to refine secondary stuff more 2021.  Five years.

 

Ah, I misunderstood. Got it.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

The real risk in drafting the High-School pitcher is the reliance on the Twins' internal pitcher development system. Many years of operation by substantially the same people has yielded disappointing (just keeping it clean!) results. A college-aged pitcher who has shown at least two plus pitches and a functional third pitch is an entirely different player. As tempting as it sounds to take the "highest upside" (the definition of which is vague) the team is depending on its own staff to do the developing of said pitcher. I am not convinced the Twins are up to the task to transform a raw talent into a star.

 

I heard a rumor there was a major front office shakeup  

 

I'm guessing that will trickle down to development too. 

[Thrylos]

 

I heard a rumor there was a major front office shakeup

 

I'm guessing that will trickle down to development too. 

 

This ^^^^^

 

Especially when the guy in the top baseball spot comes from the pitching development world...

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

What if that player was a High Schooler with 2 plus pitches (one borderline plus plus) and an above average third?  Alex Scherff has all of that, plus a great approach to the game.

 

The other fun thing that could happen if the CBA doesn't change all that much; the Twins could potentially take whoever they think is the best player at #1, and still potentially sign someone like Scherff (if he isn't among the top 8 or so drafted) with their top pick in the 2nd round.

[Darius]

100 mph at 17? Can he just get his Tommy John out of the way now?

[Darius]

I heard a rumor there was a major front office shakeup

 

I'm guessing that will trickle down to development too.

I'll be surprised if the Pohlads let him clean house. Im guessing that's why they went with him instead of a McLoed, etc. He's young, and probably willing to go along with the wishes of ownership to get his shot (in terms of personnel, spending, etc) Edited October 14, 2016 by Darius

[Siehbiscuit]

What if that player was a High Schooler with 2 plus pitches (one borderline plus plus) and an above average third?  Alex Scherff has all of that, plus a great approach to the game.

I'm with Thrylos. I like guys that show command of good secondary stuff. The "aces" in MLB are more than just guys with velocity, but have great secondary pitches.

[Monkeypaws]

 

100 mph at 17? Can he just get his Tommy John out of the way now?

Waiting till he's fully grown to work on breaking balls? Sounds good to me.

[dgwills]

 

The problem I have with Greene is that he has one pitch that is above average at this moment, and that is the fastball (which is plus, actually.)   Unless his secondary stuff improves by draft time, the Twins should be better of passing, because there are better arms out there, and Greene looks like a reliever right now.

I'd have to agree. Sounds like a great prospect, but not exactly what you want with the first pick in the draft. He does have a year to improve though.

[gunnarthor]

I'm not sure how much his secondary stuff can improve against HS competition - if those kids can't hit his 98 mph fastball, there's not a lot of incentive to not throw it.

[Thrylos]

 

I'm not sure how much his secondary stuff can improve against HS competition - if those kids can't hit his 98 mph fastball, there's not a lot of incentive to not throw it.

 

Sure there is.  About 4 million dollars, which is the difference of the slot bonus from the first to the fourth picks...