Article: Seth's Preliminary Top 50 Twins Prospects: Part 7 (6-10)

[Seth Stohs]

We continue to look at and recognize Minnesota Twins prospects. We've already discussed Twins prospects 50 through 11. Today, we enter our Top 10 Twins prospects with my choices for prospects 6 through 10.

 

Again, we’ve got a wide range of prospect here. We have a left-handed pitcher who is very nearly MLB ready. We’ve got a former top pick who has created a lot of discussion as there is still upside, but there are also question marks. And there are a few very young hitters with the world of potential with a long trek still to make before reaching the big leagues. The ceilings are high. The question marks are many.

 

If you've missed any of the previous installments, check them out here:

 

Part 1 (41-50)

Part 2 (31-40)

Part 3 (26-30)

Part 4 (21-25)

Part 5 (16-20)

Part 6 (11-15)

And then feel free to join the conversation. Ask questions, start thinking about your personal Top 30 or Top 50 list. When this list is done, hopefully you’ll post yours, either in the comments, or in a Blog post.Players eligible to be on this list include players who remain eligible for Rookie of the Year voting in 2017. That is to say, hitters with less than 130 at-bats and pitchers with less than 50 innings. (The list is preliminary. Following research for the Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook 2017 - which Cody Christie, Jeremy Nygaard and I are working on - I’ll provide my final Top 30 prospects list.)

 

Top Prospects 6-10

 

#10 – Kohl Stewart - 21 – RHP – Ft. Myers Miracle/Chattanooga Lookouts

 

I list Stewart at 21 years of age, but on Friday he will turn 22. The Twins top pick in the 2013 draft (fourth overall), Stewart has certainly pitched well despite a glaring lack of strikeouts. In 2015, he posted a 3.20 ERA in Ft. Myers. In 143.2 innings, he walked 63 (3.1 K/9) but struck out just 91 (4.9 K/9). Because of it, he remained in Ft. Myers for nine starts at the beginning of the 2016 season. He went 3-2 with a 2.61 ERA in 51.2 innings. He walked 19 (3.3 K/9) and struck out 44 (a solid 7.7 K/9). He moved up to Chattanooga and certainly experienced some ups and downs. He went 9-6 with a 3.03 ERA in 16 starts. However, in 92 innings, he walked 44 (4.3 BB/9) and struck out just 47 (4.6 K/9). It remains confusing as Stewart has good stuff. He’s got a fastball that reached to 94-95. He’s got a good slider. He’s got a good change-up. He needs to be more consistent with them, but the stuff is good. The Twins have certainly pushed Stewart along quickly relative to his league dominance. Talking to scouts, you’ll get two very different beliefs in what his ceiling is and likelihood to get there. But if a 21-year-old posts a 3.03 ERA in the AA Southern League despite the lack of strikeouts, he needs to remain in top prospect discussions.

 

#9 – Adalberto Mejia - 23 – LHP – Rochester Red Wings/Minnesota Twins

 

Mejia was signed by the Giants in 2010. He gradually moved his way up the ladder. Following a strong 2014 season, Baseball Prospectus named him the #86 prospect in baseball. Unfortunately, he was suspended 50 games for PEDs. Upon his return, he threw 51.1 innings in AA Richmond, 31 innings in the Arizona Fall League and 18 more innings in the Dominican Winter League. 100 innings total. That’s why the Twins shut him down in early September at 134.1 innings this year. His season began in AA Richmond where he posted a 1.94 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP in 11 starts. He went 4-1 in AAA Sacramento. Baseball America put him near the bottom of their midseason Top 100 list. On July 28, the Twins acquired him from the Giants in exchange for Eduardo Nunez. He made four starts in Rochester, and he was called up for one day to the Twins. He gave up two runs in 2.1 innings out of the bullpen. Overall in 2016, he walked just 2.0 per nine innings. The lefty struck out a very solid 8.6 per nine innings. At 6-3, he weighs about 220 pounds. He works in the 91 to 93 mph range and is capable of hitting 94. He’s got a good change-up in the low-to-mid 90s. He also has a good slider in the mid-80s. A left-hander who is just 23 and has three potential above-average pitches who has had some AAA success, Mejia could factor into the Twins starting rotation at some point in the 2017 season.

 

#8 – Wander Javier - 17 – SS – DSL Twins

 

On July 2, 2015, the Twins signed Javier to a $4 million signing bonus. It covered their entire allotment for the international signing period. Javier looks the part of a shortstop. He’s 6-0 and 175 pounds. He is a good athlete with very good speed. He has a big arm and a generally good feel for the position. He has a lot of power potential as well. The one concern about him offensively appears to be his ability to square up the ball at times. He began his playing career this season in the Dominican Summer League. The plan was for him to spend the full season there. He got off to a good start. Unfortunately, after seven games he pulled his hamstring. He missed 16 games before he came back in late June. In his second game back, he re-aggravated the same injury and missed the rest of the season. It was good to see that he did come to Ft. Myers to participate in the Instructional League. He didn’t play much, but he was a full participant most of the time in practices. He’ll most likely come to the States in 2017 for extended spring training and play for the GCL Twins. He (and this ranking) are based solely on ceiling, potential and upside, but his road to the big leagues will take time. If the Twins rush him, he could be in the big leagues in 2020, but that would be very aggressive.

 

#7 – Travis Blankenhorn - 20 – 2B – Elizabethton Twins/Cedar Rapids Kernels

 

Blankenhorn was the Twins third-round pick in 2015 out of high school in Pennsylvania. He split the 2015 short-season between the GCL (14 games) and Elizabethton (39 games). In spring training, he was moved from third base to second base. He was also struggling with the bat early in the year too, so he stayed in extended spring training. He returned to Tennessee for the start of the Elizabethton season. In 34 games, he hit .297/.342/.558 (.900) with seven doubles, a triple, nine home runs and 29 RBI. He moved up to Cedar Rapids where he hit .286/.356/.418 (.774) with five doubles, two triples and a homer in 25 games. He did a nice job for the Kernels in the playoffs as well, hitting .350. Defense is where the question marks are for Blankenhorn. He did a solid job at second base, though his range is lacking in large part due to needing more reps. Of the 40 total games he didn’t DH, he played second base in 37 of them, with three games played at third base. Blankenhorn is a good athlete, and he is very strong. He has slightly above average speed. He won’t turn 21 until next August.

 

#6 – Lewin Diaz - 19 – 1B – Elizabethton Twins

 

Diaz was the Twins big international free agent signing in the 2013 international signing period. That can be taken two ways. He signed a big signing bonus for $1.4 million. At 6-3, 260 pounds, he is a rather big man. At the time, his body type was compared to that of David Ortiz and Ryan Howard. So, while he played some in the outfield as a 14-15 year old, he was destined for a career at first base and maybe DH. He began his career with a summer in the DSL. In 2015, he came to the States and split time between the GCL and Elizabethton. In 33 games in the GCL, he hit .261/.354/.369 (.724) with seven doubles, a triple and a home run. He moved up to Elizabethton for the final 14 games. He hit just .167, but three of his eight hits were home runs. In 2016, he busted out. In 46 games in Elizabethon, he hit .310/.353/.575 (.928) with 15 doubles, two triples and nine home runs. Obviously his ceiling would involve hitting a lot of home runs, but he is more than just a power hitter with the bat. He could potentially hit for average as well. If things come together well for him, he could become an elite hitter.

 

 

So there you have it, my choices for Twins prospects 6-10. We’ll be back tomorrow with Part 8, the Top Five Prospects of the Minnesota Twins.

 

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[roger]

Did you struggle with the decision to include Stewart in the Top 10? Expect we would look at him different had he been a 4th round pick. But he wasn't, he was #4 overall. So I expect more from him and see his career as a big disappointment.

 

Maybe my concern should be with the scouts that made the decision to take him that high. On the other hand, should the soon to be named General Manager decide to include him in a package for that front line starter, hopefully the General Manager on the other side of that deal focuses on his being #4 overall and reads your site!

 

Have a great day, Seth.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Didn't Jeremy Nygaard say that he has talked to scouts who still say Stewart is the best prospect in the rotation at AA (that included Gonsalves and Jay?) I know the stats/numbers don't back it up, but if he is still throwing mid 90's, that is still a solid prospect, no?

Thanks for doing these lists! I really appreciate it.

[Dman]

I was extremely low on the Diaz pick when they got him, so nice to see that he is doing well.  Seemed like a lot of money and a risky bet to go for someone who was basically all bat, but i guess if it is a special bat then maybe it will be worth it.  Time will tell but nice to see him proving my assumptions wrong.

[nytwinsfan]

How come Chargois is no longer a prospect? I'm pretty sure he's only pitched 23 major league innings, which is under your 50 inning limit.

[Han Joelo]

Re: Chargois--I say limits be damned in his case.  I feel like he has graduated.  He may not be quite a finished product, but who is?

 

As far as Stewart, no, he wouldn't be the number 10 prospect if he had been a 4th round pick.  But Javier wouldn't be the #8 if he'd signed for a $100,000 bonus, either, would he?  He'd be Jermaine Palacios two years ago, in the 40's tops.  Scouting pedigrees count for something.

[Mike Sixel]

Still not on the Diaz bandwagon for being that high, he was obviously much better this year, but I am still very much Missouri on this one. I just can't see it, as much as I can see Garver. Also, Blankenthorn had a nice season, but I am not as convinced on him as I am on Garver. Two more names I'd have below him.

 

As for Stewart, he's 22, in AA, and posted a nice ERA. While ERA is not the greatest stat, it should not be totally ignored. To me, he took a nice step this year, and I expect the Ks to increase by 1-1.5 per start next year, and for him to be in the Twins rotation in 17 or 18. Until he actually fails, I see no reason to doubt he will succeed at some level.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Re: Chargois--I say limits be damned in his case.  I feel like he has graduated.  He may not be quite a finished product, but who is?

 

As far as Stewart, no, he wouldn't be the number 10 prospect if he had been a 4th round pick.  But Javier wouldn't be the #8 if he'd signed for a $100,000 bonus, either, would he?  He'd be Jermaine Palacios two years ago, in the 40's tops.  Scouting pedigrees count for something.

 

He pitched in AA in his age 21 season, and was good, not great, at limiting runs given up. I think people are underestimating Stewart. I understand why....

[Seth Stohs]

 

How come Chargois is no longer a prospect? I'm pretty sure he's only pitched 23 major league innings, which is under your 50 inning limit.

 

He's going to be real close to the borderline for days of service.

[big dog]

I value people's thoughts on Stewart, and he certainly has a chance to do very well.  But when I read his writeup and then immediately read Mejia's, I think hmmmm.... #9 sounds like a lot better bet than #10.  I think the Nunez trade is going to look really good for the Twins in a year or two.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I value people's thoughts on Stewart, and he certainly has a chance to do very well.  But when I read his writeup and then immediately read Mejia's, I think hmmmm.... #9 sounds like a lot better bet than #10.  I think the Nunez trade is going to look really good for the Twins in a year or two.

 

It was a very good trade. 

[SarasotaBill]

I would have the order:

6. Mejia  (AA & AAA production)

7. Stewart  (very good ERA but BB/K needs improvement)

8. Javier  (potential)

9. Blankenhorn  (2B defensive concerns & lower level)

10. Diaz  (DH/1B & lower level)

 

After QB in football, starting pitching is the most important position (See Giants). 

[gunnarthor]

On Stewart, I wonder if a workable comp for him becomes Mike Pelfrey.  Pelfrey could hit 94-95 and got a lot of ground balls - although Stewart seems to be better at that.  Pelfrey was never a big strike out guy but did turn in a nice enough 10+ year ML career.  They can't all turn into all-stars but if Stewart can be a slightly healthier, slightly better Pelfrey, that's not that bad.  He's been pretty durable so far.

 

I've said it a lot but I really liked the Blankenhorn/Cabbage picks and while Cabbage is lagging, Blankenhorn is doing very well. I think, for all the griping we do about our scouts, they've found some nice young players these last few years and/or Steil's changes in the farm have really helped.  

 

Javier is probably a bit too high but I like him.  He's just too raw to be a top 10 guy right now.  I'm probably a bit more conservative on Diaz, too.  Maybe should be in the 10-15 range for now.  To make it to the bigs, he's going to have to be an elite bat and he needs to work on plate discipline a bit.  But the Twins do have some power in the minors.  That's always fun.

 

Why wasn't Mejia brought up in Sept?  Was he hurt?  Seems like a good place in the rankings for him and it was a solid trade.  Hopefully he can provide us with some stability in the rotation next year.

[drivlikejehu]

The problem with Stewart is that guys who don't strike out minor leaguers basically never succeed in the Majors. I'm not a scout, but I don't see how Stewart can be considered as anything other than a long-shot. I'd have him in the 15-20 range. 

 

I like Diaz, but would have him around 5 spots lower due to his complete lack of defensive value.

[Mike Sixel]

 

The problem with Stewart is that guys who don't strike out minor leaguers basically never succeed in the Majors. I'm not a scout, but I don't see how Stewart can be considered as anything other than a long-shot. I'd have him in the 15-20 range. 

 

I like Diaz, but would have him around 5 spots lower due to his complete lack of defensive value.

 

he's 21...in AA....I think he has a bit of time...I still can't find a scout that doesn't like his stuff.

 

Agreed on Diaz. he is either an elite hitter, or he's not in the majors.

[Brandon]

On the plus side we have lots of starting pitching options on the way that could make the Twins at some point next season. Barrios, May, and Duffy and Gibson as the current home grown pitchers and Mejia, Jay, Gonsalves, Stewart and I forgot the other.... and for 2018 Thorpe could be up......

[Taildragger8791]

 

he's 21...in AA....I think he has a bit of time...I still can't find a scout that doesn't like his stuff.

 

Agreed on Diaz. he is either an elite hitter, or he's not in the majors.

 

I don't know if being 21 is an excuse for having a track record of low strikeout rates. Strikeouts at those lower levels are achievable largely on stuff alone. By far his best K rate above rookie ball was 7.6/9 when he repeated high-A this year, and otherwise has rates of 4.6/9 (AA), 5.0 (High A last year), and 6.4 (Low A last year). Those are remarkably low for someone who scouts think has such good stuff, so I don't know what to make of him.

 

Is it sustainable to rely on inducing poor contact against major league hitters? The Gibson/Pelfrey comps make sense but those guys still had managed decent strikeout rates in the minors. How many MLB pitchers thrive with a K/9 below 6.0?

[Taildragger8791]

 

On the plus side we have lots of starting pitching options on the way that could make the Twins at some point next season. Barrios, May, and Duffy and Gibson as the current home grown pitchers and Mejia, Jay, Gonsalves, Stewart and I forgot the other.... and for 2018 Thorpe could be up......

 

Berrios and Gonsalves are the only pitchers in that list that are intriguing to me for next year. May, Duffey, Gibson, Stewart, and Mejia are lottery tickets to even be serviceable. We're going to go through a lot of pain next year while we figure out who can play but hopefully it'll set up a somewhat established rotation and bullpen for 2018.

 

Jay needs another full year of development and building innings, but he has real promise with his stuff. Looking forward to seeing how him and Thorpe recover from their injuries and develop next year.

[Thrylos]

I'd like to see what a new mindset in the organization regarding pitching will do for pitchers like Stewart (and others.)   That said, I'd have a hard time ranking him above Jorge who was much better than him at Fort Myers and probably at least equal in Chattanooga.   His ball rate was a bit alarming at AA.  For some reason, save Gonsalves, all starters in Chatanooga had below average K-rates and this might be a reflection to the pitching staff there and/or game planning.  Artaega's highest level ever, and not unlikely that he is over his head... 

[diehardtwinsfan]

so if Mejia has a changeup in the low to mid 90s, that means he's throwing his FB around 110, right? 

 

Stewart is an enigma.  We all knew he would take time to develop, so on that you have to expect some downs to go with the ups.  The fact that he's still difficult to hit in AA at 21 is impressive, but that K rate... ouch...  Then again, he had a nice bump in that in A+ this season, so perhaps we see a similar step forward.  I wouldn't count on Kohl for 2017, perhaps not even 2018, but I certainly wouldn't write him off.  There's still tremendous upside there, though at some point, the odds of hitting it start to drop.

[Loosey]

In regards to Stewart and Twins pitching development in general:

 

Obviously in the past the Twins had tried really hard at finding "safe" pitchers who threw strikes and kept the ball down in the zone and in the park (pitch to contact period).  They did a fine job at developing those pitchers and got the most out of them they could and most had their greatest success with the Twins.  Now that they are developing pitchers with a different pitching style than in the past, more power arms with arguably less control they aren't developing into major league quality yet.

 

Do they still have the same pitching instructors, coaches and using the same teaching techniques with this new pitchers?  Perhaps someone like Stewart needs a fresh outlook from a new pitching staff coach to teach him how to harness his mid 90's fastball.  The same could be said across the board, I also could be wasting my time writing this if they have different instructors than they did 7-8 years ago.  If not, Falvey seems to have had some success developing a nice staff, maybe he can help find the right coaches to get our 4 AA starters (Gonsalves, Jay, Stewart, Jorge) to develop into good Major Leaguers.

[Loosey]

 

I'd like to see what a new mindset in the organization regarding pitching will do for pitchers like Stewart (and others.)   That said, I'd have a hard time ranking him above Jorge who was much better than him at Fort Myers and probably at least equal in Chattanooga.   His ball rate was a bit alarming at AA.  For some reason, save Gonsalves, all starters in Chatanooga had below average K-rates and this might be a reflection to the pitching staff there and/or game planning.  Artaega's highest level ever, and not unlikely that he is over his head... 

I just wrote the same thing, but i wrote mine in the form of a question.

[Mr. Brooks]

I'd have a hard time putting Stewart in the top 25 at this point.

I mean look at those k and bb rates, this year especially.

Has anyone ever, and I mean ever, put up numbers like that in the minors then succeeded in MLB? It can't be many if any.

[T_J]

I'm really hoping the new executive can work some magic with Stewart. I think he should be a big benefit to his career or he can flip him for something.

 

Diaz is going to be an amazing hitter. Yeah, he is going to be an all bat prospect, but that bat will play.

 

Gonslave, Gordon, Romero, Jay, and Kirilloff in that order than? That is a really nice top five. I would swap Diaz and Kirilloff but a very nice looking lot.

[Willihammer]

The Twins sure have depth at 2B. Dozier, Polanco, Arraez, Blankenhorn, am I forgetting anyone?

Edited October 6, 2016 by Willihammer

[markos]

 

I'd have a hard time putting Stewart in the top 25 at this point.
I mean look at those k and bb rates, this year especially.
Has anyone ever, and I mean ever, put up numbers like that in the minors then succeeded in MLB? It can't be many if any.

There are a few. It is hard to go back and compare against different eras, but guys like Jake Westbrook, Doug Fister and Tanner Roark all found success with below-average minor league strikeout rates. Sonny Gray (in his limited minor league career) also struggled. So it definitely isn't a death sentence, especially since it sounds like his stuff is more or less still intact from high school. 

 

I've been very low on Stewart for a years now, but I have to admit that there were some encouraging signs this year. First and foremost, he stayed healthy and threw almost 150 innings. Considering that so much of the battle for HS pitchers is staying healthy, this is an encouraging sign. Second, he did show improvement when repeating A+. Third, he continued to limit homers and get ground balls in AA. I wasn't sure how much of that was a product of the suppressed offensive environment in the Florida State League, so it was nice to see that continue at AA.

 

All in all, I think signs are now stronger that he will contribute at some level in the big leagues. His ceiling is still low - certainly lower than you would expect with a #4 pick.

[bluechipper]

 

I'd have a hard time putting Stewart in the top 25 at this point.
I mean look at those k and bb rates, this year especially.
Has anyone ever, and I mean ever, put up numbers like that in the minors then succeeded in MLB? It can't be many if any.

Kohl Stewart has a higher minor league K/9 than Greg Maddux.

[Taildragger8791]

 

Kohl Stewart has a higher minor league K/9 than Greg Maddux.

 

And worse BB/9, H/9, BB/K, and way less innings per start.

[bluechipper]

 

And worse BB/9, H/9, BB/K, and way less innings per start.

Well if Stewart isn't even as good as Greg Maddux, then they might as well just cut him now.

 

And just for fun, Stewart has a better ERA.

[gunnarthor]

Maddux was also in AAA at 20 ....