Article: Seth's Preliminary Top 50 Twins Prospects: Part 7 (6-10)

[Taildragger8791]

 

Well if Stewart isn't even as good as Greg Maddux, then they might as well just cut him now.

 

And just for fun, Stewart has a better ERA.

 

I was being cheeky, and I assumed you were too. I just don't see the value in comparing to all-time greats who were extremely exceptional at how they succeeded. Tons of pitchers have better raw stuff and strikeout rates than Maddux that wash out of baseball every year because they don't figure out the finer points required to have actual success.

 

Nobody ever advocated to cut him so I don't get point of that snark either. It's entirely reasonable to have doubts about a prospect while supporting him.

[bluechipper]

 

I was being cheeky, and I assumed you were too. I just don't see the value in comparing to all-time greats who were extremely exceptional at how they succeeded. Tons of pitchers have better raw stuff and strikeout rates than Maddux that wash out of baseball every year because they don't figure out the finer points required to have actual success.

 

Nobody ever advocated to cut him so I don't get point of that snark either. It's entirely reasonable to have doubts about a prospect while supporting him.

I thought me liking your post was good enough to not have to include a or a /s in my reply.

 

I just wanted to note that it is possible to have a good MLB career with poor minor league SO numbers, since quite a few people are off the Stewart bandwagon, which is pretty understandable. The 2.84 career ERA and his reported stuff is enough for me to still have high hopes for him though.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Well if Stewart isn't even as good as Greg Maddux, then they might as well just cut him now.

 

Comment of the Day winner!! Nicely done!!

[Taildragger8791]

 

I thought me liking your post was good enough to not have to include a or a /s in my reply.

 

I just wanted to note that it is possible to have a good MLB career with poor minor league SO numbers, since quite a few people are off the Stewart bandwagon, which is pretty understandable. The 2.84 career ERA and his reported stuff is enough for me to still have high hopes for him though.

 

The like didn't show up until after I got the reply, my bad.

 

It's entirely possible, he's just got a big uphill battle starting this next year to make it work. He's going to get plenty of opportunity to try. The difference is he's gone from someone we hoped to be comfortable slotting into future rotations to someone that we need to ready a backup plan for, which certainly complicates things for the 2018+ teams.

[Mr. Brooks]

I thought me liking your post was good enough to not have to include a or a /s in my reply.

 

I just wanted to note that it is possible to have a good MLB career with poor minor league SO numbers, since quite a few people are off the Stewart bandwagon, which is pretty understandable. The 2.84 career ERA and his reported stuff is enough for me to still have high hopes for him though.

It's not just the k rate though. That's why I said k AND bb rates.

If Stewart had a miniscule bb rate, like I'm guessing Maddux and most other guys who have succeeded with low k rates have had, then I'd be more optimistic.

[bluechipper]

 

It's not just the k rate though. That's why I said k AND bb rates.
If Stewart had a miniscule bb rate, like I'm guessing Maddux and most other guys who have succeeded with low k rates have had, then I'd be more optimistic.

2.7 BB/9 for Maddux compared to 3.2 BB/9 for Stewart. Stewart's was quite a bit higher this year at 3.9 though which isn't a great sign.

[bird]

So, how does Kohl Stewart compare to Mickey Mantle?

[drivlikejehu]

The simple fact is that pitchers with minor league K/BB rates like Stewart almost never pan out. Sure, there's a chance, just like there's a chance that basically any baseball player in the minor leagues (or beyond) can experience a dramatic improvement in ability and/or results. 

 

Say Slegers added 5 mph to his fastball - he'd be a great prospect! Maybe Stuart Turner will suddenly become an impact hitter - elite prospect! 

 

Sure, Stewart could magically turn into a good pitcher, but prospect rankings should be based on reasonable expectations, and it's not reasonable to expect anyone with Stewart's numbers to be a successful MLB starter. It's incredibly rare.

[Vanimal46]

We don't know if Stewart will develop into an MLB pitcher. He still has value for this organization.

 

That value may be including him in a trade for a better player. If that's the case, works for me.

[drivlikejehu]

 

We don't know if Stewart will develop into an MLB pitcher. He still has value for this organization.

That value may be including him in a trade for a better player. If that's the case, works for me.

 

There's no reason to think other MLB organizations would attach real value to him. 

[Vanimal46]

 

There's no reason to think other MLB organizations would attach real value to him. 

Not sure what you mean by real value? Teams and fans alike target top 10 organization prospects in trade proposals. He just turned 22 years old today. There's still plenty of value for Kohl Stewart today.    

[bird]

While it's certainly a red flag, I think it's premature to stick a fork in Stewart based on his MiLB K rates. It would be nice to get more descriptive observations of his performances. Is he more hittable than you'd like because he throws a lot of mistake pitches currently? Does his slider come in a little flat? Are they laying off an offering that he struggles to throw across the plate? Is he still needing to perfect a particular pitch?

 

Perhaps the scouts still like him because they see correctable issues rather than indications of physical limitations. Maybe Falvey's experiences will translate into some worthwhile discoveries for guys like Stewart. Let's hope so.

[drivlikejehu]

 

Not sure what you mean by real value? Teams and fans alike target top 10 organization prospects in trade proposals. He just turned 22 years old today. There's still plenty of value for Kohl Stewart today.    

 

Stewart is borderline top 10 at best in an org that has just graduated a bunch of prospects. He's a clear step down from Adelberto Mejia, who was worth Eduardo Nunez. So, at best, Stewart could acquire a player one step down from Eduardo Nunez, or a prospect of similarly limited value. And a lot of orgs probably have Stewart much lower than even that.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Stewart is borderline top 10 at best in an org that has just graduated a bunch of prospects. He's a clear step down from Adelberto Mejia, who was worth Eduardo Nunez. So, at best, Stewart could acquire a player one step down from Eduardo Nunez, or a prospect of similarly limited value. And a lot of orgs probably have Stewart much lower than even that.

 

You couldn't be more wrong, imo.

 

How do you know how other orgs rate Stewart? Really?

[operation mindcrime]

So, how does Kohl Stewart compare to Mickey Mantle?

When it comes to drinking I'd think Kohl's tolerance level is quite a bit lower! \m/

[Willihammer]

Stewart is borderline top 10 at best in an org that has just graduated a bunch of prospects. He's a clear step down from Adelberto Mejia, who was worth Eduardo Nunez. So, at best, Stewart could acquire a player one step down from Eduardo Nunez, or a prospect of similarly limited value. And a lot of orgs probably have Stewart much lower than even that.

I think you're in the ballpark with Mejia but to be fair he was a mid-season trade, from a team in the wild card race. That may have skewed the price in the Twins favor.

 

I appreciate any attempt to assign net present value to prospects. Fans grow so attached to them but when you look at actual trades, including offseason trades, its pretty clear that GMs don't attach as much value as fans do, generally.

[drivlikejehu]

 

I think you're in the ballpark with Mejia but to be fair he was a mid-season trade, from a team in the wild card race. That may have skewed the price in the Twins favor.

I appreciate any attempt to assign net present value to prospects. Fans grow so attached to them but when you look at actual trades, including offseason trades, its pretty clear that GMs don't attach as much value as fans do, generally.

 

I honestly struggle to see how Stewart could really be part of any trade at this point. The incentives are out of whack . . . what GM wants to give up something for a guy with such performance-related red flags? Even if that org's scouts like Stewart, no one wants to be in the position of assuming all that is a mirage. If Stewart never pans out (which is by far the most likely outcome), that GM looks like an idiot. Clubs take on risky bets like that when the cost is very low.

 

And from the Twins' perspective, they drafted him very high and wouldn't want to deal him for a realistic return (i.e., a minimal return). So both sides of a potential negotiation are better off just leaving a guy like Stewart out of it.

 

A couple more years of mediocrity though and he'll be a perfect "change of scenery" throw in.

 

Edited October 7, 2016 by drivlikejehu

[Willihammer]

I honestly struggle to see how Stewart could really be part of any trade at this point. The incentives are out of whack . . . what GM wants to give up something for a guy with such performance-related red flags? Even if that org's scouts like Stewart, no one wants to be in the position of assuming all that is a mirage. If Stewart never pans out (which is by far the most likely outcome), that GM looks like an idiot. Clubs take on risky bets like that when the cost is very low.

 

And from the Twins' perspective, they drafted him very high and wouldn't want to deal him for a realistic return (i.e., a minimal return). So both sides of a potential negotiation are better off just leaving a guy like Stewart out of it.

 

A couple more years of mediocrity though and he'll be a perfect "change of scenery" throw in.

Well Falvey didn't draft him. Maybe a new VP who isn't personally invested in Stewart would be willing to move him for a fair price.

There are a big and growing red flags with Stewart's peripherals but at the same time when have we had a prospect whose stats have so badly mismatched the scouting reports? 94-95, plus slider, decent command. That guy should be striking out A ball hitters at a higher rate. Is he being failed by the Twins minor leagues somehow? Are the reports just false? Something doesn't add up.

Edited October 8, 2016 by Willihammer

[drivlikejehu]

 

Well Falvey didn't draft him. Maybe a new VP who isn't personally invested in Stewart would be willing to move him for a fair price.
There are a big and growing red flags with Stewart's peripherals but at the same time when have we had a prospect whose stats have so badly mismatched the scouting reports? 94-95, plus slider, decent command. That guy should be striking out A ball hitters at a higher rate. Is he being failed by the Twins minor leagues somehow? Are the reports just false? Something doesn't add up.

 

Is that really Stewart's stuff though? Minor league velocities tend to be exaggerated, and there's been back and forth in the past about how effective his slider really is. I've read comments to the effect that he is sitting 90-92 with 3 OK secondary pitches, making him basically a junkballer without command.

 

I haven't scouted him, but you're right that something doesn't add up, and the obvious explanation is that his numbers reflect the mediocre quality and location of his pitches.