Article: Seth's Preliminary Top 50 Twins Prospects: Part 8 (1-5)

[Seth Stohs]

Over the past two weeks, we have been recognizing many Minnesota Twins prospects. We've already discussed many Twins prospects six through fifty. Today, we are finally to the final segment of this series. Today, we share the Top Five Twins prospects.

 

Prospects 6-50 all have a chance to make it to the big leagues. Some will rise of the rankings. Others will fall down the rankings. Some will be role players or get a cup of coffee in the big leagues, a couple could become big league regulars. Others, of course, will not advance to their ultimate goal.

 

However, when you get to an organization’s top five prospects, the stakes are a bit higher. These are the guys that build hope for an organization. These are the guys who have a chance to rank in the Top 100 nationally. These are the guy where hope of building cornerstone pieces lie. It’s important to remember that in recent years, Twins top prospects have included graduates such as Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, Jose Berrios and JT Chargois. All have been top ten prospects in these rankings in the last couple of years (five of the six last year), and each of them has an opportunity to be a cornerstone guy going forward. These five players also have that opportunity. If the Twins are going to get back to year-after-year competitiveness, they are going to have to hit on at least a couple of these five players and some from the previous reports.

 

Of the five names to follow, I will say that ranking them was difficult (as have been all 50 in these lists). I feel that I could make a decent case for any of them to be the Number One overall prospect.

 

If you've missed any of the previous installments, check them out here:

 

Part 1 (41-50)

Part 2 (31-40)

Part 3 (26-30)

Part 4 (21-25)

Part 5 (16-20)

Part 6 (11-15)

Part 7 (6-10)

 

And then feel free to join the conversation. Ask questions, start thinking about your personal Top 30 or Top 50 list. Now that this list is complete, hopefully you’ll share and post yours, either in the comments, or in a Blog post.Players eligible to be on this list include players who remain eligible for Rookie of the Year voting in 2017. That is to say, hitters with less than 130 at-bats and pitchers with less than 50 innings. (The list is preliminary. Following research for the Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook 2017 - which Cody Christie, Jeremy Nygaard and I are working on - I’ll provide my final Top 30 prospects list.)

 

Top Prospects 1-5

 

#5 – Tyler Jay - 23 – LHP – Ft. Myers Miracle

 

2016 was Jay’s first season as a full-time starter. He opened the year in the Miracle rotation. He went 5-5 with a 2.84 ERA in 18 games (15 starts). In his 69.2 innings, he walked just 21 and struck out 68. Late in the year, he moved up to Chattanooga where he pitched in five games (two starts). He posted a 5.79 ERA in 14 innings. His season came to an end a little early with a strained neck .

 

Jay was the Twins top draft pick, sixth overall, in 2015 out of the University of Illinois. As a junior, he worked over 80 innings, primarily out of the bullpen. He was 5-1 with 14 saves and a 0.60 ERA and a 0.61 WHIP. Because of his build, makeup and four-pitch mix, most scouts believed that he could make the transition to starter. Jay has a fastball that sits 92-94 pretty consistently. He has touched 97 regularly, usually out of the bullpen. He has a plus-plus slider. He has a strong curveball. He also has an improving change-up. Most believe that he can be a solid #3 starter with room to be a little better. As a bullpen arm, his comps (in terms of stuff) are Andrew Miller and Billy Wagner.

 

He pitched in the Florida State League All-Star Game at Hammond Stadium. In May, Jay went 3-2 with a 0.84 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP. In 32.1 innings, he struck out 38. He had an up and down season, but that month showed what he is capable of as a starter.

 

#4 – Nick Gordon - 20 – SS – Ft. Myers Miracle

 

Gordon will turn 21 years old later this month as he prepares for his fourth MiLB season. The Twins drafted Gordon with the fourth overall pick in the 2014 draft out of high school in Orlando. He jumped straight to the Appalachian League where he hit .294/.333/.366 (.699) for Elizabethton. He moved up to Cedar Rapids for the 2015 season. There he hit .277/.336/.360 (.696).

 

In 2016, he hit .291/.335/.386 (.721). He got off to a fast start. He hit .333 in April. In July, he hit .330. He had his ups and downs, but it was another good step forward for Gordon. Gordon was named to the Florida State League All-Star Game. He did miss some time during the season with a concussion.

 

Gordon gained 15 pounds last offseason in an attempt to add some pop and to help him through an exhausting season in Ft. Myers. Gordon has gap-to-gap, doubles power. He uses the entire field very well with a smooth left-handed swing. Gordon has above average speed, though he is not a burner by any means. At shortstop, he has good range and a very strong arm. Most believe that he can play shortstop as he goes forward, but he could eventually move to second base depending on other shortstop options.

 

#3 – Alex Kirilloff - 18 – OF – Elizabethton Twins

 

Kirilloff was the Twins top pick in 2016, the 15th overall selection in the draft. He led his Plum High School team to the Pennsylvania championship game this year after hitting well over .500 for the season. In high school, he primarily played center field, but he has also been a good first baseman when he has played there.

 

Kirilloff is an advanced hitter relative to most coming out of high school. His father, David, was once a scout and has held several baseball-related jobs. He currently runs a training program for hitters and has helped Alex immensely. Like Gordon, after signing, Kirilloff went directly to Elizabethton. He started off great. In July, he hit .373. Overall, he hit .306/.341/.454 (.794) with nine doubles, a triple and seven home runs. His season ended a week or so early with a shoulder injury. While he didn’t walk much with the E-Twins, he hit for average and some power. He has the potential to add a lot of power. At Elizabethton, he played mostly right field with a dozen games played in center field. He has average to slightly above average speed.

 

One more interesting note, all 232 plate appearances for KIrilloff in 2016 came against players older than him.

 

#2 – Fernando Romero - 21 – RHP – Cedar Rapids Kernels/Ft. Myers Miracle

 

If I’m being honest, I went back and forth many times over the last few weeks. Romero or Gonsalves. Gonsalves or Romero. In the end, I decided to put Fernando Romero at number two.

 

Romero was signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2011. He spent a season pitching in the Dominican Summer League. He entered the prospect map in 2013 when he pitched very well in the GCL and showed a big fastball. In 2014, he was called up to Cedar Rapids in early June. He made three starts as a 19-year-old before being shut down. He had Tommy John surgery soon after. He missed all of 2015 rehabbing. He also had knee surgery that year which delayed his return. Last year, he returned for Instructs where he was throwing in the mid-90s. He was doing the same in spring training. In mid-May, he was promoted to Cedar Rapids where he made just three starts before advancing to Ft. Myers. With the Miracle, he went 5-2 with a 1.88 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP. Overall, he struck out well more than a batter per inning.

 

Romero is a sturdy pitcher. He is listed at 6-1 and about 215 pounds. His fastball typically will sit 93-94 and has hit 99 on a few occasions. He has a plus cutter in the low 90s. He has both a slider and a curveball. He also have a change-up. He needs time. He was shut down at 90 innings this year (doesn’t include all of his extended spring innings) which got taken into account in the team’s decision to shut him down. He appears to be quite the fun-loving teammate as well. He won’t turn 22 until Christmas Eve. Let’s hope for some health and see just how good he can be.

 

#1 – Stephen Gonsalves - 23 – LHP – Ft. Myers Miracle/Chattanooga Lookouts

 

What a year 2016 has been for Stephen Gonsalves. Baseball America and MLB Pipeline both named him the left-handed starting pitching prospect of the year. He was Twins Daily’s choice for 2016 Starting Pitcher of the Year after winning the monthly award twice. His prospect status has risen in the Twins organization but also from a national perspective as well. He should be a consensus Top 100 prospect in all of baseball.

 

Gonsalves was the Twins fourth-round pick in 2013 and has pitched well each stop and each year since. He split that first summer between the GCL and Elizabethton and went 2-1 with a 0.95 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP. He had 3.5 BB/9 and 12.4 K/9. In 2014, he split time in Elizabethton and Cedar Rapids. He went 4-3 with a 3.02 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9. He split time in 2015 between Cedar Rapids and Ft. Myers. He went 13-3 with a 2.01 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9. In 2016, he was the Opening Night starter in Ft. Myers and shortly after pitching in the Florida State League All Star game, he was promoted to Chattanooga. Combined, he was 13-5 with a 2.06 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9. Simply put, he has pitched very well. He has produced on the field, enough to where now he’s finally being considered a prospect by people outside of the Twins fandom. .

 

Gonsalves looks the part of a starting pitcher. He stands 6-5 and a little over 200 pounds. He has a strong mound presence. His fastball sits between 90 and 94 most of the time, though he can pump it up a couple ticks when he wants to. He has a good change-up. His curveball made some strides in 2016, but last offseason, he added a slider/cutter to his pitch repertoire and it helped him tremendously during the season. He also has a very high baseball and pitching IQ. He knows how to set up hitters. He knows how to add and subtract from his pitches to help keep hitters off balance.

 

In Ft. Myers, Gonsalves was the Opening Night starting pitcher. He gave up a three-run homer in the first inning of that game. He then gave up three more runs combined in his next 38 innings. With the Miracle, he went 5-4 with a 2.33 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9. With the Lookouts, he went 8-1 with a 1.82 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP despite 4.5 BB/9, and he was helped with 10.8 K/9. Overall, opponents hit just .179/.269/.258 (.527) against him. It was a terrific 2016 season for Gonsalves. He now heads to the Arizona Fall League to put in some more innings. He’s put himself in such a position that he could debut with the Twins sometime in 2017.

 

So there you have it, my choices for the Top Five Twins Prospects. I’d love to hear your thoughts.

 

The decision between Stephen Gonsalves and Fernando Romero was very difficult, more difficult than you may guess. When considering age, level of competition, ceiling, production and all of the “prospect factors,” I came out with Stephen Gonsalves edging out Romero. But if asked, I could make an argument for all five of these guys. And maybe you can to.

 

Thank you for all the feedback throughout this series, and keep the comments and questions coming.

 

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[diehardtwinsfan]

Question on Gordon.  He had an OPS north of .800 for most of the year, but obviously tailed off.  Is that more an issue of endurance that he just needs to adjust to or that he's just not quite that good with the bat?  If he could maintain an .800 OPS with the bat while playing average to above defense, he's an excellent prospect, but if that OPS dips more into the .720 range, I don't really see him being that good of an asset.  He's still above average for a SS, but hardly one that really propels the team forward.

[Kwak]

Something about the Gonsalves write-up seems puzzling. After much praise comes the statement: "It was a terrible 2016 season for Gonsalves". What up?

[ashbury]

He's still above average for a SS, but hardly one that really propels the team forward.

He was a 20 year old, at high-A. To me, those numbers project just fine. If he can stick at SS, even more so.

[ashbury]

Something about the Gonsalves write-up seems puzzling. After much praise comes the statement: "It was a terrible 2016 season for Gonsalves". What up?

Terrible. Terrific. What's a few letters, among friends?

[Teddy]

In looking at Gonsalves' numbers, the walks look like a bit of a concern. Not having seen much video of his pitching, is that a fastball command issue (similar to Berrios)? Or is it a matter of needing further refinement of his other pitches?

[Deduno Abides]

Please see this week's Baseball America chat and John Manuel story regarding the top prospects in the FSL, which said Jay does not comp to Andrew Miller and Gordon is unlikely to stick at SS.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Something about the Gonsalves write-up seems puzzling. After much praise comes the statement: "It was a terrible 2016 season for Gonsalves". What up?

 

Yeah, I can't explain that one... It's been correct. You all know me. I'm such a Negative person... I think "Terrific" yet my fingers type "Terrible." 

 

I truly can't explain that. I need more sleep. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

In looking at Gonsalves' numbers, the walks look like a bit of a concern. Not having seen much video of his pitching, is that a fastball command issue (similar to Berrios)? Or is it a matter of needing further refinement of his other pitches?

 

I think it's just that the strike zone  gets smaller as players move up the ladder. Some maybe literally, in terms of what is called. But more important, as hitters advance, a lot of it can be due to better command of the strike zone. They don't expand the zone for the pitcher. That's an adjustment they all have to make. I don't think the command issues are a concern at this time.

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

With just one solid half-year behind him it's hard for me to get behind Jay being ranked this high. He's got a ton of potential that comes with a lot of question marks. But I guess the same could be said for #'s 6-10 as well.

 

I'm most excited to see Gordon in the AFL and next year in Chattanooga. I like his hit tool and if he could again add a little more pop (which getting out of Florida will help) over the offseason I see him busting out for a big year. I'm fine with an average defender at SS if he can hit like a stud.

[Deduno Abides]

I think it's just that the strike zone  gets smaller as players move up the ladder. Some maybe literally, in terms of what is called. But more important, as hitters advance, a lot of it can be due to better command of the strike zone. They don't expand the zone for the pitcher. That's an adjustment they all have to make. I don't think the command issues are a concern at this time.

In AA, a lot of Gonsalves's walks were in his first handful of games. It's reasonable to expect that his command will improve as he adjusts to the level of his competition.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Please see this week's Baseball America chat and John Manuel story regarding the top prospects in the FSL, which said Jay does not comp to Andrew Miller and Gordon is unlikely to stick at SS.

 

That's the first report I've seen that said that about Gordon.....I'm willing to give it another year to find out.

 

I also am not as high on Jay as Seth and others. I'd have him in the 10ish range, until we see a full year of starting.

[Seth Stohs]

 

With just one solid half-year behind him it's hard for me to get behind Jay being ranked this high. He's got a ton of potential that comes with a lot of question marks. But I guess the same could be said for #'s 6-10 as well.

 

I'm most excited to see Gordon in the AFL and next year in Chattanooga. I like his hit tool and if he could again add a little more pop (which getting out of Florida will help) over the offseason I see him busting out for a big year. I'm fine with an average defender at SS if he can hit like a stud.

 

I'm with you on the Gordon stuff. The AFL will be a good challenge him. He'll be very young there, so it'll not be easy. I also think he'll have another good offseason and in the Southern League, I think he's capable of 8-10 homers, which would be a nice bump. He's stronger than his numbers may say.

 

As for Jay... if they do send him to the bullpen, the comp is Andrew Miller... Obviously that's pretty elite, but if he's anywhere close to that, it's quite valuable. But your concerns about him are why I have him 5. Most rankings will likely have him in the 1-3 range. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Please see this week's Baseball America chat and John Manuel story regarding the top prospects in the FSL, which said Jay does not comp to Andrew Miller and Gordon is unlikely to stick at SS.

 

Jay (if throwing out of the bullpen) can be 95-98, with a great slider. OK, maybe not Andrew Miller... how about Glen Perkins. I'd say that would be great too.

 

And, there are plenty who don' think that Gordon will stick at shortstop, and there are as many who think he will, probably more. Some of that will depend on others as well. 

[gunnarthor]

Nice write up.  I think we might need to pump the breaks a bit on Gonsalves.  He's nice but he still probably profiles as a #3 type.  I like him a lot but we might be over ranking him a bit.  That said, with him, Romero and Jay in the top five, we have some impressive arms.  It's unlikely that they all reach their ceiling of course but those are nice chips to have.  Let's see where Jay is a year from now before we worry too much about his future role.  Romero's break-out has been fun to watch.  I really hope he can stay healthy.  I'd probably have him #2 in front of Gonsalves.

 

I think Gordon is clearly our #1 prospect right now but I'd like to see him draw a few more walks.  Kiriloff is a fun pick but far away.  But his bat really could be special.  He'll be fun to watch.  I think he's probably our best true hitter prospect we've had since Sano.  

[Han Joelo]

Hmm, let me take a stab at this.

 

Gonsalves:  All-around solid prospect, but lacks that ultimate ace "upside" that some need in a #1 prospect.  I don't know why he couldn't develop into a MadBum type, myself.  I like the baseball IQ part.  I'd suspect the walks aren't a "command" issue as much as he likes to figure out how to get guys to swing at stuff out of the zone, and sometimes he the hitters outguess him.

 

Romero:  I love the guy, but this is some serious helium.  His numbers look great, but this rating goes way beyond the stats.  

 

Kiriloff:  Why not?  Wasn't this one of those drafts with no clear top picks?  And a lot of guys picked higher because they'd sign under slot?  I think of Kiriloff as the anti-Kepler--he had the opposite type of baseball upbringing as Max.

 

Gordon:  Somehow he seems to have become controversial, among both scouts and fans.  Is it possible to be a top shortstop prospect if you don't have the power component that the greats have, or the otherworldly defense?  

 

Jay:  I'm a fan.  First year of the transition, give him an offseason to condition.  I know it is kind cherry picking, but I like how you pointed out his May--that is the type of pitcher he could be.  I like it at five.

 

Thanks Seth, great fun.

[Siehbiscuit]

Long time lurker here, but needed to log in to defend Jay. This kid has the tools and put up good numbers. Strained neck, fatigue, we don't know, but the guy is left-handed with great tools.

 

Gonsalves has excellent production, but is knocked for his lack of projection because of a good third pitch and "stuff." Jay has multiple pitches that project and has an extra three to four ticks on the heater.

 

Don't take for granted that he has to learn how to pitch and can't just reach back for his 97 mph stuff for an inning or two as he did at Illinois.

 

Having two lefties in AA ball or higher that have promise is a great thing for this organization.

[Willihammer]

What exactly is the knock on Gordon's glove?

 

If I never looked at the stats I'd have Jay and Romero ahead of Gonsalves. Both look nastier and Jay has a lot more deception. Gonsalves' stuff looks vanilla by comparison IMO. There is no denying the production though.

Edited October 7, 2016 by Willihammer

[Mr. Brooks]

Nice write up. I think we might need to pump the breaks a bit on Gonsalves. He's nice but he still probably profiles as a #3 type. I like him a lot but we might be over ranking him a bit. That said, with him, Romero and Jay in the top five, we have some impressive arms. It's unlikely that they all reach their ceiling of course but those are nice chips to have. Let's see where Jay is a year from now before we worry too much about his future role. Romero's break-out has been fun to watch. I really hope he can stay healthy. I'd probably have him #2 in front of Gonsalves.

 

I think Gordon is clearly our #1 prospect right now but I'd like to see him draw a few more walks. Kiriloff is a fun pick but far away. But his bat really could be special. He'll be fun to watch. I think he's probably our best true hitter prospect we've had since Sano.

A legit number 3, with a safe floor is a great prospect though.

And I'm talking legit 3 on a good team, like Ervin Santana, not a guy like Gibson, who people insist is a number 3, but is really a 5.

That's a lot of money you don't have to spend in FA for 6+ years.

[Deduno Abides]

That's the first report I've seen that said that about Gordon.....I'm willing to give it another year to find out.

 

I also am not as high on Jay as Seth and others. I'd have him in the 10ish range, until we see a full year of starting.

Yes, regardless of what BA says, I would much prefer that Gordon continue at shortstop and prove it one way or another while getting the most challenging plays, especially instead of moving him because of concerns that he may not stick, but then playing him at short when he gets to the majors because the incumbent 2B isn't going to be moved.

[nicksaviking]

 

Please see this week's Baseball America chat and John Manuel story regarding the top prospects in the FSL, which said Jay does not comp to Andrew Miller and Gordon is unlikely to stick at SS.

 

Judging by who often passes as MLB shortstops, I tend to think baseball pundits set a really high bar for shortstop defense with the prospects.

[Seth Stohs]

 

What exactly is the knock on Gordon's glove?

 

If I never looked at the stats I'd have Jay and Romero ahead of Gonsalves. Both look nastier and Jay has a lot more deception. Gonsalves' stuff looks vanilla by comparison IMO. There is no denying the production though.

 

Most of his errors came early, and he had a really bad week or two stretch right after the announcement of his brother's 50-game suspension. I don't want to say that this is the reason with certainty, but it has to have an effect. They're very close. 

 

Romero has the highest ceiling. 

Jay is very close... if he can be a starter., but there are questions there.

Gonsalves has very good stuff... I don't want to minimize that at all.

[clutterheart]

I guess I just need to see more from Kirilloff.  I might have him somewhere around #9.  He looks like a hacker to me.  As he advances he is going to have to start refining his approach and take more walks.  And positionly it looks like he end up as as a LF/RF/1B type.  So he is going to have to really hit.  We'll see.

 

Great list and this was fun - as usual.  thanks for putting this together

[Willihammer]

 

Most of his errors came early, and he had a really bad week or two stretch right after the announcement of his brother's 50-game suspension. I don't want to say that this is the reason with certainty, but it has to have an effect. They're very close

Yeah I'm thinking Dee's career might be biasing scouts on Nick. Routine errors were the knock on Dee but Nick has been quite a bit better by comparison, even including that run of games. Through 270 games he is right where middle of the road SSs like Marcus Semien and Xander Bogaerts were, from an errors and RF/9 standpoint anyway.

[Shane Wahl]

I probably go Gonsalves, Gordon, Jay, Romero, Kiriloff.

[Loosey]

I don't get the dislike for Gonsalves that some on this site have had for the last two years?

 

Coming out of High School he was a projected 1st round pick but fell due to some personal life question marks (which have turned out to be nothing other than he is a stand up guy with great character who stands up for his teammates) and fell to the 4th.  I don't know if his draft spot turns some off or what?

 

But, since then he has done nothing but perform extremely well at every level he has played, despite being 2-3 years younger than the competition at all his stops.

 

In my opinion he is not a 'fluke' that is just getting by.  I think he will be a very, very good starting pitcher for a long time.  He is 21 years old and has the pitch repertoire, even though it is still evolving.  And from what he might be lacking in stuff, he makes up for in smarts on the mound  I like the MadBum comp and hope it's somewhere close to that.  

 

Either way I think the Twins have a lot of starting pitching hope in the future.

 

 

[bird]

Where is this dislike of Gonsalves? What I see is a very well-reasoned spectrum of opinion on what his ceiling might be. Some, myself included, question whether projecting him as a #1-2 starter isn't overly optimistic. The other end of the spectrum seems to be a #3-4 starter, and they're looking at the same numbers, perhaps also considering opinions of professionals who have scouted him. I think the comments simply reflect an attempt to talk people down a bit from these loftier #1-2 projections that don't reconcile with his numbers when viewed in greater detail, and commenters have been pretty specific about what would need to change in order for them to agree with projecting him as ace material.

 

Where'd the MadBum comp come from? Did a pro make that comparison, or was this something that just got fired over the internet by fans?

 

If we had a bet going here with odds given, based on Seth's ranking, on which of the five delivers the most career production, I'd probably take a shot at Jay, Kiriloff, Romero, Gordon, and Gonsalves as the order. As Seth said, an argument could be made for pretty much any order with this group.

[Monkeypaws]

So Seth, Stuart Turner doesn't make your top 50?

 

Or did I just miss him?

[Seth Stohs]

 

So Seth, Stuart Turner doesn't make your top 50?

 

Or did I just miss him?

 

I would say he's out of the Top 50... or I just missed his name and he maybe should be in the low 30s range probably.

[Thrylos]

Kiriloff ahead of Jay (and a few others, notable Diaz and Javier) is madness