Article: Seth's Preliminary Top 50 Twins Prospects: Part 8 (1-5)

[goulik]

When ranking prospects, in my own head, I'm looking at likelihood of reaching the majors and projecting how good they will be in MLB. Having that as my filter, being higher in MiLB automatically means they are closer to the majors. That would cause me to shuffle the rankings you have put up here Seth, but overall, a good first stab. You have said many times this is the preliminary list, I am looking forward to the final rankings and the handbook.

[h2oface]

Personally, I am really tired of high school players that get drafted high and take forever to help the Twins, if ever. College pitchers that are then made to be something they weren't in college is a close second. I hope the new FO drafts much better, and lets college sort some of the high school failures out, instead of the Twins farm system. I don't know what to say about high draft picks like Levi Michaels. The top five are going to need a lot of luck to make it, is my bet. The Twins need some stars, not just MLB average players or worse.

[Siehbiscuit]

Hypothetically, if Gonsalves had been the pick at number 4 and Stewart the pick in the 4th round wouldn't we all be very pleased? Gonsalves is performing like what we "wish" Stewart was, and Stewart like a solid 4th round pick. Both have a very solid upside still.

[Seth Stohs]

 

When ranking prospects, in my own head, I'm looking at likelihood of reaching the majors and projecting how good they will be in MLB. Having that as my filter, being higher in MiLB automatically means they are closer to the majors. That would cause me to shuffle the rankings you have put up here Seth, but overall, a good first stab. You have said many times this is the preliminary list, I am looking forward to the final rankings and the handbook.

 

It's what I think most try to do. Consider ceiling and likelihood of reaching that ceiling and come up with the list. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Hypothetically, if Gonsalves had been the pick at number 4 and Stewart the pick in the 4th round wouldn't we all be very pleased? Gonsalves is performing like what we "wish" Stewart was, and Stewart like a solid 4th round pick. Both have a very solid upside still.

 

Very good point and question... I would think we'd be thrilled.

 

Someone whose opinion I trust a ton on this kind of stuff told me that I ranked two guys took low... 

 

1.) Kohl Stewart.

2.) Brusdar Graterol. 

 

 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Personally, I am really tired of high school players that get drafted high and take forever to help the Twins, if ever. College pitchers that are then made to be something they weren't in college is a close second. I hope the new FO drafts much better, and lets college sort some of the high school failures out, instead of the Twins farm system. I don't know what to say about high draft picks like Levi Michaels. The top five are going to need a lot of luck to make it, is my bet. The Twins need some stars, not just MLB average players or worse.

 

I would say that Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, Jose Berrios, Max Kepler... those are the guys with the 'star potential.' They are no longer on these lists, which automatically drops the overall rankings down. 

 

I believe Nick Gordon can be a potential All Star. Fernando Romero, Alex Kirilloff, Lewin Diaz, and Wander Javier have huge potential. They're just a ways off.  Jay and Gonsalves can be 2/3 starters and there's a ton of value in that. Jay could be an elite reliever, and there's value in that. 

 

The Twins have done best when drafting high school athletes in the 1st round. Examples include Joe Mauer, Torii Hunter, Michael Cuddyer, Ben Revere, Denard Span, and hopefully Byron Buxton is in that category. (So, as you can imagine, I really liked the Kirilloff, Rortvedt, Baddoo and Miranda picks in 2016!)

 

The college pitcher route hasn't gone as well, though outside of Adam Johnson, they haven't drafted any real high in the draft. Kyle Gibson and Alex Wimmers were drafted in the 20s. 

 

They haven't drafted many college hitters in the first round either. Levi Michael was drafted like 30th overall. It hasn't worked but it doesn't make it a bad strategy and the sample size is way too small. 

 

High school pitchers... Stewart is certainly a question mark at this point. But I think we all still believe in Berrios and he was a late first-round pick. 

[Thrylos]

 

 

 

 

 

The Twins have done best when drafting high school athletes in the 1st round. Examples include Joe Mauer, Torii Hunter, Michael Cuddyer, Ben Revere, Denard Span, and hopefully Byron Buxton is in that category

 

 

Those 5 players do not belong in the same sentence.  

 

Mauer and Hunter have had borderline Hall of Fame careers with multiple All Star appearances, Gold Gloves and MVP votes between them.

 

Cuddyer has been an average corner outfielder whose move to Colorado extended his career.  Single All Star appearance.

 

Span is an average centerfielder whose best accomplishment is to get 6th in the ROY vote

 

Revere is a below average centerfielder who did not accomplish much and likely will be relegated to a platoon/bench role

 

And let us not forget the other High School 1st round picks after Hunter and before Buxton (and btw, Hunter was a MacPhail pick, FWIW) :

 

B.J. Garbe
Matt Moses
Trevor Plouffe
Kyle Waldrop
Jay Rainville
Hank Sanchez
Chris Parmelee
Aaron Hicks
Travis Harrison
Hudson Boyd

 

So the Twins really have had more busts when they drafted HS athletes on the first round, than not, esp. the current front office (and Hunter, again was not a Ryan FO pick.)

So Mauer, one average (Cuddyer), two almost there (Plouffe, Span), a couple borderline MLB starters (Hicks, Revere), a AAAA player (Parmelee) and a bunch of busts.

 

The Twins did great (Sano, Polanco, Romero, Kepler, Jorge, etc.) with international free agents during the Bill Smith time.

 

That's about it.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Those 5 players do not belong in the same sentence.  

 

Mauer and Hunter have had borderline Hall of Fame careers with multiple All Star appearances, Gold Gloves and MVP votes between them.

 

Cuddyer has been an average corner outfielder whose move to Colorado extended his career.  Single All Star appearance.

 

Span is an average centerfielder whose best accomplishment is to get 6th in the ROY vote

 

Revere is a below average centerfielder who did not accomplish much and likely will be relegated to a platoon/bench role

 

And let us not forget the other High School 1st round picks after Hunter and before Buxton (and btw, Hunter was a MacPhail pick, FWIW) :

 

B.J. Garbe
Matt Moses
Trevor Plouffe
Kyle Waldrop
Jay Rainville
Hank Sanchez
Chris Parmelee
Aaron Hicks
Travis Harrison
Hudson Boyd

 

So the Twins really have had more busts when they drafted HS athletes on the first round, than not, esp. the current front office (and Hunter, again was not a Ryan FO pick.)

So Mauer, one average (Cuddyer), two almost there (Plouffe, Span), a couple borderline MLB starters (Hicks, Revere), a AAAA player (Parmelee) and a bunch of busts.

 

The Twins did great (Sano, Polanco, Romero, Kepler, Jorge, etc.) with international free agents during the Bill Smith time.

 

That's about it.

 

I didn't put them all in the same category of MLB player... I put them in a sentence of Twins HS hitting draft picks that have had solid MLB careers. And I should have put Plouffe in there. Revere's got 5-6 years of MLB service time. He fits the "had a solid MLB career" status. 

 

Waldrop, Rainville and Boyd were HS pitchers, and I noted that they haven't had much success in that type of draft pick. 

 

I certainly don't expect anything draft-related to be perfect... 

[Willihammer]

Could add Garza too. And a bunch more HS arms.

 

I do think the Twins recent history of drafting college relievers, with the intent of converting them into starters is... bold. Sort of like they're saying "all you college programs, you're doing it wrong." When you look at the higher picks- Melotakis, Cederoth, Duffey, culminating in Tyler Jay, the early returns seem to be, at best, mixed.

The other thing is, in a season where a rental closer traded for multiple top 100 prospects, is that maybe there's not such a gap in value between starters and high end relievers in the first place. Granted it was Chapman, but you wonder are the Twins thinking about what tomorrows markets are going to look like? The game keeps changing...

Edited October 12, 2016 by Willihammer

[h2oface]

I must need rose colored glasses. Sure, one would like to drink the koolaid and ignore this year's future "stars", but what I saw with clear clean lenses was a .230s club that includes Sano, Kepler, and Vargas, and Buxton lucky to see the .220 club. Yeah yeah... better months and weeks here and there. Strikeout mania. Berrios massive fails. So they all need to be average before they are stars. Reality folks.

[Kwak]

 

I must need rose colored glasses. Sure, one would like to drink the koolaid and ignore this year's future "stars", but what I saw with clear clean lenses was a .230s club that includes Sano, Kepler, and Vargas, and Buxton lucky to see the .220 club. Yeah yeah... better months and weeks here and there. Strikeout mania. Berrios massive fails. So they all need to be average before they are stars. Reality folks.

You should be able to borrow those glasses from one of the many posters on TD.

 

A possible contributor to draft "failures" is: "we like what you've done--now change to do things our way." If a prospect "doesn't get it, they dump him.

[bird]

 

I didn't put them all in the same category of MLB player... I put them in a sentence of Twins HS hitting draft picks that have had solid MLB careers. And I should have put Plouffe in there. Revere's got 5-6 years of MLB service time. He fits the "had a solid MLB career" status. 

 

Waldrop, Rainville and Boyd were HS pitchers, and I noted that they haven't had much success in that type of draft pick. 

 

I certainly don't expect anything draft-related to be perfect... 

 

 

What thrylos failed to do was to compare results to other teams. It's hardly instructive to make lists of failures and successes like that. I can do that for any one of the 30 teams and it looks exactly like that list. If anyone doubts this, just look at a recent  look-back to the 2005 draft authored by John Sickles of the site minorleaguebaseball. He dug up his list of the Top 50 pitching prospects from that draft, which was regarded as an excellent one. Here are some facts:

 

1. Exactly 25 of the 50 most-coveted pitchers from that draft busted. 

 

2. Of the busts, 13 simply busted, and 12 were injury busts.

 

3. Among this elite list of 50, the Twins garnered 5 selections. That's 10%. No other team had that many.

 

4. Only 5 other teams had more than 2 names on the list.

 

5. The Twins results matched (exceeded, actually) the overall results. Of the 5, 3 were successful: Crain, Baker, and Perkins. One was an injury bust (Harben) and one turned out to be a head case (JD Durbin)

 

The point is simply this: making a list, good or bad, with zero context and attempting to sell it as "proof" is at best inferior analysis and at worst disingenuous. Even a factual, accurate comparison like what Sickles allows us to do neither proves or disproves an argument that the Twins are good or bad at the draft. It proves that the draft is really hard, and that's about it.

 

BTW, many people believe that Sickles would run circles around the knuckleheads the Twins have out there scouting pitchers. He had Crain (#6), Durbin (#19) and Baker (#30) ahead of Verlander (#34) and Perkins (#35). It's a bit of a crapshoot, people.

Edited October 12, 2016 by birdwatcher

[bird]

 

 

 

 

{The Twins did great (Sano, Polanco, Romero, Kepler, Jorge, etc.) with international free agents during the Bill Smith time.}

 

That Bill Smith was a genius. Hiring and overseeing the international scouts, and then getting out there and evaluating those guys personally, and getting all those handlers to warm up to him personally after shoving the local scouts out of the way, and doing 100% of the negotiating with every one of these guys' agents. I mean, just getting the three dozen pesky people who were involved in international scouting and who followed these guys for years to step aside so he could perform his magic. Pure genius. 

 

 

[Thrylos]

 

{The Twins did great (Sano, Polanco, Romero, Kepler, Jorge, etc.) with international free agents during the Bill Smith time.}

 

That Bill Smith was a genius. Hiring and overseeing the international scouts, and then getting out there and evaluating those guys personally, and getting all those handlers to warm up to him personally after shoving the local scouts out of the way, and doing 100% of the negotiating with every one of these guys' agents. I mean, just getting the three dozen pesky people who were involved in international scouting and who followed these guys for years to step aside so he could perform his magic. Pure genius. 

 

The genius part is that, unlike his spendthrift predecessor and successor, he opened the wallet and invested good $ in long-term potential, instead of spending the $ for the likes of Pelfrey and Correia.

[gunnarthor]

 

I must need rose colored glasses. Sure, one would like to drink the koolaid and ignore this year's future "stars", but what I saw with clear clean lenses was a .230s club that includes Sano, Kepler, and Vargas, and Buxton lucky to see the .220 club. Yeah yeah... better months and weeks here and there. Strikeout mania. Berrios massive fails. So they all need to be average before they are stars. Reality folks.

I don't think anyone doubts that but most of us can see that there are pretty good reasons to hope that those core guys (Vargas is not a core guy) will be pretty good.  Kepler had a 2.5 WAR season, Buxton's WAR was 1.9 and that shows his offensive floor is pretty low to be a strong player in the league.  Sano's defense was horrible - esp in the OF - but he still hit 25hr and put up a 110 OPS+ in what we all think is a bad year.  Mauer hasn't topped 110 since 2013.  Berrios did have a disaster season.  

 

I also think it's worth remembering - since this is a prospects thread - what the expectations were of these guys.  Sano and Buxton were always elite guys and cream of the crop.  But Berrios was an undersized supplemental first round pick that developed into a top 15 prospect.  Kepler (and Polanco) were big signings for us as Twins fans because it was an exciting year and there was something unique about Kepler but neither were big international signings that year.  Both were in the 15-20 range in bonuses.  Both developed into pretty darn good prospects.  No team will ever draft perfectly - look at how few drafted players are part of the Cubs or Cleveland or even the Nats, for instance.  But I do think that Steil and company have done a really nice job of developing players since he took over in 2012.  If you get two players out of a draft, it's a good draft and I think most of those drafts we can get at least that.

[bird]

 

The genius part is that, unlike his spendthrift predecessor and successor, he opened the wallet and invested good $ in long-term potential, instead of spending the $ for the likes of Pelfrey and Correia.

 

I give Billy Smith credit for being one of a number of people who advocated in favor of opening up the wallet and taking the risk on Sano. Contrary to your myth, he wasn't even the most adamant voice, or the most influential. I doubt he even offered an opinion about Kepler, Polanco, or any of the others. He never saw Kepler play a single inning of baseball, and wouldn't know what to make of it if he did. Howard Norsetter had multiple times more influence on that decision, financial and otherwise, than Smith. I admire Billy Smith for who he is and what he's accomplished for the organization. I wish you and others gave him the credit he deserves for the things he's actually done instead of making up your own incredibly false history in an opaque attempt to continue to smear Ryan. 

Edited October 12, 2016 by birdwatcher

[bird]

 

I must need rose colored glasses. Sure, one would like to drink the koolaid and ignore this year's future "stars", but what I saw with clear clean lenses was a .230s club that includes Sano, Kepler, and Vargas, and Buxton lucky to see the .220 club. Yeah yeah... better months and weeks here and there. Strikeout mania. Berrios massive fails. So they all need to be average before they are stars. Reality folks.

 

Take heart, h2oface. Over the years, there have been a lot of fans who have needed glasses when it comes to the early stages of a player's big league career. We don't know which of these guys will end up more like Torii Hunter versus Marty Cordova, but it's not drinking koolaid to be optimistic, for example that Berrios will get it figured out any more than it might have been to excuse Frank Viola or Brad Radke for a shaky start. Or Brian Dozier. Or Gary Gaetti, especially defensively. Or Byron Buxton. Kepler. Sano. There's been plenty of evidence beyond the raw numbers that are telling discerning baseball people that Buxton and Sano still have the makings of future stardom. That's reality.

 

In short, I think it's reaonable to be optimistic that most of the players you mentioned with fulfill expectations eventually, and I think it's reasonable to be optimistic about this next wave too, as long as we remember they don't quite have the elite pedigree of Buxton or Sano.

Edited October 12, 2016 by birdwatcher

[Thrylos]

 

I give Billy Smith credit for being one of a number of people who advocated in favor of opening up the wallet and taking the risk on Sano. Contrary to your myth, he wasn't even the most adamant voice, or the most influential.

 

So who was the most influential voice during the Smith era, according to your truth?

Maybe the Twins fired the wrong person after 2010 then...

[bird]

 

So who was the most influential voice during the Smith era, according to your truth?

Maybe the Twins fired the wrong person after 2010 then...

 

 

Every single one of the scouts assigned to the international draft had more influence about both who should be signed and for how much than Billy Smith. And anyone who thinks they should all be fired is frightfully ignorant about the Twin's comparative success in the international arena.

 

Smith's influence on the international effort, in truth, began much earlier than his short and disastrous tenure as GM. He, along with Andy MacPhail and Jim Pohlad, waged a long battle with Carl Pohlad before Carl finally capitulated and approved a massive budget increase that allowed the organization to finally build the necessary infrastructure of facilities and staff to build relationships and compete for talent in the D.R. This initiative took years, but they now have a beachhead there. Smith was a huge part of building this, and is still leaving his prints in this effort in very positive ways. The most striking recent evidence is the new joint facilities there, and anyone familiar with how the organization works will tell you that Billy Smith has been one of the people at the center of this undertaking.

[Mike Sixel]

It's just an odd coincidence they never spent big before or after Smith....and that three of their best prospects were signed the one time they did. You are totally obsessed with not giving Smith credit, every time this comes up. He was the GM the one time they did what needed to be done to get more great talent, whether you like it or not.

[gunnarthor]

 

It's just an odd coincidence they never spent big before or after Smith....and that three of their best prospects were signed the one time they did. You are totally obsessed with not giving Smith credit, every time this comes up. He was the GM the one time they did what needed to be done to get more great talent, whether you like it or not.

Well, what were Smith's big signings in 2010?  

 

The rules changed on international signings and the Twins have done pretty well so I'm not sure it's fair to say they haven't spent after Smith.  They haven't nabbed a guy as universally acclaimed as Sano but they have spent a lot on guys (Javier) and they've spent their pool.  Some years, they've gone quality and some years they've gone quantity.  It's a bit too early to say how they've done - Lewin Diaz, for example, signed in 2013, just reached rookie ball.  But after 09, they've signed guys like Romero, Jorge, Thorpe, Ynoa, Vielma etc

[Mike Sixel]

This isn't the thread to rehash this conversation for the 1000000th time...

[Bob Sacamento]

 

Very good point and question... I would think we'd be thrilled.

 

Someone whose opinion I trust a ton on this kind of stuff told me that I ranked two guys took low... 

 

1.) Kohl Stewart.

2.) Brusdar Graterol. 

Agree on the 18yo Graterol, but with only pitching a couple of innings in Instructional Ball this fall, kind of hard to put him high up the ladder even with him hitting 97 mph.  Next year though, look out for Brusador Almighty in the GCL/Etown, he could climb exponentially.

[bird]

 

It's just an odd coincidence they never spent big before or after Smith....and that three of their best prospects were signed the one time they did. You are totally obsessed with not giving Smith credit, every time this comes up. He was the GM the one time they did what needed to be done to get more great talent, whether you like it or not.

 

I admit to an obsession with combating that dogged obsession of yours and others to paint a false picture of things. You aren't obsessed about crediting Smith. It's all about discrediting Ryan. It's actually unfair in different ways to both men.  

 

They spent big because it was Sano, Mike. No odd coincidence involved in any way whatsoever. Wander Javier probably garnered similar conviction from the scouting staff and therefore was signed at what constitutes a greater organizational risk than Sano represented, and this was not done under Smith's "watch".

 

The point I have repeatedly made is that the GM's role in all of this is being overplayed, often for the sole purpose of getting in another dig at Ryan. So let's have a truce. You guys give up your obsession at blaming Ryan by crediting Smith, and I'll give up responding with a very accurate description of how a whole lot of people should get the credit and why both Smith and Ryan are practically bit players in the scheme of things. If Wander Javier turns out to be a stud, and you start to obsess about crediting Ryan for signing him (now THAT'S funny!), I'm gonna be there.

[clutterheart]

I'll give up responding with a very accurate description of how a whole lot of people should get the credit and why both Smith and Ryan are practically bit players in the scheme of things. If Wander Javier turns out to be a stud, and you start to obsess about crediting Ryan for signing him (now THAT'S funny!), I'm gonna be there.

What an odd debate. Smith was willing to gamble while Ryan wanted the low/risk high reward victories. But Both were bad GMs and both made horrible decisions as well as a few good ones.

Twins fans just be should be hoping the Boy King Falvey does better.

[bird]

 

What an odd debate. Smith was willing to gamble while Ryan wanted the low/risk high reward victories. But Both were bad GMs and both made horrible decisions as well as a few good ones.
Twins fans just be should be hoping the Boy King Falvey does better.

 

 

You are incorrect in isolating the risk decision regarding international signings to Smith's desk. If it had been entirely up to Smith, Sano would not have happened. But I generally agree that Smith was a risk-taker and Ryan was not.

 

We share hope about Falvey. One of the first things he will do is to isolate the Twin's historical talent evaluation decisions from other contributing factors to the failings. It is my opinion, based among other things on a detailed analysis of the talent originally acquired by each team and either retained on their own 40-man roster or otherwise now occupying a spot on another team's 40-man roster, that Falvey will conclude that the organization is actually pretty good at identifying and procuring talent. He'll quickly turn his attention to the actual problems.

Edited October 14, 2016 by birdwatcher

[clutterheart]

You are incorrect in isolating the risk decision regarding international signings to Smith's desk. If it had been entirely up to Smith, Sano would not have happened..

Oh my. You are a dead ended aren't you?

I doubt Ryan would've spent that money on Sano while Smith did. But in the end who cares? Both deserved to be fired and hopefully they both never come back.

[ashbury]

Oh my. You are a dead ende[r] aren't you?

Moderator's note: All right. That's enough^* of the personal sniping, on all sides. Not to mention, the sub-thread about draft strategies has gone pretty far afield from the question of ranking our prospects. Stick to the topic, please; start another thread if you want to revisit the past.

 

^{* _{Too much, actually. But you know what I mean.}}