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Article: Twins Must Get Creative In Pursuit Of Pitching Help


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In attempting to re-tool and improve a catastrophic pitching staff, the Twins and their new Chief Baseball Officer Derek Falvey will need to explore every avenue.

 

Here are a few worth looking into.When we release our annual Offseason Handbook in about a month (pre-order details coming soon!), it will lay out a multitude of roster construction options, as always. Which ones make the most sense?

 

Obviously the Twins aren't at a point where it would be logical to go all in on an established ace or bullpen star through free agency or trades, so instead, the Twins must focus on upside and value. Here are a few approaches I would like to see from Falvey and the restructured front office.

 

Gamble on high-upside free agents

 

The Twins have plenty invested in mid-level free agent talent. They already have enough long-term commitments on the books with aging arms. Since the pitching really can't get any worse, though, they don't need to worry about the downside of a boom-or-bust arm in free agency.

 

There are a few such names out there. You'll find all of them in the Handbook but a few that stand out are starters such as Brett Anderson and Derek Holland, as well as relievers like Greg Holland and Drew Storen. These players may prove too risky for some contenders, but could be lured to a rebuilding club by guaranteed contracts with incentives.

 

Trade from areas of offensive depth

 

Obvioulsy Brian Dozier's name is going to be at forefront of trade buzz surrounding the Twins this offseason. If the Twins are aiming to acquire a true frontline-caliber talent, they'll need to offer him up.

 

However, if they are committed to keeping Dozier and building around him, they could set their sights a bit lower. They have enough outfield depth that they could afford to part with Eddie Rosario or even Max Kepler for the right return. Jorge Polanco might bring back a high-end pitching prospect. Perhaps even Kennys Vargas has intrigued a bat-needy team enough to bring back a youngster with some potential.

 

In 2010, with Falvey serving as assistant director of baseball operations, the Indians identified a struggling Double-A pitcher in the Padres system named Corey Kluber. They acquired him as part of a three-team deal that involved them giving up veteran mediocrity Jake Westbrook. They ended up with a Cy Young winner.

 

The Twins need a hit like that right now.

 

Scour the international market

 

These days, more and more top-tier talent is entering the pro ranks through international free agency rather than the draft.

 

The Twins have brought in outstanding prospects like Miguel Sano, Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler through this avenue. Teenage infielder Wander Javier, signed to a $4 million bonus last July, is an example of their increasing aggressiveness on the Latino market. They have taken financials leaps of faith on established Japanese and Korean hitters like Tsuyoshi Nishioka and Byung Ho Park. But their international efforts when it comes to pitching have been far quieter, and less fruitful.

 

Falvey should urge a stronger push for the most renowned arms across all foreign frontiers. One name to watch is Hector Mendoza, a Cuban righty who is reportedly preparing to pursue MLB free agency. The 22-year-old has worked as a reliever but Baseball America's Ben Badler has said he "has the attributes to be a starter and would certainly be in that role if he were in the United States," ranking Mendoza among Cuba's top prospects.

 

Currently there aren't any premier names of the Masahiro Tanaka class to be lured from Japan or Korea, but with Dodgers rookie Kenta Maeda becoming the latest story of a successful transition from the Far East, this is a region that cannot be ignored.

 

Find catchers that can help out

 

Minnesota's pitchers were bad this year, no doubt, but they didn't get much assistance from their receivers. Kurt Suzuki, Juan Centeno and John Ryan Murphy all rated poorly in terms of pitch framing, let too many stoppable balls skip past them, and failed to adequately control the running game.

 

With Suzuki set to depart, the Twins have stated that their top offseason priority is finding a new catcher. They have enough offensive quality throughout their lineup that they can afford to target glove-first players who deliver value primarily with their defense.

 

Of particular interest to me is free agent Jason Castro, who developed a very strong reputation with the Astros. Pitch framing metrics rank him among the best, and he's even got a little pop with double-digit homers in four straight seasons. He batted just .210 this year while sharing time with Evan Gattis, so he might be rather affordable.

 

Implement new training and strengthening techniques

 

My curiosity about Falvey was piqued by reports of his championing innovative methods for strengthening pitchers and improving mechanics while in the Cleveland organization. I'd love to see him try out some new techniques and ideas here, because the present structure doesn't seem to be working.

 

As I wrote last week, I also think there is a clear need for a more experienced pitching coach. At every step of the organization, pitching instruction and development should be critically reviewed. In particular, the Twins should examine the latest research and advancements on preserving shoulder health, because that has been a particularly problematic issue for their hurlers.

 

What are some strategies you would utilize to turn around the pitching staff?

 

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I think you save money this year and not invest in questionable pitching. You may need to add a reliever or two, Greg Holland is a good thought. Give plenty of the young pitchers chances to succeed or fail. They spend in 2017 offseason on front line pitching if you did not get some very good youngsters by trading Dozier.

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Nope.  The Twins need to follow a standard course in their rebuilding of their pitching staff.

 

Two steps.  

 

First, get their young prospects up and throwing at teh MLB level.  Weed out the bad and develop the good.

 

Second, use their existing assets to acquire pitching prospects.

 

When the team has played all of their chips and hopefully have a competitive team, they can fill their holes with veteran acquisitions.  Blyleven was the guy (added in 1985) that helped fill otu the rotation in 1987.  Morris was the guy in 1991. 

 

 

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The Twins really need to rebuild, and rebuild in a serious way.  They are not a starter, a closer, and a catcher away from being competitive.  Which means that 30 year old free agents should not be close to their target.  Their core is at around 23 years old.   If you are looking to build a team that will be competitive for a long time, you want that core to reach their primes together.  Which means that nobody over 26 should (*) be around, in 2017.

 

Nobody.

 

This makes the likes of:

 

Mauer (*)
Dozier
Escobar
Plouffe
Grossman
Park (*)
Centeno
Schafer
Santana
Gibson
Milone
Kintzler
Pressly
Tonkin
May
Santiago
Hughes (*)
Perkins (*)
Boshers
O Rourke
Wimmers

etc

 

Goners.  

 

Packaging them creatively with decent prospects that the organization does not need (Walker, Stewart, Gordon, etc.) and targeting 2-3 good arms younger than 23, and a catcher that age, would be the way to go.  Dozier, Santana, May, Gibson, Santiago do have value and in combination with prospects might bring back what the Twins need.  Other than May, I will be disappointed if any of those 4 are in a Twins' uniform come next Spring, because it will tell me that the new CBO has no idea how to rebuild either.  Dozier can be the player who can get a competitive team to the next level, for the Twins, he is lipstick.

 

Agreed about international free agents, but they will be much younger than the current core.  Do not forget the first overall pick in 2017.  I would pick the best and closest to MLB-ready arm, no matter if Joe DiMaggio's second coming was around.  They need to go for need now.

 

Of course, a total organizational shift in developing pitchers, starting with a wholesale clearance of  pitching coaches starting from the majors and the MiLB pitching coordinator should be happening.

 

I would have no issues with a rotation of Berrios, Mejia, Gonsalves, Jay, and a new young arm  and a pen of Burdi, Chargois, Duffey, Taylor, Melotakis,  Jones, and Reed or Hildenberger.

 

Half of those minor leaguers are about to get too old, they better see what they got.

 

 

(*) Unfortunately there will not be many takers for Mauer, Perkins, Park, and Hughes.   The Twins might just need to cut the cord with Perkins, play the Mauer contract out and hope that Park and Hughes return great so they can trade them during the season. 

Edited by Thrylos
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Gamble on someone like Brett Anderson in FA - low salary, high incentives if he stays healthy. It could turn out to be a Rich Harden situation where he never sees the field as a Twin, but they need to do something. 

Improve the bullpen and C. Move on from Centeno / Suzuki and make a play for someone like Castro, Wieters.

 

Trade Dozier for SP help.

What's Falvey's track record in the international market? The Twins have never been in on signing Cuban free agents before. Could he change that? 

 

 

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Don't forget giving Trevor May a chance to start again (health permitting). He has a chance to be at least a league-average starter for the Twins. Moving him to the rotation a and Duffey to the pen has the chance to improve the Twins rotation a significant amount.

 

Assuming the Twins don't go out and get another bigger name starter through one of the means you mentioned above, I'd start the season with:

 

1. Santana

2. Gibson

3. May

4. Berrios

5. Hughes/Mejia/Brett Anderson

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Nope.  The Twins need to follow a standard course in their rebuilding of their pitching staff.

 

Two steps.  

 

First, get their young prospects up and throwing at teh MLB level.  Weed out the bad and develop the good.

 

Second, use their existing assets to acquire pitching prospects.

 

When the team has played all of their chips and hopefully have a competitive team, they can fill their holes with veteran acquisitions.  Blyleven was the guy (added in 1985) that helped fill otu the rotation in 1987.  Morris was the guy in 1991.

 

Your examples, Blyleven and Morris, were both acquired prior to "having a competitive team." Morris was signed to a team that finished in last place.

 

You can't wait until you have a competitive team to "fill the holes" you need to fill to become a competitive team.

 

Acquire the players needed to compete. That's how you become competitive. Hopefully, there are just about enough position players in place to get there, so fix the pitching. Now.

 

If you are saying the Twins don't currently have the position players to compete, you are in effect saying Sano, Buxton, Kepler, Polanco, et al are busts.

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The Twins really need to rebuild, and rebuild in a serious way.  They are not a starter, a closer, and a catcher away from being competitive.  Which means that 30 year old free agents should not be close to their target.  Their core is at around 23 years old.   If you are looking to build a team that will be competitive for a long time, you want that core to reach their primes together.  Which means that nobody over 26 should (*) be around, in 2017.

 

 

I like a lot of this comment but this in particular.

 

This sentiment should color everything the Twins do this offseason. The reality is the Twins will not contend in 2017, whether anybody likes it or not. That should keep them away from the free agent market unless said free agent is young and will help the team for years to come.

 

It's also why you trade guys like Dozier and Ervin Santana and non-tender guys like Trevor Plouffe. 

 

Personally, I have hopes this team can rebuild quickly because of the cache of young talent. But this team needs too many players, especially pitchers, to be truly competitive.

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"They have enough offensive quality throughout their lineup that they can afford to target glove-first players who deliver value primarily with their defense."    DISAGREE....

The current offense contributes:  too many double play balls, too many strikeouts, too many SOLO homeruns, too many wasted at bats  (outs that do not advance a runner) AND too few clutch hits, too few walks, too few sacrifice hits, too few stolen bases and too few hits off of quality pitches.

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1. Get Otani

2. Employ the Peter Principle in reverse- Gibson, Duffey, Milone, Hughes to the pen

3. trade from 2B and corner OF prospect depth- Polanco, Arraez, Blankenhorn, Palka, Walker, etc.

4. Trade Santana to whoever is most likely to outbid us for Otani, acquire non-40 prospects.

5. Trade Dozier only if blown away

6. Try to find a 1/2 year deal for older FA with upside - Colon, Hill, De La Rosa, etc

7. Be ready to add and promote Gonsalves and Jay if they start strong in AA/AAA.

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Well, it's pitching pitching and pitching (though I'm 100% on board with the strength training comment and any kind of thing like that which may alter things if needed)...

 

That said, I think you have to trade Dozier.  I'd like to get something like Glasnow in a headline, though I don't know if the Pirates need help at 2B that bad so as to trade Glasnow as a piece, but those are the types of trades I'd be looking for.  None of the FA SPs scream worth it.  I'd rather roll with Esan (if not traded), Gibson, May, Mejia, Berrios, trade acquisition... especially given that one of Gonsalves, Stewart, Jay, Romero, or Jorge could be forcing their way up as soon as mid-season. 

 

I do think guys like Holland/Storen make a ton of sense. 

 

Castro doesn't excite me too much. It's not a bad acquisition given the defensive upgrade, but I think I'd roll with Murphy/Garver at C unless we acquired a starting catcher by trading Ervin.  I'd keep most of the offense in tact (minus Plouffe) and tell Mauer that he needs to work on fly balls as well as some occasional 3B.  You aren't getting rid of him, so he needs to start being flexible if he wants to play more.  He should be fine defensively at 3rd as the skills (other than the arm) are pretty much the same as at first. I like the idea of keeping him around against righties, but I definitely want to see more of Park/Vargas at 1st/DH, which means that Mauer is going to move around a bit.   

 

I'm all for international, but I doubt any of those guys could help now.  Otani has to actually be posted (no guarantee there), and he's probably the closest to an option that could help.

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so fix If you are saying the Twins don't currently have the position players to compete, you are in effect saying Sano, Buxton, Kepler, Polanco, et al are busts.

 

Not true. Personally, I feel like we have the young bats that we'll need to form the core of our lineup.  I also think there is a good chance all of them will need time to refine their approach and their game to be the hitters I believe they will be.  2017 is likely to be that adjustment year for many of them still.

 

So while they are still developing, it's best we don't dump resources into short term fixes in some blind effort to "compete" in 2017 when we can better spend our resources towards 2018.  And invest innings and at-bats into players that should be ready to compete then.

 

Dumping a bunch of innings into short term fixes at the expense of long term gains is precisely how we got our 2016 season.  Haven't we learned our lesson?

Edited by TheLeviathan
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1. Get Otani

I'm absolutely on board with this. A couple of things though:

 

1. Is he going to post this off-season? It's been very quiet on that front.
2. The last thing I see on MLB Trade Rumors (granted this was from May) is Otani wants to go to a team that will use him as both a pitcher and hitter. That screams NL, or the Twins could be the first AL team to use him as a DH on his off-days I suppose. 

There's a lot of hype behind Otani, and more than likely he's going to shatter Dice-K and Darvish's posting fee record. 

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I'm absolutely on board with this. A couple of things though:

 

1. Is he going to post this off-season? It's been very quiet on that front.
2. The last thing I see on MLB Trade Rumors (granted this was from May) is Otani wants to go to a team that will use him as both a pitcher and hitter. That screams NL, or the Twins could be the first AL team to use him as a DH on his off-days I suppose. 

There's a lot of hype behind Otani, and more than likely he's going to shatter Dice-K and Darvish's posting fee record. 

I think we could offer him a chance to hit as we move out of the Mauer era, assuming he has the bat for it. I'm a lot more confident in his 100 mph fastball personally. But maybe he could fill a double role as a LH bench bat long term? Another possibility is if the bat is better than the stuff, he DH's and then closes games.

 

I haven't heard much lately either. But if I were him, I'd definitely post this year with such a lousy FA class.

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Dumping a bunch of innings into short term fixes at the expense of long term gains is precisely how we got our 2016 season.  Haven't we learned our lesson?

Agreed.  The only way I want to see short term fixes playing is because of A) injury, or B) you think a prospect needs half a season in the minors before you're going to call him up.  Anything else is a waste and counterproductive.

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Thrylos, you continue to say that Gordon is not needed. Now maybe he won't stick at Shortstop. Who knows. But to say we don't need him because the twins have an amazing shortstop in Polanco is ridiculous. By no defensive metric was he even just below average last year. I know the twins maybe screwed with his development by not playing him at short, but who is to say he would be even league average if he had played there all year? What did he show anyone that he is a major league caliber shortstop? If anything you move him to 2nd where he may be league average and have Gordon or Vielma or someone from the outside covering short. Trusting that to Polanco seems folly at best

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I don't know how creative they need to be.  Trading, free agency, coaching, promoting, cutting.  All teams gotta do the same thing.  Ryan was trying hard with the coaching, I believe, as he was very active with the minors.  The rest of the list?  Not so much.

 

Conceptually, they just need to start acting like the other teams in the sport.  Ryan acted like he "knows better" than other teams in spite of never winning a championship.  If he had ever won anything I could see his attitude.  But the Twins were bottom feeders for most of his tenure and he had little to back up his way of pretending he could do things in a better way.  

 

Sure, Ryan's cheapness broke up the 00s playoff teams faster than you can say, "Seems like a bad move, Terry" but the teams kept on winning in spite of the rapid turnover thanks to a few key guys sticking around.  We have to tip our hats to Ryan for that.  But that's all the kudos he deserves.  

 

Just getting a guy in who is willing to do what needs to be done is a gigantic step forward.  For Twins fans this might seem creative, I guess, since we're used to management doing the minimum.

Edited by Doomtints
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Thrylos, you continue to say that Gordon is not needed. Now maybe he won't stick at Shortstop. Who knows. But to say we don't need him because the twins have an amazing shortstop in Polanco is ridiculous. 

 

What I am saying is that the Twins need a young top pitching prospect close to the majors more than they need Gordon.  The rest are assumptions ;) 

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So while they are still developing, it's best we don't dump resources into short term fixes in some blind effort to "compete" in 2017 when we can better spend our resources towards 2018.  And invest innings and at-bats into players that should be ready to compete then.

 

Dumping a bunch of innings into short term fixes at the expense of long term gains is precisely how we got our 2016 season.  Haven't we learned our lesson?

 

If the right long term fixes are not available, by all means sign short term fixes in the meantime.  The Twins can then look for long term fixes next year.  The Twins should be done with "Giving up because the talent isn't there yet."  

 

Every inspirational speaker will tell you that the stars never align perfectly for anything.  At some point you gotta just go for it if you ever want to succeed.  Otherwise you sit around like Ryan did waiting for the perfect year to appear.  That's ludicrous.  The Cubs are the only "perfect team" I have seen since the 2001 Mariners -- who as you may remember fell in spite of being nearly perfect.  Yes, that's right, an imperfect team knocked out one of the better teams you probably ever saw.  There is certainly nothing guaranteed for the Cubs this year, either.

Edited by Doomtints
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The Twins really need to rebuild, and rebuild in a serious way. They are not a starter, a closer, and a catcher away from being competitive. Which means that 30 year old free agents should not be close to their target. Their core is at around 23 years old. If you are looking to build a team that will be competitive for a long time, you want that core to reach their primes together. Which means that nobody over 26 should (*) be around, in 2017.

 

Nobody.

 

This makes the likes of:

 

Mauer (*)

Dozier

Escobar

Plouffe

Grossman

Park (*)

Centeno

Schafer

Santana

Gibson

Milone

Kintzler

Pressly

Tonkin

May

Santiago

Hughes (*)

Perkins (*)

Boshers

O Rourke

Wimmers

etc

 

Goners.

 

Packaging them creatively with decent prospects that the organization does not need (Walker, Stewart, Gordon, etc.) and targeting 2-3 good arms younger than 23, and a catcher that age, would be the way to go. Dozier, Santana, May, Gibson, Santiago do have value and in combination with prospects might bring back what the Twins need. Other than May, I will be disappointed if any of those 4 are in a Twins' uniform come next Spring, because it will tell me that the new CBO has no idea how to rebuild either. Dozier can be the player who can get a competitive team to the next level, for the Twins, he is lipstick.

 

Agreed about international free agents, but they will be much younger than the current core. Do not forget the first overall pick in 2017. I would pick the best and closest to MLB-ready arm, no matter if Joe DiMaggio's second coming was around. They need to go for need now.

 

Of course, a total organizational shift in developing pitchers, starting with a wholesale clearance of pitching coaches starting from the majors and the MiLB pitching coordinator should be happening.

 

I would have no issues with a rotation of Berrios, Mejia, Gonsalves, Jay, and a new young arm and a pen of Burdi, Chargois, Duffey, Taylor, Melotakis, Jones, and Reed or Hildenberger.

 

Half of those minor leaguers are about to get too old, they better see what they got.

 

 

(*) Unfortunately there will not be many takers for Mauer, Perkins, Park, and Hughes. The Twins might just need to cut the cord with Perkins, play the Mauer contract out and hope that Park and Hughes return great so they can trade them during the season.

Agree very interesting take and cant/won't disagree in principle. But I will argue with you as to the totality of your cuts. For instance, just to pick a name, Pressly. He's not really all that old, has decent stuff, and pitched well the majority of the year. Also, being a RP, he's not as "old" as a starting pitcher, if that makes sense.

 

The team is in a rebuild mode, though no-one from the Twins has ever used that word. And I like the team still getting younger and making room for more top prospects. But I don't think you can arbitrarily just say to cut everyone over a certain age, especially when some of those guys could not only help you, but potentially help you for several seasons.

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If the right long term fixes are not available, by all means sign short term fixes in the meantime.  The Twins can then look for long term fixes next year.  The Twins should be done with "Giving up because the talent isn't there yet."  

Agreed. This last season was particularly bad on the injury side, but most any season, a team needs 5-6 MLB quality starters, and 3-4 fringe MLB players (top prospects) to prevent the Albers and Deans of the world from seeing an MLB field.

Right now the Twins have 4 MLB experienced potentials (E San, Gibson, Santiago, May) and 3 fringe MLB starters (Mejia, Berrios, Gonsalves) I've purposely left out Hughes until there's more clarity with his injury, and I don't know what to think about Duffey. 

I'd prefer not to have a Duffey/Berrios MLB implosion again, so Mejia/Gonsalves should be handled more conservatively. 

I see 1 or 2 short term fixes in the rotation until some of the fringe MLB players force the issue. If they do force the issue, then a Brett Anderson type can be flipped for something else in July. 

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Agree very interesting take and cant/won't disagree in principle. But I will argue with you as to the totality of your cuts. For instance, just to pick a name, Pressly. He's not really all that old, has decent stuff, and pitched well the majority of the year. Also, being a RP, he's not as "old" as a starting pitcher, if that makes sense.

The team is in a rebuild mode, though no-one from the Twins has ever used that word. And I like the team still getting younger and making room for more top prospects. But I don't think you can arbitrarily just say to cut everyone over a certain age, especially when some of those guys could not only help you, but potentially help you for several seasons.

 

The problem with Pressly (and Tonkin) is that these guys have had the opportunity to show what they have and it is not much.   Pressly pitched 208 MLB innings at the rate of 3.55/3.70/4.25 ERA/FIP/xFIP, 6.58 K/9, and 1.33 WHIP, which is mediocre.  He has only one above average pitch (slider) according to pitch values.

 

The problem with keeping a mediocre reliever is the opportunity cost on players such as Reed, Hildenberg, Jones (who are not spring chicken btw).  Bottom line is seeing what they can do (or not) is much more important for the Twins that giving a mediocre reliever, who will not be part of their future competitive teams, more reps.  Lost opportunity (and lack of vision, of course) has been a major issue with the Twins, and about time that changes.

 

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Your examples, Blyleven and Morris, were both acquired prior to "having a competitive team." Morris was signed to a team that finished in last place.

You can't wait until you have a competitive team to "fill the holes" you need to fill to become a competitive team.

Acquire the players needed to compete. That's how you become competitive. Hopefully, there are just about enough position players in place to get there, so fix the pitching. Now.

If you are saying the Twins don't currently have the position players to compete, you are in effect saying Sano, Buxton, Kepler, Polanco, et al are busts.

 

1.  We already have done the "acquire" the players and that has been a disaster.  IT put the development timeframe completely off because the relatively expensive players they signed: Hughes, Nolanso, and Santana were put in with a bunch of mediocrities and/or developing players that are not effective yet.  Bad move and should not be repeated.

 

2.  The 1985 move to get Blyleven certainly was a move by a competitive team. The Twins had competed in 1984 and they had been radically improving from 1982 - 1984.  

 

3.  I would say essentially the same about 1991.  While they were in last place, the entire core of the team was present.  This wasn't a team filled with unproven rookies.  Hrbek, Puckett, Harper, Gagne, Gladden, Mack, Larkin, Bush, Tapani, Aguilera, and others were on the 1990 team which had a bad year.  Scott Erickson made his debut that year and Chuck Knoblauch would in 1991.  Adding Morris was a good move to add to that group and probably was enough to get them over the edge.

 

4.  So, it is obvious that the best move this season and perhaps the next is to get the young players up and player.  Lets call the 2016 season equivalent to the 1982 season.  Let some growth happen in 2017 and perhaps 2018.  THen see were you need to add pieces. 

 

5.  LOL at your claims I am calling the Twins prospects busts.  The problem is that it takes time to develop and evaluate prospects.  The Twins approach has been too methodical and that is why we have lost 90+ games 5 out of the last six years, with the 6th year being a 100+ loss season, and there are at least one if not two expected losing seasons to go.

 

6.  And, as I have stated in other responses, the sad thing about the Twins methodical approach is that even as they move their prospects slowly one level at a time at best, they still arrive at the major league level unprepared and lacking in fundamentals.  That is a huge indictment against the management of the organization.

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