Article: What To Make Of Kennys Vargas

[Seth Stohs]

What are we to make of the 2016 season of Kennys Vargas? In 47 games, he hit .230/.333/.500 (.833) with 11 doubles and ten home runs. The slugging first baseman/designated hitter will be out of options in 2017. Can he be an everyday big league player or will he need to fit into a role of some type? Let’s dig into some of his minor league and big league numbers to see what they might tell us.

 

Let’s start by looking back a bit.The Twins signed the hefty slugger from Puerto Rico in 2009. He had not been selected in the first-year players draft, but the Twins had enough interest to sign him as a non-drafted free agent. He spent his 18- and 19-year-old seasons in the Gulf Coast League. He then spent a season in Elizabethton. Unfortunately, while playing for the E-Twins, he was suspended 50 games for using a performance enhancing drug.

 

By the rules at the time, his fifty games only counted during the Elizabethton season. That meant in 2012, his season didn’t start until very late. He played just 44 games in Beloit. He spent 2013 in Ft. Myers and 2014 in New Britain, at least until the Twins called him up. He debuted August 1st, on his 24th birthday.

 

He provided power that year and was the team’s Opening Day starter in 2015 but things went poorly. He was optioned twice, once to Rochester, and then once to Chattanooga where he was able to find his offense again.

 

He spent most of 2016 in AAA, though he came up in early July and provided offense for a month. He struggled and a numbers situation (re: pitching issues) had him sent back to the Red Wings. He returned for September and the struggles continued.

 

However, he did make a couple of significant improvements in his game in 2016 that are intriguing as we go forward.

 

Let’s take a look at his numbers at each level of the minor leagues as well as each of his three big league seasons.

 

Low A - 41 G, 186 PA - .318/.419/.610 (1.030) with 10 doubles, 11 homers

High A - 125 G, 520 PA - .267/.344/.468 (.813) with 31 doubles, 19 homers

AA - 132 G, 556 PA - .282/.376/.483 (.859) with 20 doubles, 24 homers

AAA - 134 G, 553 PA - .246/.374/.438 (.812) with 22 doubles, 21 homers

MLB - 158 G, 595 PA - .251/.309/.434 (.743) with 25 doubles, 24 homers

 

While Vargas was never considered a prospect, he has always put up some intriguing numbers, He had 20-25 home runs potential. He took quality plate appearances and was willing to take walks. Some of the concerns were that he never really had a good glove at first base. He was very much one-dimensional and that one dimension wasn’t elite.

 

Low A - BB% - 15.0%, K% - 22.0%, XBH% - 11.8%

High A - BB% - 9.6%, K% - 20.2%, XBH% - 10.2%

AA - BB% - 12.4%, K% - 18.0%, XBH% - 8.3%

AAA - BB% - 16.6%, K% - 23.1%, XBH% - 8.0%

MLB - BB% - 7.6%, K% - 29.2%, XBH% - 8.2%

 

As you can see above, he has walked at every level, until he got to the big leagues. But the following chart will maybe shed some light on this.

 

MLB Time Only

2014 - BB% - 5.1%, K% - 26.9%, XBH - 8.5%

2015 - BB% - 4.9%, K% - 29.3%, XBH - 4.9%

2016 - BB% - 13.6%, K% - 32.2%, XBH - 11.8%

 

While the 2016 MLB sample size was smaller, he improved two things. First, he greatly improved his approach at the plate and willingness to walk. Over those first two big league seasons, he walked 21 times and struck out 117 times. While he struck out at a greater percentage in 2016, he showed much more power as well. Consider this: Vargas’ 11.8% extra-base hit percentage falls just behind Brian Dozier’s 11.9% in 2016.

 

So clearly maintaining a nearly 12% extra base hit rate doesn’t seem realistic, but the 8% average that he’s had in the upper levels of the minor leagues would mean 40 extra base hits over 500 plate appearances. And if he can even walk 10% of his plate appearances, that would be 50 walks.

 

I think a realistic season for Vargas, playing four to five games each week, would be .250/.325/.400 (.725) with about 22 doubles and 20 homers.

 

It’s a solid season, but it’s certainly not what a team would want from a DH and part-time first baseman.

 

So, let’s consider another set of details, his lefty-righty splits.

 

In 2016:

Vs RHP - 125 PA - .168/.280/.374 (.654)

Vs LHP - 52 PA - .378/.462/.800 (1.262)

 

Career:

Vs RHP - 384 PA - .223/.281/.411 (.693)

Vs LHP - 211 PA - .302/.360/.474 (.834)

 

In other words, Kennys Vargas mashes against left-handed pitchers. The Twins have a left-handed hitting first baseman who needs days off. We saw that the last couple of the months of the season. Paul Molitor did not play Joe Mauer often against left-handed pitching. It’s a strategy that makes sense for all involved, for Mauer, for Vargas and for the team.

 

Just a short paragraph on Vargas’s defense. It’s OK. It’s below average, but it’s OK enough to put out there a couple of times a week. It’s a clear step, or six, down from Joe Mauer’s first base defense, but again, it’s acceptable.

Vargas had an encouraging 2016 season after a very disappointing 2015 in Minnesota and Rochester. He did in 2016 what he was asked to do when the Twins sent him down to the minors in 2015. He had a better approach at the plate, and hit for much more power. It was a big year for him, knowing he would be out of options in 2017. Vargas showed enough to be in the plans to get some playing time next year.

 

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[Kwak]

Vargas's swing is like Arcia's--and he will be susceptible to fastballs up. I wonder if the new administration is like the previous with respect to "he's out of options--so put him on the team"?

[Willihammer]

It just, leaves, a little, to be desired IMO. 25 HR / 600 for a plodding, strikeout-prone, wrong-way split DH. Yes he could unload for a 40 HR season, that wouldn't surprise anyone.

But is he more likely to have that kind of breakout than Park? IMO, the answer is probably no.

Edited October 12, 2016 by Willihammer

[Shane Wahl]

I like Vargas more than Park. And, of course, Vargas has been considered a prospect before. Not a top prospect, but he did hover around the top ten in 2014, I think. He mashes lefties and is an overall good hitter with power from both sides. This is absolutely a guy I want on the team. 

[TheLeviathan]

The conclusion to draw is to give him lots of at-bats next year and see what we have.

[DocBauer]

The conclusion to draw is to give him lots of at-bats next year and see what we have.

 

Agree. Overall, minors and majors, he's shown power potential and the ability to still take walks for a quality OB. I can live with power and OB with a few SO's and mediocre BA. He's still relatively young, has reportedly worked hard on adjustments, and it's just too soon to tell what you really have unless/until you give him a legitimate shot at consistent playing time. By 2017 you may have Walker or Palka ready to take over. But you still have to see what you have here in Vargas.

[Shane Wahl]

Mid-2014 I had Vargas at no. 8. And that was a loaded prospect group. The bat is for real. The ability to take walks is going to be huge. His ISOD of .103 in the majors is a great thing to see. It was .128 in Rochester in 2016, so I think there is something to it. Vargas is a career .849 OPS hitter in the minors and he returned to the Twins this year with an .833 OPS. A .725 OPS for 2017 seems quite pessimistic. 

[Rosterman]

I would happily start 2017 with Vargas anywhere and have Park, Walker and Palka in the minors, ready to step up. Even though Sano at third and Mauer at first could create issues down the line.

 

I would give him 40 solid starts at DH/1B and then make a decision. None of the mickey-mousing that they did with Arcia. Park can start in the minors. Should start in the minors. Period.

[TheLeviathan]

Plus, the kid worked hard and earned more opportunity.  I hope that gets rewarded.

[Vanimal46]

It just, leaves, a little, to be desired IMO. 25 HR / 600 for a plodding, strikeout-prone, wrong-way split DH. Yes he could unload for a 40 HR season, that wouldn't surprise anyone.But is he more likely to have that kind of breakout than Park? IMO, the answer is probably no.

Agreed. I could see a role for Vargas if he mashed RHP as a LH hitter. An MLB career .693 OPS with a 30.7% K% as a LH hitter leaves very little to be desired. Add on top of that he's provides minimal defensive value... I'll take the chance on Park over Vargas.

[Riverbrian]

The ball leaves his bat at 279 MPH. 

 

Let him swing it

 

If you do... The rest is up to him. 

[jimmer]

 

The ball leaves his bat at 279 MPH. 

 

Let him swing it

 

If you do... The rest is up to him. 

I look forward to seeing what Parmel, er, Vargas will do with a full season.

[TheLeviathan]

Speaking of first base,

 

I am eagerly awaiting our bi-annual tradition of celebrating Mauer's health!  We're probably 5 months away from that "Mauer feels like he's 19 again!" newspaper article and about 11 months from the "Mauer: I used a walker in the hallways between games but kept playing like a trooper" follow-up.

 

Play Vargas.

[beckmt]

I also prefer Park to Vargas. But depth is not a bad thing, you never know.

[clutterheart]

He has to play or the Twins will never know. But Mauer isn't going anywhere and Vargas has no defensive flexibility so keeping him on the bench as a platoon guy isn't a good option. So I would guess he is gone by July of next year.

I hate to say it but so much of this team's roster issues go back Joe.

[big dog]

 

He has to play or the Twins will never know. But Mauer isn't going anywhere and Vargas has no defensive flexibility so keeping him on the bench as a platoon guy isn't a good option. So I would guess he is gone by July of next year.
I hate to say it but so much of this team's roster issues go back Joe.

I don't know, trying to find a lot of time to play a mediocre defensive first baseman who really struggles to hit RH pitching...doesn't seem like Mauer's the problem there.  Does anyone really think he's the long-term answer at first base?  I like him, a lot, as a bench bat and twice-a-week player, if we ever get the pitching that allows us to carry a bench bat.  That's about it.  I hope whomever we play regularly at first brings more to the table than that.

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

The conclusion to draw is to give him lots of at-bats next year and see what we have.

This.

 

Give him a shot. He's earned it.  At this point, we don't know what we have in Vargas until we give him some extended time.  Worst case scenario, he's a late inning pinch hit bat that sits on the bench when a team brings in a tough lefty.  At the major league minimum, that's not a bad thing.  Best case, he shows that he's capable of putting up a line similar to his minor league career, at which point he's an above average contributor at the plate.  Only way to find out is to give him a chance.  That means Mauer is going to have to play some occasional 3rd or find himself on the bench a bit more.

[Old Twins Cap]

Sometimes big guys take longer to get to their peak.  Age 28 or 29 before they have full motor control of a very large apparatus.

 

I remember a guy named Ortiz who played pretty well for the Twins, but was oft-injured and they let him go.

[Shane Wahl]

I mean . . . I guess he has done what we like to see from younger players . . . he first came up and hit pretty well, then struggled in his time with the Twins in 2015, and then now has bounced back. He seems to have figured some things out, at least power production--doubles and homers--to make the strikeouts palatable.

[mazeville]

I think Kennys Vargas should go into next year as the starting DH. Kid had an .830 OPS in 2016. He struck out a lot yes, but he drew a few walks and provided some nice pop in the middle of the lineup. 

 

You could also platoon Vargas at first with Joe Mauer, who should not play every day next year, anyway. Mauer wasn't very good with lefties this year. Vargas destroyed lefthanded pitching. Mauer had a .793 OPS v. righthanded pitching. 

[big dog]

 

Sometimes big guys take longer to get to their peak.  Age 28 or 29 before they have full motor control of a very large apparatus.

 

I remember a guy named Ortiz who played pretty well for the Twins, but was oft-injured and they let him go.

How many 26-28 yr olds who might develop someday can be on the roster at once?   I'm ready to give him a half-season of DH/1B backup, then move on to Palka/Walker/whomever.  We have a whole bunch of rapidly-aging minor leaguers to work through.  And none of them are going to be Ortiz.

[Thrylos]

I suspect that there are some people who would want to let Vargas go and also would offer Plouffe arbitration. 

 

Career numbers:

 

Vargas (age 25) .251/.309/.434, 25 HR, 595 PA (23.8 PA/HR)

Plouffe (age 30) .247/.308/.420, 96 HR, 2909 PA (30.3 PA/HR)

 

If anything, Vargas will give at least Plouffe like production with more HR power, at 1/20th of the cost, as has not yet reached his prime.

No-brainer.

 

Rotate him in 1B/DH with Mauer and Park, unless you find a buyer for them

[Steve Lein]

 

I hate to say it but so much of this team's roster issues go back Joe.

 

Yup, I've been saying this for multiple years. 

 

Mauer has a spot on this team, it's just not as a regular anymore. If that idea were in place, several other puzzle pieces would connect I think.

[HitInAPinch]

But we still need to see more of Byung Ho Park.  And the Twins have a longer financial commitment to him.  3 years remaining, I believe. 

 

 

[Doomtints]

There isn't much of a story here.  Vargas skipped AAA and performed better than anyone expected.  Then he stumbled, which also should have been expected.  He then got better, which, again, should not have surprised anybody because almost every young player struggles at some point within their first 365 days.  Even moreso for a guy who skips a level.

 

As others have said, he just needs more at bats.  The Twins made an error by having Vargas in the organization and then signing Park.  One of them has to go.  It would be a shame if the Twins developed Vargas -- the "Twins Way" -- and then blocked him and ultimately send him packing.

 

The Twins would probably get more for Vargas in a trade than they would for Park.  This doesn't mean getting rid of Vargas is the right way to go.  

[ashbury]

I'm hoping the new front office does a bit of culling among the glut of corner/DH types we have, preferably via trade rather than simply non-tender them. Minus a couple of those players, Vargas's role will become clear. He's either with some other team, or is part of the Twins lineup as a platoon bat at minimum. Plouffe gone, Vargas for a prospect in single-A, or Park for a prospect in single-A - I'm not sure I care which two of these happens.

[Seth Stohs]

In my opinion... Mauer shouldn't play more than 2 days in a row in 2017. They have to keep him as strong as they can, so more time off is what should happen. Molitor played him almost every day the first 2+ months of the season. He was performing, but then his legs left him... 

 

So yeah, I'd play Vargas at 1B against all left-handed pitching, and also against the occasional right-hander when the Twins see RHP often. 

 

The issue becomes Park. What if he's actually healthy this year coming out of spring training and can hit like most think he will. He should be playing a lot and fits into the 1B/DH situation. 

[EddieMatthews]

In 2014 Vargas had better splits against right handed pitchers.  His slash line vs RHP was .309/.338/.561 while he had  .228/.287/.318 vs LHP.  These are all small sample sizes, but he had over 100 PA's on each side in 2014.  

 

Do you think that the Twins have verified that Vargas should be switch hitting? Maybe his eyesight is better from the right side.  Maybe he has better mechanics.  Like so many young players, the Twins have not always found the best path to success.  They should have a plan going into Spring Training or they might lose another Ortiz to the Sox.

[Bill]

In AAA in 2016, Vargas hit .283 against righties and .131 against lefties.  The extreme difference is seemingly a fluke of small numbers.  That said, there are some years in the minors when he hit better against lefties and some years when he better against righties.

 

Vargas has been a consistently good hitter as he moved up through the minors, and has made a notable improvement at taking walks.

 

I say give him significant PT against both lefties and righties and see what happens.

[Loosey]

 

I suspect that there are some people who would want to let Vargas go and also would offer Plouffe arbitration. 

 

Career numbers:

 

Vargas (age 25) .251/.309/.434, 25 HR, 595 PA (23.8 PA/HR)

Plouffe (age 30) .247/.308/.420, 96 HR, 2909 PA (30.3 PA/HR)

 

If anything, Vargas will give at least Plouffe like production with more HR power, at 1/20th of the cost, as has not yet reached his prime.

No-brainer.

 

Rotate him in 1B/DH with Mauer and Park, unless you find a buyer for them

Looking at it that way (Comparing to Plouffe instead of Mauer, Park) makes a ton of sense since hopefully Plouffe will be let go.  I like it.  Good way to show this.