2016-2017 Wolves season

[kab21]

 

Since when did that kind of logic enter into NBA trades?

It is like fantasizing about Twins trades. You know and I know that player X isn't very good but this opposing GM will value him like the 2013 BA prospect ranking that he once had.

 

Guess what? If you know something then so do the GM's.

[TheLeviathan]

 

It is like fantasizing about Twins trades. You know and I know that player X isn't very good but this opposing GM will value him like the 2013 BA prospect ranking that he once had.

 

Guess what? If you know something then so do the GM's.

 

I don't disagree, but in the NBA trades happen far more often where established assets are dealt for known piles of risk.   Both sides can know all the warts about Dunn, Lavine, and the pick and what I'm saying can still be true.  

 

The NBA operates on a totally different playing field.

[kab21]

 

I don't disagree, but in the NBA trades happen far more often where established assets are dealt for known piles of risk.   Both sides can know all the warts about Dunn, Lavine, and the pick and what I'm saying can still be true.  

 

The NBA operates on a totally different playing field.

Except when your target is Paul George or Jimmy Butler (the names you mentioned). Aside from the Boogie trade, teams want a top piece back (top 3 or higher pick) or someone with elite potential. That is the problem here. You are trying to make a quantity trade by putting in any (and pretty much every) somewhat valuable asset the Wolves have.

Yes, these trades happen but they are somewhat rare. The Wolves more likely can pick up a player at the level of Tyreke Evans, Demarre Carroll or Trevor Ariza without giving up a top asset (or in FA) to create a dynamic 3 player wing rotation. Don't get attached to those names in particular but rather the pretty good NBA player level that they are at. Those guys might not be good fits on this particular team and/or available.

 

The Wolves don't really need to add a star to this roster. They need to add depth in the #3-#8 options. Rubio, Dieng and Lavine are legitimately good players (maybe not all together) but they need to decide if Dunn, Jones and Bjelica are really 20+ min/night players. And they need to find a way to keep the Rush's and Bazz's out of the rotation.

[kab21]

Now we are starting to see where the loss of Lavine (and later Bjelica) hurts this team. This team has no depth at all. They don't necessarily need Lavine to be starting but they must avoid getting 40+ min/game from Rush/Bazz/Casspi.

It will be interesting to see if they can add a solid wing in FA this summer. This player is sorely needed.

On a slightly related note - Is this the year that Shabazz becomes a RFA? Do you even consider matching a multi-year off if the Wolves don't already have a wing locked up. Bazz isn't that great but things can get worse for the 2nd team.

[bluechipper]

I think we've all lost interest in discussing the Wolves for now, but last night's comeback in Indiana was fun. KAT was great, as usual, and Ricky continued playing really well too, including 3 clutch free throws to go up by 1 with 3 seconds left.

[bluechipper]

Rubio continues to play extremely well with a career high 33 points tonight in their win against the Lakers.

[ashbury]

This team seems to be less than the sum of its parts.

[ALessKosherScott]

I wouldn't mind losing a few more. Drafting sixth is going to give you a few more non-point guard options than drafting eight.

[kab21]

 

I wouldn't mind losing a few more. Drafting sixth is going to give you a few more non-point guard options than drafting eight.

 

5/6 games are against playoff teams so they don't finish with a particularly easy schedule.

 

This team seems to be less than the sum of its parts.

This shouldn't be surprising. They play two small-ish wings that can't guard larger wings and they play two centers. And they have nearly no bench. Hopefully they can get one piece in the draft and one in FA that can bolster their top 8/9 rotation of players. It is likely that the drafted player won't immediately be a factor but possibly the following season.

[bluechipper]

Towns and Wiggins both had 40 point games, and the Wolves still lost to the Lakers on a buzzer beater tonight. Just 2 points from the starting backcourt.

[ashbury]

The Lakers!

[ALessKosherScott]

I think the next question now is who are you rooting for as a draft pick: Tatum, Isaac or Markkanen? 

[bluechipper]

 

I think the next question now is who are you rooting for as a draft pick: Tatum, Isaac or Markkanen? 

Probably Markkanen at this point. He adds shooting and a really high upside. I've liked Miles Bridges for a long time too.

 

How about you?

[caninatl04]

There are several very fundamental questions that need to be answered before we can even think about the above.

 

Here are a handful:

 

1. Is Kat a "5" or a "4"?
   • I think his body type plays much better as a Tim(my!) Duncan 4 and could have equally stellar career.
   • If a "4" then the team needs a large Eastern European 7' 2" 320 pounder.  Yes, we have a well-paid one on the roster (Pek), but apparently one needs feet to play this game.
2. Is Wiggins a "3" or a "2"?
   • His much vaunted defense has not (yet?) materialized.  Maybe a switch to smaller "2"'s would help. And if he is moved to "2"
3. Although Zach LaVine's offense may make him a next generation "human highlight reel" (with respect to Dominique Wilkens), just about every advanced metric suggests his (complete) lack of defense makes him a net liability.
   • Had he not been injured he would have made a perfect trading chip.
   • Might he be a third guard on the depth chart?
   • Might he be a mid-season trade chip?
   • Will Tibs put up with another poor defender?
4. Chris Dunn?  I mean, Chris Dunn?  I would have though that he would get a lot of floor time once the playoff dream vanished.
   • Maybe Rubio's extended time was valuable to prove that his March performance was an outlier and not a trend (see also: "Buxton, Byron, September 2016 versus April 2017").
5. For me, one of the biggest disappointment was Cole Aldrich.  I know he was hired to be a "poor man's" Hassan Whiteside, but it turns out the figurative "man" was really, really poor.  Like, Alabama poor.

From 20,000 feet, a good team need 8 players.  Three stars and five "good" players.  Ideally, these three stars would be distributed as one 4 or 5, one wing and one (point) guard.  Of course there are exceptions, but this is a good distribution to start.  The next five would be distributed as:

• two 4 or 5's,
• two wings and
• a second point guard.

 

The next five on the roster would be one per position and, from all analyses, would not make more than 1 or 2 games a year difference.

 

Of the 8 key players, the Wolves have:

 

1 star in the "4 or 5"     Check!

1 star wing                   Check!

 

1 star (point) guard      gulp

 

Next five:

 

•two 4 or 5's,                1 out of two with Deng
•two wings                    1 out of two with LaVine
•a second point guard.  check!  Actually, more than one "second point guard"

 

So, of these eight key players, the Wolves have five. 

 

Under my scenario, their shopping list has three items:

 

1. Border-line all star point guard,
2. Starter quality "5" (if Kat moved to "4")
3. 3 and D wing.

Thoughts?

 

[bluechipper]

There are several very fundamental questions that need to be answered before we can even think about the above.

 

Here are a handful:

 

 

• Is Kat a "5" or a "4"?
  • I think his body type plays much better as a Tim(my!) Duncan 4 and could have equally stellar career.
  • If a "4" then the team needs a large Eastern European 7' 2" 320 pounder.  Yes, we have a well-paid one on the roster (Pek), but apparently one needs feet to play this game.
• Is Wiggins a "3" or a "2"?
  • His much vaunted defense has not (yet?) materialized.  Maybe a switch to smaller "2"'s would help. And if he is moved to "2"
• Although Zach LaVine's offense may make him a next generation "human highlight reel" (with respect to Dominique Wilkens), just about every advanced metric suggests his (complete) lack of defense makes him a net liability.
  • Had he not been injured he would have made a perfect trading chip.
  • Might he be a third guard on the depth chart?
  • Might he be a mid-season trade chip?
  • Will Tibs put up with another poor defender?
• Chris Dunn?  I mean, Chris Dunn?  I would have though that he would get a lot of floor time once the playoff dream vanished.
  • Maybe Rubio's extended time was valuable to prove that his March performance was an outlier and not a trend (see also: "Buxton, Byron, September 2016 versus April 2017").
• For me, one of the biggest disappointment was Cole Aldrich.  I know he was hired to be a "poor man's" Hassan Whiteside, but it turns out the figurative "man" was really, really poor.  Like, Alabama poor.

From 20,000 feet, a good team need 8 players.  Three stars and five "good" players.  Ideally, these three stars would be distributed as one 4 or 5, one wing and one (point) guard.  Of course there are exceptions, but this is a good distribution to start.  The next five would be distributed as:

• two 4 or 5's,
• two wings and
• a second point guard.

 

The next five on the roster would be one per position and, from all analyses, would not make more than 1 or 2 games a year difference.

 

Of the 8 key players, the Wolves have:

 

1 star in the "4 or 5"     Check!

1 star wing                   Check!

 

1 star (point) guard      gulp

 

Next five:

 

•two 4 or 5's,                1 out of two with Deng

•two wings                    1 out of two with LaVine

•a second point guard.  check!  Actually, more than one "second point guard"

 

So, of these eight key players, the Wolves have five. 

 

Under my scenario, their shopping list has three items:

 

• Border-line all star point guard,
• Starter quality "5" (if Kat moved to "4")
• 3 and D wing.

Thoughts?

I'm going to have to totally disagree with the first two points. Rubio is a solid starting pg, and KAT is a 5. A bigger wing and another 4 are the biggest needs for me.

[TheLeviathan]

Two versatile defenders at the 3 and 4.  That's what this team needs.

[ALessKosherScott]

 

Probably Markkanen at this point. He adds shooting and a really high upside. I've liked Miles Bridges for a long time too.

 

How about you?

 

I think it comes down to what you're looking for.

 

If it's the best possible shooter with little to no concern about defense, then Markkanen is your guy. And I think Dirk is a pretty good description of Markkanen's upside. A Love-esq three point shooter with Rubio and Towns running the pick and pop and Wiggins and Lavine is practically unguardable. But for some reason I can't see Thibs being unconcerned about his lack of defense.

 

Isaac is your "I'm concerned about defense" pick but right now he's power forward sized length wise but not width-wise. With that said, he's not Markkanen but he can shoot it, too. You're hoping he can be a Serge Ibaka in two years. But you're still looking down the road with him, and where Markkanen or Tatum can probably run with the 1s more next year Isaac probably spends more time with the twos.

 

Tatum (or Jackson if you finish in the top three) is your Wiggins to shooting guard hero. And there's something to be said for that. He may not start over Lavine initially. But he lets you create another look with your wings when you need a bigger body with Lavine or Wiggins at shooting guard.

 

It also wouldn't surprise me if Thibs was eyeing a later pick to grab Bridges and another guy like Thornwell or Jordan Bell. 

 

 

[Pardon My Dinger]

There are several very fundamental questions that need to be answered before we can even think about the above.

 

Here are a handful:

 

• Is Kat a "5" or a "4"?
  • I think his body type plays much better as a Tim(my!) Duncan 4 and could have equally stellar career.
  • If a "4" then the team needs a large Eastern European 7' 2" 320 pounder. Yes, we have a well-paid one on the roster (Pek), but apparently one needs feet to play this game.
• Is Wiggins a "3" or a "2"?
  • His much vaunted defense has not (yet?) materialized. Maybe a switch to smaller "2"'s would help. And if he is moved to "2"
• Although Zach LaVine's offense may make him a next generation "human highlight reel" (with respect to Dominique Wilkens), just about every advanced metric suggests his (complete) lack of defense makes him a net liability.
  • Had he not been injured he would have made a perfect trading chip.
  • Might he be a third guard on the depth chart?
  • Might he be a mid-season trade chip?
  • Will Tibs put up with another poor defender?
• Chris Dunn? I mean, Chris Dunn? I would have though that he would get a lot of floor time once the playoff dream vanished.
  • Maybe Rubio's extended time was valuable to prove that his March performance was an outlier and not a trend (see also: "Buxton, Byron, September 2016 versus April 2017").
• For me, one of the biggest disappointment was Cole Aldrich. I know he was hired to be a "poor man's" Hassan Whiteside, but it turns out the figurative "man" was really, really poor. Like, Alabama poor.

From 20,000 feet, a good team need 8 players. Three stars and five "good" players. Ideally, these three stars would be distributed as one 4 or 5, one wing and one (point) guard. Of course there are exceptions, but this is a good distribution to start. The next five would be distributed as:

• two 4 or 5's,
• two wings and
• a second point guard.

The next five on the roster would be one per position and, from all analyses, would not make more than 1 or 2 games a year difference.

 

Of the 8 key players, the Wolves have:

 

1 star in the "4 or 5" Check!

1 star wing Check!

 

1 star (point) guard gulp

 

Next five:

 

•two 4 or 5's, 1 out of two with Deng

•two wings 1 out of two with LaVine

•a second point guard. check! Actually, more than one "second point guard"

 

So, of these eight key players, the Wolves have five.

 

Under my scenario, their shopping list has three items:

• Border-line all star point guard,
• Starter quality "5" (if Kat moved to "4")
• 3 and D wing.

Thoughts?

First of all, great post!

 

Second, I think KAT's a 4. And that's based on his inability to handle rough and tumble centers defensively. Team needs a true center.

 

Third, Rubio in my opinion, not only is our answer at PG, but he could be our third star. Call me crazy, I don't care.

 

Finally, I think we need to leverage Zach for an elite defending wing. Gotta have that to make the whole machine work. I love LaVine. Love him! But this team has needs.

[bluechipper]

 

First of all, great post!

Second, I think KAT's a 4. And that's based on his inability to handle rough and tumble centers defensively. Team needs a true center.

Third, Rubio in my opinion, not only is our answer at PG, but he could be our third star. Call me crazy, I don't care.

Finally, I think we need to leverage Zach for an elite defending wing. Gotta have that to make the whole machine work. I love LaVine. Love him! But this team has needs.

KAT is a 5, especially in the way the game is played today. There's what? 2 centers that can give him trouble (Cousins and Jokic)? I don't understand the thought that he's a 4 at all.

[Pardon My Dinger]

KAT is a 5, especially in the way the game is played today. There's what? 2 centers that can give him trouble (Cousins and Jokic)? I don't understand the thought that he's a 4 at all.

Everybody beats him down physically. Everybody.

[kab21]

I think it is pretty well established that the Wolves need a larger wing (a 3 and D type) and a 3rd big.

Do you make a splash in FA going after someone like Ibaka or Otto Porter on a max (or close) contract? This would operate on the assumption that there would be limited cap space several years down the road but that is an issue several years away and I believe the Wolves can continue to resign their own players (like KAT and Wiggins) and just move into luxury tax territory. Lavine and/or Dieng would likely have to go at some point though.

 

The draft has a couple of players that fit the Wolves but there are so many small guards at the top limiting the choices for the Wolves. It is possible that they land a 3/4 that can develop into a role player by his 2nd season with upside for more though.

[bluechipper]

 

Everybody beats him down physically. Everybody.

I think it's the other way around.

 

Plus, the guy's 21 years old. He's going to get stronger. He's a center.

[bluechipper]

 

I think it is pretty well established that the Wolves need a larger wing (a 3 and D type) and a 3rd big.

Do you make a splash in FA going after someone like Ibaka or Otto Porter on a max (or close) contract? This would operate on the assumption that there would be limited cap space several years down the road but that is an issue several years away and I believe the Wolves can continue to resign their own players (like KAT and Wiggins) and just move into luxury tax territory. Lavine and/or Dieng would likely have to go at some point though.

 

The draft has a couple of players that fit the Wolves but there are so many small guards at the top limiting the choices for the Wolves. It is possible that they land a 3/4 that can develop into a role player by his 2nd season with upside for more though.

I think they go big in free agency this year. Otto Porter at the max would be target #1 for me.

[BeenHazy]

I would see if the Celtics want to give up the 1-1 plus more for Wiggins.  Boston is getting by with Avery Bradley and Marcus Smart alongside Isaiah Thomas in an undersized backcourt, and Thomas is their only high usage star.  Wiggins and his one-way game would be a great fit there at the 2.  They're dueling for best in the Least now, but legit title contenders next year with Wiggins.

 

Wolves would grab Josh Jackson with the pick and let Thibs turn him into the player that Wiggins apparently doesn't care to be.  Jackson fits the Wolves timeline just fine, while the Celts' Thomas/Crowder/Horford window won't be open as long.  Lavine gets the high-usage wing role.

 

The 1-1 alone isn't enough.  Boston has Brooklyn's first next year as well, but that's too much for them to give up.  They also have LAC protected 1st 2019 (with complications through TOR and MEM) and a 2019 Memphis 1st.  The rights to one of those would balance the deal.

 

The Wolves could then use their own pick, the future pick in the Boston deal, or both in a trade to fill another need.  

 

 

[kab21]

 

I would see if the Celtics want to give up the 1-1 plus more for Wiggins.  Boston is getting by with Avery Bradley and Marcus Smart alongside Isaiah Thomas in an undersized backcourt, and Thomas is their only high usage star.  Wiggins and his one-way game would be a great fit there at the 2.  They're dueling for best in the Least now, but legit title contenders next year with Wiggins.

 

Wolves would grab Josh Jackson with the pick and let Thibs turn him into the player that Wiggins apparently doesn't care to be.  Jackson fits the Wolves timeline just fine, while the Celts' Thomas/Crowder/Horford window won't be open as long.  Lavine gets the high-usage wing role.

 

The 1-1 alone isn't enough.  Boston has Brooklyn's first next year as well, but that's too much for them to give up.  They also have LAC protected 1st 2019 (with complications through TOR and MEM) and a 2019 Memphis 1st.  The rights to one of those would balance the deal.

 

The Wolves could then use their own pick, the future pick in the Boston deal, or both in a trade to fill another need.  

This would be a ballsy move. Trading a potential near elite player (with development) for a similar but unproven #1 overall pick and other good assets.
 

The one thing that makes sense in it is that Lavine is untradeable for a year until teams have seen how he has recovered but Wiggins value is at its highest (so far). This would allow you to solve the undersized wing issue by moving one of them for a pretty good return.

the downside is that it seems like a step in the wrong direction and delays the big improvement of the Wolves by making them younger again. It also ignores the benefit that Wiggins could get defensively if he could play the 2 and guard smaller players more often.

[caninatl04]

 

KAT is a 5, especially in the way the game is played today. There's what? 2 centers that can give him trouble (Cousins and Jokic)? I don't understand the thought that he's a 4 at all.

Two words Tim Duncan

[caninatl04]

 

I think it's the other way around.

 

Plus, the guy's 21 years old. He's going to get stronger. He's a center.

He will get stronger, but he will never be a rim-protecting BIG man.

 

Why do people not like the idea of KAT being the best 4 in the league with the 5 reserved for defense?

[caninatl04]

 

First of all, great post!

Second, I think KAT's a 4. And that's based on his inability to handle rough and tumble centers defensively. Team needs a true center.

Third, Rubio in my opinion, not only is our answer at PG, but he could be our third star. Call me crazy, I don't care.

Finally, I think we need to leverage Zach for an elite defending wing. Gotta have that to make the whole machine work. I love LaVine. Love him! But this team has needs.

You're crazy.  Well, you DID dare me.

I, like most of us on this forum, really, really want Rubio to be a two-way star.  He did have one good month.

 

Sorry, but I don't think he really wants to be in Minnesota, and I don't think the Wolves can contend for anything where, unlike many teams where the crowd gets excited when their PG has a wide open 3-pointer late in the game, the Wolves fans have a pained reaction.

[caninatl04]

 

I would see if the Celtics want to give up the 1-1 plus more for Wiggins.  Boston is getting by with Avery Bradley and Marcus Smart alongside Isaiah Thomas in an undersized backcourt, and Thomas is their only high usage star.  Wiggins and his one-way game would be a great fit there at the 2.  They're dueling for best in the Least now, but legit title contenders next year with Wiggins.

 

Wolves would grab Josh Jackson with the pick and let Thibs turn him into the player that Wiggins apparently doesn't care to be.  Jackson fits the Wolves timeline just fine, while the Celts' Thomas/Crowder/Horford window won't be open as long.  Lavine gets the high-usage wing role.

 

The 1-1 alone isn't enough.  Boston has Brooklyn's first next year as well, but that's too much for them to give up.  They also have LAC protected 1st 2019 (with complications through TOR and MEM) and a 2019 Memphis 1st.  The rights to one of those would balance the deal.

 

The Wolves could then use their own pick, the future pick in the Boston deal, or both in a trade to fill another need.  

Interesting, but not for Josh Jackson.

And any trade involving Andrew Wiggins would have to involve Toronto.

[kab21]

 

He will get stronger, but he will never be a rim-protecting BIG man.

 

Why do people not like the idea of KAT being the best 4 in the league with the 5 reserved for defense?

The role of the rim protecting big man has been reduced so much in the last 5 years that many teams don't even play one. For example the Wolves signed Aldrich to do exactly what you suggested. And Thibs decided that it didn't work and even after Bjelica got hurt they were playing the likes of Payne or Bazz at the 4 instead of putting Aldrich in.

Here is what I want the Wolves to do with KAT. Pair him with a stretch 4 type that is fairly quick and can shoot from the outside. He doesn't have to be great but then the opposing classic rim protecting big man (Jordan, Drummond, Howard, etc...) has to chase KAT around on the perimeter where he (De'andre Jordan) isn't effective at all.